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Crude Oil24-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s central bank
effectively loosened its monetary policy
on Friday – by allowing a more gradual
appreciation of the Singapore dollar (S$) – as
inflationary pressures have eased.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS),
which utilizes foreign exchange as its primary
policy tool, reduced slightly the slope of the
Singapore dollar (S$) nominal effective
exchange rate (NEER) policy band to “ensure
medium-term stability”, it said in a statement.
The NEER refers to the value of Singapore
dollar against a basket of currencies of its
major trading partners.
The monetary policy easing on Friday was the
first since March 2020.
The width of the S$NEER policy band and the
level at which it is centered were left
unchanged, the central bank said.
“Overall, the pace of consumer price increases
has moderated across a broad range of goods and
services, and core inflation is presently low
and stable,” MAS said.
Singapore’s average core inflation in Q4 2024
fell to 1.9% from 2.7% in Q3.
MAS reduced its average core inflation forecast
for 2025 to 1.0-2.0%, down from 1.5-2.5%
previously.
Business cost- and demand-driven inflationary
pressures are expected to remain contained.
However, imported costs should stay moderate
amid projected global oil price declines and
favorable supply conditions in key food
commodity markets.
Singapore possesses no hydrocarbon resources
and imports crude oil for its refining and
petrochemical industries.
More than 100 global chemical firms, including
energy majors ExxonMobil and Shell, are housed
at its petrochemical hub Jurong Island.
Singapore’s GDP growth is forecast to moderate
to 1.0-3.0% in 2025, on
global trade policy changes, which could
weigh on the domestic manufacturing and
trade-related services sectors, said MAS.
As a trade-dependent economy, Singapore has a
reliance on global commerce, meaning changes
are likely to weigh on its domestic economy.
“Global economic policy uncertainty has risen
since the October [2024] monetary policy
review, mainly reflecting expectations of
increasing trade policy frictions,” MAS added.
Following a period of frontloading of exports
amid fears of Donald Trump’s America First
administration imposing tariffs on foreign
goods, manufacturing and trade activity
globally is anticipated to normalize.
Still-strong wage growth amid supportive labor
market conditions should support steady
consumer spending in advanced economies, though
global growth could slow over 2025.
($1 = S$1.35)
Maleic Anhydride23-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The moratorium on federal
permits for wind projects will likely have
little effect on the US industry and on the
epoxy resins it consumes because most turbines
are built on private land.
Wind turbines make up a fast-growing market for
epoxy resins. They also consume unsaturated
polyester resins (UPR) and lubricants.
The moratorium on federal wind permits was
among the numerous orders that US President
Donald Trump issued on his first day in office.
The effect on the moratorium will likely be
small, since only 5% of utility-scale wind
capacity is generated by turbines on federal
land,
according to the US Department of the
Interior.
Some of this may be attributed to the share of
wind power installed in Texas, most of which is
private and not owned by the federal
government.
Out of the 150 gigawatts (GW) of installed US
wind energy, more than 41GW was in Texas as of
2023,
according to a report issued by the Ernest
Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Out of the new wind capacity installed in 2023,
1.3GW out of 6.5GW was installed in Texas, the
report said.
Expansion of wind energy has been supported by
a federal production tax credit, according to
the report, and Trump did not rescind that tax
credit in his executive order.
State policies also support wind energy, and
those policies should continue regardless of
the executive orders.
The trend that is slowing down the wind
industry is high interest rates. Those, as well
as interconnection and siting, helped make 2023
the lowest in terms of installed capacity since
2014, according to the report.
LARGE PIPELINE FOR OFFSHORE WIND
PROJECTSThe US has a large
pipeline of possible offshore wind projects,
with 932 megawatts (MW) under construction,
according to a 2023 report from the Department
of Energy. Another 1,100MW off capacity
have received local permits and federal
approval of its construction and operational
plan.
Nearly 21GW are in the permitting stage, but it
is unclear whether these offshore projects will
need any federal permits. State jurisdiction of
submerged lands can extend out to three or nine
nautical miles, depending on whether the land
is under the Atlantic or Pacific ocean or
whether it is under the Gulf of Mexico.
Offshore wind capacity totaled only 42MW,
making up a tiny share of total US capacity,
according to the 2023 report.
