BARCELONA (ICIS)–Two liquids-to-chemicals project announcements by Saudi Aramco highlight a new source of rapid capacity growth which will add to global overcapacity. Middle East oil and gas companies want to push crude-oil-to-chemicals (COTC) as demand for transport fuels declines Saudi Aramco aims to convert around 4 million barrels/day of crude oil into chemicals by 2030 versus about 1 million barrels/day currently Demand growth will not be sufficient to meet rising supply More closures will be needed to balance the market In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development executive John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s chemicals output in October fell by 2.2% year on year, but overall production is expected to continue posting growth well into early next year, led by the electronics sector. Oct overall manufacturing output up 1.2% year on year Key exports fell by 4.6% year on year in Oct Outlook for 2025 remains cloudy on expected protectionist measures Output from the specialties segment fell by 31.7% year on year in October on lower production of mineral oil additives and biofuels, data from Singapore’s Economic Development Board (EDB) showed on Tuesday. October petroleum output declined by 0.3% year on year, while petrochemical output grew by 4.6%. In January-October this year, output from the chemicals cluster posted a 5.0% year-on-year growth. Singapore’s overall manufacturing output in October rose by 1.2% year on year, partly driven by the electronics sector which grew by 4.3%. On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis, manufacturing output barely grew, inching up 0.1% in October. Singapore is a leading petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell, based at its Jurong Island hub. “For the rest of 2024 and into early next year, growth momentum in trade-related sectors (including manufacturing) should be sustained, supported by the ongoing upturn in the electronics cycle,” said Jester Koh, an associate economist at Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Tailwinds from some front-loading of exports and attendant ramp up in production ahead of [US President-elect Donald] Trump’s proposed tariffs would also lend support to overall industrial output, Koh said. On 22 November, Singapore downgraded its full-year 2024 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth forecast to around 1%, from an earlier projection of 4-5% made in August, according to trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore. “While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth,” it said. Trump on 26 November said that he would sign an executive order upon taking office on 20 January 2025 to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and also outlined “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China. For 2025, the outlook remains cloudy, and downside risks could emanate from further protectionist measures under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, elevated geopolitical tensions, possible peak in the electronics cycle and uncertainty over the pace of monetary easing by major central banks, UOB’s Koh said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical shares were mostly lower on Tuesday after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. In a post on social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump also said that he would impose 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. At 03:15 GMT, Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals was down 1.22% in Tokyo; Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp declined by 1.25% in Taipei; and South Korea’s Hanwha Corp fell by 2.79% in Seoul. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was down by 1.34% at 38,260.38; South Korea’s KOSPI Composite slipped by 0.56% to 2,520.14; while China’s CSI 300 index inched up by 0.16% to 3,854.09. “I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail,” Trump said. “Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.” Trump is set to be inaugurated as the next US president on 20 January 2025. “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. He stated that the tariff will remain in effect until Mexico and Canada address the issues of illegal immigration and the influx of deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl into the US. During his election campaign, Trump promised to implement sweeping new tariffs aimed at protecting American industries, promoting domestic manufacturing, and reducing reliance on foreign imports. Trump had said he intends to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10-20% tariffs on products from other countries, among others, arguing that the measures can create more factory jobs, shrink the federal deficit, and lower prices for American-made goods by making foreign goods more expensive, Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING said in a note. In 2024, the US imported goods worth around $3.1 trillion, with $427 billion or around 14% of the total coming from China, according to ING. Thumbnail image: Busy Yangzhou Port in Jiangsu, China – 16 November 2024 (Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Costs for ethane, the predominate feedstock for US ethylene plants, could face upward pressure with the startup of the first train of the Golden Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which has reached a new milestone following setbacks earlier this year. The project’s owner, Golden Pass LNG Terminal, had reached an agreement with the contractor in regards to the commercial terms for the completion of the full scope of the first train of the project, according to a statement published on Monday by Chiyoda International, a contractor. Chiyoda and CB&I are partners in the joint venture that is building the terminal. Another joint venture is the owner of the terminal. That joint venture is made up of QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%). Earlier in November, ExxonMobil said the first train of Golden Pass should start up at the end of 2025. The joint venture and the contractors are in talks to amend the contract to complete the second and third train of the LNG terminal, Chiyoda said. The second train could start up six months after the first one, ExxonMobil had said earlier in November. The third train could take another six months to start up. The three trains at Golden Pass will have the capacity to export 15.6 million tonnes/year. GOLDEN PASS SOURCE OF UPWARD PRESSURE ON CHEM COSTSLNG terminals such as Golden Pass increase demand for natural gas, which can