HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) told the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) in testimony on Tuesday that there is an ongoing need for the freight rail industry to shift its focus toward customer service and growth. The industry group said the fertilizer segment has long relied on rail service for the efficient and safe transport of its products, but it has struggled with declining service quality, increasing rates and a lack of attention to customer needs. “The fertilizer industry is heavily reliant on rail and cannot afford to see continued stagnation in freight rail service,” said Ryan Bowley, TFI vice president of government affairs. “Unfortunately, we have seen freight volumes plateau, services decline and rates skyrocket.” TFI said that their testimony comes at a pivotal time for the Class I railroads as the STB’s inquiry into the rail industry’s growth potential highlights a disturbing trend, which is that freight rail carloads have been in decline since 2008. Trucking and other transportation sectors have consistently expanded their capacity. At the same time that rail employment has dropped, and carloads have declined, rail rates have surged. TFI said between 2005 and 2017, rates for transporting critical farm inputs like anhydrous ammonia increased by over 200%. It noted that such price hikes, combined with inconsistent service, have made it difficult for fertilizer companies to meet the just-in-time delivery demands of farmers across the country. “These rising costs and service failures are particularly troubling for industries like ours, which depend on rail to move bulk products safely,” Bowley said. “Our members regularly face delays, held shipments and escalating rates, often without any recourse. It is clear that a new approach is needed.” TFI highlighted the need for the rail industry to pivot toward a customer-focused, growth-driven model that balances profitability with service quality as the industry’s adoption of Precision Scheduled Railroading has led to deep cuts in staff and equipment and adding to service issues. The group did praise recent moves by the STB to increase oversight of rail service and pricing, including the implementation of faster emergency service orders. It did stress the importance of additional reforms such as expanding access to reciprocal switching, a policy that would allow shippers to switch between competing rail carriers more easily. “The rail industry should be actively competing for freight, not relying on captive customers to drive revenue. We need a system where railroads are not just collecting more revenue from a shrinking base but are growing their business by serving more customers with better service,” Bowley said.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US ammonia-to-power solutions provider Amogy has announced a partnership with HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, POSCO Holdings, Seoul National University and the American Bureau of Shipping to explore the feasibility of an innovative offshore ammonia cracking solution to deliver low-cost, accessible clean hydrogen fuel. Amogy said under this partnership, HD Korea Shipbuilding will design the ammonia supply system and integrate it into the overall system, and it will provide its ammonia-cracking technology. Seoul National University will contribute expertise in process design and simulation, while POSCO Holdings intends to harness its proprietary cracking process design technology to optimize the systems needed for ship application. The American Bureau of Shipping will oversee certification of the design as the class society. Amogy said ammonia, a hydrogen carrier, offers a more cost-effective and convenient alternative to liquefied hydrogen due to its established storage and transport infrastructure. Additionally, with energy density 2.7 times greater than hydrogen, ammonia is emerging as an optimal carbon-free fuel for the maritime industry. Further, the company said their technology unlocks the potential of ammonia as a hydrogen carrier by leveraging state-of-the-art catalyst materials to crack ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen at lower reaction temperatures with high durability thereby reducing heating and maintenance requirements. “We are excited to join forces with this esteemed consortium to develop an innovative offshore ammonia cracking solution,” said Seonghoon Woo, Amogy CEO. “This partnership marks a pivotal advancement in leveraging ammonia to achieve net-zero emissions.”

