SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Last week’s launch of a new “stimulus bazooka” by the Chinese government might lead to a rally in chemicals and polymer pricing. But so what if prices go up over the next few weeks? The price rises will be of little long-term consequence unless we see big shifts in spreads and margins in the key polyethylene (PE) market. Between January 2014 and December 2021, northeast Asia integrated variable cost naphtha-based PE margins averaged $451/tonne; from January 2022 until the third week of September, they averaged just $2/tonne. In late 2019/early 2020, northeast Asia PE margins briefly turned negative as oversupply increased. But the full downturn was delayed by reduced feedstock availability and a surge in PE demand resulting from the pandemic. Then came the Evergrande Moment Average CFR China PE price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs are at just $280/tonne so far this year, the lowest since our price assessments began in 1993. We have seen three consecutive years of new record-low spreads. It is of course no coincidence that the three years have followed the Evergrande Moment. HDPE spreads would have to rebound by 129%, LDPE spreads by 48% and LLDPE spreads by 88% to see a return to the old market conditions. Average PE spreads would thus have to rise by 80%. Follow the ICIS PE spread and margin data every week to discover whether a recovery is really happening in China. My view, as you know, is that China’s economy faces deep long-term challenges resulting from the end of the real-estate bubble and an ageing population. The extent to which it can maintain its dominant role in global exports is also in question because of a much more difficult geopolitical environment. I don’t believe that any amount of likely economic stimulus in China (there are political and economic limitations on stimulus) can fully address these challenges. It is what it is. We need to get used to a Chinese chemicals market where demand growth for some products might even go negative. You may disagree. But what we can and should agree on is the story that’s been consistently told by PE spreads and margins since January 2022. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 27 September. Asia BD market sentiment to be driven by domestic China fluctuations By Ai Teng Lim 24-Sep-24 13:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian spot prices for butadiene (BD) imports made sizeable gains this month, alongside a bullish domestic yuan-denominated market in China. China petrochemical futures rally on fresh economic measures By Fanny Zhang 24-Sep-24 16:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets surged on Tuesday following announcement of fresh measures to rev up activity in the world’s second-biggest economy. India to be among global oil demand growth drivers in 2023-2050 – OPEC By Nurluqman Suratman 25-Sep-24 13:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India is expected be a major driver of global long-term oil demand growth through to 2050, alongside the Middle East and Africa, OPEC said in a report. Market diversification key to weather challenges in Asia recycling By Arianne Perez 23-Sep-24 12:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian producers of recycled polyolefins have been struggling to stay afloat since 2023 amid a general slump in trade of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs). Slow recovery in Asia petrochemical markets; Q4 sentiment bearish By Jonathan Yee 25-Sep-24 14:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Macroeconomic challenges in China have kept overall sentiment bearish in Asia’s petrochemical markets, but there was a late pick-up in demand for some products just days before a week-long holiday in the country in October. Intra-Asia VAM spot trades may contract amid downstream woes By Hwee Hwee Tan 26-Sep-24 10:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s import demand for vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is being dampened by slower demand and macroeconomic woes persisting into the fourth quarter of 2024. INSIGHT: China 2024 crude imports, throughput to fall on economic headwinds By Patricia Tao 27-Sep-24 14:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to record lower crude oil imports and refinery throughput this year on weaker-than-expected distillates demand during the typical peak consumption season amid economic headwinds and increased market penetration of alternative fuels. PODCAST: Asia fatty alcohol market uptrend may prompt switch to LAB By Damini Dabholkar 24-Sep-24 14:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Prices of Asia’s fatty alcohol midcuts may be nearing a ceiling as demand from Europe is expected to wane after October, given the looming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which starts on 30 December.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nearly a quarter of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut in following Hurricane Helene, a government agency said on Friday. The following table shows the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Total % of US Gulf Oil, bbl/day 427,000 24.39% Gas, million cubic feet/day 343 18.46% Source: BSEE Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 9 2.43% Rigs evacuated 0 0% Source: BSEE Helene has weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall on Thursday night as a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the northwestern coast of Florida. Since making landfall, the storm has knocked out power to millions, caused floods and produced record storm surges. It set new all-time tide gauge records in the Tampa Bay area, a hub for the fertilizer industry, according to the meteorological firm AccuWeather. Overall damage could be in the tens of billions of dollars, AccuWeather said. Such widespread power outages and floods will lower demand for plastics and chemicals. Afterwards, repairs should boost demand for paints, coatings and other plastics and chemicals used in construction.

