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Speciality Chemicals04-Dec-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US November sales of new light
vehicles ticked higher from the previous month
and rose compared with the same month a year
ago, but proposed tariffs on Mexican and
Canadian imports by President-elect Donald
Trump could create further headwinds for the
industry.
Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) shows year-to-date sales up by 1.7%. The
following chart shows US auto sales from 1989
to present.
Note: Gray bars show when the US was in a
recession
Auto sales are important because the auto
industry is a key end market for chemicals
demand.
Although automobile sales and foreign truck
sales were weak, this was offset by a strong
gain in domestic light truck sales, according
to Kevin Swift, senior economist for global
chemicals at ICIS.
“Affordability has been an issue in this market
and is showing signs of improvement, which, if
continued, will provide further tailwinds,”
Swift said.
But shares of publicly traded US automakers
fell last week after Trump announced that he
plans on levying 25% tariffs on all products
from Canada and Mexico as well as an additional
10% tariff on goods from China – all three of
which are critical sources for the auto
industry’s global supply chain.
Swift said the latest report indicates that US
consumers continue to be in the market for new
vehicles and that continued improvement in
sales will benefit industrial production.
Swift said that inventories on dealer lots have
improved by almost 46% compared with the same
month a year ago, which should also help boost
sales.
CHEMS USED IN AUTOS
Demand for chemicals in auto production comes
from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids,
catalysts, plastic dashboards and other
components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery
fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said.
Virtually every component of a light vehicle,
from the front bumper to the rear taillights,
features some chemistry.
The latest data indicate that polymer use is
about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle.
Meanwhile, electric vehicles (EVs) and
associated battery markets are an important
growth opportunity for the chemical industry,
with chemical producers separately developing
battery materials, as well as specialty
polymers and adhesives for EVs.
Please also visit the ICIS
topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals
Crude Oil04-Dec-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Days before the shock
declaration of martial law in South Korea by
President Yoon Suk-yeol, political wranglings
stalled the 2025 budget deliberations of Asia’s
fourth-biggest economy.
Opposition DPK wants heavy cut in 2025
national budget
Impeachment looms for President Yoon
No impact on petrochemical
operations/trades
“Tensions between the ruling PPP [People Power
Party] and main opposition Democratic Party of
Korea (DPK) have escalated as both sides have
been unable to come to a consensus on the
budget,” according to BMI Country Risk &
Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions
Group in a note on Wednesday.
DPK has proposed heavy cuts – to the tune of
won (W) 4.1 trillion ($2.9 billion) – to the
Yoon administration’s proposed budget of W677.4
trillion for next year, which represents a 3.2%
increase from 2023.
“As things stand, Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget …
faces the risk of being watered down to
KRW673.3trn amid strong opposition from the DPK
which holds a parliamentary majority,” BMI
stated.
QUITE AN UNEXPECTED MOVE
Most South Koreans, including players in the
petrochemical industry, like the rest of the
world, were baffled at Yoon’s declaration of
emergency martial law late on 3 December.
The last time the highly industrialized country
in Asia faced martial law was in 1979, and no
recent developments in the geopolitical and
financial sectors of the country indicated that
such a drastic measure would be taken.
At close to midnight, Yoon had declared martial
law – which meant military rule and curbs on
civil rights – on national television noting
that it was meant to crack down on pro-North
Korean forces and protect the constitutional
order in the country.
“Martial law was quite surprising for us to
hear because it hasn’t happened in the last 40
years,” said a soda ash distributor.
The declaration of martial law and its
withdrawal hours later has thrown South Korea
into political instability. It was highly
disruptive for market sentiment that for a
time, suspension of trading was mulled, but was
eventually called off when the martial law was
rescinded about six hours after it was
declared.
South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy
and the Bank of Korea assuaged market fears of
disruption by offering “unlimited liquidity
support” to ensure market stability,
immediately after the martial law declaration.
The won weakened near two-year lows against the
US dollar on 3 December at around W1,440 but
recovered to around W1,412 levels as of
Wednesday afternoon.
