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Speciality Chemicals19-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Coast Guard (USCG)
closed the Houston Ship Channel Friday
afternoon after a tow vessel sunk, according to
a notice from Moran Shipping.
It is unclear how long the channel will be
closed as emergency responders are currently
conducting search and rescue efforts, said JJ
Plunkett of the Houston Pilots.
The closure is at Light 122, near where the
Lynchburg Ferry offers passage from La Porte to
Baytown.
Moran Shipping said efforts are underway to
minimize pollution from fuel leakage and
mitigate impact on channel traffic and that
salvage operations could take at least 48
hours.
The following image from VesselFinder.com shows
many tankers (orange) and cargo vessels
(yellow) in the channel.
Source: VesselFinder.com
Light 122 is on the right side of the image
near the entrance to the channel.
Speciality Chemicals19-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global shipping container rates
edged slightly higher this week as they
continue to moderate after more than doubling
from early-May, and rates from Shanghai to the
US West Coast fell, according to supply chain
advisors Drewry.
Drewry’s composite World Container Index (WCI)
rose by just 1% and is up by just 1.2% over the
past two week, as shown in the following chart.
Average rates from China to the US East Coast
have continued to rise and are nearing
$10,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), as shown
in the following chart.
Drewry expects ex-China rates to hold steady
next week and remain high throughout the peak
season.
Rates from online freight shipping marketplace
and platform provider Freightos showed similar
rates of increase.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, in
noting the slower rate of increase also pointed
to signs that prices may have already peaked.
“Daily rates so far this week are ticking lower
and major carriers have not announced surcharge
increases for later this month or August,”
Levine said.
Levine said peak season likely started early
this year as retailers ordered early to beat
possible labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast
ports and as consumers continued to spend on
goods.
Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at
ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta,
said she is seeing some carriers already
lowering spot rates.
“This suggests a growing level of available
capacity in the market and shippers can once
again start to play carriers off against each
other – instead of feeling they need to pay
whatever price they are offered to secure
space. As the balance of negotiating power
starts to swing back towards shippers, we
should see spot rates start to come back down,”
Stausboll said.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
VOLUMES SHIFT TO WEST
COAST
The Port of Los Angeles saw a 10% increase from
the previous month and a slight increase year
on year in volumes, Gene Seroka, executive
director of the Port of Los Angeles said.
Some retailers are rushing to import volumes
ahead of the US presidential election in
November as Republican nominee Donald Trump has
proposed hiking tariffs, especially on goods
from China.
But a persistently strong economy is also
supporting the rise in imports.
“The US economy continues to be the primary
driver of our cargo volume and I expect to see
that continue in the months ahead,” Seroka
said.
Many importers shifted their deliveries to the
US East Coast in 2022 when congestion at West
Coast ports surged amid strong consumer demand
coming out of the pandemic.
The shift in volumes from the East Coast has
not led to any congestions at the West Coast
ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according
to the Marine Exchange of Southern California
(MESC).
“Vessels and cargo arriving, departing, and
shifting around the ports of LA and LB and
continue to move normally with no labor delays
and ample labor,” MESC executive director Kip
Louttit said.
Louttit also said the forecast for arriving
container ships over the next two weeks is
trending higher.
LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES
Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf
were stable to softer this week, with decreases
seen on the USG-Asia and USG-Brazil trade
lanes.
From the USG to Asia, there has still been
interest in large cargoes, but volumes overall
have been slowing down.
The absence of market participants has caused
freight rates to stumble some, with more
downward pressure on smaller parcels due to the
small pockets of space readily available.
From the USG to Brazil, the list of ships open
in the USG continues to grow, with space still
available which could lead to continued
downward pressure and even lower rates.
Activity typically picks up during summer
months, but this is not currently being seen.
PANAMA CANAL
The Panama Canal will limit transits from
3-4 August because of planned maintenance.
The east lane of the Miraflores locks will be
out of service for concrete maintenance on the
east approach wall, the Panama Canal Authority
(PCA) said.
