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Crude Oil17-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Ocean container freight rates
in Asia are expected to remain high in the near
term amid persistent congestion at key ports in
the region, particularly Singapore.
Peak demand season, capacity issues
continue to push up rates
Singapore port wait times reduced, but
challenges remain
ASEAN Express offers faster rail
alternative to sea freight
The
Drewry World Container Index (WCI) edged up
1% to $5,901 per forty-foot equivalent unit
(FEU) for the week ending 11 July, with the
rate of increase easing from a double-digit
pace se in recent weeks.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
(SCFI), which measures spot rates for shipping
containers from Shanghai to major global ports,
meanwhile, dipped 1% week on week to 3,674.86
points in the week ending 12 July.
The convergence of seasonal peak demand and
strained capacity as commercial vessels
continued to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Cana,
are expected to keep shipping costs firm in the
near term for container routes globally, said
Judah Levine, the head of research at online
freight shipping marketplace and platform
provider Freightos.
According to supply chain advisors Drewry,
ocean freight rates are expected to remain high
until the end of the peak season, which
typically falls between August to October each
year.
SINGAPORE CONGESTION
EASING
In Singapore, the world’s second-largest port
and the largest transshipment hub connecting
Asia and the west, the average wait time to
berth has been “reduced to two days or under”,
port operator PSA Singapore said in a statement
on 10 July.
This compares to waiting times up to seven days
for a berth in the port of Singapore in late
May this year, according to logistics data
group Linerlytica.
Singapore has experienced high berth demand and
unscheduled vessel arrivals since the start of
2024, leading to increased waiting times
despite utilizing all available berths, PSA
said.
PSA has since “significantly ramped up its
capabilities to support increased activity and
mitigate the impact of global supply chain
disruptions since the beginning of 2024”.
However, the PSA warned that “the Red Sea
crisis has significantly disrupted global
shipping and trade and we anticipate this
challenging situation to persist for a
prolonged period, potentially extending port
congestion from Asia to Europe”.
For chemical tankers, shipping brokers have
reported varying degrees of congestion and
delays at Singapore ports.
A broker involved in bio-chemicals and clean
petroleum product (CPP) trades noted congestion
at all terminals with delays of at least one
week.
A tanker carrying methyl acetate (MEAC) was
facing a two-week delay in discharging cargoes
at a key terminal in Jurong Island, another
broker said.
Jurong Island is Singapore’s petrochemical hub.
A third broker indicated that delays in
unloading and loading of cargoes at Singapore
ports were generally measured in days rather
than weeks.
A Singapore-based acrylates producer was having
difficulties securing
vessel space, as shipping companies were
bypassing the congested port.
This congestion has also spilled over into
Malaysia, impacting customers in both countries
which are now experiencing delays of up to a
week for July shipments.
Overall port congestion levels in Malaysia have
been reduced, but berthing delays remain at
five days at Port Klang, while Tanjung Pelepas
has limited delays, Linerlytica said in an
update on 10 July.
In India, heavy congestion is also reported at
Colombo port, resulting in backlogs and delays,
with adverse weather conditions around the Cape
of Good Hope compounding the situation, causing
further delays, according to global digital
freight forwarder Zencargo in a note on 15
July.
Vessels are increasingly navigating around the
Cape of Good Hope to avoid the heightened risks
in the Red Sea and Suez Canal due to escalating
Houthi attacks since November 2023, opting for
a longer-but-safer route despite the added time
and costs.
“The market from the Indian subcontinent to
Europe is experiencing significant
disruptions,” it said.
“Carriers have stopped accepting bookings from
South India for Europe due to heavy congestion
in Colombo, causing a minimum delay of three
weeks in transshipment. Carriers are only
quoting on spot rates due to the tight space
situation.”
Historically, Colombo has handled a substantial
portion of India’s containerized exports and
imports due to insufficient direct line-haul
connections from the country’s east coast
ports, according to Zencargo.
However, recent months have seen an unusual
surge in volumes, exacerbated by vessel
diversions linked to Red Sea shipping
disruptions, with ships languishing for over
five days before securing a berth, it said.