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The likely increase in Brazil’s import tariffs for dozens of chemicals will start improving beleaguered domestic producers’ poor margins even though petrochemicals prices remain low, according to an analyst at US credit rating Fitch. Marcelo Pappiani, credit analyst for Brazilian chemicals producers, added that imports into Brazil and the wider Latin America remain high and are likely to continue that way as China and the US work through their overcapacities. Despite that, prices have stabilized, albeit at low levels, and “the worst of this downturn” seems to have subsided, said Pappiani. The two largest chemicals producers in Brazil, polymers major Braskem and chlor-alkali and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer Unipar, are covered by Fitch. The two companies have posted several quarters of poor financial results on the back of low prices and competition from overseas producers. TARIFFS UPBrazil’s chemicals producers – represented by trade group Abiquim, in which Braskem has a commanding voice – were hoping the Brazilian cabinet would increase import tariffs on dozens of chemicals in September. However, there have been contradictory reports on this, with some expecting the hike to be approved as soon as Wednesday (18 September), while other reports citing government sources have said the decision would be pushed back to December. The increases would follow a public consultation earlier this year in which Abiquim as well as individual companies proposed increasing tariffs in more than 100 products, most of them from 12.6% to 20%. Braskem is, at the same time, partly owned by the country’s state-owned energy major Petrobras, so the Abiquim/Braskem lobbying tandem tends to find open ears in the corridors of power in Brasilia under the current government, which has committed to expand the industrial sector. Pressure not to increase import tariffs has also been strong from other sectors, not least plastic transformers represented by Abiplast, but the producers’ proposals are expected to have won the day. “Petrochemicals prices in Brazil and the wider Latin America seem to have reached the bottom and we are seeing slightly less pressure on companies, despite of course still imports coming into the region in big numbers, from China, the wider Asia and the US,” said Pappiani. “Companies have lobbied the government strongly for an increase in import tariffs as well as other measures to prop up the chemicals industry. Import tariffs seem set to increase and that should soon make Brazilian producers more competitive.” Pappiani is in no doubt higher import tariffs in several chemicals – when around half of the Brazilian industry’s demand is covered imports – are likely to translate into higher prices for consumers, precisely the reasoning used by those who oppose the hike. “President Lula has said he wants to foster the chemicals sector and has met on several occasions with CEOs from the industry as well Abiquim,” said Pappiani. “But, of course, consumers will end up paying for higher import tariffs – this happens in all economic sectors, not just petrochemicals, of course.” COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH TARIFFSAs well as higher prices for consumers, those opposing the hike in import tariffs argue that Brazilian petrochemicals producers should speed up their modernization and diversification, so they are not as dependent on government policy for their profitability. Pappiani said Braskem is a well-managed company with international assets which would make it a profitable enterprise even without government measures which prop up its competitiveness in its domestic market. However, critics of protectionist measures continue their campaign against the increase in import tariffs, although according to most analysts the dice has been cast. On Tuesday, the president of Abiplast published a charged article in Brazil’s daily Estadao in which he wondered if Braskem would always need state indirect help to keep afloat, even if its second largest shareholder is Petrobras, which in theory should make accessing cheaper raw materials easier. “Why are foreign suppliers of petrochemical products able to be more competitive in their exports to Brazil, even bearing the costs of transportation, logistics and exposure to exchange rate variations? Over the past 40 years, we have exported many of these products to China; if the Chinese (and other countries) become competitive by importing Brazilian oil, why can’t Brazilian [petrochemicals] producers become competitive?” said Jose Ricardo Roriz Coelho. “The exaggerated protection of the few petrochemical companies in Brazil results in them directing investments to countries where they face greater competition in order not to lose market share. Europe, which is not competitive due to its lack of raw materials for petrochemicals, has chosen to add value further down the production chain by importing resins from countries that are more efficient in production. “Structural problems, such as insufficient supply of inputs, cannot be solved with short-term remedies. The debate on new tariffs and the production chain is crucial,” concluded Roriz. Indeed, the prospect of high import tariffs being approved as soon as this week has already propped up Braskem’s market capitalization in the past few weeks. On 13 September, for instance, the company’s stock rose by nearly 8% as investors expect an imminent decision on the increase in import tariffs, according to a report by InfoMoney. The increase in import tariffs could automatically translate into higher earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Braskem, to the tune of $300 million/year, according to some analysts. Under current business conditions, that would be roughly the same EBITDA amount the producer posted in the second quarter of this year. “In our view, this additional tariff would help contain Braskem’s cash burn in recent quarters. The company would then be better positioned to capture a future cycle of increases in petrochemical spreads,” said analysts at XP cited by InfoMoney. Front page picture: Facilities operated by Brazilian polymers major Braskem in the state of Sao Paulo Source: Braskem Interview article by Jonathan Lopez 