The PCA began limiting transits in July 2023
because of low water levels in Gatun Lake
caused by an extended drought.
Restrictions have gradually eased over the past
few months and are approaching the average
daily transits of 36-38/day seen prior to
impacts from the drought.
The improved conditions at the canal are likely
to improve transit times for vessels traveling
between the US Gulf and Asia, as well as
between Europe and west coast Latin America
countries.
This should benefit chemical markets that move
product between regions.
Wait times for non-booked southbound vessels
ready for transit have been relatively steady
at less than two days, according to the
PCA vessel tracker.
Wait times were less than a day for northbound
vessels and less than two days for southbound
traffic.
Focus article by Adam Yanelli
With additional reporting by Kevin
Callahan
Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on
chemicals and energy topic
page.
Potassium Chloride (MOP)19-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Spanish fertilizer firm
Highfield Resources has entered a non-binding
letter of intent for cooperation with Yankuang
Energy Group and other investors which would
give the company funding for its Muga Potash
project and acquisition of a greenfield
development in Saskatchewan, Canada.
Yankuang Energy Group would become the largest
shareholder under the deal, which would see the
company and other investors, collectively
referred to as the Cornerstone Placement.
provide $220 million in funding for Muga phase
one, which Highfield confirms is construction
ready.
The producer said Yankuang Energy intends to
provide up to $90 million to support the
Cornerstone Placement with the other strategic
investors providing the remaining balance in
exchange Highfield will issue the investors new
ordinary shares.
Beyond allowing it to advance the Spanish
project, this agreement would also pave the way
company officials said for the transformation
of Highfield into a globally diversified potash
company as they would receive the Southey
Potash project in Saskatchewan.
This would be completed by the acquisition of
the shares in Yancoal Canada, a subsidiary of
Yankuang Energy, who currently has this
development, which is described as a greenfield
potash mine project.
Southey is located approximately 60km north of
Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada and is being
designed as a solution mining operation with
environmental approval in place and a
feasibility study completed.
Highfield added that there is a high confidence
reserve estimate at the project with
significant resource potential and that it is
forecasted to have a mine life of more than 65
years.
The planned annual production is estimated at
2.8 million tonnes/year of muriate of potash
(MOP).
The producer said the combination of Southey
and Muga is expected to turn Highfield into a
more significant potash market participant as
it could eventually have a total production
capacity potential of 3.8 million tonnes/year
of MOP.
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Ethylene19-Jul-2024
NEW YORK (ICIS)–With solid progress on
disinflation and the labor market easing,
financial markets are sharpening their focus on
the coming interest rate cut cycle, with the
first move expected in September. Ten-year
Treasury yields are collapsing and economically
sensitive stocks surging, as consensus moves to
as much as three cuts of 25 basis points by the
Federal Reserve in 2024 and further easing next
year.
All this comes as the consumer – the key driver
of the US economy – is showing signs of
fatigue. With COVID-era savings largely tapped
out and the labor market easing, consumer
spending is poised to slow going forward,
bringing down overall economic growth as well
as inflation.
The latest US retail sales report confirmed the
trend of a continuing slowdown in consumer
spending, with June flat versus May.
Year-on-year, retail sales were up just 2.3% –
lower than the current inflationary
trend. This also implies a drop in
volumes.
There was notable year-on-year strength in
ecommerce (+8.9%), bars and restaurants (+4.4%)
and apparel (+4.3%). Weakness was led by
furniture and home furnishings (-4.0%);
sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments and
books (-3.4%) and motor vehicles and parts
(-2.2%).
We are not talking about a collapse in consumer
spending, but an easing is clearly in effect,
naturally in line with a softening labor
market. The unemployment rate has continued to
slowly tick higher and is now at 4.1% versus a
low of 3.4% in January. And the ratio of job
openings versus unemployed now stands at 1.2 –
close to pre-pandemic levels.