TRADE GROUP OPPOSES
MORATORIUMDespite the small
number of wind projects on federal land, the
American Clean Power Association (ACP) spoke
out against the moratorium.
“ACP strongly opposes blanket measures to halt
or impede development of domestic wind energy
on federal lands and waters. The contradiction
between the energy-focused executive orders is
stark: while on one hand the administration
seeks to reduce bureaucracy and unleash energy
production, on the other it increases
bureaucratic barriers, undermining domestic
energy development and harming American
businesses and workers,” the group said.
“For too long, we have witnessed careening
policy restrictions on the development of
energy resources on our nation’s vast federal
lands. Regardless of administration, ’some of
the above’ strategies are not good energy
policy. No nation can achieve energy dominance
absent consistent policy that moves beyond the
idea that energy systems have partisan
character,” the ACP said.
The paltry amount of wind power installed on
federal land hides its potential. Federal lands
have the potential to produce 875GW of
land-based wind energy,
according to a report issued in 2025 by the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).
If the most stringent siting constraints are
assumed, then federal land could produce 70GW
of land-based wind.
Europe provides another illustration of the
potential growth for wind power. It has 278GW
of power capacity, with 243GW onshore,
according to Wind Power, a trade group.
Capacity should grow by 22GW/year from
2024-2030.
The trade group Epoxy Europe estimates that
wind energy consumes 40,000 tonnes/year of the
epoxy resins produced by its members.
DETAILS ON THE
MORATORIUMUnder
one of his executive orders, Trump
requested that the government conduct a review
of federal wind leasing and permitting
policies.
Until the government completes that review, no
new or renewed approvals, rights of way,
permits, leases or loans will be issued for
onshore or offshore federal wind projects by
the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of
Agriculture, the Secretary of Energy, the
administrator of the Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and the heads of all other
relevant government agencies.
Moreover, the government will not lease the
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for wind
projects.
Existing wind leases in the OCS will be
reviewed to determine if they should be amended
or terminated because of ecological, economic
and environmental reasons.
The government will review the future of
defunct and idle wind turbines and issue a
report that require their removal.
Trump also ordered that the Secretary of the
Interior impose a temporary moratorium on the
Lava Ridge wind project, which is being
developed by Magic Valley Energy in the state
of Idaho. It would have up to 400 turbines and
produce more than 1GW.
Magic Valley Energy is a subsidiary of LS
Power.
Insight article by Al
Greenwood
(Thumbnail shows wind turbines. Image by Jon
Santa Cruz/Shutterstock)
Speciality Chemicals23-Jan-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Wacker Chemie has started up two
new specialty silicones plants in Japan and
South Korea to meet growing demand in Asia, it
said on Thursday.
The facilities in Tsukuba, Japan and Jincheon,
South Korea, will meet rising demand from the
automotive and construction industries.
The Germany-based chemicals producer said it
invested an amount in the “double-digit million
euro range” in the expansion. It did not
disclose specific capacity figures.
Wacker said its’ Tsukuba site in Japan would
focus on the automotive sector, particularly
electric vehicles.
At Jincheon in South Korea, it aims to increase
the output of silicone sealants for the
construction industry.
As well as automotive and construction,
specialty silicones are used in the chemicals,
cosmetics, medical technology, energy,
electronics, paper and textiles sectors.
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Speciality Chemicals23-Jan-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Detailed modeling by Europe’s
principal chemicals trade association analyzes
different potential routes and technologies as
the industry moves towards its aim of carbon
neutrality by 2050.
Report aims to guide chemicals to 2050 EU
Green Deal goal of climate neutrality
Covers Scope 1, 2, 3 including embedded
carbon and end of life emissions
Modeling covers many types of technologies
Industry will compete with other sectors
for access to scarce resources
Report models the huge level of investment
required
Click
here to download Cefic’s report “The
Carbon Managers: Modelling Possible Pathways
for the EU Chemical Sector’s Transition Towards
Climate Neutrality and Circularity with
iC2050.”
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews Florie
Gonsolin, director industrial
transformation projects at Cefic, Nigel
Davis and John
Richardson from the ICIS market
development team and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Gas23-Jan-2025
Ministry of energy working with ministry of
finance to ease taxation regime
Romania developing renewables, nuclear, gas
and biomethane production by 2030
Priority is to improve interconnections
with Republic of Moldova
LONDON (ICIS)–Romania needs to develop liquid
markets and reduce taxes as it seeks to expand
its varied energy mix by the end of the decade,
the Romanian energy minister Sebastian-Ioan
Burduja told ICIS in an exclusive interview.
