TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s Liberal-led minority government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is paying a heavy price for its decision last month to end the labor dispute at freight railroads Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) through binding arbitration. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) on Thursday confirmed that it cancelled a “supply and confidence agreement” from 2022 under which it supported the Liberals, which hold only a minority of parliamentary seats. The NDP is close to labor trade unions and had warned Trudeau repeatedly not to intervene in the dispute. In a televised press conference on Thursday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said the government’s intervention added to “mounting evidence” that the Liberals were “too beholden to corporate interests”, making it impossible for the NDP to continue supporting them. Singh alleged the railroads had “colluded” to set up a scenario in which both companies were in a labor dispute at the same time, and that they had negotiated in “bad faith”. Instead of allowing the dispute to be settled through the collective bargaining process, the government, by ordering binding arbitration, awarded the companies for their conduct, he said. After a four-day freight rail shutdown at both CN and CPKC last month, the government directed a labor tribunal to end the shutdown and settle the dispute through binding arbitration. Freight rail service resumed on 26 August. From now on, the NDP’s voting in parliament would be case-by-case, based on what the party deems best for workers and families, Singh said. Voting non-confidence would be “on the table” and an early election was now more likely, he said. If the NDP joins the Conservatives and other opposition parties in voting against the government on the next confidence measure, the government will fall and an election has to be held. Seats in parliament (total: 338): Liberals Conservatives Bloc Quebecois NDP Others 154 119 32 24 9 Political commentators said that the NDP cancelled the agreement as it needed to distance itself from the Liberals, who after nine years in government are unpopular and are far behind the Conservatives in opinion polls. Singh rejected suggestions that by ending the agreement with the Liberals he was opening the door to a Conservative government. The NDP would be running against both Liberals and Conservatives, he said. Trudeau would “always cave to corporate greed”, and the Conservatives, if elected, would be worse, he said. The Conservative Party, which is supportive of Canada’s oil and gas industry, has pledged that if elected it would immediately abolish the consumer carbon tax implemented by the Liberals. There is a possibility that the Liberals may now look to opposition party Bloc Quebecois (BQ) for support – the BQ is advocating for Quebec to secede from Canada and become an independent nation. Rail labor union Teamster Canada welcomed the NDP’s decision to stop supporting the Liberals. The union has filed court challenges against the government decision to end the labor dispute through binding arbitration. Meanwhile, total Canadian freight rail traffic – intermodal and railcars – fell 5.8% year on year for the week ended 31 August. Industry officials have said it may take weeks for supply chains to normalize after last month’s shutdown. The following table by the AAR shows total Canadian freight rail data for the week ended 31 August and for the first 35 weeks of 2024: In Canada’s chemical industry, producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Thumbnail photo of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meeting students at college in Ontario in May; photo source: Government of Canada

European traders asked to pay difference for capacity booked prior to a sharp tariff increase The increase could wipe out transit on Trans-Balkan route Ukrainian TSO GTSOU says the latest increase could lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova LONDON (ICIS)–Traders have lashed out at the Moldovan gas grid operator Vestmoldtransgaz (VMTG) for being asked to pay higher transmission tariffs for capacity booked prior to the price hike on 1 September. At least ten companies active regionally and local traders who booked monthly or quarterly capacity for gas sourced in southern Europe and transiting Moldova to Ukrainian storage have been asked to pay the difference between the old and the new tariffs. Traders say the increase is wiping out the competitiveness of one of the most attractive regional transit routes and will block Moldova and Ukraine’s access to non-Russian gas supplies in southern Europe. An international trader told ICIS that beyond hurting the economic viability of the route the decision would also put a major burden on Moldovan consumers, who will have to face ever soaring bills. Another trader said the increase would hit the entire region. He questioned why VMTG increased tariffs by 50% since it hadn’t made any recent investments and the transmission assets it now operates have long been amortised. MOLDOVAN LOSSES In a letter sent to the Moldovan regulator, the ministry of energy, VMTG and the Energy Community and seen by ICIS, the Ukrainian gas grid operator GTSOU said reverse flows along the Trans-Balkan route linking southern Europe to Ukraine had ‘significantly facilitated cross-border trading opportunities in the region.’ VMTG, a company majority-owned by the Romanian grid operator, Transgaz, took over Moldova’s transmission operations in September 2023 following a government and regulator push to divest transmission from incumbent Moldovagaz. The transfer of operations via the lease agreement was pushed through after Gazprom, Moldovagaz’ majority owner, repeatedly requested the delay of transmission unbundling. Immediately after the switchover, VMTG requested a tariff increase, which was approved by the Moldovan regulator. This year VMTG has requested a further rise, with entry tariffs increasing from Moldovan Lei 20.9/MWh/h (€1.08/MWh/h) to Moldovan Lei 30.7/MWh/h (€1.59/MWh/h) on 1 September. Exit tariffs have also risen from Moldovan Lei 22.3/MWh/h to Moldovan Lei 35.5/MWh/h (€1.85/MWh/h). GTSOU said in the letter that the sharp tariff increase requested by VMTG combined with an increase in transmission tariffs in neighbouring transit country Romania has led to utilisation rates for the route dropping from 83% in 2023, prior to VMTG’s takeover, to 10% in 2024. The Ukrainian operator calculated that prior to the first VMTG tariff transit costs to ship gas from Greece to the Grebenyky on the border with Ukraine were around €3.00/MWh. Following the first rise, the overall cost rose by 67% to €5.00/MWh, while now it has increased to €6.7/MWh, with Moldova being the most expensive transit country in the region and possibly across Europe, traders say. The Ukrainian grid operator said the latest increase would ‘worsen’ the situation and lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova. A source close to GTSOU said VMTG could alleviate the situation by introducing comparatively cheaper short-haul tariffs bridging cross-border points. ANRE, Transgaz and VMTG did not reply to questions by publication.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian petrochemical major Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has won in the bid to get government incentives to produce advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries, which can be used in electric vehicles (EVs). Government incentives worth $431 million RIL chosen out of seven in tender process Construction of RIL ACC battery project in Gujarat ongoing The company will get Indian rupees (Rs) 36.2 billion ($431 million) worth of incentives under the government’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries said on 4 September. RIL bested six other bidders in the global tender process for the incentives in building an ACC plant with a 10 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) capacity, it said. The other bidders were ACME Cleantech Solutions; Amara Raja Advanced Cell Technologies; Anvi Power Industries; JSW Neo Energy; Lucas TVS; and Waree Energies. RIL is currently constructing an ACC-based battery manufacturing plant in Jamnagar in the western Gujarat state. “We have already begun construction of an integrated advanced chemistry-based battery manufacturing facility with a 30 GWh annual capacity at Jamnagar,” RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani had said during the Indian conglomerate’s annual general meeting (AGM) on 29 August. “Production will commence by the second half of next year,” Ambani added. The plant will initially assemble battery systems and packs, later expanding to cell manufacturing and chemical production, he added. ACC batteries can store and convert electric energy and are used in a variety of applications, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, consumer electronics, and as power backup. EVs and associated battery markets provide growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for the environment-friendly vehicles. In May 2021, the Indian government set aside Rs181 billion for a National Programme on ACC battery storage to encourage development of the battery storage ecosystem and electric mobility in India. In the first round of the ACC PLI bidding in March 2022, three beneficiary firms were allocated a total capacity of 30 GWh. Ola Cell Technologies, Rajesh Exports Ltd and RIL subsidiary Reliance New Energy Solar Ltd won the bid in the first round. The fourth company that was initially awarded incentives was eventually disqualified, paving the way for rebidding of the unawarded 20GWh capacity, according to local media reports. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.98)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The collectively bargained contract between US East Coast and US Gulf ports and dock workers expires at the end of the month and the parties are not currently negotiating, leading one of the nation’s largest retail trade groups to urge the government to get involved. Last week, both parties submitted documents with the US Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) informing the agency of a dispute between the parties, as required by law. About 14,500 dock workers are represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), while the 36 ports – including three of the busiest ports in the US in Houston, New York and New Jersey, and Savannah, Georgia – are represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The looming work stoppage would have major impacts on the US economy, and the National Retail Federation (NRF) has urged both sides to resume negotiations. “At a time when inflation is on the downward trend, a strike or other disruption would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The administration needs to offer any and all support to get the parties back to the table to negotiate a new contract.” In June, NRF led a coalition of 158 state and federal trade associations in a letter to President Joe Biden urging the administration to work with the negotiating parties to reach a new agreement. The NRF said that the threat of a strike during the peak shipping season has many retailers already implementing costly mitigation strategies, such as shifting deliveries to West Coast ports. This adds additional costs because of the longer routes, which could be even more drastic as capacity for ocean carriers is already tight because of diversions away from the Suez Canal and Red Sea. USMX said in a statement on its website that it is seeking a return to the bargaining table. “USMX has still been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA to resume negotiations on a new master contract,” according to the statement. “USMX continues to meet with its members in preparation for the resumption of negotiations, and it remains committed to working with the ILA leadership on a new agreement.” The ILA is holding Wage Scale Committee meetings today and tomorrow in Teaneck, New Jersey, and union president Harold Daggett insists the union will strike at 00:01 Eastern Time on 1 October if a deal is not reached. “There is a real chance we will not have an agreement in place,” Harold Daggett said in a video shared on the ILA website. “The ILA will definitely hit the streets on 1 October if we do not get the kind of contract we deserve,” Daggett said. Dennis Daggett, ILA executive vice president, said in the video that the two sides are at an impasse and cannot even get past the economics of a new contract. Other issues that the ILA cites as deal-breakers are container royalty (special payments to compensate longshoremen for decreased employment opportunities resulting from the use of containerized shipping), better healthcare benefits, and a ban on all automated and semi-automated services at the ports. Dennis Daggett said the ILA has been working through local agreements between locals and individual ports before focusing on the overall agreement and still has some items to work out at the local level, including Mobile, Alabama, and Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida. Market participants have said a strike by dockworkers would not have much of an impact on liquid chemical tankers. One reason is that most terminals that handle liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and do not necessarily use union labor. Also, tankers do not require as much labor as container or dry cargo vessels, which must be loaded and unloaded with cranes and require labor for forklifts and trucks. But more liquid chemicals are being moved on container ships in isotanks. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

BUENOS AIRES (ICIS)–For years, Latin American petrochemicals companies have been trying to increase diversity within to better represent the consumers they want to sell their products to – without much success. Company boards and middle management levels continue to be mostly populated by men, and most of them tend to be white, in a region where ethnic minorities are sometimes the majorities. The environmental, social, and governance (ESG) mantra has been used so many times that it has become a bit futile. A few statistics to show off positive trends are one thing – real change is another. Companies need to go the extra mile to be as plural as society. And in some Latin American countries like Brazil, that mostly means one thing: blackness, in the country outside Africa with the largest black population. They will need to hire and promote people who will not conform to the norm; visionary people who will be wise enough to know a company will not reach its sales potential until they try, at least, to resemble the society they operate in. Brazil’s polymers major Braskem – the largest petrochemicals producer in Latin America – seems to have found one of those people: meet Debora Ferraz, global senior HR manager at the company and specialist in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) issues. “My job is not only about gender inequality, although that is still a big part of it, of course. My job goes much further than that and it involves making Braskem more like the country: in Brazil, 50% of the population are black or have black roots,” said Ferraz. “We have now established a system in which the HR person looking to hire will not see in what university the candidate coursed his or her studies. Before, we always ended up hiring people who were anything but plural: they all spoke English, they all came from the same universities. Behavior is now the key element in our hiring processes.” Ferraz went on to say that in Braskem’s Mexican operations, a country with painful statistics showing sexism is women’s everyday life, a hiring