The number of high-profile US retail earnings
disappointments and stock price collapses
continues to pile up. These include Helen of
Troy, a producer of branded consumer home,
outdoor, beauty and wellness products,
sportswear giant Nike, coffee and beverage
retailer Starbucks and restaurant group
McDonald’s – all in the consumer discretionary
camp.
INFLATION RATE CONTINUES TO
FALLThis slowdown in consumer
spending is showing up in inflation numbers as
well, with the June core Consumer Price Index
(CPI) – excluding food and energy – actually
falling 0.1% from May. From a year ago, it was
up 3.3% in June, showing further progress from
May’s 3.4% print.
Services inflation has been sticky, but relief
may be on its way. The ISM® US Services
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI®) for June
showed a huge 5.0-point decline from May to
48.8 – in contraction territory (under 50) for
the second month in three.
On the US manufacturing front, the
recovery is sputtering as the ISM US
Manufacturing PMI fell further in June to 48.5
– in contraction for the third consecutive
month after eking out an expansion in March for
the first time in 17 months. This puts the
widely expected H2 recovery in chemicals
volumes in jeopardy.
US housing starts rose 3.0% in June versus May
to an annualized pace of 1.35 million, but the
gains were in the multifamily sector as
single-family starts fell for the fourth
consecutive month – by 2.2% in June. Total June
starts were down 3.1% year on year. ICIS
projects US housing starts of 1.43 million for
2024, rising to 1.49 million in 2025.
US light vehicle sales ended Q2 on a sour note,
with June sales falling 4.0% from May to a
15.3-million-unit pace, which was also off 4.8%
from a year ago. For 2024, ICIS projects light
vehicle sales improving to 15.8 million units
versus 15.5 units in 2023 and rising further to
16.3 million units in 2025.
ICIS forecasts US GDP growth slowing to 2.3% in
2024 from 2.5% in 2023, with the quarterly rate
by Q4 at just 1.6%. For all of 2025, ICIS sees
GDP growth slowing to 1.8%.
While consumer spending is easing and high
interest rates continue to weigh on
manufacturing and key chemical end markets of
housing and automotive, coming rate cuts by the
Fed should boost sentiment and ultimately
demand, particularly in cyclical sectors.
Chemical stock prices are already catching a
bid in anticipation.
Even as the interest rate picture clears up,
uncertainty abounds on the geopolitical and
political fronts, with the upcoming US election
in November in focus. For the chemical and
manufacturing sectors, the spotlight on tariffs
and their implications will only intensify.
Gas19-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–IT issues that impacted energy
trading systems on Friday morning were
gradually being resolved, with market
participants regaining access to critical
applications.
A flawed update of cybersecurity software
CrowdStrike hit Windows operating systems, with
IT outages affecting companies across many
sectors.
This included energy trading platform Trayport
and several brokers, with trading operations
impacted.
Trayport said shortly after midday London time
it had made “significant progress in
implementing workarounds for the ongoing
CrowdStrike-related outage”.
It said its services were being restored,
including risk-based trading, and that the
group was working to bring the remaining
services back online as quickly as possible.
A German power trader told ICIS shortly after
midday London time that “all was back to
normal” and was able to access broker screens.
“It has been very bad this morning. Now
everything is working smoothly, but all
connections were down for a while,” a gas
trader added.
A broker had told ICIS earlier in the morning
that “hardly anything is working here, we are
just waiting for systems to come back.”
LIQUIDITY
Most traders contacted by ICIS reported issues
affecting their usual trading activities as
well as data used for analyzing market
fundamentals.
Some European gas and power traders said broker
screens were not available and the issue was
likely to affect liquidity throughout Friday’s
trading session.
Another added that they expected the number of
transactions to go through at the end of the
day to be down by about half.
“I can chat and agree on deals, but I cannot
put it in my system, meaning the P&L is not
updated,” said one EU gas trader in the
morning.
“There’s a lot of counterparties offline, and
those that are online are reluctant to show
prices this morning,” said an LNG trader.
Others reported fewer issues and said they
could operate as usual.
Intraday price movements highlighted that the
global IT disruptions impacting energy trading
activities on Friday did not have any
significant impact on European gas and power
prices, as highlighted by regional market
commentaries published by ICIS.