The benchmark KOSPI composite index closed off
lows at 2,464.00, down 1.44% from the previous
day, after falling nearly 2% in intraday trade.
“For now, we expect limited implications for
the economy and financial markets as the Bank
of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have
responded swiftly by reassuring investors,” BMI
said.
“Notably, the central bank committed to
boosting short-term liquidity and enacting
measures to stabilise the FX [foreign exchange]
markets, which aligns with our view that risks
around the South Korean won, should remain
contained for now,” it added.
The central bank held an emergency monetary
policy meeting on Wednesday morning, with the
Monetary Board deciding “to keep all options
open and to actively take market stabilization
measures until markets are fully stabilized”.
In late November, the BoK issued its second
interest rate cut in as many months to prop up
the economy, while trimming its GDP growth
forecasts for this year to 2.2%, and for 2025
to 1.9%.
In Q3, the country’s GDP
growth decelerated to 1.5% from a 2.3% pace
set in Q2.
The South Korean economy is expected to face
added pressure next year amid US threats to
impose tariffs on all imported goods.
Like most of Asia, the country is heavily
reliant on exports, with China and the US as
its biggest trade partners.
South Korea’s export growth in November
weakened to 1.4% year-on-year to $56.4 billion,
while imports shrank by 2.4% to $50.7 billion,
indicating domestic weakness.
YOON’S FUTURE UNCERTAIN
Calls for Yoon’s resignation is mounting, with
lawmakers from DPK saying that if he does not
resign immediately, steps will be taken to have
him impeached.
“We anticipate heightened political uncertainty
in the near term. Yoon is now under intense
pressure to resign. If he does not, we expect
that it is only a matter of time before he is
impeached,” BMI said.
“If so, we believe Prime Minister Han Duck-soo
will step in as interim leader, paving the way
for elections to be held within 60 days, in
accordance with the constitution,” it added.
According to Korean news agency Yonhap,
opposition parties – DPK and five others,
including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform
Party, submitted on Wednesday afternoon a
motion to impeach President Yoon to the
National Assembly.
The motion – which was signed by 190 opposition
lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no
support from any ruling party lawmakers – will
be reported to a parliamentary plenary session
on 5 December and then put to a vote on either
6 December or 7 December.
South Korea’s law requires that an impeachment
motion be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours
after the motion is reported to a plenary
session, Yonhap said.
Yoon, an inexperienced politician, became the
20th president of the country in May 2022 and
is currently serving the third of his five
years of office. Previously, he was South
Korea’s chief prosecutor.
In its note, BMI noted that PPP leader Han
Dong-hoon had urged Yoon to explain his
decision and to dismiss defense minister Kim
Yong-hyun, who advised the president to declare
martial law “even as the finance and foreign
ministers advised against it”.
“The silver lining we think is that the swift
reversal of the martial law underscores the
resilience of South Korea’s institutions,” it
said.
NO IMPACT ON PETROCHEMICAL
TRADESPlayers in the
petrochemical industry are monitoring the
political developments but noted no immediate
impact on the commodities markets.
“Politically, [it is] still unstable as the
President is getting pressure to resign,” a
source at a phenol/acetone producer said.
South Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as
well as aromatics such as benzene, toluene and
styrene monomer (SM).
“At this moment the situation has settled down,
but we’ll see how the government will respond
to the issue,” the soda ash distributor said.
“From the industrial side there is no huge
impact because plants/factories are always
running at full capacity so now we don’t see
any impact,” he said.
“But long-term impact, we’ll need to see how
other foreign companies and assets may move out
of South Korea,” the distributor added.
For the time being, players are more
pre-occupied with unsteady port operations in
Daesan because of heavy winds which are
affecting trades and cargo deliveries.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s petrochemical industry
has its own troubles stemming from Asia’s
overcapacity.
In the case of of major player Lotte Chemical,
which swung into a net loss of W514 billion in
Q3 2024, the company is making big changes to
its portfolio, selling or closing
commodities businesses as it refocuses on
higher margin specialties.
South Korean industries, including chemicals,
rely heavily on exports to China, whose
self-sufficiency has grown over the years.
