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Acrylate Esters27-Jan-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–European oxo-alcohols and
derivatives markets have been slow to start up
in the new year as familiar factors suppress
consumption.
Players were hoping for reasonable restocking
activity this month, following the destocking
period that took place in late Q4 2024, but
spot activity has been below expectations for
many players down the value chain.
Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter Marion
Boakye speaks to acrylate esters reporter
Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers reporter
Cameron Birch about conditions down the
oxo-alcohols value chain.
Ethylene27-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 24 January.
Hard freeze to hit chem plants on US
Gulf Coast, threatens
operations
Temperatures along the US Gulf Coast should
fall well below freezing later in the week
and remain there for a prolonged stretch,
threatening operations at chemical plants and
refineries.
US President Trump proposes no
tariffs on first day in
office
US President Donald Trump proposed no new
tariffs on his first day of office, and
instead instructed his administration to
investigate the nation’s trade deficit and
other areas of trade policy.
INSIGHT: US tariffs slower to
materialize as Trump assumes the US
Presidency
A US Presidential inauguration day packed
with fresh legislation saw few of the
expected moves on tariffs and trade policy.
UPDATE: US Gulf Coast chemical plants
reel from cold snap
Cold weather in the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday
is expected to disrupt petrochemicals
operations in Texas and Louisiana as
companies take preventive measures.
INSIGHT: Trump’s first-day orders lay
groundwork for future
tariffs
US President Donald Trump did not propose any
new tariffs on his first day in office, but
he did issue an executive order that calls
for his administration to conduct the
investigations needed to impose them under
several sections of the law – in many cases,
repeating the same playbook Trump used during
his first term in office.
UPDATE: US freeze shuts numerous chem
plants, major ports
Winter storm Enzo, which caused a hard freeze
along the US Gulf Coast, led to widespread
shutdowns among chemical plants and
refineries.
INSIGHT: Trump’s moratorium on
federal wind projects may have little effect
on epoxy
The moratorium on federal permits for wind
projects will likely have little effect on
the US industry and on the epoxy resins it
consumes because most turbines are built on
private land.
US ExxonMobil may build cracker, PE
plant in Texas
ExxonMobil may build an ethane cracker and
polyethylene (PE) plant near Corpus Christi,
Texas, the company said in an application for
a tax break.
Speciality Chemicals27-Jan-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top
stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended
24 January.
Eurozone private sector
returns to growth in January as inflation
heats up
Private sector activity in the eurozone
returned to a growth footing for the first
time in nearly half a year in January, with
an expanding service sector counterbalancing
stronger but still contractionary
manufacturing.
Europe phenol market
squeezed by low demand, high energy costs in
Q1
The European phenol market has had a tough
start to 2025, with the outlook for demand
weak for the first half of the year and the
specter of growing energy costs challenging
margins.
Eastern Europe
colourless PET bottle bale prices rise as
availability tightens
Colder weather means less polyethylene
terephthalate (PET) beverage bottle
consumption, and as winter grips Europe, many
PET recyclers expect feedstock bale
availability to tighten during Q1.
US
tariffs slower to materialize as Trump
assumes the US Presidency
US Presidential inauguration day packed with
fresh legislation saw few of the expected
moves on tariffs and trade policy.
Europe PE/PP 2025
contract talks see buyers and sellers
practice caution
Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP)
contracts talks for 2025 have seen players in
Europe adopt a cautious outlook.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
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Polyethylene27-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to
see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical
Connections by John Richardson.
Donald Rumsfeld’s famous comments about “known,
unknowns” and “known, knowns” remains useful
(let’s leave aside “unknown, unknowns” for the
time being).
Let’s apply his comments to high-density
polyethylene (HDPE) as we try to answer the
question of whether the US can retain the
strong position it has enjoyed in China over
the last three years.
See today’s post in full here with the summary
as follows:
A “known, unknown” is that nobody has a
clue about the outcome of US trade policies
towards. So, prepare for anything from improved
China/US trading relationships to a full-blown
trade war and anything in between these two
extremes.
