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Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate23-May-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
High bale costs across Europe still major
concern for recyclers
Margins are squeezed as flake, pellet price
talks continue
Cost-conscious buyers battle with high
R-PET costs compared to PET
Cheaper R-PET imports also still offered
into Europe
Polyethylene Terephthalate23-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Canadian International
Trade Tribunal (CITT) has determined there is
“a reasonable indication” that the dumping and
subsidizing of polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
originating in or exported from China and
Pakistan has caused injury to Canadian
producers.
The resolution published this week follows on
from the inquiry opened in
March after producer Compagnie Alpek
Polyester Canada, a subsidiary of Mexico’s
Alpek, filed a complaint with the Canada Border
Services Agency (CBSA).
“The CBSA will continue its investigations and,
by 17 June, will issue preliminary
determinations,” said the Tribunal this week.
If successful, the investigation could conclude
advising to impose antidumping duties (ADDs)
against PET imports from China and Pakistan,
meaning PET imports from both jurisdictions
would face higher-than-average import taxes to
enter Canada.
The CITT is an independent quasi-judicial body
that reports to Parliament through the Minister
of Finance, and it hears cases on dumped and
subsidized imports, safeguard complaints,
complaints about federal government
procurement, and appeals of customs and excise
tax rulings.
When requested by the federal government, the
Tribunal also provides advice on other
economic, trade and tariff matters.
The Canadian market of imports for PET resin
was estimated at around $193 million in 2023,
and at $185 million in 2024, according to
government data.
In 2024, imports from China made up 46% of
total imports into Canada, while shipments from
Pakistan made up 28% of imports.
The two countries were second and third
suppliers of PET to Canada, after the US.
PET resins can be broadly classified into
bottle, fiber or film grade, named according to
the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin
is the most commonly traded form of PET resin
and it is used in bottle and container
packaging through blow molding and
thermoforming.
Fiber grade resin goes into making polyester
fiber, while film grade resin is used in
electrical and flexible packaging applications.
PET can be compounded with glass fiber for the
production of engineering plastics.
DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics
Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC)
are PET producers in the US.
Additional reporting by Melissa
Wheeler
Crude Oil23-May-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–US President Donald Trump has
warned of plans to impose a 50% tariff on
imports from the EU starting on 1 June.
In a post on the Truth Social platform, which
is owned by Trump, on Friday, the US President
said negotiations with the EU “were going
nowhere” and said the bloc “has been very
difficult to deal with”.
“Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes,
ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary
Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair
and unjustified lawsuits against Americans
Companies, and more, have led to a Trade
Deficit with the US of more than $250,000,000 a
year, a number which is totally unacceptable,”
the post on social media read.
Trump went on to stipulate that no tariff would
be applied if the product was built or
manufactured in the US, but did not clarify how
this would pertain to raw materials higher up
the value chain.
As a net importer, the repercussions for the
European chemicals industry may be cushioned
from direct tariffs, although this could have
more of an impact for certain products like
benzene or paraxylene (PX).
The EU has declined to respond to the latest
announcement. On 9 May, the EU launched a
public consultation to determine which US
products should be subject to levies, including
many
chemicals and plastics.
The consultation is scheduled to remain open
until 10 June, as the EU Commission also
consults on restricting certain EU steel scrap
and chemical products worth €4.4bn to the US.
A 50% duty is an escalation from the previous
20% tariff announced by President Trump on 2
April, when levies of varying degrees were
applied to most international trading partners,
including a 10% baseline rate for the majority
of countries.
Tensions between the US and EU eased after a
90-day pause was agreed in early April to allow
time for discussions to pave the way for a deal
palatable to both parties.
Since the initial announcement, the US secured
a deal
with the UK, with a 10% tariff for auto
parts (down from 27.5%), keeping the previously
announced baseline 10% rate in place. In
exchange, the US will have increased access to
UK chemicals, ethanol, and beef markets.