Insight article by Pearl
Bantillo
($1 = W1,414)
Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang,
Jonathan Chou, Evangeline Cheung, Helen Lee,
Shannen Ng, Josh Quah and Clive Ong
Speciality Chemicals04-Dec-2024
MUSCAT (ICIS)–Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical
(PTTGC) is expected to begin producing
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its refinery
in Map Ta Phut early next year, the company’s
CEO Narongsak Jivakanun said.
“We are commissioning, although it is on a
small scale, but it is an important step – SAF
[production] in Q1 next year using our existing
oil refinery but blended with non-fossil fuel
based raw material,” Jivakanun told ICIS on the
sidelines of the 18th Annual Gulf
Petrochemicals and Chemicals (GPCA) Forum in
Muscat, Oman.
The company plans to produce 500,000 liters of
SAF per month, using up to 1,700 tonnes of used
cooking oil per month as feedstock.
SAF is used as a direct replacement for
traditional fossil-based jet fuel to power
aircraft.
Moreover, by leveraging the mass balance
approach, the change in how the refinery
accommodates use of alternative feedstock in
the production of SAF enables it to claim a
portion of its downstream aromatics, polymers,
and olefins output as non-fossil chemical
products, he said.
PTTGC is the first Thai company to upgrade its
refinery with advanced technology to
accommodate used cooking oil as feedstock.
The company’s biorefinery project is a
component of the company’s three-pronged growth
strategy – “Step Change, Step Out and Step
Up” – which, in part, prioritizes business
sustainability through decarbonization efforts,
according to Jivakanun.
PTTGC is also on track to fully start up a new
fully integrated polylactic acid (PLA)
unit at the Nakhon Sawan Biocomplex (NBC) by
the end of next year, he said.
The PLA project is being carried out by
NatureWorks, the equal joint venture firm
between the US’ Cargill and PTTGC and will use
sugarcane sourced locally as feedstock.
THAI SPECIALTIES HUB
AMBITIONS
Allnex, a global specialty chemicals subsidiary
of PTTGC, is currently planning to expand its
specialty resins production in Map Ta Phut with
an aim to develop the site to become a hub for
selected coating resins serving the southeast
Asia region, according to Jivakanun.
“The plan is to develop a hub in Map Ta Phut so
that they can share the infrastructure that
[PTT]GC already has, utilities, the engineering
and operational support,” he said.
“Expertise sharing between GC and allnex will
enhance potential of value engineering resulted
in cost savings into the project.”
The project is in the stage of finalizing the
scope with an aim to produce specialty resins
that most fit customer demands and requirements
Allnex specializes in the production of
industrial coating resins and additives.
“We will go through the feasibility study as
usual and we aim to confirm the investment for
allnex Map Ta Phut hub within next year,”
Jivakanun added.
Interview article by Nurluqman
Suratman
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Petrochemicals04-Dec-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s PCBL Ltd began
commercial operations at its 20,000 specialty
chemicals expansion project at its Mundra
complex in the western Gujarat state on 28
November.
This plant forms the second and final
phase of the company’s 40,000 tonne/year
brownfield expansion project, the company said
in a disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE) on 29 November.
The company began operations at the first phase
of the project in July
2023.
The enhanced capacity will allow PCBL to meet
growing demands of its existing customers and
also explore new opportunities, it said.
The company, formerly known as Phillips Carbon
Black Ltd, produces more than 40 grades of
performance and specialty chemicals which
service various segments like the tyres,
engineering plastics, inks & coatings, and
batteries industries.
Gas04-Dec-2024
President Yoon Suk Yeol faces backlash over
martial law
Yoon a strong advocate for nuclear power at
home, abroad
Legislators are calling for resignation,
impeachment
SINGAPORE (ICIS)– South
Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived
martial law declaration on the midnight of 4
December shocked the country, raising concerns
on whether he can finish the term set to end in
2027 without being impeached, and putting
uncertainty on Korea’s energy policies, should
the office change hands, including strong
support for LNG as a transition fuel and
phasing out coal.