In China, port delays have worsened in the week
to 10 July after recent improvements due to
bunching of vessel arrivals, with wait times of
up to four days in Shanghai and up to two days
in Ningbo, Linerlytica added.
China is also set to continue grappling with
rising container prices and leasing rates in
July, according to Haoze Lou, a member of the
broker team at online shipping container
leasing firm Container xChange.
Scarcity of available slots for China-Europe
and China-US routes has intensified, prompting
offline suppliers to offer competitive prices
to attract customers, Lou said.
“In June, we’ve observed a continued rise in
container prices in China, impacting both
trading and leasing activities,” he said,
adding that a rebound is expected over the next
month as slot availability tightens again.
CONTAINER RATES HINGES ON CONSUMER
DEMAND
The outlook for the container trading and
leasing market in the second half of 2024
hinges on a revival in consumer demand but
faces uncertainties due to geopolitical
disruptions and potential labor unrest,
according to Container xChange.
Continued Houthi attacks threaten supply
chains, while potential labor issues in US
ports could further disrupt operations, it
said.
“However, if the current market conditions
persist without major changes, we expect
container rates to ease,” Container xChange
noted.
“This reduction in rates could trigger an
uptick in container buyer activity, as the
buyer side is currently waiting for prices to
decline before resuming trading and leasing
activities.”
RAIL OPTIONS OPEN UP FOR CHINA-SE ASIA
ROUTE
The successful inaugural trips of the ASEAN
Express – a new cargo rail service connecting
Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, and China – highlight
its potential as a faster and more efficient
alternative to traditional ocean freight as it
connects new trade routes and inland ports
across Asia.
This includes the Kontena Nasional Inland
Clearance Depot in Selangor, Malaysia;
Latkrabang Inland Port in Thailand; and the
Thanaleng Dry Port in Laos, which connects to a
railway terminal in Chongqing, southwest China.
The first ASEAN Express cargo train
successfully completed a round trip between
Malaysia and China on 11 July, carrying
electronic appliances and agricultural
products, marking a milestone in regional trade
connectivity which could boost trade of
petrochemical end-products.
The recently launched cargo rail service has
been met with optimism by Asian
recyclers, though immediate impact is
expected to be limited.
While the service directly benefits buyers and
sellers in China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Laos,
recyclers in Taiwan, Indonesia, and Vietnam
anticipate primarily using ships, potentially
freeing up shipping capacity and alleviating
tightness in vessel and container space.
This new service significantly reduces transit
time compared to sea freight, taking just under
14 days compared with up to three weeks by sea.
“This service will provide smoother and more
efficient goods flow throughout the region as
well as enhance rail cargo transport capacity
while reducing logistics costs by an estimated
20% from current market rates,” Malaysian
transport minister Loke Siew Fook said in a
speech at the flag-off ceremony for the new
rail service on 27 June.
“The shorter transport times are also expected
to open up new markets, with the agricultural
sector in particular to benefit by allowing
perishable products to be transported more
quickly by rail,” he added.
Insight article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Additional reporting by Hwee Hwee Tan,
Corey Chew, Arianne Perez and Ai Teng Lim
Thumbnail image: At the Keppel and Brani
port terminals in Singapore, 15 June 2024 (By
Joseph Nair/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Crude Oil17-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary
Fund (IMF) late on Tuesday revised upwards its
economic growth projections for China and
India, with Asia’s emerging market economies
set to remain as the main engine for the global
economy.
However, prospects for the region over the next
five years remain weak, largely because of
waning momentum in emerging Asian economies,
the IMF said in its World Economic
Outlook report.
China’s economic growth projection was upgraded
to 5% for 2024, up 0.4 percentage points from
previous estimate made in April, while India is
now expected to expand by 7%, up by 0.2
percentage points.
By 2029, however, growth in China is projected
to moderate to 3.3%, well below its current
pace, the IMF warned.
China’s growth forecast for 2024 was revised
higher mainly due to a resurgence in private
consumption and robust exports in the first
quarter.
