SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Colombian economy picked up strength at the end of 2024, and higher spending on gross capital formation such as petrochemical-intensive public works and machinery could see “close to 3%” growth in 2025, according to the country’s central bank. The Banco de la Republica published this week minutes of its monetary policy committee meeting earlier in December which resulted in an interest rate cut of 25-basis points to 9.5%. In its final assessment of the economy’s performance in 2024, the central bank said inflation was converging towards its target of 3%, but said it will do so “more slowly than projected” on due to a weaker Colombian peso and higher for longer US interest rates. The rate of inflation in Colombia stood at 5.2% in November, down from 5.41% in October, the fifth month of decline. The central bank also called on Gustavo Petro’s cabinet to be realistic about public finances and fiscal discipline, and questioned whether fiscal parameters the government had set itself for 2025 will be met. TO-PREPANDEMIC LEVELSHowever, overwhelming sentiment in the minutes was one of optimism about an economy which has a more secure footing in healthier growth, with an increase in gross capital formation a key part of that. In fact, after sluggish growth posted since the pandemic, next year the Colombian economy could hit some of the indicators in line with those pre-2020. Economic growth reached 2.0% in Q3, said the bank, driven by a 20.3% jump in gross capital formation. The Economic Tracking Indicator showed 3.1% growth in October. Gross capital formation measures economy-wide investment in fixed assets plus inventory changes. Fixed assets include infrastructure improvements, machinery and equipment purchases, and construction of buildings like schools, homes, offices, and industrial facilities. “They [board members] consider there is room to further propel the rebound in gross capital formation enjoyed during the third quarter to ensure greater economic dynamism that will bring the Colombian economy closer to the growth rates observed before the pandemic. In this regard, they note that the 1.8% GDP growth projected for Colombia in 2024 is lower than the average GDP expansion recently estimated for Latin America (2.1%),” said the minutes. “They stress that the recent recovery in specific components of gross fixed capital formation, such as civil works and machinery and equipment, which contribute more than 50% to fixed investment, suggests that an improvement of close to 3.0% could be reached in 2025 for Colombia, which is higher than the forecast for Latin America (2.3%), and will help it recover the position it held for almost a decade before 2020.” Healthy economic indicators can also lead to higher prices on the back of strong demand, so the central bank also adopted a cautious stance on monetary easing. The bank projects slower inflation convergence to target in 2025, citing currency depreciation pressures and their impact on prices, adding that additional inflationary pressures are expected from minimum wage increases and regulated price adjustments. Market volatility has increased due to concerns over 2025 budget financing gaps and recent reforms to regional funding transfers, while external pressures have increased due to tighter global financial conditions, a slower pace of US interest rates cuts and falling commodity prices which have affected Colombia’s terms of trade. Colombia’s state-owned energy major Ecopetrol is a key income generator for the Treasury. “They [board members] agreed that 2025 may bring a challenging macroeconomic scenario that requires vigilance and harmonization in both monetary and fiscal policy design,” the bank said. Earlier in December, Colombia’s statistical office DANE said industrial production expanded 1.1% in October year on year, while the nation’s leading economic indicator showed broad-based growth acceleration across major sectors. The reading was in line with the manufacturing PMI index for November, which showed broad-based improvement on better demand. Meanwhile, DANE’s main economic indicator for activity across the economy, also published earlier in December, rose 2.94% in October, year on year, an improvement from September’s downwardly revised 1.07% increase. Within petrochemicals, however, the story may be more mixed as domestic producers will continue to face stiff competition from competitive imports. All petrochemicals players interviewed by ICIS at the annual meeting of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) held in Colombia’s Cartagena in November, spoke of challenging market conditions in 2025. This included Ecopetrol’s petrochemicals division, its subsidiary producing polypropylene (PP) Essentia and plastics distributor Grupo Almatia. Prices closed the year with decreases. Latin American PP values, for instance, fell in Colombia and Chile on the back of competitive offers from abroad as well as lower feedstock costs. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez 

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS senior analyst Joanne Wang discusses the recent rebound in China’s ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) prices and gives a brief outlook for 2025. Some EVA plants switch to low density polyethylene (LDPE) production in Q4 on profit considerations EVA producers’ Q4 inventory low after destocking in the first three quarters Photovoltaic industry resumes replenishment in Q4, boosting demand ICN

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 20 December. NEWS Brazil’s chemicals likely to avoid higher tariffs as bilateral trade favors US – AbiquimBrazil’s chemicals producers are confident the sector would be mostly spared from potentially higher US import tariffs as the latter maintains a clear trade surplus in bilateral commerce, the country’s trade group Abiquim said to ICIS. Argentina’s manufacturing, construction output falls in OctoberOutput in Argentina’s petrochemicals-intensive construction and manufacturing kept falling in October, year on year, the country’s statistical office Indec said on Friday. Mexico’s central bank cuts rates by quarter point to 10.0%, signals further cutsMexico’s central bank on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 10.0% and hinted at steeper cuts ahead. Colombia’s central bank lowers rates by quarter of a point to 9.5%Colombia’s central bank on Friday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 9.5%. Argentina’s YPF agrees with Shell to continue building LNG export projectYPF and global energy major Shell have signed an agreement to develop the first phase of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project, the Argentinian state-owned oil and gas major said. Brazil’s chemicals output up 1.6% in OctoberBrazil’s chemicals output rose by 1.6% in October, year on year, while plastics and rubber production increased by 4.9%, according to the country’s statistical office IBGE. Brazil