The opposition Korea Democratic Party already
filed motions to impeach Yoon on the afternoon
of 4 December. If the impeachment passes via
the National Assembly, it would need to go
through a judicial review and then a new
election would be called in 60 days if upheld.
Yoon and his People Power Party are a minority
in the legislature and have faced opposition
roadblocks to ambitious energy policies that
were a sharp change from predecessor Moon Jae
In.
NUCLEAR
Yoon, who was elected in 2022, is a supporter
of a growing nuclear power footprint at home
and exports of nuclear plants, including
recent efforts with the Czech republic, and
vowed to increase the share of nuclear in the
energy mix to above 30% by 2030.
Moon had declared that nuclear would be
completely phased out since his term in 2017.
On 12 September 2024, Korea’s Nuclear Safety
and Security Commission (NSSC)
granted the construction permit for
Shin-Hanul 3 and 4 reactors. This means four
nuclear plants are underway by 2038.
Korea would further export 10 nuclear plants by
2030 under his envision, to potential buyers
all over the world.
“The Democratic Party is not pro-nuclear, if
they are elected after Yoon’s impeachment they
might not start new projects but also not
likely to kill the ongoing projects and export
efforts due to NDC (National Determined
Contribution) concerns”, a Korean academic
familiar with the matter told ICIS.
“Nuclear is quite essential to achieve Korea’s
carbon neutral goals”, he added. The country
has a 2050 net-zero carbon target.
LNG DEMAND
South Korea relies heavily on fossil fuels for
power generation. Imported LNG powers over a
quarter of the Korean economy.
This number is projected to decrease due to
rising share of nuclear and renewables.
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and
Energy MOTIE on 19 November said it has formed
a “Coal-Fired Power Generation Transition
Council” among five companies for an updated
roadmap on phasing out coal plants due by the
first quarter of 2025.
But the country’s LNG import grew by 7.5% from
39.34mtpa in 2023 (January-November), to
42.31mtpa in the same period of 2024, ICIS data
shows.
“Short-term LNG demand will indeed be lower
because of new coal power plants and
renewables, but LNG need won’t be diminishing
in the next ten years, because electricity
consumption will grow due to data centers,
semi-conductor industry and more abnormal
temperatures,” the Korean scholar said.
South Korea is the world’s third largest LNG
importer and has extensive power infrastructure
to feed high-end manufacturing. As well, South
Korean shipyards have completed 500 LNG tankers
for export since 1994, according to the
Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (MOTIE)
in April 2024.
Also in November, MOTIE announced pilot bidding
for an LNG capacity market.
The newly introduced liquefied natural gas
(LNG) capacity market is a competitive bidding
process for new and new collective energy
sources using LNG as the main fuel.
The country has also worked closely with Qatar
on LNG supply agreements and
on shipping – as well as on US projects via
private companies.
EAST SEA DRILLING
In June, the president announced
exploratory drilling for fossil fuels off
its eastern shore, which could supply the
country with oil and gas from four to 29 years,
according to estimates.
The first drilling will begin in the later half
of this month, and the initial results will be
released in H1 2025,
according to Korean media.
It remains unclear what results the
exploitation will deliver by then, and whether
a change of power will put an end to the
project.
At the same time, Yoon’s
latest poll rating slid to 25%, Korean
media reported.
The Korean won weakened to just above 1,400 to
the US dollar on 4 December from levels just
above 1,300 won at the end of October, making
imports more expensive at least in the short
term, as the country’s main labor union called
for a general strike and Yoon’s resignation.
The Bank of Korea and South Korea’s Finance
Ministry
pledged steps for stability, including 10
trillion won ($7.07 billion) in stock market
stabilisation funds if needed via the financial
regulator. (Roman Kazmin contributed to this
article)
Ammonia03-Dec-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US Cargill announced that as
part of a strategic effort introduced earlier
this year designed to strengthen the almost
160-year-old company that the agribusiness
major will be reducing their global workforce
by approximately 5%.