The US also agreed a 90-day pause with
China on 12 May, allowing Chinese imports
to the US to be subject to a 30% tax instead of
the 145% tariff, with US goods to China held at
a 10% rate instead of 125%.
thumbnail photo source: Shutterstock

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Gas23-May-2025
UK energy price cap for July-September set
at £1,720 for an average household
This has risen £152 year on year, but is
£129 lower than the Q2 cap
Forward prices for Q4 ‘25 at premium to Q3
‘25 anticipating higher winter demand
By Anna Coulson and Ethan Tillcock
LONDON (ICIS) –The UK energy price cap for
July-September will be higher than the third
quarter of 2024, energy regulator Ofgem said on
23 May, but will fall compared to the price cap
in the second quarter of 2025.
Ofgem stated that the recent fall in wholesale
prices is the main driver of the overall price
cap reduction, accounting for around 90% of the
fall, with the remainder primarily due to
changes to operating cost allowances suppliers
can recover.
If forward prices for delivery in the fourth
quarter of 2025 remain at current levels, the
wholesale component of the cap for the period
October-December is expected to be higher than
the third quarter.
RISING PRICES
ICIS assessed the British NBP gas Q3 ‘25
contract at an average of 94.400p/th from 18
February to 16 May, which was the period used
by Ofgem to calculate wholesale energy costs
for the upcoming cap.
This is 35% higher than the Q3 ’24 contract
average over equivalent dates in the previous
year.
Several factors are likely to have contributed
to elevated wholesale gas prices.
The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine cut
around 15.5bcm/year of remaining supply to
Europe at the start of the 2025.
European gas reserves finished the winter
withdrawal season down significantly year on
year, increasing forecast summer injection
demand annually.
This supported British hub prices as higher
prices on the continent drive exports via the
BBL and Interconnector pipelines.
Investment funds amassed large net long
positions in European gas futures amid
speculation of a tight summer injection market.
Hub prices declined towards the end of the
period, trading lower on US tariffs driving
global demand reduction forecasts, and the EU
easing storage regulations, reducing expected
summer injection demand.
Gas is a key price driver for the UK power
market due to its role in power generation,
with power prices tracking the upward trend in
NBP prices.
ICIS assessed the UK power baseload Q3 ‘25
contract at an average £80.64/MWh between 18
February and 16 May, 25% higher than the Q3 ‘24
over equivalent dates.
The Q3 ’25 UK power contract is at a premium to
the European equivalents, indicating that the
UK is likely to import power through the
front quarter.
Q4 CAP OUTLOOK
On 22 May, ICIS assessed the NBP Q4 ‘25
contract at 94.525p/th, 7.950p/th above the Q3
‘25 contract.
On the same day, the UK power baseload Q4 ‘25
contract was £87.00/MWh, £6.85/MWh above the
corresponding Q3 ’25 contract.
European gas
markets continue to exhibit sensitivity to
multiple regulatory and geopolitical drivers.
US tariffs are likely bearish for global demand
due to stifling economic growth; however,
de-escalation may continue in the coming
months.
Reduced gas storage targets at the EU level may
push increased risk across the region from the
injection season into Winter ’25 delivery.
Entering the fourth quarter, cold weather and
low wind generation present risks as this would
increase heating and gas-for-power demand, with
several periods of dunkelflaute in the previous
winter causing demand surges.
French nuclear availability is another key
driver for UK power prices through the fourth
quarter.
ICIS assessed the UK power baseload Q4 ’25
contract at €102.41/MWh on 22 May, €25.61/MWh
above the French contract, indicating that the
UK is likely to import power from France.
Data from EDF on 22 May shows that French
nuclear availability is scheduled to average
57.1GW from 1 October to 31 December, 15.1GW
above the 2020-24 average amid the recent
commissioning of the 1.6GW Flamanville 3 plant.
However, downward revisions in French nuclear
availability through the fourth quarter of 2025
would be a bullish driver for French and UK
power prices
BACKGROUND
Introduced in January 2019, the price cap sets
the maximum price that energy suppliers can
charge end-users for each unit of energy.