A “known, known” is that the US has over
the last three years emerged as a winner in
HDPE exports to China during what is at least a
medium- term (this a second “known, known”, I
believe) Chinese economic slowdown and the
country’s rising HDPE self-sufficiency. This
has been at the expense of Saudi Arabia, Iran
and South Korea etc., as we can see from
today’s main chart. Saudi Arabia’s sales
turnover in China was down by an estimated
$2.3bn in 2022-2024 versus 2019-2021. Iran was
1.8bn lower and South Korea 0.52bn lower. In
contrast, the US was nearly a billion dollars
in the black.
We thus need a range of scenarios on our
first “known, unknown” about how different US
trade policy outcomes could reshape global HDPE
trade flows and sales turnover in China,
But another “known, unknown” is the extent
to which lower Chinese import tariffs on US
HDPE from February 2020 onwards has led to the
US being a winner versus its feedstock
advantages. Since the Evergrande Turning Point,
its feedstock advantages over the Middle East
as a whole have been slight (although Saudi
ethane costs have gone up substantially in
recent years and are reported to have gone up
again this month), but huge over Northeast Asia
and Southeast Asia. Further, we don’t know the
degree to which the mix of grades exported to
China has also played a role. China is
increasingly able to meet its commodity-grade
needs but still requires substantial imports of
higher-value grades as its economy matures. And
what about production issues, i.e. outages and
turnarounds?
This leads us to our final “known, known”:
That scenario modelling has become much more
complex. Different assumptions on all the above
variants – and probably more that I haven’t
even thought of – need to be factored in as we
assess future HDPE trade flows to China and
earnings in China by the big exporters. This is
where artificial intelligence can increasingly
help us.
Why make life hard for yourself by not making
maximum use of AI? Don’t be a Luddite because
the answers are not perfect now. AI will get
better the more we work with it.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Crude Oil27-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official
manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
slipped back into contraction mode, with a
January reading of 49.1, as factory activity
wound down ahead of the eight-day Lunar New
Year holiday, official data showed on Monday.
Jan new export orders subindex falls to
46.4 from 48.3 in Dec
Industrial profits fall for third straight
year in 2024
Beijing likely to maintain “around 5%”
growth target for 2025
The January PMI print ended a three-month
expansion streak.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in
the manufacturing sector, while a reading below
50 signals contraction.
The eight-day Lunar New Year holiday which
begins on 28 January, with its attendant mass
migration of workers back to their hometowns
weighed heavily on the country’s manufacturing
sector in January, according to Zhao Qinghe, a
senior statistician at China’s National Bureau
of Statistics (NBS).
The new orders subindex stood at 49.2 in
January, down from 51.0 in the December 2024;
while the subindex for new export orders fell
to 46.4, compared with 48.3 in the previous
month, the data showed.
China’s key exports sector remains under
scrutiny, particularly after the country’s
exports
surged by 10.7% year on year in December,
driven by concerns over potential tariffs by
major trade partner – the US.
Manufacturers had front-loaded orders in
anticipation of these tariffs, leading to the
significant increase in exports.
Trump on 21 January said he is considering 10%
tariffs on imports from China that would take
effect as early as 1 February, citing the east
Asian country’s purported role in the trade of
addictive synthetic opioid fentanyl.
Fentanyl is responsible for tens of thousands
of overdose deaths annually in the US,
according to the US Drug Enforcement
Administration.
Trump’s comments came a day after he ordered an
investigation into Chinese trade practices but
held off on announcing any new tariffs.
“A lot of what Trump pledged to do was carried
out on Day 1 with the absence of concrete
tariff measures a significant relief, but a
delay does not imply no tariffs. There is after
all another 4 years of Trump to go,”
Singapore-based UOB Global Economics &
Markets Research said in a note.
UOB expects a staggered implementation of the
tariffs, starting as early as Q2 2025 and
concluding by the first half of 2026.
China’s
economy posted a 5% growth last year,
reaching the government’s target, following
extensive government stimulus measures.
The economy, however, continues to face
challenges, including a sluggish property
market, weakening domestic demand, and fragile
business confidence.
This imbalance is evident in December’s
economic data, which showed industrial output
outpacing retail sales, while the unemployment
rate edged higher.
Meanwhile, separate data from the NBS on Monday
showed that profits at China’s industrial firms
fell for a third straight year in 2024,
contracting by 3.3% after the 2.3% decrease in
2023.