The process and timeline for this to be
implemented was not revealed but the company
said it will be different under the
circumstance as it must comply with employment
laws and practices in each geography.
Yet with an estimated nearly 8,000 jobs set to
be eliminated, Cargill acknowledges it was not
an easy choice to make this move, and said this
new long-term strategy not only continues their
legacy but carries forward values and core
strengths that have defined their success.
“As we look to the future, we have laid out a
clear plan to evolve and strengthen our
portfolio to take advantage of compelling
trends in front of us, maximize our
competitiveness, and, above all, continue to
deliver for our customers,” said a Cargill in a
statement.
The company said as the world is changing it
remains committed to transforming even faster
to deliver for customers and fulfil the purpose
of nourishing the world.
“To strengthen Cargill’s impact, we must
realign our talent and resources to align with
our strategy. Unfortunately, that means
reducing our global workforce by approximately
5%. This difficult decision was not made
lightly. We will lean on our core value of
putting people first as we support our
colleagues during this transition,” Cargill
said.
Operating in 70 countries with approximately
1,000 locations worldwide Cargill handles not
only food products and ingredients from the
start of the supply chain with farmers all the
way to the final consumer. They also undertake
agricultural solutions including fertilizers
and industrial products.
Diammonium Phosphate03-Dec-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian fertilizer firm
Minbos Resources, who is advancing the Cabinda
Phosphate project in Angola, announced it has
received the first funding from the Angolan
Sovereign Wealth Fund for $6.4 million and
expects to finalize the construction contract
this month.
The company said mobilization to the phosphate
fertilizer plant, located at Subantando, a new
industrial area between the mine site and
Cabinda city, is also planned to commence this
month with phase 1 to include earthworks,
access roads, drainage and concrete
foundations.
Another $2.43 million will be released upon
mobilization of the civil contractor and upon
aligning the governance arrangements of the
Angolan subsidiaries, with a third disbursement
of $1.17 million upon finalizing project
insurances and presentation of supplier
quotations for project long lead items.
Minbos Resources managing director Lindsay Reed
said the receipt of this funding and the
commencement of construction marks the end of
one journey for the company and the beginning
of another with the focus now switching to
construction activities, sales and marketing
and advance their future as a producer of
phosphate fertilizer.
The Cabinda project, located in northeast
Angola, is being developed based on an initial
name plate capacity of 150,000 tonnes/year of
enhanced phosphate rock with initial production
calculated at 50,000 tonnes/year.
Previously Minbos said expansion will come in
two stages with it planning to add a second and
third granulation circuit to reach a name plate
capacity of 450,000 tonnes/year after eight
years of operations.
Ethylene03-Dec-2024
TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s investment tax credits
and its price on carbon emissions have been key
in attracting investments in low-carbon
projects, led by Dow’s Path2Zero petrochemicals
complex under construction in Alberta province.
But will these incentives survive a likely
change in government next year, with the
Conservatives expected to oust Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals?
Conservatives to scrap carbon tax
Industrial carbon pricing critical for
low-emission investments
Carbon capture advantage might be lost
The Chemistry Industry Association of Canada
(CIAC) highlighted the election and
uncertainties surrounding incentives and
programs for low-carbon investments as a risk
factor for the industry in its 2025
outlook webinar last week.
As the country is moving into the election
campaign season, “it is hard to say exactly
where we are going politically,” said David
Cherniak, CIAC policy manager, Business and
Transportation.
Companies were making investment decisions
based on the incentive programs, and “we see
the programs working, companies are getting
ready to spend, and in the case of Dow, already
spend real money to lower emissions and raise
production here in Canada,” he said.
In 2023 Dow made a final
investment decision on Path2Zero and
started construction
in April 2024. Carbon pricing is seen as
critical for the viability of such projects.
CIAC supports industrial pricing and is
advocating the importance of the government
programs for winning chemistry investments,
Cherniak said.
The argument for low-carbon chemical production
was clear, he said.
Around the world the chemical industry’s
customers were demanding low-carbon solutions
and products, “irrespective of what Canada
does,” he continued.