ENERGY EXCHANGES
Commenting on the status of ICE’s derivatives
markets, an ICE spokesperson told ICIS: “We are
aware of the issue and markets are fully
operational. We are in close dialogue with our
customers on whether and how they’re impacted”.
Earlier in the session, the European Energy
Exchange (EEX) reported in a message to trading
participants that customers using Trayport
services were potentially facing technical
problems.
“Customers may observe problems to login or to
trade via Trayport due to infrastructure issues
with a third-party service provider,” EEX said.
EEX also offered its assistance to customers
for removing orders or trading on behalf.
European power exchange EPEX SPOT, which is
part of EEX, told ICIS that issues with the
Spanish OMIE short-term trading platform, which
caused a partial decoupling of markets on
Friday morning, were not related to the global
IT issues. It confirmed that all other European
day-ahead power auctions were running to plan
and order book closures were happening on time.
Trading across the Nord Pool exchange was not
impacted, a spokesman confirmed, and added that
it was monitoring the situation closely.
Spanish gas exchange MIBGAS also told ICIS it
has not been affected by the outage.
The electronic capacity trading platform RBP,
owned by the Hungarian gas transmission system
operator FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission, said it
had not been impacted.
IMPACT ON ENERGY COMPANIES
Several energy companies contacted by ICIS did
not report issues related to the global IT
incident and were monitoring the situation.
Spanish gas system operator Enagas told ICIS it
“is not vulnerable because it does not have the
impacted software installed, but an analysis is
being carried out to foresee any eventual
impact”.
“As far as we’re aware, everything has been
fine here relating to the outages and we are
not aware of any issues in the LNG shipping
market making an impact,” a UK-based shipbroker
told ICIS.
Other LNG shipping sources have also so far
said they have noted no impact on terminals or
shipping operations.
Belgian gas system operator and LNG terminals
operator Fluxys told ICIS “there have been some
very minor issues without any real effect on
flows”. The issues related to the “impact on
the systems of our [external] partners.”,
Fluxys’ subsidiaries include Dunkerque LNG and
Zeebrugge LNG.
ICIS contacted other major European LNG
operators and global energy companies but
received no replies by the time of publishing.
Gas19-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–IT issues that impacted energy
trading systems on Friday morning were
gradually being resolved, with market
participants regaining access to critical
applications.
A flawed update of cybersecurity software
CrowdStrike hit Windows operating systems, with
IT outages affecting companies across many
sectors.
This included energy trading platform Trayport
and several brokers, with trading operations
impacted.
Trayport said shortly after midday London time
it had made “significant progress in
implementing workarounds for the ongoing
CrowdStrike-related outage”.
It said its services were being restored,
including risk-based trading, and that the
group was working to bring the remaining
services back online as quickly as possible.
A German power trader told ICIS shortly after
midday London time that “all was back to
normal” and was able to access broker screens.
“It has been very bad this morning. Now
everything is working smoothly, but all
connections were down for a while,” a gas
trader added.
A broker had told ICIS earlier in the morning
that “hardly anything is working here, we are
just waiting for systems to come back.”
LIQUIDITY
Most traders contacted by ICIS reported issues
affecting their usual trading activities as
well as data used for analyzing market
fundamentals.
Some European gas and power traders said broker
screens were not available and the issue was
likely to affect liquidity throughout Friday’s
trading session.
Another added that they expected the number of
transactions to go through at the end of the
day to be down by about half.
“I can chat and agree on deals, but I cannot
put it in my system, meaning the P&L is not
updated,” said one EU gas trader in the
morning.
“There’s a lot of counterparties offline, and
those that are online are reluctant to show
prices this morning,” said an LNG trader.
Others reported fewer issues and said they
could operate as usual.
ENERGY EXCHANGES
Commenting on the status of ICE’s derivatives
markets, an ICE spokesperson told ICIS: “We are
aware of the issue and markets are fully
operational. We are in close dialogue with our
customers on whether and how they’re impacted”.
