Producer Nutrien sees favorable global potash, nitrogen demand during H1 2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nutrien said global potash demand during H1 2024 has been supported by favorable consumption and low channel inventories in North America and southeast Asia, with global nitrogen being boosted by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions.

In its Q2 earnings release the Canadian fertilizer major said it is also seeing that there are expectations which have been created for record US corn and soybean yields, that have pressured crop prices.

For the potash segment Nutrien said the settlement of contracts with China and India in July is expected to support demand in standard grade markets in the second half of this year.

The producer said that the uptake on the summer fill program it offered in North America has been strong, and as such it has raised full-year global potash shipment forecast from 69 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes.

It further said it expects a relatively balanced market in H2 2024.

The company showed that potash sales volume guidance has been increased from 13.2 million tonnes to 13.8 million tonnes due to expectations for higher global demand in 2024.

It noted that the range does reflects the potential for Canadian rail strike in the second half which would have a relatively short duration.

Looking at the situation with global nitrogen, Nutrien said Chinese urea export restrictions have been extended into the second half and natural gas-related supply reductions could continue to impact nitrogen operating rates in Egypt and Trinidad.

The company said US nitrogen inventories were estimated to be below average levels entering H2 2024, contributing to strong engagement the summer fill programs.

Nitrogen sales volume guidance has been narrowed from 10.7 million tonnes to 11.1 million tonnes as Nutrien continues to expect higher operating rates at their North American and Trinidad plants,

It is also counting on a growth in sales of upgraded products such as urea and nitrogen solutions.

While end user demand has taken its typical summer slump, Nutrien said they expect buying for crop inputs in North America to remain strong in Q3 as growers aim to maintain optimal plant health and yield potential.

With that view it noted that good affordability for potash and nitrogen will be supportive of the upcoming fall application rates

“Crop input demand remains strong, and we raised our full-year outlook for global potash demand due to healthy engagement in all key markets,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien president and CEO.

“Our upstream production assets and downstream retail businesses in North America and Australia have performed well in 2024.”