The minister said his priority is the
development of competitive markets, with the
ministry expected to submit a final proposal
for liberalization this month.
“It will be a gradual, cautious liberalization
which will ensure end consumers are protected
while also guaranteeing market liquidity and
competition,” he said.
Romania, one of the EU’s growing economies and
its largest gas producer, will
grow even further in importance with its
domestic gas production set to double once the
Neptun Deep offshore gas output reaches markets
in 2027.
The renewable capacity target in Romania is to
add 10GW, build large and small-scale nuclear
generation, alongside the potential to develop
2 billion cubic meters of
biomethane annually.
However, despite its resources and strategic
position, it has not been able to harness its
full potential because of an unpredictable
regulatory environment and a burdensome tax
regime.
Nevertheless, the minister whose mandate has
now been renewed following recent parliamentary
elections, is determined to address all
challenges.
MARKET AND TAX CHALLENGES
The ministry will work closely with the
regulator ANRE and the electricity exchange
OPCOM to remove barriers to free trading, he
said.
Another instrument the ministry is keen to
promote are contracts for difference (CfD) to
offer long-term stability for investors.
The CfD scheme in Romania has mobilized €3bn
for solar and wind projects, with 1.5GW of
capacity successfully tendered in 2024, the
minister said. Another 3.5GW will be tendered
in 2025.
On taxation, the ministry of energy is working
with the ministry of finance to streamline
regulations affecting the energy sector.
He also stressed the importance of removing
legal barriers that have been slowing access to
electricity or gas networks and insisted on the
need to build new capacity required to
encourage the energy transition, as well as
digitalize networks to bring more flexibility
to markets.
The ministry intends to support startups in the
energy sector through dedicated financing
schemes or public-private partnerships similar
to the Unicorn Factory Lisboa, a project
envisioned by Lisbon city council to expand the
entrepreneurial ecosystem from startups to
scaleups.
REGIONAL ROLE
Regionally, Romania intends to advance new
projects or develop existing ones, that would
enhance market integration and security of
supply.
“Our priority is to improve our
interconnections with the Republic of Moldova.
Projects include gas and electricity
interconnections, storing gas in Romania and
the completion of the 400kV
Suceava-Balti overhead power transmission
line,” he said.
Romania’s partnership with Moldova and the
region could be consolidated via the Vertical
Gas Corridor, which could bring natural gas
sourced primarily as regasified LNG in Greece
and shipped in reverse to Bulgaria, and further
north into Romania, Moldova and Ukraine.
One of the biggest challenges in developing
this corridor is the high
transmission costs charged by Romania’s gas
grid operator Transgaz. Companies active
regionally say it costs €15.46/MWh/day to ship
gas along the full route, with the Romanian
transmission tariff alone covering a third of
the full fee.
“We work closely with ANRE and transmission and
distribution system operators to analyze the
actual tariff structure and means to optimize
them,” Burduja told ICIS.
“We’re also focusing on […] upgrading and
digitalizing the infrastructure. These
investments could lead to reducing operating
expenses and implicitly lead to tariff
adjustments,” he said.
Furthermore, the ministry is working on the
establishment of a ‘green corridor’ connecting
Azerbaijan to Hungary via Georgia, a subsea
section of the Black Sea and Romania, he added.
BLACK SEA GAS
The most critical project for Romania and the
region, however, is the increase in domestic
gas production once output at the Neptun Deep
offshore bloc comes onstream in 2027.
The project, jointly developed by the Romanian
incumbent Romgaz and Austrian-Romanian OMV
Petrom, aims to bring up to 10bcm/year to the
market, boosting Romania’s annual production to
20bcm.
There were recent reports that
OMV Petrom had auctioned off small volumes as
part of the company’s strategy.
However, the minister said the bulk of gas
would be for internal use, as the country would
be looking to develop petrochemical
or pharmaceutical production.
Nevertheless, he said surplus volumes could be
considered for exports.
Finally, he noted the importance of taking
advantage of Romania’s significant agricultural
potential and develop a national biomethane
sector.
Companies say the country could produce as much
as 2bcm of biomethane annually.
