COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–A new regulatory threat for the US chemical industry is emerging from the alignment of two wings of the nation’s main political parties, which could use what critics describe as pseudoscience to adopt restrictive and unneeded policies. The two wings are what the American Chemistry Council (ACC) described as the one in the Democratic party aligned with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and the one in the Republican party aligned with the MAHA movement. MAHA stands for Make American Healthy Again, and it is a motto coined by Robert Kennedy Jr, the secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services. Short term, any new policies will likely arise in states because the current federal administration has imposed a high threshold for new regulations. POSSIBLE STATE-LEVEL THREATS FROM NEW HEALTH REGULATIONSWhile new regulations could arise on the state level, those policies could draw some inspiration from the federal government through the so-called MAHA Report issued by the US Department of Health and Human Services. The first pages of the report highlight “aggregation of environmental chemicals” as one of the four areas that could address what it described as a rise in childhood chronic diseases. The report includes a 12-page section entitled “the cumulative load of chemicals in our environment”. Instead of recommending policy, the MAHA report calls for more research in the following chemistries: Per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). These are used to make fluorochemicals and fluoropolymers Microplastics Fluoride salt added to water to prevent tooth decay Phthalates that are used to make plasticizers Bisphenols that are used to make polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resins Pesticides, herbicides and insecticides. The report mentioned glyphosate and atrazine The report also singled out the following classes of chemicals, as shown in the following table: Heavy Metals Waterborne Contaminants Air Pollutants Industrial Residues Pesticides Persistent Organic Pollutants Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals Physical Agents Source: US Department of Health and Human Services It must be noted that the report explicitly rejects the EU’s REACH regulatory system. Even if the report did propose new regulations, they would have to reach a high threshold. The administration of US President Donald Trump said it will require 10 federal regulations to be removed for every new one introduced. However, a new administration could adopt regulations based on the report after Trump’s term of office ends in four years. US states do not have to wait for Trump to leave office to adopt regulation that address the issues raised in the report. Already, the states of Florida and Utah have banned fluoride from public water. CHEM INDUSTRY ALREADY RESEARCHING CONCERNS RAISED BY REPORTThe ACC stressed that it supports making the nation healthy. “Everyone supports that. We support it,” American Chemistry Council (ACC) CEO Chris Jahn said. He made his comments on the sidelines of the ACC Annual Meeting. With that in mind, the two share the same goals. “We look forward to working with them to make sure that we keep everyone safe, especially children,” Jahn said. Moreover, he said the ACC has conducted research on many of the report’s concerns, and research is its main call for action. The ACC said its Long-Range Research Initiative (LRI) is focused on ways to assess chemicals for safety. It has also invested in research in microplastics, Jahn said. The federal government already addresses many of the report’s concerns under its agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Jahn said. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates food contact and food contamination. As it stands, Jahn said the chemical industry is the most heavily regulated manufacturing sector, and its regulatory burden has doubled in the past 20 years. Regulation is appropriate, but it must be risk-based, science-based and fact-based, Jahn said. “Sound science and sound process leads to sound regulation.” NEW REGULATIONS ON HOLD WITH NEW PRESIDENTThe surge of new regulations that characterized the term of the previous president has ended with Trump’s inauguration, but that was expected because it happens every time a new president takes office, Jahn said. “They freeze everything in place so they can evaluate what’s in the queue, so there’s nothing new there. Every president does that.” As the administration gets settled in, it may need to adopt new regulations to achieve policy goals. If the administration does propose new regulations, the ACC has proposed existing rules it could purge and that would count multiple times in meeting the 10-rule threshold. One such regulation is the plastics significant new use rule (SNUR), Jahn said. “We’ve given them a list of over 30 regulations that they could take a fresh look at,” Jahn said. “We have plenty of suggestions and opportunities for them to address the 10 for one.” The ACC Annual Meeting ran through Wednesday. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail image: Texas flag. (Source: Westlight)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Logistical mayhem at Mexico’s largest port of Manzanillo is hitting imports of chemicals and industrial goods after a strike in May by customs personnel worsened an already poor performance. Players in the distribution sector have said practically all products coming to Manzanillo in Colima state, the port of entry for Asian imports into Mexico with around 40% of the country’s container cargo, are affected as queues are extending to days and affecting the related road and rail transport. The situation has become so dysfunctional that many companies are opting to change their logistical plans and opting to send cargo to the Lazaro Cardenas Port, 350km south in the state of Michoacan. “We’re paying a fortune in delays. It is taking days to get a date to make your shipments, and when they give you a date, it keeps moving forward several times, adding to the increasing costs we are facing. We are reducing as much as we can any operation involving Manzanillo,” a chemical’s distributor source said. Due to chemicals trade’s safety requirements, the source added the company’s logistical woes had been widened by the implementation of a new Administrative and Customs Matter Proceeding (PAMA in its Spanish acronym) system introduced in 2024, which has increased the checks and costs for many of the shipments. In a written statement to ICIS, a spokesperson for logistical firm Logistica de Mexico (LDM) said the company is turning increasingly pessimistic about the port’s crisis, adding it now expects the crisis could take up three months to normalize. In a letter to customers seen by ICIS, one of the operators at the port of Manzanillo, SSA Marine Mexico, said the crisis “continues without significant improvement” because the resumption of operations after the strike at the end of May had been “partial and with insufficient” staff. The Port of Manzanillo is the largest containerized port in Mexico, with 70% of cargo coming from Asia entering Mexico through it. It handles around 35 million tonnes/year of cargo. STRIKE WORSENS POOR PERFORMANCEUp to May, the Port of Manzanillo already suffered performance problems, attributed by trade unions representing workers at Mexico’s National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) to the lack of staff compounded by poor working conditions for workers. Internal protests escalated during May, with the government increasing presence of military personnel from the Navy (Secretaria de Marina) and deepening the rift. By mid-May, the crisis reached boiling point and protestors “completely blocked” access, the Navy said in a statement on 15 May. An intermittent strike followed, with hours-long stoppages, which practically paralyzed the port up to the week commencing on 23 May. Talks between the government and trade unions continue, with the latest round held on Thursday, but progress has been slow. As well as salary demands, trade unions have said customs workers at the facility have faced workplace harassment, exploitation and unjustified dismissal. The Association of Terminals and Operators of Manzanillo (ASTOM) has been quoted on Mexican news outlets this week saying it expects a resolution the crisis to be found as soon as this week or early next week. ASTOM had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. “Right now, Manzanillo is saturated, with congestion at all the port’s terminals. Even if you get customs clearance after making the payment, you will be given an appointment for the actual shipment one week later. It’s become completely dysfunctional,” said the source at the chemicals distributor. “It’s hard to have an estimate for when the delays will be cleared. This is a situation now affecting all importing and exporting companies using this important facility. Because of the location of our facilities, Lazaro Cardenas port does not work so well for us – otherwise we would have already diverted to that port.” UP TO 12 WEEKS RESOLUTION – ALL GOING WELLIn its written statement to ICIS, the spokesperson for LDM confirmed what the company’s CEO, Jose Ambe, said earlier this week in an interview with Mexican news outlet El Mañana in which he gave the most pessimistic assessment of how long the crisis could linger: three months. “Although we see that the authorities are taking some measures to restore operations and partially resume activities, to be honest, the port’s full normalization will take between eight and 12 weeks. This is based on the flow we are seeing, the containers that are delayed, and the lack of personnel,” Ambe said. “The port has been opened but a bottleneck was created, which meant it couldn’t be moved, and there is a lack of personnel to address this. There are still protests from port and customs workers, who continue to protest amid the lack of personnel.” Ambe concluded saying that unjustifiably dismissed personnel will likely have to be reinstated and authorities may need to meaningfully improve the customs employees’ working conditions for the crisis to overcome the impasse. In its letter to customers dated 30 May, SSA Marine Mexico gave a hint of how the crisis deepened in May, a month when 45% of import containers had not been delivered and 32% of export containers had not been shipped, while 40% of scheduled empty containers have not been received and shipped. The letter went on to say that, as a response to the crisis, ANAM had adjusted the issuance of appointments, according to the