.
Naphtha23-May-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia-based
LOTTE Chemical Titan (LCT) has signed a
three-year naphtha sales contract with Saudi
Aramco, according to the company in a bourse
statement.
The naphtha, estimated at between
300,000-400,000 tonnes/year, will be supplied
by Aramco’s unit in Singapore, said LCT on
Friday.
“Aramco is a major feedstock supplier of
naphtha … and has been our long-term supplier,”
the company said.
The contract will run from July 2025 to June
2028, while the pricing will be based on the
market price.
LCT operates 12 plants across two sites in
Malaysia and holds a 40% share in LOTTE
Chemical USA Corp. It has three polyethylene
plants in Indonesia through PT LOTTE Chemical
Titan Nusantara.
LCT is a subsidiary of South Korean major LOTTE
Chemical Corp under the LOTTE Group.
Ammonia23-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s state-owned energy
major Petrobras and chemicals producer Unigel
have finally signed an agreement to end
contractual disputes related to the two
fertilizers plants in the country’s north which
had been leased to Unigel.
Late on 22 May, the companies said the two
fertilizers plants in the states of Bahia and
Sergipe (northeast) would thus return to
Petrobras’ portfolio.
The agreement must still be ratified by
Brazil’s Arbitral Tribunal.
“The agreement provides for the reinstatement
of Petrobras’ possession of the fertilizer
plants (FAFENs) in Bahia and Sergipe, and the
resumption of operations by Petrobras through a
bidding process for the contracting of
operation and maintenance services, in
compliance with applicable governance practices
and internal procedures,” said Petrobras.
“Petrobras aims to resume activities in the
fertilizer segment to create value through the
production and commercialization of
nitrogen-based products, while aligning with
the oil and natural gas production chain and
the energy transition.”
Meanwhile, Unigel said the agreement
represented the “definitive resolution of the
contractual disputes” and litigation existing
between the companies due to disagreements
about the lease for the two plants.
The deal represents the withdrawal of the
company from the fertilizers sector altogether.
The Camacari plant in Bahia state can produce
475,000 tonnes/year of ammonia and 475,000
tonnes/year of urea.
The plant in Laranjeiras, Sergipe, can produce
650,000 tonnes/year of urea, 450,000
tonnes/year of ammonia and 320,000 tonnes/year
of ammonium sulphate (AS).
FAILED FERTILIZERS
ADVENTURE
The agreement puts an end to the 10-year lease
for the plants signed by Unigel and
Petrobras in 2019.
While successful at first, as fertilizers
prices shot up immediately after the first wave
of the COVID-19 pandemic, prices started to
fall in 2022 though while prices for natural
gas rose sharply.
In 2024, Unigel idled
the two plants as high prices for gas
and low selling prices made operations
unprofitable, it said.
Along the way, Petrobras accused Unigel
of not
fulfilling the terms and conditions of
what they had agreed.
Moreover, from 2022, woes at Unigel’s
petrochemicals divisions – mostly producing
styrenics – added to those in fertilizers.
By the end of 2023, the company was forced to
enter a debt
restructuring process from which it
only emerged in 2024.
Earlier in May, Unigel presented its first
comprehensive quarterly financial metrics since
2023, when it entered the restructuring
process. Brazil’s financial regulations provide
for such a provision for companies in financial
distress.
While it posted small earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA),
the producer continued
haemorrhaging money in the first
quarter, with sales falling year on year and
posting a net loss of Brazilian reais (R) 209
million ($37 million).
($1 = R5.71)
Crude Oil23-May-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s core consumer price
index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year on year in April,
raising pressure on the central bank to
continue raising interest rates, official data
showed on Friday.
Headline inflation, which includes all items,
climbed by 3.6% year on year in April,
steadying from a month ago.
The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) preferred measure of
inflation, which excludes fresh food and fuel,
rose 3.0% year on year in April, above the 2.9%
gain recorded in March.
