LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 20 December. Stagnant manufacturing, overcapacity, looming trade war weigh on Europe chems in 2025 Europe’s petrochemical sector will be under even more pressure in 2025 as demand from the region’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction, global overcapacity gets worse and amid the possibility of increased exports from China and the US. Europe melamine December contracts roll over, Q4 contracts rise on margin pressure European December melamine contracts were assessed steady, in line with market feedback. Europe paraxylene December contract price up €5/tonne The Europe paraxylene (PX) December contract reference price rose €5/tonne from November’s levels. German business sentiment weakest since May 2020 German business sentiment dropped to its lowest point since May 2020 in December, according to the latest data from the Ifo Institute on Tuesday. Eurozone private sector closes out 2024 in contraction as manufacturing slows The eurozone private sector ended the year on a bearish note as output contracted driven by a weakening manufacturing sector, which offset a return to growth for services.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 20 December. Study on Oman’s Duqm petrochemical complex to be completed in 2025 By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 15:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A feasibility study for a joint venture petrochemical complex in the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Oman will be completed in 2025, an official from Oman’s national oil and gas company OQ told ICIS. UPDATE: South Korea bourse closes lower, won softer after Yoon’s impeachment By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s benchmark stock market index was closed lower on Monday, snapping four straight days of gains, after the country’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over the weekend for imposing a short-lived martial law on 3 December. UPDATE: ChemOne’s Malaysia $5.3bn complex start-up delayed to Q4 2028 By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Dec-24 21:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ChemOne Group has delayed the start-up of its $5.3 billion Pengerang Energy Complex (PEC) in Johor, Malaysia to Q4 2028, after facing “complex financing” issues, the CEO of the project’s operator said on Monday. Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan to shut some PE, PP units in line with cracker shutdown By Izham Ahmad 17-Dec-24 12:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan will shut some of its downstream polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) plants to account for a reduction in feedstock after it shuts down one of its crackers in Pasir Gudang, according to market sources. INSIGHT: China economy ends 2024 on mixed note amid Trump 2.0 concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Dec-24 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic data in November were mixed, with weaker retail sales growth offset by some signs of stability in property prices and a slightly quicker industrial output growth, as policymakers brace for more US trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second time. INSIGHT: China oil demand to peak in 2026 as transportation fuel drags By Fanny Zhang 19-Dec-24 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to see its overall oil demand peaking in 2026 amid ongoing changes in the key transportation market, analysts said. Oil prices fall on stronger US dollar, looming US government shutdown By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell sharply on Friday on a stronger US dollar and amid a looming US government shutdown over the failure to pass a budget bill in the House of Representatives. Asia BD imports stay supported by China domestic market bull run By Ai Teng Lim 20-Dec-24 14:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment is buoyant in Asia’s butadiene (BD) import market as sellers chase higher selling targets, emboldened by what they perceive as strong buying power in China. Bank of Japan maintains interest rates as Nov core inflation surges By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 14:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its interest rates unchanged as inflation levels rose to 2.7% year on year in November, raising analyst expectations of a rate hike in Q1 2025.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) has announced the launch of the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity (VACI) program, which is a voluntary certification of the carbon footprint of ammonia production at a specific facility. The VACI is the first program of its kind with the industry group saying it is designed to provide ammonia consumers seeking to reduce emissions across their supply chains with an independent and certifiable carbon intensity score. TFI said the VACI certification framework will standardize the approach for calculating the carbon intensity of ammonia encompassing all aspects of ammonia manufacturing from feedstock production through the finished product at the plant gate. Producers will use the VACI standard to calculate the carbon intensity of ammonia produced at their facilities then an independent, third-party auditor will then verify or validate that the carbon intensity score is accurate. TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said ammonia is a critical input for both agriculture, emissions control and many commercial products including fabric and pharmaceuticals. “As agriculture and other industries increasingly look to develop more sustainable and resilient supply chains, the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program provides ammonia consumers with certifiable transparency that will allow them to quantify the positive impact using low-carbon ammonia has on their greenhouse gas emissions footprint,” said Rosenbusch. Ammonia production typically uses natural gas as a feedstock for its hydrogen component and is an energy-intensive process with substantial carbon dioxide emissions as a byproduct. Currently there are US ammonia producers who are investing in technologies to dramatically reduce emissions with the VACI enabling them to document the varying levels of emissions reduction these technologies provide. The VACI program was developed by TFI in collaboration with technical industry experts from producers CF Industries, LSB, Nutrien, OCI and Yara with guidance from Hinicio, a strategic and technical consulting firm specializing in hydrogen and its derivatives and industrial decarbonization. Facilities certified under the program include Nutrien at Redwater in Canada and CF Industries in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, with audits that have been completed. Audits for LSB Industries in El Dorado, Arkansas, and CVR Energy in Coffeyville, Kansas, in progress. TFI said the VACI is undertaking a 60-day public consultation period for ammonia consumers and stakeholders to provide feedback on the program and its methodology and intends to refine the program based on comments received.