operational capacity of Manzanillo’s customs office, which caused SSA Marine Mexico’s  capacity to fall from 1,800 import appointments/day to 1,100/day. “This backlog has limited operational capacity at both terminals. If the scheduled appointments for 2 June [the letter was dated 30 May] are not met, the terminals will be severely affected, increasing the utilization of our yards, generating delays of more than two days in the berthing of upcoming vessels, and affecting our operations in general,” said the company. SSA Marine Mexico had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. The crisis now affects the entire supply chain – from the large terminal operators with more financial muscle to individual truck drivers for whom one day delay upend tight finances. A representative for the Manzanillo Freight Transporters Union (UTCM) said in a TV interview this week that costs for truck drivers are shooting up as the crisis extends. “For a typical carrier, it costs between [Mexican pesos (Ps)] 2,500-2,800/day ($130-146/day) if the truck is waiting, not able to load and has to wait. And, if you manage to get the load, the process of entering the port and then re-route to leave the port can take between eight and 12 hours,” they stated. UTCM was contacted for further comment but had not responded at the time of writing. AND THEN, THERE IS PAMAIn 2024, the Mexican government implemented the PAMA regulations aiming to improve the clearance of goods at customs facilities and the seizing of illegal goods. In practice, the detailed regulation has added costs in the form of bureaucracy and, in the case of chemicals, sharply slowed down the entry of imports into Mexico. PAMA entails companies now must give more information about the load. For example, if the declared weight of the load deviates in the slightest from the weight showed on the customs scale, this can be a reason to send the load back to square one, with a fine potentially also imposed, according to the source in chemicals distribution. “Right now, we have a container which has held for 45 days, and we can’t release it. There was a mismatch in the weight: it was missing two decimal places. We paid a fine, and corrected the error, but to no avail: today [4 June] we are still battling to release that container,” said the source. “It is a very serious problem – many of our loads get stuck because of PAMA-related issues, and becomes a burdensome, time-consuming process. Moreover, the fines are disproportionate, ranging from 70% to 100% of the value of the merchandise. And, since May, this problem has been compounded by Manzanillo’s crisis.” Insight by Jonathan Lopez  Thumbnail image: One of Manzanillo Port’s terminal. (Image source: Manzanillo’s port authority (ASIPONA Manzanillo))

LONDON (ICIS)–LyondellBasell has entered into exclusive talks with an industrial investor for the sale of four European production sites, slightly over a year after launching a review of its asset base in the region. The company entered into the talks with AEQUITA, a Germany-based investment group specialising in turnarounds and carve-outs. Other assets acquired by the firm include a bake disc technology company purchased from Bosch, a cloud solutions business from Fujitsu, and a glass manufacturer from Saint-Gobain. AEQUITA is in position to take control of four sites of the nine operated by LyondellBasell in Europe in the deal, spanning France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Sites to be sold Site Production (tonnes/year) Berre, France Ethylene (465,000 tonnes/year) LDPE (320,000 tonnes/year PP (350,000 tonnes/year Propylene (255,000 tonnes/year) Munchsmunster, Germany Ethylene (300,000 tonnes/year) HDPE (320,000 tonnes/year) Propylene (190,000 tonnes/year) Carrington, UK PP (210,000 tonnes/year) Tarragona, Spain PP (390,000 tonnes/year) That leaves LyondellBasell with its Knapsack and Wesseling, Germany, site – collectively its largest production centre in Europe – as well as Frankfurt, Germany; Moerdijk, Netherlands; Brindisi, Italy and Tarragona, Spain. Collectively, the sites represent a “scaled” olefins and polyolefins platform with operations close to customer demand, LyondellBasell said, although the size of the crackers in the portfolio are smaller than many capacities that have come on-stream in the last few years. “We are confident in our ability to accelerate their development under AEQUITA’s ownership approach,” said Christoph Himmel, Managing Partner at AEQUITA. The current agreement entered into takes the form of a put option deed, which grants the owner the right but not the obligation to sell an asset at a specific price. In this case, AEQUITA has agreed to purchase at the agreed-upon terms if LyondellBasell opts to exercise the option after concluding works council consultation processes. The financial terms of a sale have not yet been disclosed, but the current timeline would see the deal close in the first half of 2026, LyondellBasell added. The Europe review is part of a wider shift in footing towards three key pillars for the business. Announced in 2023, this is based on prioritizing spending on businesses where the company “has leading positions in expanding and well-positioned markets”, growing circular solutions earnings to $1 billion/year by 2030, and shifting from cost controls to a broader idea of value creation. The company’s strategy for its remaining European asset base will be based around sustainability and the circular economy, according to Lyondell CEO Peter Vanacker. “Europe remains a core market for LyondellBasell and one we will continue to participate in following this transaction with more of a focus on value creation through establishing profitable leadership in circular and renewable solutions,” he said. Update adds detail throughout Thumbnail photo: LyondellBasell’s site in Wesseling, Germany, one of the European assets it is retaining (Source: LyondellBasell)

