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Speciality Chemicals16-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Strong service sector
performance and robust exports through 2024
amid cooling inflation points to the eurozone
economy bottoming out following the emergence
of tentative green shoots during the first
quarter of the year, the IMF said.
The organisation upped its forecast for
eurozone growth to 0.9% for 2024, a 0.1
percentage point increase from the previous
forecast in April, on the back of growing
evidence that the bloc may have put the low
point of the economic cycle behind it.
Wage growth is expected to drive consumption,
while loosening monetary policy could drive an
uptick in investment, the IMF said, although
players in sectors such as construction see the
impact of rate cuts being slow to ripple
through the market.
With manufacturing still underperforming
compared to services, as highlighted by
Eurostat data on Monday showing that EU
industrial output shrank month on month in May
on the back of productivity declines across all
most sub-sectors.
Eurozone industrial activity was stagnant in
April, with March the only month to see output
increase month on month, according to Eurostat
data.
This slower manufacturing sector recovery is
likely to drag on economic escape trajectory in
countries like Germany, which the IMF projects
will see GDP growth of 0.2% this year.
Other member states such as Spain are likely to
see considerably stronger growth, the agency
added, increasing its 2024 GDP growth forecast
for the country by 0.5 percentage points to
2.4%.
Investment analysts have projected greater
political stability in the UK after a general
election delivering a strong mandate to the
Labour Party and five years until the next
election, and the IMF has upped its forecast
for the country. UK GDP is now expected to
stand at 0.7% this year a 0.2 percentage point
increase from the IMF’s April outlook.
The impact of cyclical factors buffeting global
markets has receded, despite still-high
shipping costs due to the ongoing Red Sea
disruption, and overall economic activity is
shifting closer to actual potential, according
to the IMF.
“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy
remains remarkably resilient, with steady
growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly
as it rose,” said IMF chief economist
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Global growth is expected to have bottomed out
at 2.3% in 2022 following an inflation spike to
9.4% that year, and growth is expected to stand
at 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025.
Inflation has come down since then, allowing
for a modest rate cut by the European Central
Bank, but the pace of disinflation has slowed,
the IMF noted, with the service sector momentum
buoying European growth also propping up
inflation.
The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis
points in June, but markets are not projecting
another when its monetary policy committee
convenes on Thursday. The US Federal Reserve is
yet to cut rates, with officials guiding for
just one reduction this year.
US central bank caution is feeding through to
emerging market central banks, the IMF noted.
“A number of central banks in emerging market
economies remain cautious in regard to cutting
rates owing to external risks triggered by
changes in interest rate differentials and
associated depreciation of those economies’
currencies against the dollar,” it said.
Europe is showing fewer signs of economic
overheating than the US, which is likely to see
slightly slower than expected growth this year
as the labour market slows and consumption
drops. US GDP is expected to be 2.6% this year,
according to the IMF.
“Unlike in the United States, there is little
evidence of overheating [in the eurozone], and
the European Central Bank will need to
carefully calibrate the pivot toward monetary
easing to avoid an inflation undershoot,”
Gourinchas said.
Economic scarring also remains more apparent in
the developing world, with many nations still
struggling to turn the page from the aftermath
of the pandemic compared to economies like the
US, which has already moved past pre-COVID
growth levels.
Focus article by Tom
Brown.
Thumbnail photo: Outside the IMF’s
Washington, DC headquarters (Source: Gripas
Yuri/ABACA/Shutterstock)
Ammonia16-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Caprolactam (capro) availability
in Europe has been very tight until recently,
following a shortage of sulphur and low
downstream demand. However, slow capro demand
has helped to balance the market.
Senior capro editor Marta Fern joins senior
fertilizer editors Julia Meehan and Sylvia
Traganida to discuss current developments and
what lies ahead for the market.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas16-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US overtook the Middle
East for the first time as China’s largest
supplier of propane and butane in the first
half of 2024.
US, Mideast account for 90% of China’s
propane, butane imports in past two years
US’ share to China’s LPG imports at 49.4%
in H1
China H1 propane imports up 18%; butane
imports down 15%
Listen to ICIS LPG analysts Yan Wang and Shihao
Zhou as they discuss the drivers behind the
changes in data and the preferences of major
Chinese importers.
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Hydrogen16-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In a bid to achieve its
ambitious emissions targets, China is ramping
up efforts to boost low-carbon hydrogen
production through regulatory reforms.