“Resurgent domestic consumption [in China]
propelled the positive upside in the first
quarter, aided by what looked to be a temporary
surge in exports belatedly reconnecting with
last year’s rise in global demand,” the IMF
said.
“These developments have narrowed the output
divergences somewhat across economies, as
cyclical factors wane and activity becomes
better aligned with its potential.”
However, China’s GDP growth is expected to
moderate to 4.5% in 2025 and further decelerate
by 2029, primarily due to challenges from an
aging population and diminishing productivity
growth.
India’s growth estimate for this year was
revised upward due to the carryover effect
from increased growth in 2023 and a positive
outlook for private consumption, particularly
in rural regions.
In Japan, despite the expectation of increased
private consumption in the latter half of 2024
due to strong wage settlements, the overall
growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down
by 0.2 percentage points to 0.7%.
This adjustment is primarily attributed to
temporary disruptions in supply chains and
sluggish private investment during the first
quarter.
Global growth is projected to be in line
with the IMF’s April forecast, at 3.2% in 2024
and 3.3% in 2025.
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Hydrogen17-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Aramco has signed definitive
agreements to acquire 50% of Saudi Arabia-based
Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases (BHIG), a wholly
owned subsidiary of Air Products Qudra (APQ),
for an undisclosed fee, the energy giant said
late on Tuesday.
The transaction will also include options for
Aramco to offtake hydrogen and nitrogen, it
said in a statement.
APQ is a joint venture between Saudi-based
Qudra Energy and US industrial gases firm Air
Products.
Upon completion of the transaction, Aramco and
APQ are expected to each own a 50% stake in
BHIG, which focuses on producing lower-carbon
hydrogen through a process known as steam
methane reforming (SMR).
Saudi Aramco expects its investment to
contribute to creation of a lower-carbon
hydrogen network in the Eastern Province,
catering to both domestic and regional markets.
“This investment highlights Aramco’s ambition
to expand its new energies portfolio and grow
its lower-carbon hydrogen business,” Aramco
executive vice president for strategy &
corporate development Ashraf Al Ghazzawi said.
“We intend to leverage our growing capabilities
in carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as
our technical expertise in hydrogen, with the
ambition to support the establishment of a
vibrant marketplace for lower-carbon hydrogen –
helping lay the foundations of a future energy
system.”
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Ammonia16-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US agribusiness titan Cargill
announced it has surpassed the 50% completion
milestone in the construction of its new canola
facility located in West Regina, Saskatchewan.
Cargill broke ground on the facility in July
2022 and anticipates opening in 2025 with the
new facility having the capacity to process 1
million tonnes of canola per year, producing
crude canola oil for food and biofuel markets
and canola meal for animal feed.
“The addition of the Regina facility to the
Cargill network will play a critical role
connecting the Canadian canola industry to the
expanding domestic and global market
opportunities for vegetable oil, high quality
meal and biofuels,” said Jeff Vassart, Cargill
Canada president.
“The current construction environment is full
of unique challenges and this project has faced
many headwinds since we broke ground, but we
are committed to becoming a best-in-class
option for canola growers in the region, along
with helping decarbonize the global food and
fuel supply chain.”
To support rail and road infrastructure around
the new plant, Cargill recently completed the
purchase of just over 400 acres near the
facility location which it said will allow for
better connection to existing rail lines.
This will provide the site with additional
optionality to bring canola seed to Regina when
needed, providing a new destination for farmers
in western Canada.
Speciality Chemicals16-Jul-2024
NASHVILLE (ICIS)–Unfavorable farming
fundamentals, including weaker grain prices,
high cost of credit, and weather issues will
continue to hit demand for fertilizers, said
market participants on the sidelines of the
Southwestern fertilizer conference (14-18
July).
Grain prices have slumped to the lowest level
since December 2020 as Tropical Storm Beryl was
expected to bring rains to the Midwest. This
could boost yields at a time when prices are
already under downward pressure due to ample
availability.
“The US farmer is in the worst shape that I
have seen in my career, and this is
concerning,” said a trader with over 15 years
of experience.
Urea prices in the US are the cheapest in the
world right now, as expected for this time of
the year due to it being the offseason.