cause prices for the fuel to rise. That, in turn, can affect costs for ethane, the main feedstock used to make ethylene in the US. When natural gas prices are high relative to ethane prices, ethane rejection becomes more attractive, said Kojo Orgle, feedstock analyst for ICIS. Orgle monitors the US markets for ethane and other petrochemical feedstock. Increased ethane rejection, in turn, tightens supply fundamentals and puts upward pressure on ethane prices, Orgle said. Rising natural gas demand for LNG exports could effectively elevate ethane prices. One LNG project should start up by the end of 2024, when Cheniere begins operations at stage three of its 10 million tonne/year LNG project in Corpus Christi, Texas. Another source of cost pressure on ethane is growing capacity to export ethane. Midstream companies are expanding ethane terminals. On the other hand, US supplies of ethane should continue growing because of rising production of oil and natural gas. LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH FROM US CRACKERSDomestic demand for ethane should see limited growth because few companies are building new crackers in the US. The only confirmed US project is a joint-venture cracker that Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy should start up in late 2026 in Texas. Shintech could build a cracker in Louisiana, but the company has yet to announce a final investment decision (FID). DETAILS OF GOLDEN PASS PROJECTThe Golden Pass terminal is being developed at Sabine Pass, Texas, next to Louisiana. The project has faced delays following the bankruptcy of its former lead contractor, Zachry Industrial. Earlier in October, Golden Pass LNG was granted an additional three years to finish construction of the plant, extending the deadline to 30 November 2029. The Texas project had also requested to the Department of Energy that its deadline for the start of commercial operations be extended to 2027. Additional reporting by Lars Kjoellesdal Thumbnail shows natural gas. Image by Shutterstock

LNG charter rates hit fresh lows Sources concerned rates could fall further, backwardating or turning negative Such low rates likely mean more steam ships scrapped or laid up next year LONDON (ICIS)–LNG spot charter rates continue to decline as shipping sources become concerned that prices are shifting into backwardation and that negative rates are emerging in the market. Negative rates are expected to hit steam-propelled vessels soon, with these already at zero, according to several sources on Monday. Shipping rates have fallen to the lowest levels recorded by ICIS due to growing length in the shipping market, with over 60 LNG carriers delivered over the course of 2024 and more than 80 expected in 2025 and in 2026, according to ICIS data. That means shipping capacity is growing faster than expected production increases over the coming two years. Another source added last week that spreads between lower charter rates in December and higher rates in February could be deceptive. They said rates for charters over the coming three months could quickly tumble as backwardation sets in. Rates are usually expected to be in contango in early winter. Putting December Two-stroke vessels at close to $10,000s/day, they added that “January and February won’t be any better, with the market really struggling under so many new vessels.” Others who said rates of around $20,000/day were still fair for Two-stroke vessels last Friday also said on Monday that they had slipped below this level, as the market reaches more consensus over continued rate drops. Sources also have mixed views on whether rates could drop even further. “Who knows [if prices have bottomed now]” said one broker. “You think it’s going up and then it softens again.” Some chartering agreements were also reported at the end of last week. CHARTER AGREEMENTS The MEGA 2-stroke Saint Barbara was chartered out to INPEX’s IT Marine Transport PTE (ITMT) for a loading from Darwin with redelivery to Japan in the low $20,000s/day. But Bp chartered in the MEGI Two-stroke Global Energy for 19 December from the US Gulf for $10,000/day, with ADNOC chartering in a 149,000cbm SEFE vessel from Das Island between 15-30 December for a multi-month charter at the same rate. NEGATIVE RATES Steam vessel rates, most at risk of turning negative, were quoted at between $4,000/day-$11,000/day last week, with these quoted at zero on 25 November. Shipping rates are normally assessed on a round-trip basis, as reflected in most physical chartering agreements. If a vessel is let for multiple journeys, its re-delivery to a specified point is also usually included. Although one source on Monday also said they thought prices had now hit a floor, hire rates could go even lower and trade in negative territory “to get closer to one way economics,” explained another. This essentially means that no ballast bonus is included in a charter price, so that the owner must pay entire costs to move a vessel to its next desired location once a delivery is made. One source said that every time the market expects charter rates have hit a floor in recent weeks, rates then soften further, while a third said that while negative rates may not come to place, “they are clearly now a very real possibility”. “Some smaller vessels will probably now do the laden leg for zero as long as the vessel can be kept cold,” said another, although for most vessels repositioning is still expected to be covered and that most charterers are only looking at vessels of around 174,000cbm. Steam vessel lay-ups are also being considered by some shipowners, they added, saying they had not seen this yet because of the higher costs. “Initial lay-up fees can be over $1m, so we’ve not seen this happening yet. “But I am sure next year a lot of steamers will go into lay-up …or just be scrapped,” they added. Lay-ups can also cost around $20,000/day. Additional reporting from Lars Kjoellesdal

LONDON (ICIS)–November’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices have eased in the face of dispiriting demand and as maintenance season comes to a close in Europe. ICIS senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake weigh up what’s behind the November trends, how forex and logistics might be affecting the markets and what’s in store for December. They also discuss ICIS coverage of European PE, PP players adapting value propositions in the face of an evolving market, and Think Tank’s podcast episode: Trump trade war will drive end of globalization for chemicals. Editing by Will Beacham

