HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook that in the near-term it expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive. The producer highlighted in its earnings release that global pricing was supported in Q1 of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports. CF said there is anticipated strong demand from not only global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, but because there is below average global inventories and challenging production economics in Europe. Looking at North America, CF said there should be strong nitrogen demand during the spring application season due to favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans, which is driving higher planted corn acres in 2025. The producer noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this season. For Brazil, the company expects the country will remain the largest urea import region, with imports projected to exceed 8 million tonnes, with this outlook supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production. In India, there is less urea inventory with CF saying that lower-than-targeted domestic production and higher year on year urea sales pushed urea inventory levels down by approximately 35% compared to March 2024. As a result, their management expects higher urea import requirements for the rest of this year to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks. Across Europe the producer is projecting that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. For China, CF said the ongoing urea export controls continue to limit availability from the country with minimal volumes concluded in Q1 of 2025. The company feels that urea exports will not resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest. In Russia, urea exports are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil. CF also is expecting that over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure would then remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. In the longer-term view CF is projecting that the global nitrogen supply demand balance will further tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is forecasted to not keep pace with the expected rise in global demand. Those needs are anticipated to have a growth rate of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and see more new demand emerging for clean energy applications. CF has a view that global production will remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US and UK announced the first trade deal since the US 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs which would open up UK market access for US chemicals, machinery, beef, ethanol and other agricultural products, government officials said. The deal also opens up US market access for UK autos, steel and aluminium, and beef. US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal in a press conference on the 8 May. While the deal will be finalized in the coming weeks with full details, officials revealed certain aspects of the agreement. Trump and Starmer spoke on the phone in front of the press, and then each ran separate press conferences. US tariffs of 10% on UK imports will remain in place but sectoral auto tariffs will fall from 25% to 10% for UK vehicles, as stated in the US press conference. There was an existing US tariff of 2.5% for imported vehicles prior to the sectoral tariffs, but the final auto tariff level for the UK would be 10%. This would apply to a quota of the first 100,000 cars, almost the total the UK exported in 2024, according to the UK government. The US reciprocal tariffs revealed on 2 April included the minimum 10% level for the UK where the US runs a goods trade surplus. In 2024, the US exported $79.9 billion in goods to the UK and imported $68.1 billion in goods for a trade surplus of $11.8 billion, according to the US Trade Representative. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium would be slashed to zero for imports from the UK, as indicated in the UK press conference. UK Rolls Royce aircraft engines and other aircraft parts would also face no US tariff. The opening up of new markets to US exports would add, “$5 billion of opportunity”, for US exporters, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. “Work will continue on the remaining sectors – such as pharmaceuticals and remaining reciprocal tariffs. But – in an important move – the US has agreed that the UK will get preferential treatment in any further tariffs imposed as part of Section 232 investigations,” said the UK government in a statement. In terms of a template for additional deals, Trump said that 10% tariffs is the floor with some much higher. OPTIMISM ON CHINA TARIFFSHe also expressed optimism that tariffs between the US and China would be lowered. The US has a 145% tariff on imports from China with some exemptions, and China has imposed a 125% tariff on imports from the US with certain reported exemptions.