“The ministry of energy recognizes this
opportunity and has initiated for the first
time ever in Romania the development of a new
financing instrument dedicated to advanced
biofuels, including biomethane through a
modernization fund,” he said, noting that at
least 5% of the final energy consumption in the
transport sector could come from biofuels by
2030.
Crude Oil23-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ExxonMobil has committed to
invest in carbon capture and storage (CCS)
facilities as well as a new petrochemical
complex in Indonesia, the biggest economy in
southeast Asia.
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed
between Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for
the Economy and ExxonMobil on the prospective
projects, the ministry said on 22 January.
The MoU aims to explore ExxonMobil’s
“investment potential in the construction of a
world-class petrochemical complex in Indonesia,
with an estimated investment value of $10
billion”, it said.
“ExxonMobil will build a project related to
CCS,” Indonesia’s coordinating minister for
economic affairs Airlangga Hartarto said in a
post on social media platform X on 22 January,
adding that the US oil and gas company will
also build a petrochemical plant.
“This MoU not only strengthens the national
petrochemical sector but also brings Indonesia
closer to its vision as a pioneer of green
technology at the global level,” Hartarto said.
ExxonMobil has yet to reply to ICIS queries on
the projects at the time of writing.
In November 2023, then Indonesian President
Joko Widodo had said that ExxonMobil is
planning to invest up to $15 billion in a
petrochemical project and CCS facilities in
Indonesia.
Indonesia is heavily reliant on imports of
petrochemicals, including polymers, amid
limited domestic production.
Its current sole integrated petrochemical
complex located in Cilegon, Banten province, is
operated by Chandra Asri Petrochemical
ExxonMobil and Indonesia’s state-owned energy
company Pertamina had announced plans last May
to do preliminary works to develop and build a
CCS hub in the Sunda-Asri basins in the Java
Sea, in northern coast of Java Island.
A preliminary study by the two companies
indicates the basin has the potential to store
up to 3 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2). The
project is estimated to require a $2 billion
investment.
Thumbnail image: A transport ferry
sailing toward the sea port in Merak, on Java
Island, from Sumatra island, in Indonesia, on
17 July 2024. (Adriana
Adie/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Speciality Chemicals22-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Container vessel operations
will begin at Port Houston at 19:00 local time
on Wednesday, while all Port Houston facilities
will begin normal operations on Thursday.
Port Houston closed all facilities on Tuesday,
and they will remain closed through Wednesday
because of a winter
storm that brought snow and icy
conditions to the region.
Container terminal truck gates closed Monday
afternoon and vessel operations were suspended
later that evening.
At the Port of New Orleans in Louisiana, both
Ports America and New Orleans Terminal will
remain closed through Thursday.
Ports America and New Orleans Terminal will run
gate operations on Saturday, 25 January.
Ethylene22-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Winter storm Enzo, which caused
a hard freeze along the US Gulf Coast, led to
widespread shutdowns among chemical plants and
refineries.
Companies shut down at least five ethylene
glycol (EG) units and at least eight crackers
because of bad weather. Other plants, such as a
propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit, also shut
down.
Pre-emptive shutdowns and operational
disruptions reported so far include:
BASF idles Geismar,
Louisiana, EO operations following winter
weather
BASF TotalEnergies cracker shuts down due
to weather
Dow’s Plaquemine, Louisiana, glycol ethers
site down following
winter weather
Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, glycol ethers site
down following
winter weather
Dow idles Taft,
Louisiana, EO site following winter weather
Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, ethanolamines site
down following
winter weather
Enterprise’s PDH1 unit in Texas has
unplanned shutdown
Formosa shuts Louisiana
PVC unit ahead of
freeze
GCGV Portland, Texas, EG
site down ahead of
freezing temperatures
Indorama’s Clear Lake, Texas, EG
site down for
winter weather
Indorama Lake Charles
cracker shut due to
weather
Indorama shuts Port
Neches, Texas, cracker ahead of winter storm
Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas,
ethanolamines unit down due to winter
weather
Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, EG
unit down ahead of
winter weather
Ingleside, Texas, cracker shut before
winter storm
LACC Lotte/Westlake Louisiana cracker and
EG unit down ahead of
winter weather
Lyondell Channelview, Texas,
crackers flaring on
operations issues
Lyondell La Porte, Texas, cracker
shutting due to
weather
Shell’s Geismar, Louisiana, EO, EG site
down following
winter weather
SHUTDOWNS AT REFINERIES AND
BIOFUELSMotiva’s refinery in
Port Arthur, Texas, experienced unexpected
interruptions and shutdowns of several critical
pieces of equipment, it said
in a filing with the Texas Commission on
Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The
disruptions caused emissions at a catalytic
reformer, a fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit
and a delayed coker unit.