Earlier in the session, the European Energy
Exchange (EEX) reported in a message to trading
participants that customers using Trayport
services were potentially facing technical
problems.
“Customers may observe problems to login or to
trade via Trayport due to infrastructure issues
with a third-party service provider,” EEX said.
EEX also offered its assistance to customers
for removing orders or trading on behalf.
European power exchange EPEX SPOT, which is
part of EEX, told ICIS that issues with the
Spanish OMIE short-term trading platform, which
caused a partial decoupling of markets on
Friday morning, were not related to the global
IT issues. It confirmed that all other European
day-ahead power auctions were running to plan
and order book closures were happening on time.
Trading across the Nord Pool exchange was not
impacted, a spokesman confirmed, and added that
it was monitoring the situation closely.
Spanish gas exchange MIBGAS also told ICIS it
has not been affected by the outage.
The electronic capacity trading platform RBP,
owned by the Hungarian gas transmission system
operator FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission, said it
had not been impacted.
IMPACT ON ENERGY COMPANIES
Several energy companies contacted by ICIS did
not report issues related to the global IT
incident and were monitoring the situation.
Spanish gas system operator Enagas told ICIS it
“is not vulnerable because it does not have the
impacted software installed, but an analysis is
being carried out to foresee any eventual
impact”.
“As far as we’re aware, everything has been
fine here relating to the outages and we are
not aware of any issues in the LNG shipping
market making an impact,” a UK-based shipbroker
told ICIS.
Other LNG shipping sources have also so far
said they have noted no impact on terminals or
shipping operations.
Belgian gas system operator and LNG terminals
operator Fluxys told ICIS “there have been some
very minor issues without any real effect on
flows”. The issues related to the “impact on
the systems of our [external] partners.”,
Fluxys’ subsidiaries include Dunkerque LNG and
Zeebrugge LNG.
ICIS contacted other major European LNG
operators and global energy companies but
received no replies by the time of publishing.
Gas19-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Gas In Focus editor Katya
Zapletnyuk and deputy editor Marta Del Buono
discuss the surge of populist movements in
recent EU and member state elections and its
impact on energy markets.
Europe has been hurt by the energy crisis and
high energy costs are driving businesses to
other parts of the world. Consumers are
demanding a focus shift from climate targets to
competitiveness and security.
Click
here to watch
Gas19-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Companies including financial
services were hit by a global IT outage on
Friday, with disruptions partly affecting
energy trading.
The chemicals sector currently appears
unaffected though Poland’s largest container
terminal, the Baltic Hub in Gdansk, was
reportedly having some issues.
Trayport, a key data platfrom for European
wholesale energy markets, issued a statement
warning the outage was affecting some of its
key services.
“We are currently facing infrastructure issues
due to a global outage with a third-party
service provider” Trayport said in a statement.
Trayport added it was currently implementing
workarounds, and customers may begin to see
some of Trayport services become available.
“We continue to work closely with the vendor to
resolve the situation as soon as possible,” it
added.
ICIS continued to receive trade information on
European gas and power markets spread across
multiple trading venues.
However, traders contacted by ICIS reported
issues:
“Servers are not accessible for the moment. We
can trade but not book deals,” one trader said.
A power trading source has said systems were
unaffected in some countries.
A gas trader in northern Europe said that some
brokers were impacted, but that major exchange
platforms were functioning as usual. Some
trading companies are also faced internal IT
issues.
European power exchange EPEX SPOT reported a
partial decoupling on the OMIE area, which
includes Spanish and Portuguese power markets,
for the IDA3 auctions, although it did not
indicate whether it was related to the global
IT outage. But the group reported a normal
market status for most other markets and order
book closures were also reported as being on
time.
Additional reporting by Clare
Pennington
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate19-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
Bullish outlook for eastern Europe bales
and flake
Upwards pressure appearing when market
usually quietens down for summer
Wider market expects bale supply to improve
during August
Outlook from September onwards still
uncertain
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