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US surged this week as importers pulled volumes forward ahead of the possible restart of the US Gulf and East Coast port strike and anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. Rates from Asia to both US coasts had been trending steadily lower since July. Rates from Shanghai to New York began stabilizing in October before surging by almost 17% this week, according to data from supply chain advisors Drewry. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles were falling steadily before jumping by almost 26% this week, as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Drewry has global average rates up by 8% this week, as shown in its World Container Index. Drewry expects an increase in rates on the transpacific trade in the coming week, driven by front-loading ahead of the looming port strike and possible tariffs. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also showed significant increases to both coasts. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, suggested that the pull-forward for the pending strike is largely over as the pre-15 January arrival window has closed. Levine thinks a strike – or at least a prolonged one – is unlikely now that President-elect Trump has backed the union in the dispute. But the anticipation of increased tariffs is still driving some unseasonal volume strength, Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STABLE Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were unchanged this week for most trade lanes ex-USG. For the USG to ARA, both spot cargoes and contract of affreightment (COA) nominations to northwest Europe took a slight dip this week, with minimal opportunities quoted but remained relatively flat week over week. COA volumes for January are still pending so it is not clear how much space will be available, but sentiment is that contract business will be strong, making spot space harder to find. Along the USG to Asia route, there was a bit more activity this week with January base oils, ethanol and vegoil requirements being quoted out in the market. The January chemical COAs are showing healthy levels, and most regulars are reporting that space is currently tight on paper. Most market participants expect rates to remain steady for the balance of the year. COA nominations are strong on the USG-Brazil trade lane with still some space available for the end of December. However, several traders were in the market with 10,000 tonnes of caustic soda ex-Point Comfort to Santos for loading on prompt dates. So far, no fixture has been reported yet, leaving this market overall quiet. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–A hoped-for recovery in Germany’s chemical industry has been pushed out to 2026, as shown by an industry survey presented at a webinar hosted by chemical producers’ trade group VCI. No recovery before 2026 Chemical production seen flat in 2025 Persistent lack of orders The VCI survey, conducted in November, found that 52% of German chemical companies expect a recovery to only take place in 2026 or later, whereas a previous survey conducted this summer showed that a majority had expected a recovery in 2025. Now, only 22% expect a recovery in the second half of 2025 while 8% expect it to occur in the first half, according to the latest survey As for sales and profits, 33% expect a sales decline in 2025 and 46% expect lower profits. Companies are particularly pessimistic about sales expectations for Germany and Europe, but are less pessimistic about business outside Europe. With nearly every second company expecting falling profits next year, business will remain difficult, said VCI economist Christiane Kellermann. LACK OF ORDERS The share of companies complaining about a lack of orders is around 40%, the same level as at the start of the coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, she said. Producers have been complaining about a lack of orders since the end of 2022, and there was still no prospect of an improvement, she said. The share of companies stating that a lack of orders was no problem for them and that business was good was “vanishingly small”, she added. New orders were weak both domestically and internationally, she said. LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS Germany as a place for industrial production is losing competitiveness because of its high bureaucratic costs, high labor costs, high taxes and levies, and high energy costs, she said. Adding to these challenges is rising geopolitical uncertainty, in particular in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 5 November US presidential election, she said. Companies were trying to determine what Trump’s second term as president will mean for them in terms of trade conflicts and tariffs. They were not only worried about direct tariff impacts, but also about the impact on China where the tariffs are likely prompt producers to ship more product to Europe, she said. As for German politics, there are hopes that a new government next year will address at least some of the challenges the country faces, she said. The coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed last month, and new elections are expected to be held in February. CHEMICAL PRODUCTION TO STAGNATE IN 2025 In 2024, total chemical-pharmaceutical production rose 2.0%, led by a 4.0% increase in chemicals, according to preliminary data, Kellermann said. 2024, percentage change in production, by major segments: Inorganic basic chemicals: +7.0% Petrochemicals: +8.5% Polymers: +4.0% Fine and specialty chemicals: -2.0% Consumer chemicals: +2.0% Pharmaceuticals: -1.5% While some segments