Firms shut in nearly 30% of US Gulf production output on Helene

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Companies have shut in nearly 30% of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane Helene, which meteorologists expect will strengthen into a powerful Category 4 storm before making landfall in a sparsely populated region in northwestern Florida on Thursday.

The following table summarizes the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).

	Total	% of US Gulf
Oil, bbl/day	511,000	29.18%
Gas, million cubic feet/day	313	16.85%

Source: BSEE

	Total	% of US Gulf
Platforms evacuated	17	4.58%
Rigs evacuated	1	20%

Source: BSEE

Given Helene’s eastern path, Shell said it is ramping up production at Appomattox to normal levels. Shell has started restoring production at Stones.

On Monday, bp said it had started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms. It is curtailing production its Argos and Atlantis platforms.

The meteorological firm AccuWeather is warning that Helene could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the Big Bend region in northwestern Florida.

A Category 4 storm qualifies as a major hurricane and has maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 130 miles/hour (209 km/hour) under the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

“The impacts from Helene will be widespread – not just confined to locations near landfall in the Florida Panhandle,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. “The storm surge will be life-threatening across the Florida Panhandle and southward to near Tampa.”

Based on the current forecast, Helene will not make landfall near Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Tampa hosts corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations.

Nonetheless, Helene will disrupt operations at the port of Tampa Bay.

The US Coast Guard set port condition YANKEE, under which gale-force winds could disrupt maritime operations in the next 24 hours.

Railroad company CSX plans to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday.

Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays.

Helene could threaten Panama City, Florida, where Kraton operates a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery.

Tall oil is a feedstock for the production of fatty acids, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Helene’s path is too far east to threaten Pensacola, which is home to some nylon and thermoset resin plants.

Helene is moving on the opposite side of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Those two states are home to most of the refineries, petrochemical plants and LNG capacity of the US. Operations at those plants will not be threatened by Helene.

The following map shows the forecasts path of Helene.

Source: National Hurricane Center

THREATS FROM THE STORM
AccuWeather is warning of catastrophic inland flooding from northern Georgia to western North Carolina. Strong winds could knock down power lines and cause outages that could last for days or even weeks.

The major city of Atlanta, Georgia, is at risk of significant power outages and flooding.

Much of Florida, Georgia and eastern Alabama are at risk of tornados on Thursday. On Friday, the threat shifts to the Carolinas, southern Virginia, eastern Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky.

Thumbnail shows Hurricane Helene. Image by the National Hurricane Center.