European Parliament signs off storage filling approach Negotiations to find a compromise between approach of Parliament and EU countries can begin First talks to take place on 13 May LONDON (ICIS)–Talks to find a compromise on lowering the EU’s gas storage targets will begin on 13 May, after the European Parliament adopted its negotiating mandate in a vote on 8 May. Legislators greenlit the committee on industry, research and energy (ITRE)’s proposal that would lower the fill target to 83% but allow for a target to fall as low as 75% depending on market conditions. The house also approved an amendment calling for countries to “refrain from storing gas of Russian origin” and for the EU to pursue an immediate end to Russian gas and LNG imports. A delegation from the Parliament will now begin so-called trilogue negotiations with countries, represented by the Council of the EU, and with the European Commission also attending. EU diplomats agreed the Council position on 11 April, with a target of 80% in unfavourable market conditions, although a general aim of 90% full remains. The rules would extend gas filling obligations beyond their current expiry at the end of the year through the end of 2027. Lawmakers have indicated they wish for the rules to apply to the rest of 2025, but these cannot take effect until a deal is done and published in the Union’s official journal. Market expectations of a deal have caused the Dutch TTF Q3 ’25 gas contract to flip to a discount to the front winter as the EU legislative process has progressed. ICIS assessments showed the TTF Q3 ’25 discount averaged €0.548/MWh below Winter ’25 between 9-23 April, correlating with details of the Council position. The spread widened to €0.955/MWh from 24 April-7 May, after the ITRE committee vote suggested a speedy resolution to negotiations. The Dutch TTF Q3 ’25 held an average premium of €2.769 over Winter ’25 during the first three months of 2025. PROPOSAL DETAILS The proposal, in line with the Council’s position, provides a window between 1 October-1 December for shippers to meet the target. This time range would allow more flexibility, “which would mean that at key deadlines gas prices would not be much higher”, ITRE committee chair Boris Budka, who leads the parliament’s work on the file, told MEPs on 7 May. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen signalled that the European Commission would work with the co-legislators to ensure a swift compromise in trilogues. “I agree that such flexibility can alleviate the current market situation, and I trust that an agreement could be reached soon,” Jorgensen said. Poland, which holds the rotating Council presidency until June, has stated a desire to reach a provisional deal by the end of its mandate, but the timescales remain uncertain. LAWMAKER VIEWS There was much political consensus around lowering the targets, with German MEP Andrea Wechsler saying a return to a market-based structure was vital, due to the distortions created by the rules. The centre-right European People’s Party grouping, the house’s largest, called for “a new balance between supply, security and market circumstances and thinking in free-market terms as well,” she said. However, Yvan Verougstraete of the centrist Renew group called for Europe to take further action by developing North Sea gas reserves and creating a 90-day strategic gas reserve similar to the one for oil.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Solvay’s Q1 underlying net profit from continuing operations fell to €102 million year on year from €119 million during the same period in 2024 on customer caution arising from macroeconomic uncertainty, the Belgian chemicals firm said on Thursday. In € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 % Change Net sales 1,122 1,201 -6.6 EBITDA 250 265 -5.9 Underlying net profit from continuing operations 102 119 -14.3 Basic Chemicals sales in Q1 2025 were down by -6.0% compared to Q1 2024, the company said. There was some softness in Soda Ash as customers displayed caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in March. Meanwhile, Solvay’s underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin for Q1 rose by 0.2 percentage points to 22.3% year on year from 22.1% in the same period in 2024. Soda Ash & Derivatives sales for the quarter were down by -11.0% due to demand in Europe and the US remaining low, while exports through sea were softer sequentially, especially in southeast Asia. However, bicarbonate demand remained strong, fueled by global trends. “The current macro environment is uncertain and filled with challenges that were not foreseen at the start of the year. However, our resilient global and local to local business model will allow us to navigate these challenges,” said Solvay CEO Philippe Kehren. Solvay expects underlying EBITDA for 2025 to be between €1.0 billion and €1.1 billion, towards the lower half of the range if current market conditions and currency exchange rates prevail. Cost savings are expected at €200 million by the end of 2025.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US-based ExxonMobil Corp has signed a long-term agreement to sell around 250,000 tonnes/year of low-carbon ammonia to Japan’s Marubeni Corp, the companies said. The fuel will primarily be supplied to Kobe Power Plant – a fully owned subsidiary of Kobe Steel Ltd – in Hyogo prefecture, located in the west of Japan, the US oil and gas major said in a statement on 7 May. Marubeni has also agreed to acquire a stake in ExxonMobil’s upcoming low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia facility, located in Baytown, Texas, the Japan-based trading firm said. A final investment decision on the Baytown plant is expected in 2025, and once running, it can produce up to 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of low-carbon hydrogen daily, ExxonMobil said. “By using American-produced natural gas we can boost global energy supply, support Japan’s decarbonization goals and create jobs at home,” said Barry Engle, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions. “Marubeni will take this first step together with ExxonMobil in the aim of establishing a global low-carbon ammonia supply chain for Japan through the supply of low-carbon ammonia to the Kobe Power Plant,” said Yoshiaki Yokota, a senior managing executive at Marubeni. “Additionally, we aim to collaborate beyond this supply chain and strive towards the launch of a global market for low-carbon ammonia,” Yokota said. Financial details of the transactions were not announced. Kobe Power Plant aims to co-fire low-carbon ammonia with existing fuel by Japan’s fiscal year 2030, supporting the reduction in CO2 emissions.