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Majority of June deals heard so far rollover from May UK flake talks on going Some signs of lower interest for colourless flake EU Commission’s DG Environment confirms only EU-origin waste currently suitable for Single Use Plastics Directive 25% target

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian specialty chemicals producer Black Rose Industries and Japan’s Koei Chemical are conducting a joint feasibility study on building a specialty amines project in India. As part of the project, Black Rose will set up manufacturing facilities for the amine products while Koei Chemical will provide its proprietary technology for the production facilities, the company said in a bourse filing on 30 May. “The parties are expecting to enter into definitive agreements and will proceed with the construction and installation of plant facilities once the overall feasibility is established,” it added. Black Rose plans to set up the amine manufacturing facility at its chemicals complex at Jhagadia in the western Gujarat state, a company source said, but did not provide information regarding the product mix at the new plant or the project cost. “We are excited to enter the field of specialty amines which play an important role for the future growth of the chemical industry in India,” Black Rose chairman Anup Jatia said. Black Rose currently operates acrylamide and polyacrylamide plants at its Jhagadia complex. Acrylamide is used in the production of polymers, wastewater treatment, and food processing while polyacrylamide is used in pulp and paper production, agriculture, food processing, mining, among others.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s revised real GDP shrank by 0.2% on-quarter, unchanged from advanced estimates in April, the first on-quarter contraction in nine months, central bank data showed on Thursday. Exports fall 0.6% on drop in chemical products GDP growth forecasted at 1.0% – OECD US trade negotiations, economic policy on new president Lee’s agenda Real GDP growth shrank 0.1% year-on-year in January-March 2025 amid political turmoil from a martial law declaration as well as US tariffs, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said in a statement. Both manufacturing and exports decreased by 0.6% quarter on quarter, mainly on drops in production and export of chemical products as well as machinery and equipment. Private consumption decreased by 0.1% as consumers spent less on services such as recreation, sport, and culture, while government consumption remained at the same level as the previous quarter. South Korea elected its new president Lee Jae-myung on 4 June, ending six months of chaos wrought by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law, Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Market Research said in a note on 4 June. His immediate goals will be to boost the economy and “restore livelihoods” while balancing US trade negotiations with China relations, as the two world’s largest economies continue talks towards ending a trade war. Lee has until 8 July, when a 90-day suspension on 25% “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will be lifted, to negotiate a US trade deal. A supplementary spending package worth 0.1% of GDP, or won (W) 13.8 trillion ($10 billion), was approved by the government in May, while Lee has announced an economic task force to boost growth. Talks have been ongoing since April but with no definitive result due to South Korea’s presidential void. The country announced a snap election on 8 April after Yoon was impeached and removed from office. “Despite external uncertainties, the domestic outlook may start to pick up after the presidential election,” UOB said, forecasting a 1.0% GDP growth for 2025. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the South Korean economy to recover in 2026, projecting growth by 2.2% in 2026, it said in a report on 3 June. However, the BoK sharply lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.8% from 1.5% previously, warning that tariffs and economic uncertainty would lead to weaker exports. “Going forward, domestic demand is expected to recover modestly but at a slower pace, while exports are expected to slow further due to the impact of US tariffs,” the BoK said on 29 May. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Thumbnail image: Mandatory Credit: Aerial view of a container pier in South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan (Source: YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is tempering what could be a recovery in US demand for polypropylene (PP), executives at Braskem said on Wednesday. Uncertainty about the final makeup of tariffs and their effects on end markets have caused consumers and companies to delay purchases, said Alexandre Elias, vice president, PP, North America and Europe, Braskem. Elias made his comments in an interview with ICIS on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Companies are reluctant to build inventories and make investments – especially industrial PP customers that have long investment cycles, Elias said. TARIFFS HAVE COUNTERVAILING EFFECTS ON AUTOAutomobiles are one of the main end markets for PP, and the tariffs have had mixed effects on production, contributing to the uncertainty of PP demand from the sector. The US has imposed tariffs on imports of automobiles and auto parts, which could ultimately stimulate local production and PP demand. Prior to those tariffs, consumers splurged on automobiles to beat the tariffs. All of that pre-buying lowered inventories of US autos, said Bill Diebold, vice president – commercial, Braskem America, polyolefins. US producers will ultimately replenish those inventories, which will further increase auto output and PP demand. On the other hand, consumer confidence has fallen after the introduction of the tariffs and that tends to slow demand growth for automobiles and other durable goods that are made with PP. Chinese restrictions on shipments of rare earth magnets could cause some automobile companies to shut down production within weeks if they cannot find workarounds, according to an article from the Wall Street Journal, a business publication. The US recently increased its tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium to 50% from 25%, which would increase production costs for US automobiles and potentially make them less affordable. The future of the tariffs themselves is uncertain because the US frequently changes the rates. It could impose new tariffs, and the courts could rule that the US lacks authority to impose them under a key provision. The interactions of all of these variables make it difficult to forecast PP demand from the US automobile industry, Elias said. PP DEMAND REMAINS FLAT YEAR ON YEARIn the US, PP demand is up in Q2 versus Q1 but flat year on year, Diebold said. Similarly demand improved in Q1 versus Q4, the latter of which was a challenging time for the US market, Diebold said. Packaging, another major end market for PP, remains strong. PP is enjoying a boost from a wave of product substitutions, Elias said. Over the years, many polystyrene (PS) processors have switched to PP because of its price. Many of those substitutions have played out, but a smaller wave is now taking place. That said, uncertainty could be capping the potential of product substitutions from other processors. LPG RESTRICTIONS TO CHINA COULD ALTER PP TRADE FLOWSGlobal trade flows of PP could change significantly if the US restricts exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China. China relies heavily on US LPG shipments to provide feedstock for its large fleet of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, which produce on-purpose propylene. The US already has imposed restrictions on exports of ethane to China, which would disrupt a few ethane crackers in the country. If trade tensions rise, it could expand the restrictions to cover LPG. Global markets got a taste of the ramifications of restricted LPG shipments earlier this year when China increased tariffs on US imports by triple digits. Had China maintained those increases, Chinese propylene production would likely fall, according to ICIS. China could still procure LPG from exporters from other parts of the world, but that would increase costs and make some production uncompetitive. Lower Chinese propylene production would have a cascading effect. It could lower domestic production of PP and cut down on Chinese exports to other parts of Asia. That, in turn, could allow domestic Asian producers to sell more material locally, allowing them to be less aggressive about exporting PP, Elias said. “This could have a significant impact on trade flows globally,” Elias said. In fact, restrictions on US LPG shipments to China would likely have a bigger effect on PP trade flows then actual tariffs on the resin. So far, the introduction of US tariffs has had little direct effect on US PP, because the market is relatively balanced. In 2023 and 2024, apparent consumption was about 85% of total production in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Braskem does have an option to export PP from a terminal in Charleston, South Carolina, but this terminal functions more as a way to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities and leverage its PP plants in North America, Elias said. As an option, it has worked well. LITTLE NEED FOR NEW PROPYLENE CAPACITYBraskem relies on third parties for propylene for its PP plants in the US. So far, there is no need for Braskem to build its own propylene capacity, Elias said. The US is long in propylene, as illustrated by the global competitiveness of its exports, he said While Braskem has relied on propylene imports from Canada, trade tensions between it and the US have eased. Were trade tensions to resume and cause an increase in tariffs, Braskem could manage around it, Elias said. The ACC Annual Meeting runs through Wednesday. Focus article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a product made with PP. Image by Shutterstock.

LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission has confirmed to ICIS that only recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) produced using plastic waste in the EU can currently count towards the 25% recycled content target set out under the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD). In an email to ICIS, a spokesperson for the Directorate-General for Environment (DG-ENV) stated that the 25% target laid out in the SUPD can ‘only be achieved using post-consumer plastic waste generated from plastic products that have been placed on the EU market’. This expands on Point 4 of Implementing Decision 2023/2683 having regard to Directive (EU) 2019/904 (the SUPD), which states: ‘Post-consumer plastic waste needs to be understood as waste generated from plastic products that have been placed on the market.’  The confirmation from the Commission clarifies what many R-PET market participants had already assumed – but not necessarily confirmed – that the 25% target can only be reached by using waste that has come from within the EU. It therefore rules out the use of plastic waste or material produced from plastic waste that has been placed on a market outside the EU. FUTURE CHANGESThe Commission confirmed that it is currently preparing an implementing act, planned for Q4 2025, that will extend the calculation, verification and reporting methodology to cover all recycling technologies, including chemical recycling. This will repeal and replace the existing act and contains a broader definition of ‘recycled plastic’ which will be the same as the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) and will cover recyclates ‘stemming from post-consumer plastic waste generated from plastic products that have been placed on markets outside of the EU’. Article 7 of the PPWR sets out the 30% recycled content target for PET bottles by 2030, in which paragraph 3(a), among other things, states that recycled content shall be recovered from post-consumer plastic waste that: “…has been collected within the Union pursuant to this Regulation or the national rules transposing Directives 2008/98/EC and (EU) 2019/904, as relevant, or that has been collected in a third country in accordance with standards for separate collection to promote high-quality recycling equivalent to those referred to in this Regulation and Directives 2008/98/EC and (EU) 2019/904, as relevant.” R-PET market participants have welcomed the clarification although there are concerns that bringing the SUPD in line with the PPWR – in terms of allowing recycled produced from waste placed on markets outside of the EU – will open up the European market to cheaper imports of recycled material. The Commission is currently drafting the methodology for calculation and verification of the PPWR’s recycled content targets due in December 2026.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Is the petrochemicals industry really a free market? Or have we been telling ourselves a comforting fiction? As we sift through margins, P&Ls, and operating rates to predict a recovery, we might be asking the wrong questions. Let’s rewind to 2014. While China’s state media signalled a major push toward self-sufficiency in petrochemicals, many Western analysts dismissed it — seeing China through the lens of profit maximisation. But I was told way back in 2000 that China’s strategy had just as much to do with jobs and economic value creation as with profits. Fast forward to today: polyester fibres, , polyethylene terephthalate (PET) film and bottle grade resins, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), styrene and polypropylene (PP),— China is nearly or completely self-sufficient in these markets. The drivers? National security, supply certainty, and industrial policy. And it’s not just China. Middle East investments — underpinned by cheap feedstocks, state ownership, and now oil demand substitution — follow similar, non-market logic. If key players haven’t been led by market signals alone, what happens next? Despite the deepest downturn in petrochemical history — likely to stretch into 2028 — new capacities keep rising. Not from those chasing short-term profit, but from those with long-term, state-backed agendas. Just a modest rise in China’s PP operating rates above the ICIS base case assumption could flip China into being a net exporter by 2027. The trade war may play a role here, as it has increased supply security concerns. True, there are more private petrochemical companies in China than ten years ago. But this latest wave of investment is more state-owned-enterprise-led than the previous one. And private companies can also benefit from local and central government support Saudi investments in refinery-to-petrochemicals will persist. More ethane crackers in the Middle East will be built. China’s plant-build costs are often 50%+ lower than the U.S., thanks to relentless innovation support. So… what does this mean for producers operating on pure market terms? Can they survive, let alone thrive, in a landscape shaped by strategic ambition rather than shareholder return? Your thoughts are welcome. Let’s start the conversation. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.