While hydrogen production and demand in China
have steadily increased in recent years,
renewable hydrogen – a crucial element in
decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries – still
makes up less than 2% of the country’s total
hydrogen output.
China has committed to peaking carbon emissions
by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by
2060.
ICIS Asia deputy news editor Nurluqman Suratman
and ICIS analyst Yu Yunfeng delve into the
latest developments in China’s hydrogen
industry on this podcast.
China’s 2023 Hydrogen Production: 37
million tonnes, 4.5% year-on-year growth
Trade Tensions: EU concerns about unfair
competition
Emerging Trend: Transportation sector to be
second largest hydrogen user
Polyethylene16-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: Understanding what was
going to happen to petrochemicals capacity
additions in China used to be easy as all you
had to do was read the state-run press.
I am referring to comments in the local media
way back in 2014 that China was going to push
much harder towards petrochemicals
self-sufficiency.
This helps explain why in products such as
polypropylene (PP), China’s percentages of
capacity over demand could this year exceed
100%.
But conversations with industry sources
indicate that interpreting what will happen
next to China’s capacity growth has become way
more complex.
Let’s start with the decision to cap China’s
refinery capacity at some 1 billion tonnes a
year from 2027 onwards up to at least 2040.
This is a huge change from 2000-2026 when
capacity is forecast to increase by more than
250%.
The reason for the cap on refinery capacity is
that China wants 40% of its car fleet to
comprise electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. It
also wants all new car sales to be EVs by that
year.
At first glance, this indicates that China
won’t have sufficient local petrochemicals
feedstock to maintain its aggressive
self-sufficiency push. One could thus reach the
conclusion that deficits or imports will rise
given the weaker economics of importing
feedstocks.
But local refineries may be turned into
petrochemicals feedstock centers.
As local transportation fuels demand declines,
maintaining good refinery operating rates may
hinge on China’s ability to export increasing
quantities of gasoline and diesel which in a
world of increasing trade tensions may be
difficult.
I had thought that China’s push towards peak
carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality
before 2060 would make it difficult to get
approval for heavy industrial projects for
start-up after 2030. Now, though, I’ve been
told that the push to reduce carbon emissions
is already making it hard to win approvals.
Each province in China has reportedly been
given a carbon budget. If a province wants to
make room in its budget for a heavy industrial
project, it might have to shut down an existing
plant.
Combine this with the small scale of some
petrochemicals plants in China and we will or
already are seeing closures of older plants to
make way for new facilities, I’ve been told.
This especially applies to the more developed
provinces with high carbon output.
If all of this is true, do not assume that this
is automatically good news for all
petrochemicals exporters to China because of
the demographic-driven demand slowdown, China’s
sustainability push and the country’s closer
relationship with Saudi Arabia.
As I’ve been stressing over the last three
years, events in China point to a much more
confused and blurred picture. Don’t panic and
embrace confusion as this is the only sensible
response.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Ammonia15-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US crops continue to be making
steady progress despite the recent stormy
weather and elevated temperatures persisting
with there now being 41% of corn silking and
51% of soybeans blooming, according to the
latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA)
weekly crop progress report.
For the corn crop, this current pace of silking
is above the 40% rate achieved in 2023 as well
as the five-year average of 32%.
Corn reaching the dough stage is now at 8% of
the crop, which is ahead of the 6% achieved
last year and the five-year average of 4%.
For corn conditions, the USDA showed them as
unchanged week on week with there still being
3% of the crop rated as very poor and 6% as
poor, with 23% considered fair, 52% labeled as
good and 16% as excellent.
For soybeans, there is 51% of the acreage which
has reached blooming, which is equal to the 51%
mark from 2023 but the current pace of the crop
is ahead of the five-year average of 44%.
Soybean acreage which is setting pods increased
to 18%, which is slightly above the 17% level
seen last season and is higher than the
five-year average of 12%.
For soybean conditions, there continues to be
2% of the crop viewed as very poor with 6%
remaining as poor, with 24% still considered
fair.
The USDA now lists 56% of the acreage as good
with there now being 12% viewed as excellent.
In harvesting updates, the crop report reflects
that winter wheat is now 71% completed, which
is farther along than 53% achieved in 2023 and
above the five-year average of 62%.
Currently, Arkansas and Oklahoma have finished
their acreage, followed closely by several
states now at 97% completed, including Missouri
and Texas.
Ammonia15-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Logistics firm Stolthaven
Terminals announced that in cooperation with
Global Energy Storage (GES), it has been
selected as the only potential operator to
design, build and operate a green ammonia
terminal in Brazil to be located within the
industrial export zone at Pecem in the state of
Ceara.