saw a significant year-on-year increase in production, the increases did not offset the declines in 2023, she said. Demand for chemicals across industrial customers was weak, especially in Germany, she said. For 2025, VCI currently forecasts that chemical/pharmaceutical production will inch up 0.5%, with chemical production expected to stagnate: Production, year-on-year %-changes   2025 forecast 2024 (based on preliminary data) 2023 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals +0.5% +2.0% -7.9% Chemicals (ex pharma) flat +4.0% -10.4% COMPANIES REACT Companies are reacting to the challenges they face in Germany with a range of measures, Kellermann said. They include restructuring; improvements in productivity and energy efficiency; cost cutting programmess; shifting production abroad; divestments of businesses lines; and plant closures, she said. The country was seeing a permanent shutdown in production, and this trend may accelerate, she added. Only 25% of the chemical companies surveyed expect their investments in plants, equipment and machinery at German locations to increase next year, whereas 40% expect their investments to decline. On the other hand, 46% expect an increase in their investments abroad. Companies were investing, but not necessarily in Germany, Kellermann said. VCI chief economist Henrik Meincke, who also presented at the webinar, said following steady growth in the years after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, “multiple shocks” have hit Germany’s economy and its energy-intensive industrial producers since 2018: 2018/19: US-China trade conflict 2020: Pandemic lockdowns 2020/21: Supply chain crisis 2022: Ukraine war and energy price shock 2023: Inflation, and high interest rates to contain it Germany was currently in a stagflation phase, with core-inflation above 2% – and this has come at a time of enormous political and economic risks as well as the challenge of transforming the economy to net zero-emissions, he said. Thumbnail photo of BASF’s Ludwigshafen site; source: BASF

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Dakota Gasification Company has confirmed that the company and fertilizer producer OCI decided earlier this month to dissolve their joint marketing venture N-7 and that it will begin its own fertilizer sales and marketing beginning 1 February. This move comes after a strategic review by both parties it was determined to dissolve the joint venture, which was focused on selling nitrogen fertilizers, industrial ammonia, urea liquor and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). Since the partnership formed in July 2018, N-7 has shipped over 26.5 million short tons of product to more than 520 customers in 3,100 cities. The company said it will continue to offer the same products moving forward including ammonia and urea, and rather than reduce their workforce this change has lifted levels. “We have expanded our team with highly skilled professionals to enhance our ability to deliver exceptional products and service to our customers,” said a Dakota Gasification Company spokesperson. The parent company said in a statement the decision reflects a mutual recognition of the unique growth opportunities available to both companies independently. “This partnership allowed us to serve our customers with exceptional products while achieving significant milestones together,” said Daniel Gallagher, Basin Electric commodity sales & trading director. “Dakota Gas remains committed to producing and delivering high-quality products to our customers.” The companies will honor all agreements previously undertaken by N-7 with a spokesperson saying, “the market has responded favorably to our decision”. Netherlands-based OCI has not responded for comment but when the partnership was first announced it had stated N-7 would market and distribute product from Iowa Fertilizer Company, the OCI Partners operations in Texas and the Dakota Gas facility in North Dakota. In addition, it intended to market any imported product from their operations outside North America. Ending the N-7 venture follows the sale of Iowa Fertilizer Company and OCI Beaumont.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–With the 15 January target date for a new master agreement between union dock workers and US Gulf and East Coast ports rapidly approaching, the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) is urging both sides to push back the deadline. Negotiations between the dockworkers, represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), and the ports, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), have been stalled as each side is unwilling to budge on issues surrounding automation of ports. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. ACD President and CEO Eric Byer outlined the challenges hindering negotiations and emphasized the significant economic and public consequences of a contract lapse in a letter to both parties. Byer also highlighted the economic impacts the previous three-day strike caused to various industries and the challenges the chemical distribution industry would face if another strike were to occur. Other challenges are the 29 January start of the Lunar New Year, and the upcoming inauguration and transition to the new presidential administration. “In early October, during the three-day lapse in the master contract between the ILA and USMX, there was a substantial economic impact, weeks of supply chain disruptions, and challenges in getting necessary supplies to communities in the wake of the Hurricane Helene disaster,” Byer said in the letter. “Additionally, had the lapse continued for just a few more days, it would have resulted in ACD members losing stock of chemicals used for critical processes, such as water treatment.” In a 12 December post on social media, President-elect Donald Trump expressed his support for the dockworkers in the labor dispute. A strike would not have an impact on liquid chemical tankers, which transport most chems. For most traders and brokers who export polyvinyl chloride (PVC), much of their warehouse space is full and they are unable to book vessels until after the 15 January deadline because of the uncertainty. “This could make for a very challenging first quarter,” ICIS Senior Analyst Kelly Coutu said.