Japan’s inflation has remained above the
central bank’s 2% target since April 2022,
prompting policymakers to gradually increase
interest rates.
In January, the BOJ raised its short-term
interest rate to 0.5% from 0.25%, a sign of
growing confidence in achieving its inflation
target sustainably.
While the BOJ has indicated further rate hikes
are likely, it must also weigh external
pressures such as potential impacts from US
tariffs against ongoing domestic price
increases, particularly in food.
Polypropylene22-May-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US trucking activity edged
lower in April as the industry has yet to
experience a recovery as it deals with tariff
uncertainty and softening economic indicators,
according to the American Trucking Associations
(ATA) seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck
Tonnage Index.
The index fell by 0.3% in April after
contracting by 1.5% in March, as shown in the
following chart.
Source: American Trucking Associations
ATA chief economist Bob Costello said the index
has fallen for two consecutive months after
surging in February to its highest since May
2024.
“Unfortunately, a recovery that was expected
this year hasn’t transpired as the industry
deals with a freight market in flux from
tariffs and softening economic indicators,”
Costello said.
The not seasonally adjusted index, which
calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled,
equaled 112.0 in April, 2.2% below March’s
reading of 114.6.
Both indices are dominated by contract freight,
as opposed to traditional spot market freight.
RATES EDGE HIGHER ON ROADCHECK
WEEK
Broker-posted spot rates in the FTR
Transportation Intelligence Truckstop system
for dry van and refrigerated equipment soared
during the week ended 16 May (week 19) due to
the annual International Roadcheck roadside
inspection event, which was held 13-15 May.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index reading for
March improved to a positive 0.28 reading from
-0.21 in February, as shown in the following
chart.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking,
said more volatility is expected in the near
term.
“After a strong first quarter in freight volume
– at least partially due to a pull-forward of
imports in advance of tariffs – we expect more
volatility in the months ahead as shippers
respond to US trade policy shifts,” Vise said.
“The recent short-term agreement between the US
and China greatly reduces the potential
near-term hit to freight volumes, but we still
expect uncertainty and higher costs for
consumers to be drags on the economy and
freight,” Vise said.
WHITE HOUSE ORDER COULD REDUCE
DRIVERS
Vise said a wild card that market participants
are watching is whether renewed scrutiny
concerning truck drivers’ English language
skills and non-domicile commercial driver’s
licenses (CDLs) will affect the driver supply
significantly.
US President Donald Trump signed an executive
order recently aimed at, “ensuring anyone
behind the wheel of a commercial vehicle is
properly qualified and proficient in English”.
ATA Senior Vice President of Regulatory &
Safety Policy Dan Horvath said the executive
order responds to its concerns on the uneven
application of this existing regulation and
looks forward to working with regulators on an
enforcement standard.
A distributor in the US chemical markets said
it has not seen any disruptions in its trucking
operations and suggested enforcement could be
difficult.
Trump’s order reversed a 2016 policy that said
commercial vehicle drivers should not be placed
out-of-service for English language proficiency
(ELP) violations.
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA),
a nonprofit organization comprised of local,
state, provincial, territorial and federal
commercial motor vehicle safety officials and
industry representatives, issued updated
guidance this week that ELP violations will be
out-of-service offenses again beginning 25
June.
Ethylene22-May-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical plants along the US
Gulf Coast will face another active hurricane
season, but any potential disruptions will be
partially if not entirely offset by excess
global capacity and weaker demand growth.