The 2024 profits at state-owned companies fell
by 4.6% year on year, while those of foreign
firms fell by 1.7% and private-sector companies
recorded a 0.5% rise in earnings, the data
showed.
In December alone, China’s industrial profits
grew by 11% year on year, reversing the 7.3%
decline in November.
The industrial profit figures cover companies
with annual revenues of yuan (CNY) 20 million
or more from their core business operations.
Beijing is likely to maintain its “around 5%”
growth target for 2025, following a rebound in
Q4 growth and achieving its 2024 target,
Japan-based Nomura Global Markets Research said
in a note.
“However, we do not believe it is time for
Beijing to be complacent… in addition to
stepping up monetary easing and fiscal
stimulus, Beijing needs to clear the property
market, fix the fiscal system, reform the
social welfare system, and alleviate
geopolitical tensions to deliver a truly
sustainable growth recovery.”
($1 = CNY7.26)
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Acetic Acid27-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Trades in Asia’s
petrochemical markets have slowed down ahead of
the Lunar New Year holiday, with a general
oversupply in the region and the threat of US
tariffs clouding the outlook in February.
Some downstream plants start shutting down
two weeks before the holiday
Buyers mostly stay on sidelines while some
suppliers raise prices
Players cautiously optimistic over
post-holiday demand
Demand across oleochemicals, polyethylene (PE)
film, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS),
styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) has softened as
factories wind down or shut operations ahead of
the Lunar New Year holidays.
The Lunar New Year, which falls on 29 January,
is celebrated in most parts of northeast and
southeast Asia, with China on holiday from 28
January to 4 February.
Uncertainty over US trade policy under Donald
Trump’s administration, which expressed its
intention to impose 10% tariffs on China from 1
February, has weighed on market sentiment going
into and during the holiday.
“China is slowing down ahead the Lunar New
Year. Buying interest is low as market players
are going away back to their hometowns,” said a
source in the PE pipe grade market.
A southeast Asia-based glycerine producer said:
“We have not been getting any enquiries from
China recently for glycerine, so we have been
focusing on other regions.”
Same conditions were observed in Vietnam, which
is on holiday from 27 January to 3 February.
Spot transactions were minimal in Asia, with
trade discussions mostly deferred until after
the holidays.
MARKET ACTIVITY TO RESUME H2
FEB
In the Asian recycling market, active trades
may only resume when major exporters in China
and Taiwan are back in the second half of
February from a prolonged holiday.
China and Taiwan have the largest exporters of
recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET),
recycled polyethylene (rPE) and recycled
polypropylene (rPP) pellets.
Meanwhile, suppliers of PE pipe grade, titanium
dioxide (TiO2), and caprolactam (capro), have
either reduced spot supply or hiked prices
before the holiday even though demand remains
weak.
In the TiO2 market, players deemed the
price hike on 21 January was more in
anticipation of some improvement in
post-holiday demand.
“I don’t expect many trades to happen before
LNY [Lunar New Year]. Most buyers said they are
covered,” one market player said.
TRUMP WORRIES CONTINUE
For capro, styrene monomer (SM) and
monoethylene glycol (MEG), demand is expected
to improve post-holiday on seasonal restocking
or improved opportunities for Chinese
exporters.
However, uncertainties over US President Donald
Trump’s trade policies, including potential 10%
tariffs on Chinese products from 1 February,
and oversupply in key markets are tempering
optimism in the near term.
In December 2024, ABS and SAN end-users ramped
up production to frontload shipments of
contractual volumes to the US ahead of Trump’s
widely anticipated tariffs of as much as 60% on
Chinese goods.
This led to a marked increase in China’s
styrenics exports for the month.
Starting January, these end-use factories
reduced their run rates, having met their
contractual obligations, with some having shut
their plants as early as last week.
The pre-Lunar New Year period typically sets
the stage for post-holiday recovery, when
inventories are cleared and demand resumes.
Market players were keeping a cautiously
optimistic outlook on demand recovery.
“Ethyl acetate (etac) inventories will rise
[post-Lunar New Year holiday] with production,
but [Chinese domestic] demand will remain weak
in February,” said a China-based market source.