As such, the real question is, “Do we want
those chemistry products that meet that demand
to come from somewhere else or do we want them
to come from Canada?”
Carbon pricing and programs offering incentives
for low-carbon chemical production plants were
“key building blocks” to get those facilities
built in Canada, he said.
If the low-carbon projects are not built in
Canada they would be built elsewhere and Canada
would end up ending importing their products,
he said.
“We think it’s way better to utilize Canada’s
resources here, and see those investments won,
and that is the message we are taking to all
parties as we get ready for the election in
2025,” he said.
However, “the political winds are blowing,” not
just on the federal level but also with a
likely election in Canada’s economically most
powerful province, Ontario, he said.
Canada has seen drastic policy reversals after
changes in government before, with impacts on
the chemical industry:
In 2011 a Conservative government took
Canada out of the Kyoto climate
change accord, to which an earlier Liberal
government had signed up, making Canada the
world’s only country to exit Kyoto.
On the provincial level, a new Conservative
government in 2018 abolished a
cap-and-trade carbon trading system a previous
Liberal government had set up.
AXE THE TAX
On the federal level, the opposition
Conservatives are far ahead of the Trudeau’s
Liberals in opinion polls on the election,
which must be held by 20 October 2025 but will
likely be called earlier.
Under a relentless “Axe the Tax” campaign, the
Conservatives have committed to abolishing the
Liberals’ consumer carbon tax, which took
effect in 2019 and is currently at Canadian
dollar (C$) 80/tonne (US$57/tonne), rising to
C$170/tonne by 2030.
However, the Conservatives have yet to state
what they will do about industrial carbon
pricing.
Industrial carbon pricing is implemented by
Canada’s provinces, with the
federal government providing a “back-stop” with
its “Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS)” that
sets minimum requirements to ensure that heavy
emitters pay for emissions.
Industrial carbon pricing is making a bigger
contribution to Canada’s emissions reductions
than the consumer carbon tax, according to a
study earlier this
year.
ANALYSTS
Analysts at Capital Economics said in a recent
report that with a likely change in government
there is a high chance that Canada’s carbon tax
will soon be scrapped.
Positive impacts on inflation from the
abolition of the tax would be temporary and any
boost to the economy would be small, they said.
However, “removing the carbon tax will remove
an important investment incentive, both in
reducing emissions in Canada’s high-emitting
sectors and in emerging ‘green’ sectors,” the
analysts said.
If the future carbon price in Canada is
expected to be zero, rather than rising to
C$170/tonne by 2030, “that could weigh heavily
on investment in Canada’s emergent ‘green’
industries that rely on a price on carbon to
justify their development,” they said.
They noted as a key example carbon capture,
utilization and storage (CCUS), where Canada
has an advantage over other nations, although
CCUS is not without critics.
Oil-rich Alberta province,
which is home to a large proportion of Canada’s
petrochemicals production, sees itself among
the leaders in developing CCUS technology.
Dow’s project leverages on Alberta’s carbon
capture infrastructure.
In June, Shell made a final
investment decision (FID) to proceed with a
carbon capture project at its refining and
chemicals site in the province, where in 2015
it started up a first
carbon capture facility.
The Conservative Party of Canada and Dow did
not respond to requests for additional comment.
(US$1=C$1.40)
Focus article by Stefan
Baumgarten, with additional reporting
by Jonathan Lopez
Thumbnail photo of Dow’s manufacturing site
in Fort Saskatchewan; photo source: Dow
Speciality Chemicals03-Dec-2024
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Plastics and chemical
producers need to find more effective ways to
tackle the problem of plastic waste after UN
treaty negotiations ended without agreement at
the weekend.
Consumer demand will drive improvements in
plastic waste management
Chemical companies need to reconnect with
brands/consumers
We will move out of current ‘trough of
despair’ about recycling
End of globalization may mean
national/regional treaties are more effective
UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
concluded in Busan, South Korea, on 1 December,
with no definitive agreement
Around 100 countries backed proposals, with
a small number of hold-outs
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews ICIS market
engagement executive Nigel
Davis and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
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