Meteorologists expect up to 10 hurricanes
in the Atlantic basin during this year’s
hurricane season, which starts in June and
lasts through November
The global supply glut of plastics and
chemicals will continue in 2025 and beyond
Global plastic and chemical demand will
weaken because of tariffs and a prolonged
manufacturing downturn
BUSY HURRICANE
SEASONMeteorologists expect a
busy hurricane season as shown in the following
table:
AccuWeather
CSU
US
30-Year Average
Hurricanes
7-10
9
6-10
7
Major hurricanes
3-5
4
3-5
3
TOTAL
13-18
17
13-19
14
*Major hurricanes have wind speeds of at
least 111 miles/hour (178 km/hour)
Sources: AccuWeather, Colorado State University
(CSU), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
Hurricanes directly affect the chemical
industry because plants and refineries shut
down in preparation for the storms, and they
sometimes remain down because of damage. Power
outages can last for days or weeks.
Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and
highways, which can prevent operating plants
from receiving feedstock or shipping out
products.
Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are
on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and
Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes.
Other plants and refineries are scattered
farther east in the states of Mississippi,
Alabama and Florida, a peninsula that is also a
hub for phosphate production and fertilizer
logistics.
Hurricanes can shut down LNG terminals, most of
which are concentrated along the Gulf Coast. If
the outages last long enough, it can cause a
local glut of natural gas and a decline in
prices. US prices for ethane tend to rise and
fall with those of natural gas, so a prolonged
shutdown of LNG terminals would lower feedstock
costs – especially if the hurricane also shuts
down ethane crackers.
Petrochemical plants outside of the US are
becoming increasingly reliant on that country’s
exports of ethane, ethylene and liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG), a feedstock for crackers
and for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units.
Most of these terminals are on the Gulf Coast,
leaving them vulnerable to disruptions caused
by hurricanes.
HOTTER SUMMER COULD REDUCE THROUGHPUT
AT GAS PLANTSExtremely high
temperatures can reduce the throughput of Texan
natural gas processing plants, which extract
ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs)
from raw natural gas. Such reductions took
place in 2024 during the peak summer months of
August and September, when temperatures are
typically at their highest in many parts of
Texas.
Texas has natural gas processing plants in the
western and fractionation hubs in the eastern
parts of the state. For both regions, summer
temperatures should be 1-2°F higher than
normal,
according to AccuWeather, a meteorology
firm. That amounts to 0.6-1.0°C higher.
CHEM OVERCAPACITY GROWS
BIGGERThe effect of any
shutdowns of chemical plants will be blunted by
excess global capacity. Companies have
continued to start up new plants, despite the
oversupply of plastics and chemicals.
ICIS FORECASTS WEAKER 2025 DEMAND
GROWTHAny disruptions to
chemical production would take place amid
weaker demand growth.
ICIS forecasts that 2025 demand growth for most
commodity plastics will slow from 2024 and
remain well below levels in 2018 and earlier.
The following chart ICIS past demand growth
rates and forecasts for 2025.
Source: ICIS
Growth rates are slower in part due to
uncertainty caused by US trade policy. ICIS
expects global GDP to expand by 2.2% in 2025,
down from 2.8% in 2024. Global manufacturing is
expected to contract globally. The following
breaks down forecasts for national purchasing
managers’ indices (PMI). Anything below 50
indicates contraction.
Sources: Institute
for Supply Management, S&P Global and JP
Morgan
RESUMPTION OF TARIFFS WOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN DEMANDIn July, the US
could resume imposing its higher reciprocal
tariffs against much of the world,
including the EU, following a 90-day pause
announced in April.
The EU is preparing a list of retaliatory
tariffs that covers many US imports of
commodity chemicals and plastics, including the
following:
Caustic soda
Acetic Acid
Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM)
Polyethylene (PE)
Polypropylene (PP)
Polystyrene (PS)
Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS)
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
The US and EU may extend the pause or reach a
trade agreement that would do away with the
need for retaliatory tariffs. But if the two
sides fail to reach an agreement, then the EU’s
retaliatory would likely reduce demand for US
plastics and chemicals.
Demand for US plastics and chemicals could take
another hit in mid-August if the US and China
resume triple-digit tariffs
following their 90-day pause.
The pause would expire right before hurricane
season reaches its peak in the US.
Insight article by Al
Greenwood
Thumbnail shows a hurricane. Image by
NOAA.
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