All eyes are focused on how soon Trump will
impose his promised tariffs, with actual market
impact likely to be felt a month after the
announcement, according to market players.
Focus article by Jonathan Yee
Additional reporting from Yvonne Shi, Izham
Ahmad, Arianne Perez, Helen Yan, Angeline Soh,
Seng Li Peng, Isaac Tan, Joson Ng, Tan Hwee
Hwee, Luffy Wu, Yvonne Shi, Melanie Wee, Judith
Wang
Thumbnail image: At Qingdao Port in
Shandong province, China, on 23 January 2025.
(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Gas27-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 24 January.
INSIGHT: Asia braces
for Trump’s trade upheaval
By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Jan-25 12:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian policymakers are
bracing for the return of Donald Trump,
dubbed “Trump 2.0,” with heightened concerns
over increased trade tariffs, ahead of his
inauguration as US president on 20 January.
Oil
prices mixed as Israel-Hamas ceasefire
begins; supply concerns persist
By Jonathan Yee 20-Jan-25 13:49 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Oil prices were mixed on Monday
afternoon amid easing tensions in the Middle
East as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire took
effect on 19 January, although supply
concerns remain amid US sanctions on Russia’s
energy sector.
Asia PV-grade EVA
market firms on supply curbs in China,
outlook mixed
By Helen Lee 21-Jan-25 17:21 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–After a slow start to the new year,
Asia’s photovoltaic (PV)-grade ethylene vinyl
acetate (EVA) prices rose for the first time
since early December 2024 on revived demand
for January and February shipments into the
key China market.
INSIGHT: Firming crude,
plant outages provides support across Asia
petchems in Jan
By Jimmy Zhang 21-Jan-25 20:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–A substantial proportion of Asia
petrochemical prices are expected to increase
in January, with rising crude values
providing the bulk of upward support early in
the month, buoyed further by plant outages in
some markets.
Asia caustic soda
pre-Lunar New Year supply may be
crimped
By Jonathan Chou 22-Jan-25 12:36 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s liquid caustic soda supply
conditions may be tighter than expected ahead
of the upcoming major regional Lunar New Year
holidays amid some regional producers’
turnarounds and the possibility of capped
operating rates due to sluggish co-product
conditions.
Tonnage shortfall pulls
back China solvent exports to
Taiwan
By Hwee Hwee Tan 23-Jan-25 10:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–An escalated trade spat has hindered
regional tanker supply from adjusting in
favor of changing petrochemical trade flows
between China and Taiwan.
Malaysia keeps key
interest rate steady; steady GDP growth to be
sustained in 2025
By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Jan-25 15:37
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s central bank
kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on
22 January, amid expectations that the
domestic economy will be able to sustain its
growth momentum this year on manageable
inflation levels.
Gap
between Asia rPET and PET prices stay wide
despite recent gains
By Arianne Perez 24-Jan-25 15:18 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian spot prices of recycled
polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) remain
substantially higher than virgin plastics
despite the recent double-digit increase in
spot PET prices.
Speciality Chemicals24-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers
from east Asia and China to the US plunged this
week, as did global average rates amid the
typical slowdown around the Lunar New Year
(LNY) holiday.
Meanwhile, shipowners are out with surcharges
on various trade lanes, which could support
rates at current levels even with the slowdown
in volumes.
Global average rates fell by 11% according to
supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in
the following chart.
Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 8%,
while rates from Shanghai to New York fell by
7%, as shown in the following chart.
Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly
in the coming week on the back of the Chinese
Lunar New Year holidays.
Rates from online freight shipping marketplace
and platform provider Freightos also showed
decreases, with a 10% fall from Asia to the
West Coast and a 3% drop to the East Coast.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos,
said the lull around LNY is pressuring rates
lower.
CMA CGM has announced a congestion surcharge of
$300/FEU originating from Callao and San
Antonio to the US East Coast and US Gulf.
Global shipping major Maersk announced peak
season surcharges of $1,000 for all sizes of
containers for shipments from Middle East
countries to the US and Canada East Coast,
effective 1 February.