Some market players believe prices are low
domestically to discourage more imports.
Importers may even look at re-exports to Brazil
and Latin America if urea prices in New Orleans
decline below $290-295/short ton FOB Nola.
The level of $290/short ton FOB Nola is
equivalent to $360/tonne CFR (cost &
freight).
For now, the urea level in Nola is in the mid
$300s/short ton FOB Nola for July shipment.
The phosphates market is getting more attention
than urea in the US given the lack of
availability for monoammonium phosphate (MAP)
due to countervailing duties (CVD) on product
arriving from Russia and Morocco.
The lack of MAP availability is seeing prices
trade at around $120/tonne premium to
diammonium phosphate (DAP), when usually the
premium is $20/tonne.
There is more demand for triple phosphate (TSP)
as some players are forced to switch due to the
lack of MAP supply.
The CVD rate for Russian producer PhosAgro is
currently at 28.50%, while for Morocco the
process is under review and could result in an
increase in CVDs from 2.12% to 14.21% in
October/November.
Thumbnail shows crops being grown at a
farm. Image by Shutterstock.
Speciality Chemicals16-Jul-2024
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Rampant overcapacity in China
may change as limits to refinery expansions and
new plants stifle feedstock availability.
Big structural reforms needed to improve
China’s economy
China petrochemical trends become more
complicated
Country plans to cap refinery capacity at 1
billion tonnes/year from 2027-2040
China forging closer relations with Saudi
Arabia
Swift rise in China electric vehicles
threatens petrochemical feedstocks
Zero carbon rules limit future plant
construction in China
Europe needs to act fast to protect its
industry
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews ICIS Insight editor
Nigel Davis, ICIS senior
consultant Asia John
Richardson and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Expandable Polystyrene16-Jul-2024
MADRID (ICIS)–Colombia’s single-use plastic
ban, which affects a wide range of products,
kicks off amid some industry reluctance after a
hurried implementation, and with provisions to
revise the legislation after a one year trial
period.
The law that came into force on 7 July
implemented a ban on eight plastics: carrier
bags for packing supermarket purchases; bags
for fruits and vegetables; plastic packing for
magazines and newspapers; bags for storing
clothes coming out of the laundry; plastic
holders for balloons; cotton swabs; straws; and
stirrers.
The regulation establishes that those plastic
products must be replaced by sustainable
alternatives, such as biodegradable and
compostable materials or recycled materials, or
reusable non-plastic materials.
It is a wide-ranging ban approved in parliament
in 2022, although the plastics industry has
criticized that details about the
implementation of the law were only published
at the end of June, barely two weeks before the
kick-off date.
Environmental groups have welcomed the measure,
hoping more countries in Latin America will
implement similar legislation in a region where
plastics are omnipresent.
MORE TO COMEApart from
the eight plastic products banned from 7 July,
the ban has set a transition period ranging
from two to eight years, depending on the type
of plastic, to allow merchants time to adapt to
the new regulations.
By 2030, plastics to be eliminated or
transformed into reusable materials include
containers, packaging, and bags for non
pre-packaged liquids; disposable plates, trays,
and cutlery; confetti, tablecloths, and
streamers; containers, packaging, and bags for
deliveries; sheets for serving or packaging
foods for immediate consumption; wrappers for
fruits and vegetables; stickers for fruits;
handles for dental floss; and straws for
containers of up to three liters.
The law establishes exceptions for single-use
plastics in certain cases, including exceptions
for plastics used for medical purposes;
packaging of biological or chemical waste; food
products of animal origin; and those made with
100% recycled plastic raw material sourced from
national post-consumer material.
The regulation also mandates that public
entities cannot acquire prohibited single-use
plastics if sustainable alternatives are
available, and these entities must implement
reduction campaigns.
Colombia’s National Environmental Licensing
Authority (ANLA in its Spanish acronym) will
oversee and enforce these measures.
Among the measures included in the law, there
is a request from distributors of plastic bags
to submit reports on the rational use and
recycling of bags in their inventory and must
submit an Environmental Management Plan for
packaging waste by 31 December.
The law clearly will put an administrative
burden on companies, not least distributors and
the role they have been assigned as
guardians of the law.
In an interview with ICIS, the CEO of
QuimicoPlasticos, a chemicals distributor in
Colombia, said he thinks many aspects of the
law will have to be reversed, not least points
such as the nationally sourced recycled
plastics as substitutes, given that recycling
is in its infancy in the country and there will
not be enough supply for years.
QuimicoPlastics is a family-run distributor
founded in 1982 and employs 80 people. It
imports raw materials which distributes to the
plastic packaging sectors (rigid and flexible)
with end markets such agriculture,
construction, food, and hygiene.
The company was founded by the father of the
current CEO, Federico Londoño, who has been on
the post for 12 years. He has got low opinions
about the law.
“The law goes much further than a country like
Colombia can afford. Moreover, globally and
here in Colombia there are investments
companies have made which are researching
alternatives to, say, trays made of EPS
[expandable polystyrene], but with laws like
this the burden on companies grows and
incentives for investment diminish,” said
Londoño.
It is a criticism shared across Latin America.
In an interview with ICIS
in June, the head of Chile’s plastics trade
group Asipla also said parliamentarians push
for sustainability was at times detached from
the country’s reality.
Before QuimicoPlasticos’ Londoño, the head of
Colombia’s plastics trade group Acoplasticos
also showed skepticism in an interview with ICIS
about the law banning such wide range of
single-use plastics.
Before the law on single-use plastics, Colombia
had already approved a tax on plastics
production, which was marred with confusion
in its initial stages of implementation.
The moves around plastics have been welcome by
environmental groups, some of them with the
support of major consumer goods producers such
as Washington-based Ocean Conservancy; in its
website,
it says some of its partners include Coca-Cola,
Ikea, or Garnier, among many others.
“With over 11 million tonnes of plastics
entering the ocean each year, this law [banning
single-use plastics] is a huge win for Colombia
and the ocean,” said in a statement Edith
Cecchini, director of international plastics at
Ocean Conservancy.
“Single-use plastic bags, straws, and stirrers
are among the top ten most commonly found items
polluting beaches and waterways worldwide by
Ocean Conservancy’s International Coastal
Cleanup. Ocean Conservancy applauds Colombia
for this important step to prevent plastic
pollution and protect marine life, and we hope
that other countries will follow suit.”
EXPANDING PUBLIC
SERVICESThe push for
sustainability by the left-leaning cabinet
presided over by Gustavo Petro goes hand in
hand with plans to increase tax receipts to
finance the expansion in the welfare state
Petro campaigned for.
The cabinet has been under pressure to put the
public accounts in order after posting fiscal
deficits for most of Petro’s term. In June, the
government published its fiscal plan for the
coming years, hoping to quell fears among
investors.
Most analysts argued that
the cabinet’s plans are too optimistic. For
instance, it forecasts crude oil prices at
around $90/barrel on average for the coming
years, as a big chunk of Colombia’s income
comes from its state-owned oil major Ecopetrol.
To reassure investors, Finance Minister Ricardo
Bonilla announced spending cuts worth Colombian
pesos (Ps) 20 trillion ($5.1 billion,
equivalent to 1.2% of GDP) to meet the target
set out by the new fiscal plan 2024.
“Even so, there’s reason for concern. For one
thing, the government made clear that there
would be no cuts to social spending; instead, a
lot of the adjustment (around one third) will
come in the form of cuts to public investment,”
said Capital Economics at the time.
Manufacturing, meanwhile, has
been in the doldrums for much of 2023 and
2024, except for a positive spell in the first
quarter.
According to QuimicoPlasticos’ CEO, the
government’s economic policy is deterring
investments and creating uncertainty.
“The economy is not going well. Industrial
companies are suffering a high degree of
uncertainty, because the fiscal burden on them
continues to increase. This is no surprise, of
course, when some public official within the
cabinet have publicly said companies ‘steal
from the people’ and they should be taxed
more,” said Londoño.
“Treating industrial companies as cash cows is
wrong: these are the companies which need large
sums in capital investments, and increasing
taxes on them only deters that. If we add to
that, for example, that the cabinet wants to
reduce the role of fossil fuels in the
country’s exports due to environmental reasons,
you get a worrying picture for the coming
years.”
($1 = Ps3,946)
Insight by Jonathan Lopez
Speciality Chemicals16-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Strong service sector
performance and robust exports through 2024
amid cooling inflation points to the eurozone
economy bottoming out following the emergence
of tentative green shoots during the first
quarter of the year, the IMF said.
The organisation upped its forecast for
eurozone growth to 0.9% for 2024, a 0.1
percentage point increase from the previous
forecast in April, on the back of growing
evidence that the bloc may have put the low
point of the economic cycle behind it.
Wage growth is expected to drive consumption,
while loosening monetary policy could drive an
uptick in investment, the IMF said, although
players in sectors such as construction see the
impact of rate cuts being slow to ripple
through the market.
With manufacturing still underperforming
compared to services, as highlighted by
Eurostat data on Monday showing that EU
industrial output shrank month on month in May
on the back of productivity declines across all
most sub-sectors.
Eurozone industrial activity was stagnant in
April, with March the only month to see output
increase month on month, according to Eurostat
data.
This slower manufacturing sector recovery is
likely to drag on economic escape trajectory in
countries like Germany, which the IMF projects
will see GDP growth of 0.2% this year.
Other member states such as Spain are likely to
see considerably stronger growth, the agency
added, increasing its 2024 GDP growth forecast
for the country by 0.5 percentage points to
2.4%.
Investment analysts have projected greater
political stability in the UK after a general
election delivering a strong mandate to the
Labour Party and five years until the next
election, and the IMF has upped its forecast
for the country. UK GDP is now expected to
stand at 0.7% this year a 0.2 percentage point
increase from the IMF’s April outlook.
The impact of cyclical factors buffeting global
markets has receded, despite still-high
shipping costs due to the ongoing Red Sea
disruption, and overall economic activity is
shifting closer to actual potential, according
to the IMF.
“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy
remains remarkably resilient, with steady
growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly
as it rose,” said IMF chief economist
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Global growth is expected to have bottomed out
at 2.3% in 2022 following an inflation spike to
9.4% that year, and growth is expected to stand
at 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025.
Inflation has come down since then, allowing
for a modest rate cut by the European Central
Bank, but the pace of disinflation has slowed,
the IMF noted, with the service sector momentum
buoying European growth also propping up
inflation.
The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis
points in June, but markets are not projecting
another when its monetary policy committee
convenes on Thursday. The US Federal Reserve is
yet to cut rates, with officials guiding for
just one reduction this year.
US central bank caution is feeding through to
emerging market central banks, the IMF noted.
“A number of central banks in emerging market
economies remain cautious in regard to cutting
rates owing to external risks triggered by
changes in interest rate differentials and
associated depreciation of those economies’
currencies against the dollar,” it said.
Europe is showing fewer signs of economic
overheating than the US, which is likely to see
slightly slower than expected growth this year
as the labour market slows and consumption
drops. US GDP is expected to be 2.6% this year,
according to the IMF.
“Unlike in the United States, there is little
evidence of overheating [in the eurozone], and
the European Central Bank will need to
carefully calibrate the pivot toward monetary
easing to avoid an inflation undershoot,”
Gourinchas said.
Economic scarring also remains more apparent in
the developing world, with many nations still
struggling to turn the page from the aftermath
of the pandemic compared to economies like the
US, which has already moved past pre-COVID
growth levels.
Focus article by Tom
Brown.
Thumbnail photo: Outside the IMF’s
Washington, DC headquarters (Source: Gripas
Yuri/ABACA/Shutterstock)
Ammonia16-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Caprolactam (capro) availability
in Europe has been very tight until recently,
following a shortage of sulphur and low
downstream demand. However, slow capro demand
has helped to balance the market.
Senior capro editor Marta Fern joins senior
fertilizer editors Julia Meehan and Sylvia
Traganida to discuss current developments and
what lies ahead for the market.
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