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem-Idesa (BI) officially launched the Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM) on Wednesday, according to a notice from the company. After many years in the making, and at some points, serious doubts about the companies involved managing to put together the necessary capital expenditure (capex) for the terminal, in March ICIS could visit the almost-finished facilities. Braskem Idesa’s executives were relieved to finally see the long-running construction almost finished. Up to now, Braskem Idesa has been importing ethane by ship, a system called Fast Track. Before and during that, Braskem also depended on Mexico’s state-owned energy major Pemex for supply of ethane. However, beleaguered Pemex, after years of falling output, rising debts, and mismanagement, did not follow the agreement on several occasions and its ethane supply would fall short of what it had been agreed, leading to Braskem Idesa not having the feedstock needed to produce PE. Sources close to the situation reported to ICIS last year that Pemex only got serious about the ethane supply when threatened with being taken to arbitrage international court – because it is state-owned, that would have been the necessary course of action. As the ribbon was cut on Wednesday, most executives present could now focus on the future – undoubtedly more promising having its own terminal to import the feedstocks needed. Braskem Idesa holds a 50% stake in the terminal with Advario, the Netherlands-based engineering services provider. The terminal will allow BI to import 80,000 barrels/day, enabling the company to operate at 100% of its capacity at its integrated polyethylene (PE) Ethylene XXI complex in Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. The Braskem Idesa cracker in Coatzacoalcos has 1.05m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity and downstream capacities of 750,000 tonnes/year of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 300,000 tonnes/year of low-density polyethylene (LDPE). In an interview with ICIS in March, the CEO at TQPM, Cleantho de Paiva, said the terminal would benefit Mexican petrochemicals at large, not just Braskem Idesa, by allowing the feedstocks it was consuming up to now to be released to other producers. “This project has a very important impact on the development of the national petrochemical industry, because it’s precisely to complement access to raw materials that we lack today. With a capacity to import up to 80,000 barrels per day of ethane, this will significantly exceed the 63,000 barrels Braskem Idesa currently requires for its operations,” said Cleantho de Paiva. “The issue of the lack of ethane in the country is structural. Since the US is the largest producer and exporter of petrochemical ethane, building this terminal gives us access to import sufficient raw material.” “When the terminal comes into operation, Pemex, which currently has an obligation to supply a certain amount to Braskem Idesa, will no longer have it and will be able to direct this raw material to its own petrochemical complexes and resume its operating capacity,” he added. Braskem Idesa is a joint venture made up of Braskem (75%) and Mexican chemical producer Grupo Idesa (25%). PE is the most widely used plastic in the world, primarily found in packaging including plastic bags, plastic films and geomembranes. Article thumbnail: The terminal as seen in March Source: ICIS Additional reporting by Johnathan Lopez

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at AccuWeather are predicting a dynamic 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins 1 June, but noted that the first tropical storm of the year could emerge in just a couple of weeks. “Around the middle of May, a large, slow-spinning area in the atmosphere could develop somewhere around Central America, overlapping with part of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean,” Brian Lada, meteorologist and senior content editor, said. “This phenomenon, known as the Central American Gyre, can sometimes lay the groundwork for a tropical depression or tropical storm to take shape.” AccuWeather said this is the best chance so far this year for the first named tropical storm of 2025 to develop, both in the Caribbean and in the eastern Pacific, although meteorologists currently say the odds of development are low. Tropical storms and hurricanes pose significant risks to the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. They can also disrupt oil and gas production in the US Gulf. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the US Gulf accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. While the season runs from 1 June to 30 November, September has seen the most tropical depressions since 2000, as shown in the following chart. The chart also shows that it is not that uncommon to see tropical depressions in May. 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AccuWeather predicts 13-18 named storms, with 7-10 likely to become hurricanes and 3-5 of those being major hurricanes, as shown in the following table. The meteorological firm is predicting 3-6 of the hurricanes to have direct impacts to the US. Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour Meteorologists also warn that the season could be like 2024 when several “super-charged” storms caused damage and loss of life. In 2024, Beryl entered the record books as the earliest Category 5 on record, Helene pummeled the southeast US with catastrophic rain and flooding, and Milton tore across Florida with deadly flooding and dozens of tornadoes. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said one of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms. Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages and will continue to run warm throughout most of the year. This will prime storms for explosive development. “A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” DaSilva said. The OHC measures not only the temperature of the water but also how deep the warm water extends, DaSilva said. A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean’s surface. AREAS MOST LIKELY FOR HURRICANE LANDFALLS DaSilva said northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season, as shown in the following map. “Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts,” DaSilva said. Colorado State University’s Weather and Climate Research department said in its initial forecast on 3 April it is predicting 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four of them becoming major hurricanes. CSU will update its forecast on 11 June, 9 July, and 6 August. A hurricane season forecast is expected soon from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating trade tensions with the US are casting a shadow over Vietnam’s growth trajectory in 2025, despite continued growth in exports as well as lower inflation. Inflation will stay below the government’s target of 4.5% to 5% this year – Moody’s Industrial output to slow due to poorer global demand, US tariffs 2025 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.8% from 6.5% Headline inflation rose by 3.1% year on year in April, unchanged from March, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also remained at 3.1%, data by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) showed on 6 May. Industrial production growth in April slowed to 8.9% year on year, down from a revised 9.9% in March, displaying early signs of pressure on the manufacturing sector. “We expect growth to slow this year as reduced global demand and higher tariffs on Vietnamese goods in the US hurt manufacturing,” financial intelligence firm Moody’s Analytics said in a note on 6 May. Externally, Vietnam’s exports surged 19.8% year on year in April, outpacing March’s 14.5% rise, while imports jumped 22.9%, up from 19% previously. The country still posted a goods trade surplus of $600m in April, though markedly lower than the $1.6bn recorded in March. The US remained Vietnam’s largest export destination through the first four months of the year, but this position is increasingly uncertain. In early April, US President Donald Trump floated a 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports, which was quickly revised to a temporary 10% levy for 90 days pending trade talks. Moody’s Analytics expects Vietnam’s export growth to slow over the remainder of 2025 as the impact of higher US tariffs hits the manufacturing sector. It has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 5.8% from 6.5% to reflect US trade policy and rising tariffs. As part of its negotiation efforts with US trade officials which will begin on 7 May, Hanoi has proposed eliminating tariffs on US imports and could increase sourcing from the US to offset trade pressures. The government is aiming for 8% GDP growth for 2025 despite risks from US tariffs. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s inflation turned negative for the first time since March 2024, falling 0.22% year on year in April 2025 amid lower costs for energy products and personal care products, the country’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) said on 6 May. Inflation falls 0.22% amid lower crude prices Economic uncertainty, US trade war weigh on GDP Thailand GDP projected to grow by up to 2.0% in 2025 Core inflation – excluding fuel and fresh food prices – rose 0.98% in April, while there was a 0.21% decrease in inflation month on month from March. “The trend of the general inflation rate in May 2025 is expected to be at a level close to April 2025,” the TPSO said. Crude oil prices are falling and gasoline prices are expected to trend downwards, contributing to a negative consumer price index (CPI). The continuation of state subsidies would also weigh on the CPI, keeping it negative. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) reduced its key interest rate to 1.75% from 2.00% on 30 April, citing the US tariffs and its global trade war causing uncertainty in the economy. “The prevailing monetary policy framework seeks to maintain price stability, support sustainable growth and preserve financial stability,” the BOT said. “The Thai economy is projected to expand at a slower pace than anticipated, with more downside risks due to uncertainty in major economies’ trade policies and a decline in the number of tourists,” it added. Accordingly, Thailand’s GDP forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to around 1.3% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, if trade tensions intensify and US tariffs are set at higher rates, according to the BOT. On the other hand, if the 10% baseline tariffs by the US remain, Thailand’s GDP growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, the BOT said. Further rate cuts are anticipated by Singapore-based UOB Global Economics and Market Research, possibly as early as the BOT’s next meeting in June, to support growth. “This reflects the central bank’s continued focus on maintaining sufficient policy space and its view that the full impact of global trade tensions would become more apparent in the second half of 2025,” UOB said in a note on 30 April. Inflation is expected to remain below the lower bound of the BOT’s target range of 1%–3%. Focus article by Jonathan Yee