central bank steps up currency defence as real slidesBrazil’s central bank has mounted four currency interventions this week, spending nearly $6 billion to stem the decline in the Brazilian real (R). Chile cuts rates as growth concerns outweigh inflation risksChile’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate this week by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.0%, balancing concerns over stubborn inflation with signs of economic weakness. Pemex remains ‘financially vulnerable’ as output flattens, crude prices fall – FitchMexico’s state-owned crude major Pemex “remains financially vulnerable” as its output is likely to flatten and crude oil prices are set to fall, US credit rating agency Fitch said. MOVES: Brazil Potash appoints fertilizer industry veteran Schmidt as board executive chairmanProducer Brazil Potash, which is advancing the $2.5 billion Autazes project within the state of Amazonas, has appointed fertilizer industry veteran Mayo Schmidt as the executive chairman of its Board of Directors effective 6 January. PRICING LatAm PE domestic, international prices stable as year draws to closeDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as unchanged across Latin American countries. LatAm PP domestic, international prices steady as 2024 endsDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices were steady across Latin American countries. Braskem Idesa seeks January PE price increase in MexicoBraskem Idesa (BI) is seeking a price increase of $110/tonne on high density polyethylene (HDPE) and for low density polyethylene (LDPE) as of 1 January, according to a customer letter.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 20 December. CP Chem’s US, Qatar JV projects on track for 2026 startup – Phillips 66 Two world-scale joint venture projects being developed by Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy remain on track to start operations in 2026, Phillips 66 said on Monday. Canada in turmoil as finance minister resigns, CEOs worry about fiscal policies Canadian CEOs and business trade groups are warning about the state of Canada’s fiscal policies. US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, expects fewer cuts in 2025 The Federal Reserve lowered on Wednesday its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point while reducing the number of cuts it expects to make in 2025. INSIGHT: US Gulf chems face more freezing spells amid warmer winters Chemical plants and refineries along the Gulf Coast of the US will likely face another winter that will be warmer than usual but punctuated with brief periods of freezing temperatures, which could disrupt operations. Oil prices fall on stronger US dollar, looming US government shutdown Oil prices fell sharply on Friday on a stronger US dollar and amid a looming US government shutdown over the failure to pass a budget bill in the House of Representatives. SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates surge as volumes pulled forward ahead of strike, tariffs Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US surged this week as importers pulled volumes forward ahead of the possible restart of the US Gulf and East Coast port strike and anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration.

LONDON (ICIS)–The UK economy was weaker than initially thought in Q3 with GDP showing zero growth, according to official data on Monday. There was no growth in the services sector, while a 0.7% increase in construction was offset by a 0.4% fall in production. The Q3 GDP figure was revised down from a first estimate of 0.1% growth, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Quarterly growth has trended down throughout 2024 with GDP at 0.7% in Q1, 0.4% in Q2 and 0% in Q3. On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.1% in September and October, according to the ONS. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) held its key interest rate at 4.75% as inflation continued to firm despite weakening industrial activity. Economic growth in the eurozone and EU has been more positive with Q3 GDP rising by 0.4% in both blocs from the previous quarter.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 20 December. Stagnant manufacturing, overcapacity, looming trade war weigh on Europe chems in 2025 Europe’s petrochemical sector will be under even more pressure in 2025 as demand from the region’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction, global overcapacity gets worse and amid the possibility of increased exports from China and the US. Europe melamine December contracts roll over, Q4 contracts rise on margin pressure European December melamine contracts were assessed steady, in line with market feedback. Europe paraxylene December contract price up €5/tonne The Europe paraxylene (PX) December contract reference price rose €5/tonne from November’s levels. German business sentiment weakest since May 2020 German business sentiment dropped to its lowest point since May 2020 in December, according to the latest data from the Ifo Institute on Tuesday. Eurozone private sector closes out 2024 in contraction as manufacturing slows The eurozone private sector ended the year on a bearish note as output contracted driven by a weakening manufacturing sector, which offset a return to growth for services.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 20 December. Study on Oman’s Duqm petrochemical complex to be completed in 2025 By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 15:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A feasibility study for a joint venture petrochemical complex in the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Oman will be completed in 2025, an official from Oman’s national oil and gas company OQ told ICIS. UPDATE: South Korea bourse closes lower, won softer after Yoon’s impeachment By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s benchmark stock market index was closed lower on Monday, snapping four straight days of gains, after the country’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over the weekend for imposing a short-lived martial law on 3 December. UPDATE: ChemOne’s Malaysia $5.3bn complex start-up delayed to Q4 2028 By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Dec-24 21:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ChemOne Group has delayed the start-up of its $5.3 billion Pengerang Energy Complex (PEC) in Johor, Malaysia to Q4 2028, after facing “complex financing” issues, the CEO of the project’s operator said on Monday. Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan to shut some PE, PP units in line with cracker shutdown By Izham Ahmad 17-Dec-24 12:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan will shut some of its downstream polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) plants to account for a reduction in feedstock after it shuts down one of its crackers in Pasir Gudang, according to market sources. INSIGHT: China economy ends 2024 on mixed note amid Trump 2.0 concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Dec-24 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic data in November were mixed, with weaker retail sales growth offset by some signs of stability in property prices and a slightly quicker industrial output growth, as policymakers brace for more US trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second time. INSIGHT: China oil demand to peak in 2026 as transportation fuel drags By Fanny Zhang 19-Dec-24 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to see its overall oil demand peaking in 2026 amid ongoing changes in the key transportation market, analysts said. Oil prices fall on stronger US dollar, looming US government shutdown By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell sharply on Friday on a stronger US dollar and amid a looming US government shutdown over the failure to pass a budget bill in the House of Representatives. Asia BD imports stay supported by China domestic market bull run By Ai Teng Lim 20-Dec-24 14:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment is buoyant in Asia’s butadiene (BD) import market as sellers chase higher selling targets, emboldened by what they perceive as strong buying power in China. Bank of Japan maintains interest rates as Nov core inflation surges By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 14:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its interest rates unchanged as inflation levels rose to 2.7% year on year in November, raising analyst expectations of a rate hike in Q1 2025.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) has announced the launch of the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity (VACI) program, which is a voluntary certification of the carbon footprint of ammonia production at a specific facility. The VACI is the first program of its kind with the industry group saying it is designed to provide ammonia consumers seeking to reduce emissions across their supply chains with an independent and certifiable carbon intensity score. TFI said the VACI certification framework will standardize the approach for calculating the carbon intensity of ammonia encompassing all aspects of ammonia manufacturing from feedstock production through the finished product at the plant gate. Producers will use the VACI standard to calculate the carbon intensity of ammonia produced at their facilities then an independent, third-party auditor will then verify or validate that the carbon intensity score is accurate. TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said ammonia is a critical input for both agriculture, emissions control and many commercial products including fabric and pharmaceuticals. “As agriculture and other industries increasingly look to develop more sustainable and resilient supply chains, the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program provides ammonia consumers with certifiable transparency that will allow them to quantify the positive impact using low-carbon ammonia has on their greenhouse gas emissions footprint,” said Rosenbusch. Ammonia production typically uses natural gas as a feedstock for its hydrogen component and is an energy-intensive process with substantial carbon dioxide emissions as a byproduct. Currently there are US ammonia producers who are investing in technologies to dramatically reduce emissions with the VACI enabling them to document the varying levels of emissions reduction these technologies provide. The VACI program was developed by TFI in collaboration with technical industry experts from producers CF Industries, LSB, Nutrien, OCI and Yara with guidance from Hinicio, a strategic and technical consulting firm specializing in hydrogen and its derivatives and industrial decarbonization. Facilities certified under the program include Nutrien at Redwater in Canada and CF Industries in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, with audits that have been completed. Audits for LSB Industries in El Dorado, Arkansas, and CVR Energy in Coffeyville, Kansas, in progress. TFI said the VACI is undertaking a 60-day public consultation period for ammonia consumers and stakeholders to provide feedback on the program and its methodology and intends to refine the program based on comments received.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US surged this week as importers pulled volumes forward ahead of the possible restart of the US Gulf and East Coast port strike and anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. Rates from Asia to both US coasts had been trending steadily lower since July. Rates from Shanghai to New York began stabilizing in October before surging by almost 17% this week, according to data from supply chain advisors Drewry. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles were falling steadily before jumping by almost 26% this week, as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Drewry has global average rates up by 8% this week, as shown in its World Container Index. Drewry expects an increase in rates on the transpacific trade in the coming week, driven by front-loading ahead of the looming port strike and possible tariffs. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also showed significant increases to both coasts. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, suggested that the pull-forward for the pending strike is largely over as the pre-15 January arrival window has closed. Levine thinks a strike – or at least a prolonged one – is unlikely now that President-elect Trump has backed the union in the dispute. But the anticipation of increased tariffs is still driving some unseasonal volume strength, Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STABLE Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were unchanged this week for most trade lanes ex-USG. For the USG to ARA, both spot cargoes and contract of affreightment (COA) nominations to northwest Europe took a slight dip this week, with minimal opportunities quoted but remained relatively flat week over week. COA volumes for January are still pending so it is not clear how much space will be available, but sentiment is that contract business will be strong, making spot space harder to find. Along the USG to Asia route, there was a bit more activity this week with January base oils, ethanol and vegoil requirements being quoted out in the market. The January chemical COAs are showing healthy levels, and most regulars are reporting that space is currently tight on paper. Most market participants expect rates to remain steady for the balance of the year. COA nominations are strong on the USG-Brazil trade lane with still some space available for the end of December. However, several traders were in the market with 10,000 tonnes of caustic soda ex-Point Comfort to Santos for loading on prompt dates. So far, no fixture has been reported yet, leaving this market overall quiet. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock