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Ammonia14-Aug-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) has published its World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report for
August.
The August report forecasts an increase in corn
and soybean production with corn at 15.1
billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the
July report, and soybeans projected at 4.6
billion bushels, up by 154 million bushels.
Senior editors Mark Milam and Sylvia Traganida
discuss the latest estimates, and take an
in-depth look at current trends in the US
market.
Styrene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producers Hanwha
Total Energies and Yeochon NCC are withdrawing their
request for an antidumping probe on styrene
monomer (SM) imports from China, based on a
petition they filed with the Korea Trade
Commission on 12 August.
The probe, which was initiated upon requests
from Korean producers, has been ongoing since 9
April and was supposed to end on 8 September.
This petition withdrawal by the two companies
is likely to conclude the four-month ADD
investigation which have triggered significant
concerns of Asian market players on a potential
change in intra-Asia SM trade landscape since
South Korea is China’s biggest export market
for SM.
Expectations heightened in June that Korea will
launch antidumping duties (ADDs) on
China-origin SM after China extended
its five-year ADDs on SM imports from
three origins, including Korea.
KTC had held
discussions and hearings in June to
determine whether Chinese SM imports are
causing material damage to Korea’s domestic
market.
China is no longer a regular importer of Korean
SM, but some market players were expecting
China’s ADD extension could trigger
retaliations by Korea as a political
countermeasure.
Korea’s probe on SM imports from China has
faced strong opposition from local end-users in
downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene
(ABS) industry which rely on feedstock from
China to run their plants.
During the period of June 2023 to June 2024,
South Korea accounted for around 74% of China’s
total SM exports, according to ICIS Supply and
Demand Database.
Although Chinese cargoes are no longer expected
to be subject to Korean ADDs in near term, high
logistics costs and elevated domestic spot
prices in China could continue to hamper
China-Korea SM talks.
Some Chinese suppliers may also continue
searching for alternative markets to diversify
their sales portfolio.
Focus article by Luffy Wu
Thumbnail image: At Taicang Port in China
on 12 January
2024.(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Styrene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producers Hanwha
Total Energies and Yeochon NCC are withdrawing
their request for an antidumping probe on
styrene monomer (SM) imports from China, based
on a petition they filed with the Korea Trade
Commission on 12 August.
The probe, which was initiated upon requests
from Korean producers, has been ongoing since 9
April and was supposed to end on 8 September.
Expectations heightened in June that Korea will
launch antidumping duties (ADDs) on
China-origin SM after China extended its five-year
ADDs on SM imports from three origins,
including Korea.
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Polyethylene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on Asian
Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
The ICIS data continue to tell us that we are
facing the biggest shake-up in the modern
history of the petrochemicals industry.
Let’s today use high-density polyethylene
(HDPE)
China accounted for just 6% of global HDPE
demand in 1992 although it had a 22% share of
the global population. By the end of 2024, we
expect China to generate 33% of global demand
from an 18% share of the population.
For far too long, our industry overlooked the
warning signs: China’s rapidly ageing
population, its real estate bubble and the
geopolitical split with the West.
It was only a question of when rather than
whether the Chinese economy would enter a more
challenging phase. We can see from the ICIS
data on spreads and margins that the “when”
arrived in late 2021 – the Evergrande Moment.
CFR China HDPE injection grade price spreads
over CFR Japan naphtha costs have averaged just
$212/tonne since the end of Petrochemicals
Supercycle – from January 2022 onwards. This
compares with the $487/tonne average during the
Supercycle – 1992 until 2021.
So, spreads need to rebound by 130% to get back
to where they were during the Supercycle.
This year, as we can see from the chart in
today’s post, they have fallen to a new record
low.
Global capacity was added largely on the
assumption that China’s HDPE demand growth
would be higher than is going to be the case.
My highly unscientific “wisdom of crowds”
approach, which involved talking to lots of
people, suggests that the consensus view was
that China’s petrochemicals demand growth in
general would be at 6-8% over the long term.
Low single digit growth now seems more likely.
Global HDPE operating rates were very healthy
during the Petrochemicals Supercycle. Including
two years after the end of the Supercycle (the
1992-2023 period), we estimate they averaged
88%.
We forecast a global operating rate of just 75%
in 2024-2030.
Global capacity would have to grow by just
173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case
assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year if 2024-2030
were instead to reach 88%.
Rationalisation of capacity in disadvantaged
regions such as Europe and Asia ex-China seems
likely as China, the Middle East and the US
carry on building.
So much for what we know. What about the
“unknown unknowns”? Here are just two of them:
What will be the size of China’s population
by the end of the century and therefore its
HDPE and other resins demand? Estimates range
from 633m to 525m or even less.
Can China fully maintain its role as the
Workshop of the World? Or will reshoring and
trade tensions eventually lead to a major
decline in Chinese exports?
Facts, or rather data, are sacred. So should be
rigorous scenario planning as “one size fits
all” views of the future won’t get us anywhere.
Neither will a repeat of the conventional
thinking that got us into this mess in the
first place.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Petrochemicals14-Aug-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to
beef up its petrochemical production capacity
to 14m tonnes/year by 2030 which will increase
the state-owned company’s petrochemical
intensity index (PII) to 15%, nearly triple its
current level, company chair SM Vaidya said.
Total petrochemical investments to reach
Rs1.2 trillion
Domestic industry projected to grow at
8-10% over the next few years
Local demand estimated to hit $1 trillion
by 2040
Petrochemical projects worth Indian rupees (Rs)
300 billion ($3.6 billion) are under various
stages of implementation, while feasibility
studies are ongoing on projects worth Rs900
billion, based on IOC’s annual report for the
fiscal year ending March 2024.
The company’s current petrochemical production
capacity stands at 4.28 million tonnes/year,
based on its annual report for the fiscal year
ending March 2024.
IOC’s PII refers to the percentage of crude oil
that is directly converted into chemicals.
“We are integrating petrochemicals into our
refining operations,” IOC chairman SM Vaidya
said at the company’s annual general meeting on
9 August.
“This oil-to-chemical approach will enrich our
value chain, meet rising petrochemical demand,
reduce import reliance, and insulate the bottom
line from the impacts of oil price
fluctuations,” he said.
By 2026, its refining capacity will have
increased by more than 25% from the current
70.3 million tonnes/year to 87.9 million
tonnes/year, Vaidya said at IOC’s annual
general meeting on 9 August.
By the end of the decade, IOC expects its
refining capacity to be 107.4 million
tonnes/year, according to the annual report
released on 18 July.
“In 2023-24, we successfully commissioned the
first phase of naphtha cracker expansion and
paraxylene-purified terephthalic acid (PX-PTA)
revamp project in Panipat and an ethylene
glycol plant at Paradip. These have propelled
our PII to 6.1%,” Vaidya said.
In November 2023, IOC increased the capacity at
the naphtha cracker at its Panipat refinery
complex from 857,000 tonnes/year to 947,000
tonnes/year.
Following the PX-PTA revamp at its Panipat
refinery, IOC has increased its PX production
to 460,000 tonnes/year and PTA output to
700,000 tonnes/year, as per the company
website.
In March 2024, the company inaugurated its
357,000 tonne/year monoethylene glycol (MEG)
project at its Paradip refinery complex.
PETROCHEMICAL PROJECT
PIPELINE
Indian Oil plans to commission a 150,000 tonne/year butyl
acrylate plant at its Gujarat refinery in
the current financial year 2024-25.
One of the company’s ambitious petrochemical
projects include the mega complex at Paradip in
eastern Odisha state, Vaidya said, noting that
the Rs610
billion project is IOC’s “largest ever
investment at a single location”.
The petrochemical complex will include a
world-scale 1.5 milion tonne/year naphtha
cracker unit along with downstream process
units for producing polypropylene (PP), high
density polyethylene (HDPE), linear low-density
polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride
(PVC).
The Paradip petrochemical project is currently
in implementation stage and the company expects
to commission it by August 2029, IOC said in
its annual report released on 18 July.
As part of its future expansions, IOC expects
to begin operations at the 200,000 tonne/year PP
plant at its Barauni refinery and 500,000 tonne/year PP
line at its Gujarat refinery before
end-March 2026, based on the company’s annual
report.
IOC has also enhanced its lube oil base stocks
(LOBS) capacity at its Haldia complex and is
setting up new plants at its Gujarat and
Panipat refineries, Vaidya said, adding, “we
aim to increase the capacity from 730,000
tonnes/year to 1.5 million tonnes/year”.
The company expects to commission the 60,000 tonnes/year
polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant at its
Panipat refinery by March 2025 as per the
annual report.
These planned expansions by IOC will help meet
the rising petrochemical demand in the country,
IOC stated in its latest annual report.
The domestic petrochemical industry is “poised
for substantial growth, driven by India’s
sturdy macro fundamentals, population expansion
and presently low per capita polymer
consumption,” it said.
India’s overall petrochemical demand is
projected to nearly triple by 2040, with the
industry’s value expected to reach the $1
trillion mark, said Indian minister for
petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Pur in
a presentation at the Asia Petrochemical
Industry Conference (APIC) in May 2023.
Focus article by Priya Jestin
($1 = Rs83.91)
Thumbnail image: An Indian Oil petrol pump
in Kolkata, 17 January 2022. (By Indranil
Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Ammonia13-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Industry group Fertilizer
Canada has requested federal authorities take
action as CN Railway and Canadian Pacific
Kansas City have issued embargoes immediately
halting certain fertilizer shipments ahead of
an anticipated labor strike.
Fertilizer Canada is calling on the federal
government and Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon
to assist all parties and the Teamsters Canada
Rail Conference (TCRC), in reaching agreements.
Further, it is asking that there be a directive
for binding arbitration that prohibits TCRC
from undertaking strike action and the
railroads from lockout action.
The railroads have said they could lock out
workers on 22 August if union leadership and
the companies are unable to achieve immediate
progress or reach a negotiated settlement or
agree upon binding arbitration.
Fertilizer Canada said that embargoes issued 12
August impact essential ammonia fertilizer
products.
In addition, service for all products will also
begin to slow three to five days ahead of a
work stoppage and take between three to five
days to reach regular service upon conclusion.
The group said the threat has already begun to
impact fertilizer movement and the industry
anticipates further slowdowns.
It noted that a work stoppage which halts
nutrient transportation will potentially have
disastrous effects on crop yields and food
security.
It further stated that according to recent
polling that 55% of Canadians believe the
government has a role to play in the collective
bargaining process and should step in to
prevent impacts.
“The long-lasting and cascading impacts of
labor disruptions are felt before and after the
stoppage even takes place,” says Karen Proud,
Fertilizer Canada president and CEO.
“We have had the threat of a work stoppage
hanging over our heads since the beginning of
the year. Farmers around the world rely on
Canada’s fertilizer industry to maximize crop
yields, and the fertilizer industry relies on
rail to get our products to market.”
The group is urging the federal government to
amend the labor code to strengthen the
bargaining process and also recognize
fertilizer as an essential good critical to
food security that should continue to move
during work stoppages.
“Canada’s reputation has been damaged by the
numerous supply chain disruptions in recent
history,” Proud said.
“This uncertainty gives our international
competitors like Russia and China an advantage.
We need swift action to protect Canada’s
reputation as a reliable trading partner.”
75% of all fertilizer produced and used in
Canada are moved by rail with limited
alternatives to rail. Not only does this supply
support to Canadian farmers, but US and
international growers also rely on this flow of
fertilizer.
Fertilizer Canada represents producers,
manufacturers, wholesale and retail
distributors of nitrogen, phosphate, potash and
sulphur fertilizers.
Ammonia13-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Belgium chemical distributor
Manuchar announced it has reached an agreement
to acquire a majority stake in Proquiel
Quimicos.
While financial terms were not disclosed,
Manuchar said this acquisition fits their
ambition to strengthen its distribution
platform and broaden its product portfolio.
Established in 1985, Proquiel Quimicos
specializes in chemical distribution serving a
wide range of industries with a comprehensive
portfolio including solutions for mining, water
treatment, fertilizer, aquaculture and
industrial applications.
The company has five strategic locations across
Chile serving more than 1,000 active customers.
Manuchar has been present in Chile since 2004,
operating via its regional headquarters in
Santiago and three additional offices and
operational sites.
The closing of the acquisition by Manuchar is
expected to occur in Q4 2024, subject to
approval by competition authorities.
“Proquiel is a sophisticated and highly
diversified business with exposures to
attractive end markets. It is highly
complementary to Manuchar’s growth strategy in
areas such as human nutrition, animal nutrition
and mining related to renewable energy,” said
Philippe Huybrechs, Manuchar Group CEO.
“Manuchar intends to take a leading role in the
consolidation of the global chemical
distribution landscape. We are happy to welcome
Proquiel Quimicos into our Manuchar Group.”
Ammonia13-Aug-2024
TORONTO (ICIS)–Freight railroads Canadian
Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian
National (CN) may start to lock out workers on
22 August:
CPKC will issue notice to labor union
Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) “of its
plan to lock out employees at 00:01 ET on
August 22 if union leadership and the company
are unable to come to a negotiated settlement
or agree to binding interest arbitration”, it
said in a statement.
CN will have “no choice” but to begin a
phased and progressive shutdown of its network,
starting with embargoes of hazardous goods,
which would culminate in a lockout at 00:01
Eastern Time on August 22nd, “unless there is
immediate and meaningful progress at the
negotiating table or binding arbitration”, it
said.
CN also requested the intervention of Canada’s
federal labor minister, it added.
TCRC, for its part, said that it remains
committed to negotiating new collective
agreements.
The railroads’ lockout warning comes after the
Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on 9
August imposed a 13-day cooling-off
period in the labor dispute about wages,
benefits, work scheduling and safety.
Canada’s chemicals, fertilizer and other
industries have been facing the threat of a
rail labor disruption for months now.
In early May about 9,300 unionized conductors,
train operators and engineers at CN and CPKC
voted for a strike as early as 22 May, while
the labor minister referred the matter to the
CIRB for a decision about a strike’s impacts on
public safety and health.
With the referral, the minister suspended the
right to strike as under law a legal strike or
lockout could not occur until the board had
made its decision.
The minister asked the CIRB to examine whether
certain rail deliveries such as fuel, food and
chlorine for water-treatment facilities should
be declared essential services, allowing
shipments to continue during work stoppages.
However, the CIRB ruled last Friday (9 August)
that no rail activities needed to be maintained
during a strike or lockout, thus clearing the
way for industrial action after the expiry of
the 13-day cooling off period.
IMPACT ON CHEMICALS
Trade group Chemistry Industry Association of
Canada (CIAC) warned again of the impact of a
freight rail disruption on Canada’s chemical
industry and the overall economy.
“Canada’s economy relies on rail to keep
products and commodities moving,” the group’s
CEO, Bob Masterson, said in a statement.
Chemicals needed for water treatment and sewage
treatment are shipped by rail, he said.
Many CIAC members were “captive” to CPKC and/or
CN, with no viable alternatives for shipments,
he said.
Companies producing highly regulated goods –
about one-third of CIAC members – typically
begin shutdown procedures before 72 hours’
notice of a strike or lockout is given, he
said.
Although plants at some CIAC member companies
can only operate up to two days without rail
service before having to be shut down, most
will be shut down within a week, he said.
The Canadian chemistry sector alone moves over
500 railcars/day, he said.
It would require over 1,500 road-based tanker
trucks to carry the same load, he said.
There was no “Plan B” because of a lack of
availability of trucks and drivers and the
additional cost of moving product over long
distances, Masterson said.
Furthermore, many chemical products are
restricted to move by rail due to their
hazardous nature, he added.
According to CIAC, more than Canadian dollar
(C$) 76 million (US$55 million) of industrial
chemical products move on Canada’s rail network
daily, or C$28 billion each year.
Chemicals account for nearly 10% of all
Canadian rail traffic, the group said.
Furthermore, the chemical industry’s customers
in the automobile, forest products, minerals
and other industries ship most of their product
by rail, it said.
CIAC is urging a negotiated solution to the
conflict, it said.
However, should negotiations fail, Canada’s
federal government “must be prepared to act
quickly to order the parties to return to work
and the negotiating table to protect Canadians,
Canadian workers directly affected by the
disruption, and the Canadian economy,” the
group said.
The group added that the CIRB’s decision not to
impose requirements to ensure the rail shipment
of essential products – such as fuel, food or
chlorine for water treatment – during
industrial action was “concerning”.
FERTILIZERS
In the fertilizer industry, trade group
Fertilizer Canada said that the railroads on
Monday, 12 August, issued embargoes immediately
halting certain fertilizer shipments 10 days
ahead of an expected labor disruption.
The threat of a work stoppage has already begun
to impact the movement of fertilizers, and the
industry expects further embargoes and
slowdowns in rail service, the group said.
A work stoppage that prevents the
transportation of fertilizer would have
“potentially disastrous effects” on crop yields
and food security, it added.
Fertilizer Canada wants the government “to take
immediate action to assist all parties” in
reaching agreements, “including ordering a
directive for binding arbitration that
prohibits TCRC from undertaking strike action
and CN and CPKC from lockout action,” it said.
Furthermore, the group is asking the federal
government to recognize fertilizers as an
essential good critical to domestic and global
food security that should continue to move
during work stoppages, it said.
Canada’s reputation has already been damaged by
numerous supply chain disruptions in the recent
past and the renewed labor uncertainty will
give its international competitors an
advantage, Karen Proud, CEO of Fertilizer
Canada, added.
Canadian chemical producers rely on rail to
ship more than 70% of their product, with some
exclusively using rail, while in the fertilizer
industry about 75% of all fertilizers produced
and used in Canada is moved by rail.
The following table by the American Association
of Railroads (AAR) shows Canadian freight rail
traffic for the week ended 3 August and
the first 31 weeks of 2024:
In their recent earnings calls, midstream
energy firms Pembina and Keyera, as well as
fertilizer major Nutrien and others
raised the looming rail disruption as a
concern, and CN reduced its 2024 earnings
guidance, citing the impact of the labor
uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Canada continues to face the
threat of new labor
disruptions at its West Coast ports.
However, as of Monday, neither the BC Maritime
Employers Association (BCMEA) nor trade union
and International Longshore and Warehouse Union
Local 514 issued the required 72-hour notices
before a legal strike or lockout can begin.
(US$1=C$1.37)
Additional reporting by Al Greenwood
Thumbnail photo source: Keyera
Crude Oil13-Aug-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Sentiment for Germany’s economic
outlook fell sharply in August on concerns over
the US economy and the protracted conflict in
the Middle East.
A monthly survey of analysts and investors
carried out by the Germany-headquartered think
tank ZEW saw its indicator of economic
sentiment fall to 19.2 points.
The drop marked a decrease of 22.6 points from
July. It was also the strongest decline in two
years.
An assessment of the current economic situation
in Germany also saw a drop in its reading, with
the corresponding indicator still in negative
territory and down by 8.4 points to -77.3
points.
“It is likely that economic expectations are
still affected by high uncertainty, which is
driven by ambiguous monetary policy,
disappointing business data from the US economy
and growing concerns over an escalation of the
conflict in the Middle East,” ZEW president
Achim Wambach said in a statement.
The economic outlook for the eurozone also fell
to 17.9 points, a drop of 25.8 points from
July.
While the current situation indicator for the
eurozone was assessed slightly higher by 3.7
points, it was still in negative territory at
-32.4 points.
Thumbnail photo: Dortmund port,
Germany (Source: Christopher
Neundorf
/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
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