Renewable Biofuels conducted a planned shutdown
at its biodiesel plant in Port Neches, Texas,
for freeze protection,
according to a filing with the TCEQ.
MIDSTREAM DISRUPTIONSIn
some cases, midstream companies reported freeze
offs and hydrates forming.
If these happen on a wide enough scale, they
could interrupt the supply of natural gas.
Chemical plants and refineries burn natural gas
to produce process heat, and power plants use
it to produce electricity.
PORTSPorts in Houston
and New Orleans
were closed through Wednesday because of
cold weather.
Container vessel operations will
begin at Port Houston at 19:00 local time
on Wednesday, while all Port Houston facilities
will begin normal operations on Thursday.
NO WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES
Texas avoided the widespread power outages that
had led to several plant shutdowns during
winter storm Uri in 2021.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO END BY
FRIDAYTemperatures rose above
freezing during Wednesday, and daily highs
should continue to rise as the week progresses.
Lows should be just below freezing on Wednesday
and Thursday, according to meteorologists.
(Thumbnail shows snow, which can
precipitate in the type of cold weather that
can disrupt plant operations. Image by Michael
Ainsworth/AP/Shutterstock)
Ammonia22-Jan-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s
fertilizers-intensive agricultural sector is
expected to produce 322.3 million of grains,
pulses, and oilseeds in the 2024-2025 harvest,
up 8.2% year on year, according to the National
Supply Company (Conab).
Soybean production will continue dominating
Brazil’s agro sector as exports are expected to
keep rising, with a sharp recovery in output
after a lower-than-expected harvest in the
previous period.
In 2024-2025, Brazil’s is expected to produce
more than 166 million tonnes of soybean, up by
more than 11% from the prior harvest.
The country’s warm weather and its fertile land
allows for two harvests a year in some grains,
such as corn for which total production is
expected at 119.6 million tonnes in 2024/2025,
up 3.3%.
Rice output is also expected to rise sharply in
the current cycle, up 13.2% to 11.99 million.
The 2023-2024 cycle was greatly disrupted by
weather events such the historic floods in Rio
Grande do Sul state in May 2024 as well as
high temperatures and a
severe drought in other parts of the
country.
In 2024, Brazil’s harvest stood at 292.7
million tonnes, down 7.2% from 2023.
“After a year of crop failure, the current
cycle tends to recover the average productivity
of crops. For this season, an average yield of
3,509 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) is
expected, compared to 3,201 kg/ha recorded in
2023/2024,” said Conab.
“The planting of the oilseed occurred in a
concentrated manner, mainly from the end of
October. As a result, the harvest should also
occur, for the most part, from the end of
January. The weather conditions, in the period
analyzed, have been favorable for the crop so
far.”
WORLD BREADBASKETAfter
dips in the previous cycle, Brazil’s grain
exports, which have made it a key breadbasket
for the world’s markets, are expected to regain
much of the ground lost.
In 2024-2025, soybean exports are expected at
105.47 million tonnes, up from the prior
cycle’s 98.6 million tonnes. Among others,
China is one of the key consumers of Brazilian
soybean, which the country uses mostly to feed
livestock.
Corn exports are expected to fall as domestic
consumption rises, said Conab, with shipments
overseas expected at 34 million tonnes, down
from 38.5 million tonnes – the result of a
higher, 86.4 million tonnes consumption by
Brazilian consumers, up from 83.57 million
tonnes in the previous cycle.
“An important addition to rice on Brazilians’
plates, total bean production is also expected
to grow by 4.9%, estimated at 3.4 million
tonnes, the second largest harvest in the last
15 years, behind only the 2013/2014 season,”
said Conab.
“The result reflects both the increase in area
and productivity. In the first legume harvest
alone, the harvest is expected to increase by
15.5%, estimated at just over 1 million tonnes.
The harvest of this first cycle of the crop is
underway, with 19.4% completed in the first
week of January.”
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