The Port of Pecem Authority, referred to as
CIPP, awarded the rights to the partnership
after a 15-month tender process involving
global storage providers.
Stolthaven said this development will see the
production of green hydrogen and ammonia and
allow offshore markets access to one of the
most competitive sources of this renewable
energy.
During the next phase, with the involvement of
all parties including ammonia producers, the
basic engineering of the terminals will be
undertaken before confirmation of the official
contract.
In 2023, Stolthaven Terminals and GES agreed
upon a partnership to develop and operate an
export terminal for hydrogen and its
derivatives with Stolthaven already having a
local presence in Brazil with 42 years of
experience as a storage provider in the Port of
Santos.
“We are proud to be chosen by CIPP as the right
partner for its Hydrogen Hub. This is one more
step towards executing our strategy for growth
and supporting our customers in transitioning
to green energy,” said Marcelo Schmitt,
Stolthaven Santos general manager.
“Brazil is fast becoming a new export
powerhouse for biofuels and renewable energies
and our extensive local and global experience,
together with the expertise of our partner GES,
will make it a successful and exciting
development for the storage industry.”
Potassium Sulphate (SOP)15-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Brownfield exploration company
Silver Valley Metals announced it has signed an
asset purchase agreement for the Ranger-Page
project in Idaho which will allow it to refocus
efforts at its lithium and potash project in
central Mexico.
The firm said the decision came after careful
consideration of its options about how to move
forward in the most effective and least capital
dilutive way.
With two significant projects and a share
structure that remains intact, the company said
entering a sale with Silver Dollar Resources
Incorporated was considered to be the most
strategic option.
Part of the decision was based on them having
continued participation in the Ranger-Page
project through its 12% equity stake in Silver
Dollar.
Silver Valley Metals CEO Brandon Rook said
selling the Ranger-Page project will help
relieve the company from having to undergo
substantial capital dilution in order to meet
the financial obligations it has over the next
15 months.
“We believe there is strong upside to Silver
Dollar’s share value because of its tier one
assets in their portfolio today. With this
transaction, Silver Valley avoids diluting its
shares on a 2X plus multiple and adds dollars
to the treasury at the same time,” said Rook.
Following the transaction, the company said it
will be in a good position to refocus efforts
at its lithium and sulphate of potash (SOP)
project located in the states of Zacatecas and
San Luis Potosi.
Comprised of 4,056 hectares over three mineral
concessions, the project’s inferred mineral
resource has demonstrated that the area
contains 12.3 million tonnes of SOP and 243,000
tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent.
Petrochemicals15-Jul-2024
NEW YORK (ICIS)–US-based chemical and building
materials producer Westlake Corp has appointed
Jean-Marc Gilson as president and CEO,
effective 15 July. He succeeds Albert Chao, who
becomes executive chairman of the Westlake
board of directors.
Gilson most recently served as president and
CEO of Japan-based Mitsubishi Chemical Group
from 2021 until March 2024. From 2014-2020,
Gilson served as CEO of France-based Roquette,
a family-owned global leader in plant-based
ingredients and a leading provider of
pharmaceutical excipients.
James Chao, the current chairman of the board,
will become senior chairman. All these
appointments take effect 15 July.
“I am excited to welcome Jean-Marc as the
newest addition to Westlake’s management team.
Westlake is in a very strong position supported
by a world-class team, and, having served as
the CEO of Westlake for the last 20 years, now
is the right time to implement our succession
plan,” said Albert Chao, who noted Gilson’s 25
years of executive experience in the chemical
industry in the US, Europe and Asia.
“I am honored and humbled to become the second,
and first non-family, CEO of Westlake,” said
Gilson.
“I have long admired Westlake as a
best-in-class company at the forefront of
delivering life-enhancing products through
innovation in essential materials and building
products,” he added.
Jean-Marc Gilson also becomes president and CEO
and a director of Westlake Chemical Partners GP
LLC, the general partner of Westlake Chemical
Partners LP. Albert Chao will become executive
chairman and James Chao will become senior
chairman of the Westlake Chemical Partners GP
LLC board of directors.
UBS analyst Joshua Spector said the timing
comes as a “bit of surprise”. The Chao family
owns around 75% of Westlake Corp, and Gilson’s
25 years of experience skews towards specialty
chemicals, he noted.
Key questions will be around Westlake’s
strategy and commitment to growing the building
products business, Spector added.
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