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 22 November. INSIGHT: Europe, US chemicals have most to lose from a new trade war Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US presidential election gives him a powerful mandate for a policy agenda which includes ramping up trade tariffs across the board as he pursues his re-shoring agenda. APLA ’24: LatAm chems should prepare for rebalancing to take place only from 2030 onwards – APLA Latin American chemicals producers should be prepared to face a prolonged downturn which could extend to 2030 as newer capacities globally keep coming online, according to the director general at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). APLA ’24: Latin America poised for strategic growth amid global shifts – economist Latin America stands at a crucial turning point as global economic and political dynamics shift, with significant opportunities in energy, food security and technological advancement, an economist said on Tuesday. INSIGHT: Chems firms struggle to gain traction in Q3 The chemicals sectors’ third-quarter earnings period has underlined how little momentum has built up in the last 12 months, and how tepid expectations are for the closing months of the year. APLA ’24: Mexico nearshoring critical as US-Mexico economies intertwined – Evonik exec Mexico’s nearshoring trend will continue, even with the prospect of changes with the incoming US Trump administration as the US and Mexico economies are growing more and more interconnected, said the head of Evonik’s Mexico business. APLA ’24: Logistics more challenging to plan with increasing external threats – panel Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. Canada to see higher inflation on Trump tariffs – economists Fallout from the policies and tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump will inevitably affect Canada’s economy, in particular the manufacturing sector, according to Oxford Economics.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 22 November. NEWS APLA ’24: LatAm chems should prepare for rebalancing to take place only from 2030 onwards – APLALatin American chemicals producers should be prepared to face a prolonged downturn which could extend to 2030 as newer capacities globally keep coming online, according to the director general at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). APLA ’24: Mexico’s Cancun to host APLA 2025Next year’s annual summit of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) will take place in Cancun, Mexico, the organizers confirmed on Thursday. APLA ’24: Moeve to advance sustainable detergent materials – execMoeve Chemicals, previously known as Cepsa Chemicals, is pushing forward with sustainable innovations in the detergent industry, particularly through its linear alkyl benzene (LAB) business, according to an executive at the producer. APLA ’24: Anastacio sees Mexico as next major market to gain market share – CEOBrazil-based chemical distributor Quimica Anastacio is making a major push into Mexico, adding to its strong presence in Brazil and Argentina, its CEO said. APLA ’24: Women face persistent workplace and travel safety challenges – chems execsA discussion among industry leaders has highlighted ongoing challenges women face in workplace equality and business travel safety, with experts warning that salary parity remains decades away. APLA ’24: Latin America poised for strategic growth amid global shifts – economistLatin America stands at a crucial turning point as global economic and political dynamics shift, with significant opportunities in energy, food security and technological advancement, an economist said on Tuesday. APLA ’24: Vaca Muerta to double Argentina oil and gas production by 2030, allow for new chem projects – YPFGrowing production in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation should double oil and gas volumes in the country by 2030, enough for new petrochemicals projects, as rising production in Vaca Muerta more than offsets declines in conventional production, an executive at energy producer YPF said. APLA ’24: Brenntag aims to expand footprint in Brazil and Mexico via M&A, organic growth – execGermany-based chemical distributor Brenntag will focus on expanding its business in Brazil and Mexico in particular in Latin America through acquisitions and organic growth, said the head of its Latin American industrial chemicals business. APLA ’24: Colombia’s plastics grapple with new regulations, Chinese competition – Grupo AlmatiaThe Colombian plastics industry faces significant challenges as it navigates new environmental regulations and increasing competition from Chinese imports, the CEO at plastics distributor Grupo Almatia said. APLA ’24: Logistics more challenging to plan with increasing external threats – panel Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. APLA ’24: LatAm petchem woes remain, some help to come from nascent protectionist eraLatin American petrochemicals profitability, even the survival of some domestic producers, will hardly come from oversupplied markets facing poor demand but governments’ helping hand with protectionist measures. Unigel seeks US court recognition of Brazilian reorganization planUnigel filed a court proceeding that seeks US recognition of its reorganization plans, which had been approved in Brazil, the Brazilian styrenics and acrylics producer said on Friday. PRICINGAPLA ’24: LatAm PP international prices fall in Chile, Peru on competitive Asian offersInternational polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru due to competitive Asian offers. Prices remained unchanged this week in other Latin American (LatAm) countries. APLA ’24: Most LatAm PE domestic, international prices steady to lower on weak demand, cheaper importsMost domestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American countries this week on the back of weak demand and competitive offers from abroad. APLA ’24: Brazil’s caustic soda supply strains; PVC market sees increased competitionIn Brazil’s caustic soda market, a combination of planned and unplanned maintenance events in Q4 2024 has intensified supply constraints, exerting potential pressure on prices. APLA ’24: Latin America’s PE, PP demand expected weak to year-end, 2025Persistent poor demand for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) across Latin American economies is expected to stay for the remaining of the year and into 2025, with no improvement signs on the horizon.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which suggests companies need to refocus to avoid today’s overcapacity problems. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.