Corrected: US imports record setting 492,101 tonnes of plastic scrap in 2024 as tariffs loom

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US has maintained its status as a net importer of plastic scrap, bringing in a record volume of 492,101 tonnes in 2024 according to recently released data from the US International Trade Commission (ITC).

Leading the way, imports of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) scrap have broken their own record, at 250,961 tonnes in 2024, making up roughly 49% of plastic scrap imports.

At the same time, PET scrap exports to Mexico reached record highs, coming in at 46,307 tonnes in 2024, a 32% increase year on year (YoY).

As Canada remains the top trade partner for US plastic scrap, it remains to be seen what will happen should the US continue to impose trade tariffs and duties on imported goods.

• Canada remains largest scrap trade partner amid tariff threat
• PET scrap imported into US increased 23% YoY
• PET scrap exported to Mexico increased 32% YoY

ANNUAL DATA BREAK RECORDS, QUARTERLY DATA SOFTENS
Full year 2024 trade data from the US Census Bureau shows US imports of plastic scrap – noted by the Harmonized System (HS) code 3915 – have increased 10% YoY.

Plastic scrap imports include items such as used bottles but also other forms of recycled feedstock such as purge, leftover pairings and flake material.

Recently, the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) issued statements to several importers of PET flake that the HS code 3907 which designates PET resin should be used instead, thus it is expected the US actually imported more PET flake than represented in these numbers.

Throughout 2024, stagnant PET bottle collection volumes, paired with increasing bottle exports, led to a need for imported PET scrap material. This was further supported by the cost proposition of cheaper imported flake.

As a result, recycled flake imports are seen as both a help and harm to the broader US recycling market.

When broken down by country, Canada remains the leader of PET scrap imports, followed by Thailand, Ecuador and Japan. Canada continues to give up market share despite volumes increasing 2% YoY.

This pales in comparison to the rapid export volume growth from Thailand, Japan and Ecuador, at an increase of 68%, 75%, and 29% YoY, respectively.

Market participants confirmed they saw a notable rise in imported recycled resin activity from Asia and Latin America, particularly due to their cost-competitive position when it comes to feedstock, labor, and facility costs related to recycling.

Asian countries now account for more than 44% of PET scrap imports, compared to the 26% market share from Canada and Mexico. In 2023, the Canada/Mexico market share was at 34%, and was as high as 44% in 2022, showing a complete reversal over the last few years.

Imports of all other subcategories of plastic scrap, including polyethylene (PE), polystyrene (PS), and polyvinylchloride (PVC), were relatively steady.

When looking at PE scrap imports, they decreased marginally in 2024 (1%), and Canada/Mexico remain the largest exporters to the US at 69% and 18% of PE scrap imports respectively.

Despite the strong annual data, Q4 data individually did show some weakness. In comparison to Q4 2023, Q4 2024 was down 7% as 2023 data was unusually strong.

Scrap imports typically slow at the end of the year as players reduce inventory ahead of year end accounting, thus it comes as no surprise that Q4 imports were down 6% compared to Q3 imports.

When looking at Q4 specifically, PET scrap imports  were down 16% compared to Q3 and down 9% compared to Q4 2023.

For the full breakdown of US plastic scrap imports, click here to see the latest numbers.

TOTAL EXPORTS DOWN, PET EXPORTS UP
Though total US plastic scrap exports fell 2% in 2024, exports of PET scrap, largely in the form of bales, jumped 24% YoY.

Mexico in particular continues to be a key end market for US PET bale material, making up 57% of the 81,018 tonnes exported. This resulted in 46,307 tonnes of material being sent to Mexico, an increase of 32% YoY.

While the US has always exported a portion of domestic PET bale material to other countries, exports to Mexico surged over the last year.

This growing trade relationship is largely attributed to new capacity in Mexico, paired with strong local demand which has elevated local bale prices. Mexican recyclers have been purchasing US PET bales as a lower-cost option with higher availability.

Exports of US bales to Mexico – particularly from the southern areas of the US such as Texas and parts of California – continue to challenge domestic recyclers who struggle to secure adequate volumes of bale feedstock.

As export demand continues put upwards pressure on bale pricing, local recyclers find themselves stuck between rising feedstock costs and very competitive import virgin and recycled pricing, thus unable to pass along those increased costs.

PET scrap exports were also sent to Malaysia and Vietnam, at 12% and 7% of PET exports respectively.

Overall, exports of other types of plastic scrap continue to slow, following the Chinese National Sword and Basel Convention adoption several years ago.

Total plastic scrap exports in Q4 were down QoQ and YoY.

PE continues to be a leading polymer type for US plastic scrap exports, representing 35% of total plastic scrap exports. India receives over a quarter of US PE scrap material followed by Canada at 16%.

For the full breakdown of US plastic scrap exports, click here to see the latest numbers.

TARIFFS BETWEEN CANADA, MEXICO TO IMPACT RECYCLING
A tariff decision on imports from Mexico and Canada could come as soon as next Tuesday, 4 March.

From a bale or flake feedstock perspective, some northern and southern US recyclers will source material from Canada and Mexico, which would result in elevated feedstock pricing either from the tariffs themselves or the resultant increase in domestic feedstock demand.

On the finished post-consumer recycled (PCR) flake and resin side, US customers who purchase materials from Canadian or Mexican recyclers may instead seek volumes from US recyclers which could support some struggling players or further strain players whose facilities are already running at high capacity.

Retaliatory tariffs from either country could harm exports of US plastic scrap material. Canada and Mexico were the top countries for plastic scrap exports – 34% and 21%, respectively.

Waste and recycling has always been a regional business, and any barriers that prevent regional dynamics could lead to negative consequences for recycling market viability.