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Petrochemical markets are likely to remain depressed while China and other countries continue to add significant capacity, unless big wave of closures and demand improvement help to achieve balance. Global capacity additions far outstrip demand growth China, Middle East, US likely to continue expansions China drove the petrochemical supercycle, but no longer China chemicals demand growth likely only 2-4%/year Prospect of global deflation Europe can focus on specialty chemicals, other niches In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis, ICIS senior consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

Ursula von der Leyen announces key energy roles for Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands Teresa Ribera will oversee delivery of the bloc’s Green Deal, with former Danish energy minister Dan Jorgensen to take the energy brief Parliamentary hearing needed to confirm candidates in post LONDON (ICIS)–European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen named former Danish energy minister Dan Jorgensen as her pick for the energy brief on 17 September, as she unveiled the structure of the incoming College of Commissioners. The role is likely to work closely with big green portfolios for Spain and the Netherlands, as von der Leyen presented a leaner, more cross-cutting college than in the previous mandate. Spain’s Teresa Ribera, one of six executive vice-presidents, will be responsible for a “clean, just and competitive transition”. Her work will involve ensuring the EU stays on track to meet its goals under the bloc’s Green Deal and proceed with both decarbonising and industrialising the economy in parallel. Ribera has been Spain’s ecological transition minister since 2018, a role which covers both energy and environmental policy. She was a key figure in finalising a number of energy files, including the electricity market reforms, when Spain held the rotating EU presidency in the second half of 2023. Ribera will also pick up responsibility for competition policy from outgoing Danish commissioner Margrethe Vestager. Current Dutch commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will retain the climate brief he has held since August 2023, becoming commissioner for “climate, net-zero and clean growth”. His responsibilities will include climate diplomacy and decarbonisation, alongside implementation and adaptation. The former Dutch finance minister will also pick up responsibility for taxation. Jorgensen’s work will focus on lowering energy prices, investment in clean energy and cutting dependencies. His brief will also cover housing, which covers aspects including energy efficiency. Von der Leyen told reporters that Jorgensen’s broad experience as an energy minister made him a good fit for the role. She pointed to topics including the energy crisis, building an energy union and lessening Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels as key agenda items, alongside deepening Europe’s interconnections and supply corridors. Von der Leyen also said Jorgensen was well suited to continue work on joint energy procurement, which she called “one of the top topics to increase the market power of the [EU] on the global energy market”. Jorgensen was Denmark’s minister for climate, energy and utilities from 2019-2022, before he became minister for development cooperation and global climate policy. The commissioners-designate must be approved by the European Parliament before they take up their roles. Von der Leyen said it was impossible to say when the process would be complete but she hoped it would be soon. The initial goal was 1 November, but that may slip. The parliament can accept or reject the whole Commission, and has previously used its role to replace certain candidates and demand adjustments to portfolios. COORDINATION IS KEY Asked about overlap between Ribera’s and Hoekstra’s briefs, von der Leyen told reporters that all commissioners and executive vice-presidents would need to work closely together. “You cannot put reality in little boxes and separate the different topics from each other. “Reality: everything is intertwined and interlinked,” she said, stressing that coordination and cooperation were paramount. Von der Leyen also cut an additional layer of commission vice-presidents in the new college, which she said meant a “leaner structure, more interactive and interlinked”. CZECH DEVELOPMENTS Josef Sikela, a contender for the energy job, will instead become commissioner for international partnerships. Sikela was well regarded for his work during the energy price crisis, when the Czech presidency convened multiple energy councils in the second half of 2022 to stabilise the situation. His work will involve oversight of the €300bn Global Gateway programme, which invests in infrastructure abroad. Von der Leyen said the role had links with energy and trade, pointing to examples of working with African countries on renewable energy or critical raw materials to help underpin the bloc’s competitiveness.