Hapag-Lloyd has announced peak season
surcharges of $600/container from Chile to
Asia.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
RETURN TO SUEZ CANAL NOT
IMMINENT
While the ceasefire agreement between Israel
and Hamas led to some optimism that
transits through the Suez Canal could resume,
passage of commercial vessels through the
waterway are not imminent.
Levine said there remains skepticism among
shipping analysts that the Houthi rebels will
refrain from attacks on commercial vessels in
the Red Sea even during the first stage of the
ceasefire.
Negotiations on the second phase of the
agreement are scheduled to begin on 5 February.
Levine said ocean carriers do see the ceasefire
as a promising first step, but only CMA CGM has
said it will increase its use of the Suez
Canal.
Most carriers will not take the costly and
complicated concrete steps to return to the Red
Sea until they are confident that the route is
and will remain safe.
Many shippers and freight forwarded are also
hesitant to change course.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight
rate analytics firm Xeneta, said carriers will
want assurance they have safe passage for crews
and ships in the long term and that the
situation will not suddenly deteriorate.
PANAMA CANAL
President Donald Trump surprised some when he
said that the US should reclaim the Panama
Canal.
A US congressman has since introduced a
bill that would
authorize the purchase of the Panama Canal.
The US is the largest user of the canal, with
around 70% of all traffic heading to or coming
from US ports. About 40% of US container
traffic use the canal.
The US relinquished control of the canal on 31
December 1999 in The Panama Canal Treaty,
signed by then US President Jimmy Carter.
Panamanian President Jose Raul Molino said the
treaty, along with The Treaty Concerning the
Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the
Panama Canal, established the permanent
neutrality of the Canal, guaranteeing its open
and safe operation for all nations.
The Panama Canal remains the primary route for
trade between Asia and the US Gulf and East
Coast.
LIQUID TANKER RATES
US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by
ICIS were largely stable week on week, with
just the USG to Brazil trade lane seeing a
slight increase on smaller volumes but overall
unchanged. The market remained quiet this week,
with COA volumes steady.
For cargoes moving in and out of South America
some space remains available, capping the gains
seen on the week. Strong interest that was seen
over the past two months is waning, which is
likely to put additional pressure on freight
rates.
Volumes from the US continue to flow, but cargo
moving into Asia is slowing because of the
Lunar New Year holiday. However, monoethylene
glycol (MEG) and ethanol entered the market for
February loading.
A different scenario is playing out on the
transatlantic eastbound route where February
loading space is already available for spot but
on a limited basis.
On the other hand, there seems to be a lot of
interest on the USG to India trade lanes as
there is a lot of lube oils interest for
January with limited spot space remaining as
owner await COA nominations.
Several inquiries were seen for methanol,
ethanol and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM).
Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
Ethylene24-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–ExxonMobil may build an ethane
cracker and polyethylene (PE) plant near Corpus
Christi, Texas, the company said in an
application for a tax break.
If ExxonMobil proceeds with the project, it
would be built in Calhoun county, which is
north of Corpus Christi, the application said.
Construction could start in 2025 and finish at
the end of 2030. Production could start in
2031, the application said.
ExxonMobil is considering other locations for
the possible project, including the Middle
East, Asia and other sites in North America.
ExxonMobil did not disclose capacity figures.
The total capital investment could be $8.6
billion.
In a statement, ExxonMobil said it was
evaluating multiple locations around the world
for a future chemical plant. It acknowledged
the advantages of a project on the Gulf Coast,
which it could integrate with its operations in
the Permian basin.
“While this site has potential, we are very
early in our evaluation process,” ExxonMobil
said. “Filing for a tax abatement before a
final decision is required by law and is part
of our due diligence to gain greater clarity
for our shareholders and the community.
“As we look to meet global demand for our
products, we’ll continue to evaluate the market
conditions before we make a decision,” the
company said.
ExxonMobil is involved in another petrochemical
project in nearby San Patricio county under
the Gulf Coast Growth Ventures joint venture
with SABIC. Operations started earlier in the
decade, and that project produces ethylene, PE
and ethylene glycols.
Thumbnail shows PE pellets. Image by
ICIS.
(adds comments from ExxonMobil, paragraphs
6-8)
(adds clarification about operations starting
earlier in the decade, paragraph 9)
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