Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories
ICIS Editorial
13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals
pessimism persists as downturn could last to
2030
For many players within Latin America
petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more
stop on the long downturn journey as, for
many, the market’s rebalancing will only take
place towards the end of the decade.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PE demand could
finally improve from Q2
onwards
Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand
should start slowly in 2025, but it could
take a decisive turn for the better from Q2
onwards.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PP supply to
remain long amid squeezed
margins
Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected
to remain oversupplied in the first half of
2025, with producers’ margins likely to
remain squeezed.
OUTLOOK
’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in
2025, giving chemicals a shot at
recovery
For all the talk about a soft landing for the
US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid
landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than
2% for the fifth consecutive year as the
labor market remains healthy and consumer
spending resilient.
OUTLOOK ’25: US NGL demand to rebound
moderately
Though demand for US natural gas liquids
(NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025
due to a general inventory glut, various
industry and environmental conditions have
feedstocks poised for a moderate demand
rebound in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will
drive US ethylene market entering new
year
Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene
market heading into 2025 as it enters an
unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as
10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going
down for planned maintenance during Q1 and
Q2.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BD poised for demand,
export growth as production stabilizes,
grows
US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at
the start of 2025 as outages which limited
production in 2024 are resolved, while both
exports and demand are expected to grow in
the new year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PE to see both
demand extremes between high cost food-grade
PCR and low cost PIR
US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets
continue to see extreme disparity between
sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive
grades of both post-consumer and
post-industrial recycled high-density
polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled
low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is
expected to persist into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PP navigating
mediocre growth and
oversupply
US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be
relatively less volatile in 2025, following a
year where prices changed every month. Higher
propylene inventory levels and improved
supply expected to stabilize supply/demand
dynamics.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ACN demand weakness
to continue amid
oversupply
The three-year demand decline in US
acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market
growth to support favorable rates; container
market readies for port labor issues,
tariffs
Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker
market is likely to support favorable rates
in 2025, while the container shipping market
could see upward pressure from possible labor
strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and
proposed tariffs on Chinese imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Lackluster US aromatics
demand, rising inventories pressure benzene
and toluene
After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have
declined through the latter half of the year,
due to soft derivative demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing
weak demand, overcapacity
The US styrene market enters the new year
facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low
operating rates. With a light maintenance
season ahead, the market’s fate will be
driven largely by derivative demand, which
continues to face challenging headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PS, EPS demand to
remain soft
Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to
remain soft into the next year with weak
downstream markets, polymer recycling
regulations and overall expectations of a
smaller growth in the economy for 2025
compared with 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Ample LatAm PS supply
meets poor demand
The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market
will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the
back of weak demand across the region
combined with plentiful supply.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PET demand expected
higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain
risks
Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate
(PET) should increase in 2025 if lower
inflation and interest rates drive
consumption with stronger growth expected in
the second half of the year, but the
possibilities of a trade war or supply
disruption in upstream purified terephthalate
acid (PTA) remain concerns.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PET prices
pressured by economic challenges, tariff
shifts
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in
Latin America are expected to soften in H1
2025, driven by changes in import tariffs,
lower Asia prices and easing freight rates.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BDO demand to
strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy,
tariffs may be headwinds
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to
strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates, but
possible tariffs and changes to electric
vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US caustic soda
trajectory to be impacted by PVC length,
tariffs
The US caustic soda market in the latter half
of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply
disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on
the chlorine side of the molecule.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PVC faces oversupply,
export challenges
The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set
to face significant headwinds in 2025,
entering the year with abundant inventories,
expanded production capacity and constrained
export opportunities. The confluence of these
factors points to a challenging landscape for
producers as they navigate both domestic and
international market pressures.
OUTLOOK ’25: Latin America PVC market
faces challenges from tariffs and instability
in H1
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due
to various regional challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US soda ash facing
subdued demand
US soda ash is facing subdued demand going
into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PET expects strong
beverage demand amid international
risk
Though the build up to 2025 has been
tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both
optimism and distrust that the year will keep
to its original promise.
OUTLOOK ’25: US nylon demand weak
amid manufacturing
contraction
Demand declines in US nylon markets which
started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2
2025. Demand was weak in multiple application
sectors including automotive, industrial,
textiles, electrical and electronics. The
only application sectors that performed well
were packaging and medical.
OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone
production to remain curtailed on soft
demand
US phenol demand will likely remain soft and
weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as
expectations for a rebound are tempered.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MMA anticipating new
supply in new year
US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are
trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics
amid heightened volatility going into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ABS, PC look to
remain pressured with weakened
markets
Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to
remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024
with industries like automotive, household
appliances and housing markets not expecting
to see increases.
OUTLOOK ’25: US polyurethanes brace
for Asia overcapacity and US weak
demand
The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU)
products in the US is marked by the
expectation of a very slow economic recovery,
constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity
of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and
polyols built in Asia, possible labor
strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing
issues with the Red Sea’s route.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PG, UPR face pressure
from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand
boost remains
While recent sharp declines in propylene have
led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG)
in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been
moderated by buyer interest in winter
applications.
OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM
exports expected stronger, domestic demand
could rise
US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer
(VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving
after production outages resolved, while
tight global supply is expected to boost
export demand and lower inflation may lead to
stronger domestic demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PA remains
sufficiently supplied even with capacity
reduction
US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will
tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a
major domestic producer. Supply is expected
to be sufficient to meet current demand
levels, but any future demand improvement is
likely to require support from increased
imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MA facing muted
demand expectations
US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered
expectations for a rebound in demand going
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected
higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1
supply
Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and
ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025
on restocking and if lower inflation drives
consumption, but this may be met with tight
supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance.
OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream
propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant
closure
US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are
expected to be balanced in the first half of
2025 with price movements tracking upstream
propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue
facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market
next year is the decision by Shell to shutter
its production facility in the Netherlands in
the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US melamine to see
consequences from US antidumping
ruling
The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty
(CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14
February 2024 against melamine imports from
Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands,
Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an
investigation from the United States
International Trade Commission (US ITC) that
is slated to impact the melamine industry at
large in 2025.
OUTLOOK
’25: US President Trump could move quickly on
tariffs, deregulation
As US president, Donald Trump could quickly
proceed on campaign promises to impose
tariffs and cut regulations after taking
office on 20 January.
OUTLOOK ’25: US base oils seek to
manage new normal amid oversupply, demand
deterioration
Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand
is likely to persist into a third year — this
year with less optimism for significant
domestic demand recovery in automotive and
headwinds from additional supply entering the
global marketplace.
OUTLOOK ’25: Squeezed import margins
leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to
supply disruptions in H1
Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids
and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply
disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a
sharp increase in feedstock costs across the
oil palm complex over the last quarter and
sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the
wider market.
OUTLOOK ’25: US H1 glycerine markets
to remain relatively tight amid squeezed
biodiesel margins, import
bottlenecks
US H1 glycerine markets are expected to
remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated
weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME)
production in Q1 stemming from pending
changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives
against the backdrop of sustained import
logistics bottlenecks create short-term
supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine
supplies.
OUTLOOK ’25: US epoxy resins
grappling with duty, logistics, demand
issues
US epoxy resins players are trying to
formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of
duty investigations and guarded sentiment on
demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US oxo-alcohols,
acrylates, plasticizers see falling
feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes
potential tariffs
Following declines in feedstock prices in the
autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols,
acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face
demand headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US etac supply concerns
emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more
stable but feedstock costs
fall
After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp
drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate
(butac) and some glycol ethers have led to
volatility in US spot and contract prices in
the latter half of the year. While notable
declines in upstream costs have not been seen
in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are
ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on
material produced in Mexico may impact
domestic availability in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Brazil ethanol
production strong; market watches forex,
Combustivel do Futuro,
RenovaBio
The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust
domestic production and evolving global
energy policies. As Brazil continues to
position itself as one of the leaders in
renewable energy, initiatives like
Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set
to play a crucial role in driving growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply
expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up
mid-year
US methanol supply is tight heading into the
new year, a situation that has been offset by
lackluster demand, but demand is expected to
pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates fuel
consumer spending and the housing market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Gradual demand recovery
anticipated for US TiO2 by
H2
North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand
is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2
2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve
continues to ease monetary policy.
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