LONDON (ICIS)–Hopes of a recovery in Germany’s economy are fading, think tank ZEW said on Tuesday, as its economic sentiment indicator fell for the third month in a row. The research group’s September economic sentiment indicator declined by 15.6 points from August to 3.6 points, while its assessment of the current situation in Germany was down by 7.2 points to -84.5 points, the lowest since May 2020. Both indicators also fell sharply in August from the previous month. The economic sentiment indicator began its 2024 downward trend in July. “The hope for a swift improvement in the economic situation is visibly fading,” said ZEW president Achim Wambach. “In the latest survey, we once again observe a noticeable decline in economic expectations for Germany.” The outlook for the eurozone was also gloomy, with the September economic sentiment indicator down by 8.6 points to 9.3 points. The assessment of the current situation in the eurozone fell by 8 points from August, remaining firmly in negative territory at -40.4 points.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which suggests OPEC+ risks losing control of oil markets. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. I did the same exercise on global ethylene markets almost exactly a year ago as I do in today’s post. This makes me wonder why there is talk of early signs of a global recovery in olefins and derivative markets. Based on the new calculations, what would it take to return global operating rates to their very healthy 1992-2023 average of 88%? Assuming global production, which is about the same as demand, stays unchanged from our base case, global capacity would have to grow by an average of around 2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 6.2m tonnes a year. This implies capacity closures elsewhere to get to the 2m tonnes a year of 2024-2030 capacity growth. Global capacity would need to grow at an average 1% per year to achieve a 2024-2030 operating rate of 88%. This would compare with the 1992-2023 average of 4%. One might argue that we have underestimated global demand given the likelihood of a loosening cycle by the Fed, perhaps a big dose of Chinese economic stimulus, and booming economies in the developing world such as India’s. But what happens in the rest of the world is less consequence compared with events in China. Today’s second chart – showing China’s percentage shares of global demand for the major ethylene derivatives in 1992 (at the start of the Chemicals Supercycle) and by the end of this year – underlines the disproportionate role that China has come to play in driving global consumption: In 1992, from a 22% of the global population, China’s average share of global demand across these ethylene derivatives was 6%. China’s share of global demand is forecast to reach 40% from only an 18% share of the global population by the end of 2024. The Economist wrote in its 7 September issue that the real Chinese economic picture may be bleaker than is commonly painted. “The official [Chinese government] numbers show that the GDP growth rate has reverted to pre-pandemic level, despite the moribund housing industry and low investment in infrastructure,” wrote the magazine “This is a risible claim, says Logan Wright of Rhodium Group, a consulting firm. ‘The broader problem is simply that the GDP data have stopped bearing any resemblance to economic reality,’ he explains. My ICIS colleague, Kevin Swift, has looked at disagreements over China’s population level. In the blog’s 30 August post, he wrote: “Demographer Yi Fuxian at the University of Wisconsin has questioned assumptions about current Chinese population and the likely path forward. He examined China’s demographic data and found clear and frequent discrepancies. These should parallel each other, and they do not. “Yi posits that China population in 2020 was 1.29bn, not 1.42bn, an undercount of over 130m.” If China’s population was smaller than commonly assumed in 2020, so perhaps was its chemicals demand, making today’s global oversupply worse. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Energy (DOE) has announced a conditional commitment for up to $1.559 billion to Wabash Valley Resources to help finance a commercial-scale waste-to-ammonia production facility using carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology. The government funding would be part of a total investment of $2.4 billion that Wabash Valley Resources would secure for the project through private investment. Located in West Terre Haute, Indiana, the project is being planned to produce 500,000 tonnes of anhydrous ammonia annually and permanently sequestering 1.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Officials said it will have the potential to be the world’s first, carbon-negative ammonia production facility and that the company would be repurposing an industrial gasifier to utilize petroleum coke. This will be the US’ first efforts to utilize petroleum coke to produce ammonia and store the associated emissions via permanent geologic sequestration. Wabash Valley Resources said it is their intention to demonstrate a commercially and environmentally viable end-use alternative for petroleum coke, which is a waste product generated during the oil refining process. Officials said this project would play a critical role in securing domestic fertilizer supply for the region commonly known as the Corn Belt, contributing to both food security and climate goals. This low-carbon ammonia would be cost-competitive compared to existing ammonia imports, helping to drive down costs for local businesses and consumers. It was noted that while ammonia fertilizer is a crucial element of the US agricultural system, its production is a significant contributor to climate change. Globally, the manufacturing of the nutrient accounts for 1% to 2% of all carbon dioxide emissions. Through this project, Wabash Valley Resources is striving to reduce the agricultural industry’s emissions. In addition to its environmental benefits, the project is expected to create 500 construction jobs and 125 operations jobs.