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical plants and refineries along the Gulf Coast of the US will likely face another winter that will be warmer than usual but punctuated with brief periods of freezing temperatures, which could disrupt operations. Meteorologists expect winter temperatures in the US will be colder than the previous year but still warmer than average. A meteorologist in Texas warned that the state could face another brief spell of freezing temperatures similar to past winters, such as the devastating Winter Storm Uri in 2021. Chemical plants in the Gulf Coast still have trouble operating in freezing temperatures despite improvements made since Uri. COLD SPELLS CONTINUE TO DISRUPT GULF COAST CHEM PLANTSBrief spells of freezing temperatures are becoming an annual feature of winters in the Gulf Coast, even as the overall season becomes warmer, according to a presentation made earlier this year by Chris Coleman, the supervisor of operational forecasting at Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the flow of electricity in most of the state. This upcoming winter could continue the trend. Coleman warned that the state has a greater than average chance of suffering from freezing temperatures – even though the season as a whole will be warmer than usual. Meteorology firm AccuWeather also warned that the US will be vulnerable to a blast of cold temperatures despite the forecast for a warm winter. Such blasts are caused by polar vortexes, and February is the most probable month when one will move across the eastern US. AccuWeather did not say whether such a polar vortex could hit Texas. CHANCES OF CHEM OUTAGESFor chemical plants, freezing temperatures can cause outages by disrupting operations or by blackouts caused by excessive electricity demand. Such a demand spike caused the widespread plant outages during winter storm Uri in 2021. Since then, Texas has avoided state-wide outages despite continued cold spells and growing demand for electricity. The state’s power grid is more reliable, and it has conducted more weatherization inspections, ERCOT said. If the power grid in Texas holds up this winter, then chemical disruptions would be caused by freezing temperatures shutting down operations at specific plants. Even after Uri, steps taken by some companies still did not prevent cold temperatures from disrupting their operations. During the freeze of December 2022, TotalEnergies shut down its polypropylene (PP) units at La Porte, Texas, even though the company said it took all precautions possible through freeze protection and heat tracing. US WINTER COOLER THAN 2023-2024Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect winter temperatures will be warmer than average for the southern and eastern US. That said, they will still be cooler than the previous year, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Those cooler temperatures have led the EIA to expect average prices for natural gas to reach $3.00/million Btu in 2025, up from $2.20/million Btu in 2024. Natural gas is important to the chemical industry because they use it as fuel and because it influences prices for ethane, the predominant feedstock that US crackers use to make ethylene. MORE LNG TERMINALS WILL START UPA growing source of gas demand is made up of terminals that export liquefied natural gas (LNG). The following table lists the terminals that should start up in 2025 and later. Capacity figures are listed in millions of tonnes/year. Project Developer Capacity Estimates Start Up Corpus Christi Stage 3 Cheniere 10 2025 Plaquemines LNG Venture Global 20 2025 Golden Pass LNG ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy 15.6 2027 Port Arthur LNG Sempra 13 2027 Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 NextDecade 17.6 2027 Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows ice. Image by David J Phillip/AP/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Lots of focus has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions also increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described in today’s post. See today’s, main slide, showing China’s percentage shares of global capacities for some polymers in 2009 (the beginning of China’s giant economic stimulus programme) versus 2021 (the Evergrande Turning Point) and 2025. Producers elsewhere, seeing charts such as this one, could be anxious to protect market share and avoid commoditisation for polymers such as acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) which can be higher value in some end-use applications. In polypropylene (PP), China’s share of global capacities was just 15% in 2009 and 26% in 2021. ICIS forecasts this will next year jump to 45%. We have already seen an uptick in protectionist measures against Chinese PP. More broadly, China’s investment in export-based manufacturing capacity has accelerated since late 2021 to compensate for the end of the property bubble. China has dominated exports of finished goods for 20-odd years. But ICIS data, such as today’s first chart, and other data show that this has gone to a different level since the end of 2021. International trade used to be a win/win game, but the data suggest that China has recently gained stronger positions in low, medium and high-value manufacturing. What form will any increase in protectionism take in 2025? To what extent could it be short-term our “knee jerk” versus further strategic initiatives to reshore manufacturing? To what degree is it too late for strategies in some countries and regions? I’ve been recently polling people on the German auto industry. It is too late to turn around the decline in the industry, was the majority view. If true, this would obviously have huge implications for Germany’s chemicals companies. If “protectionism” and “China” are the words of the year in 2025, expect chemicals trade flows and pricing patterns to be significantly reshaped by announcements of investigations into new duties and the imposition of duties. Keeping on top of news on trade protectionism, especially if you can get the news before your competitors, will be a significant competitive advantage. And every action can promote a reaction. We must consider how China might respond to more duties. Its responses will of course also affect chemicals trade flows, pricing patterns and demand in different regions. Good luck out there. Next year is going to be very, very challenging for reasons beyond just protectionism. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.