LONDON (ICIS)–Ahead of the approaching European Petrochemical Conference (EPCA) in Berlin 7-10 October, ICIS editors discuss market conditions in a variety of solvent markets. Ahead of the approaching European Petrochemical Conference (EPCA) in Berlin 7-10 October, ICIS editors discuss market conditions in a variety of solvent markets. Market updates on methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK), isopropanol (IPA), phenol, acetone, toluene, mixed xylenes, glycol ethers and propylene glycol ethers, butyl acetate and ethyl acetate Trade flows and impact of freight rate movements Overcapacity versus low demand levels Upcoming maintenance programs In this episode, Jane Massingham talks to editors Nick Cleeve, Jane Gibson, Zubair Adam, Cameron Birch and Marion Boakye.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–More than 4 million outages were reported in the southeastern US on Friday after Hurricane Helene made landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm in northwestern Florida. The southeastern US does not have a lot of chemical production. But such widespread power outages, in addition to disruptions caused by flooding, will lower demand for plastics and chemicals more broadly. The power outages are concentrated in the US states of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, according to the website poweroutage.us. Among the few chemical plants near Helene’s landfall site are a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery that Kraton owns in Panama City, Florida. Tall oil is a feedstock fatty acids, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Kraton has not returned requests for comment in regard to its preparations for Helene. Since Helene made landfall, it has weakened into a tropical storm, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 miles/hour (75 km/hour), according to the National Hurricane Center. The following map shows its projected path. Source: National Hurricane Center PORT CLOSURESInbound and outbound traffic at Port Tampa Bay ceased ahead of the storm, and the port’s shipping channels were closed. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Other port closures include Panama City, St Joe, St Petersburg, Manatee and Key West on Florida’s west coast, as well as Fernandina, Jacksonville and Canaveral on Florida’s east coast. ENERGY DISRUPTIONS The following table shows the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Total % of US Gulf Oil, bbl/day 441,923 25.25% Gas, million cubic feet/day 363.39 19.81% Source: BSEE Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 27 7.28% Rigs evacuated 1 20% Source: BSEE The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 14% of US production of crude oil and 5% of total dry gas production, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). RAIL DISRUPTIONS Railroad company CSX planned to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays. RECONSTRUCTION AND CHEM DEMANDHurricane Helene’s current path could put $5.64 billion worth of housing at risk to storm surge flooding, an insurance data company said on Wednesday. Nearly 25,000 residential properties in the Tallahassee and Homosassa Springs metropolitan areas are at risk, said CoreLogic. “Helene has the potential to become a once-in-a-generation storm,” said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist for the meteorology firm AccuWeather. It estimates that most of Florida and much of the southeastern US will be exposed to winds reaching 40-60 miles/hour. AccuWeather expects that most of Florida and all of the states of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina are at risk for tornados. For hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. Thumbnail shows Helene before it made landfall. Image by National Hurricane Center.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: October price talks underway, but some different views emerging Flake and food-grade pellet demand still flat ahead of October Market divided over views for Q4 and Q1 demand

LONDON (ICIS)–The economic outlook in the EU and eurozone was stable in September, as higher construction and consumer confidence was offset by a decrease in industry. The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was flat in the EU at 96.7 points and fell by 0.3 points in the eurozone to 96.2, according to official data on Friday. “The steadiness of the ESI in the EU resulted from improved confidence in construction and among consumers, offset by a decrease in industry confidence. Confidence in services and retail trade remained broadly stable,” the Commission said in a statement. For the largest EU economies, the ESI worsened in France (-1.4) and Germany (-1.2), while it improved in Poland (+2.0), Spain (+1.9), Italy (+1.2) and the Netherlands (+0.5). Employment prospects for September were also broadly unchanged, with the Commission’s Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) up 0.3 points to 100.0 in the EU and higher by 0.1 points to 99.5 in the eurozone.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Helene made landfall Thursday night as a Category 4 storm in the northwestern part of the US state of Florida. The storm made landfall in the Big Bend region just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, according to the National Hurricane Center at 23:20 Eastern time (3:20 GMT Friday). Maximum sustained winds were around 140 miles/hour. Helene was moving north-northeast, with a hurricane warning in effect for Anclote River to Mexico Beach. Big Bend is a sparsely populated region of Florida. However, a storm surge warning includes Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Nearly 1 million customers in Florida were without power, according to tracker PowerOutage.us. PORT CLOSURESInbound and outbound traffic to Port Tampa Bay ceased ahead of the storm, and the port’s shipping channels were closed. Port Tampa Bay is an energy products gateway for oil and gas, jet fuel and petroleum products, as well as fertilizers. It is also a gateway for construction and building materials. Other port closures include Panama City, St Joe, St Petersburg, Manatee and Key West on Florida’s west coast, as well as Fernandina, Jacksonville and Canaveral on Florida’s east coast. RAIL DISRUPTIONS Railroad company CSX planned to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays. RECONSTRUCTION AND CHEM DEMANDHurricane Helene’s current path could put $5.64 billion worth of housing at risk to storm surge flooding, insurance data company CoreLogic said on Wednesday. Reconstruction following hurricanes can increase demand for many chemicals and polymers. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian BCI Minerals announced it has commenced operations at its Mardie salt and potash project after receiving all necessary Western Australian and Commonwealth government environmental approvals. It has begun filling evaporation ponds 1, 2, and 3 with BCI Minerals set to update and resubmit its groundwater monitoring and management plan (GMMP) for further approval before filling evaporations ponds 4 through 9. Construction of the salt-first component of the project is over halfway completed with it expected the company will achieve first salt on ship in Q2 2027. Located 80km south of Karratha, in the Pilbara region, Mardie is anticipated to produce 5.35 million tonnes/year of high-quality industrial salt for export and 140,000 tonnes/year of sulphate of potash (SOP). It has an operating life expected to exceed 60 years. “Australia hasn’t developed a salt project of this significance in 25 years, and the Mardie Project will be Australia’s largest solar salt project and the third largest globally,” said David Boshoff, BCI Minerals managing director. “With the projected growth in demand for high grade industrial salt in our target Asian markets, BCI Minerals is strongly positioned to supply global markets with Mardie salt for generations.”