process will not go ahead if there is not at least one woman shortlisted. In Europe, where nationality is probably the biggest factor determining discrimination, Braskem pays more attention to that; in the US, it is veterans of war, many of whom find themselves lost in a competitive labor market after 20 or 30 years of service, she said. Ferraz was speaking to delegates at an event about sustainability organized by the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). Her talk captivated the audience, and it was recurrently referred to thereafter. RACISM: LONG SHADOWBrazil is Latin America’s largest economy, with 220 million consumers, and it is a case increasingly studied when it comes to racism and discrimination. The shadow of four centuries of Portuguese Empire rule, where enslaved black Africans composed the bread and butter of the workforce, have left a mark present still today, in all aspects of life. “The black and brown [Brazilians with black roots] populations represent 9.1% and 47% of the Brazilian population, respectively. Yet, the share of these population is lower in the indicators that reflect higher levels of life conditions,” said a report by Brazil’s statistics office IBGE in 2022. “This indicator already shows a disadvantage of those populations when inserting in the labor market. The proportions of the black and brown populations among those unemployed and underutilized are higher than what they represent in the labor force,” it added. Racism is so ingrained in Brazil that when the country officially abolished slavery in 1888, the last nation in the western hemisphere to do so, it gave no rights worth the name to its black population and even decided to go as far as Italy or Japan to look for the workers it needed to feed its nascent industrial sectors. Hence the large Japanese or Italian minorities present in the country, who were allowed to integrate fairly well and some of whom went on to build business empires, quickly becoming part of the economic fabric. Meanwhile, blacks remained at the favelas, Brazil’s famous shanty towns, only mixing with the non-black population when they went to do the badly paid jobs, many times in the informal economy. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the Brazilian center-right president who stabilized the economy in the 1990s and gave way to the successes of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in his first and second terms (2001-2011), has become a reference in racism studies. A quote by Cardoso lies in one of the walls of Sao Paulo’s Museu Afro-Brasil, which only opened its doors in 2004 and is a painful journey through Brazil’s most shameful past, a quote which sums up why the integration of all Brazilians will be a long-term and laborious enterprise. “An economic system which was based in slavery and violence for four centuries creates a deformed society,” said Cardoso. And a deformed society will invariably take many decades – hopefully not centuries – to be fixed. Companies like Braskem should make more efforts to bring people like Ferraz in but, most importantly, listen to what they have to say and follow their advice – Ferraz is black herself, and without doubt she will have suffered racism. “We need to aim to have a good representation of society within the company. To get serious with this, we must have quantitative targets: we can do continuous training with employees, but if we don’t set clear targets, nothing will be achieved,” said Ferraz, who has been in her current post since 2022. “Up to that year, 30% of our workforce was black but that figure had not changed in the preceding 15 years, no matter how many trainings we did. Since 2022, that figure has increased to 37%. What has changed? That we set clear targets, and we are fighting hard to achieve them. I speak monthly with the CEO and with other board members, because they are the first ones who must believe in this.” Speaking at the same panel, Paola Argento, head of diversity at Argentina’s energy and petrochemicals major YPF, corroborated that until a company does not employ a plurality of workers – each of them feeling free enough to bring its own singularity to the workplace – a company will not reach its potential. “If we all come from the same universities, the final product we offer will not be innovative. Plurality allows us to produce better products and services. These days, most consumers do care about these issues, so the lack of plurality and innovation will end up negatively affecting sales,” said Argento. “But to achieve this true plurality of thinking, the highest executives at a company have to understand it and be fully behind it.” The APLA sustainability event runs in Buenos Aires on 4 September. Front page picture source: Brazil’s statistics office IBGE Insight by Jonathan Lopez

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe chemicals shares and public markets slumped on Wednesday in the wake of sell-offs in Asia and the US on the back of growth fears and a crude oil sell-off. Stock exchanges in Asia and the US crashed on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for the second time in less than a month after another market rout, with weak economic data from the US and China once more ringing alarm bells. BEARISH US INDICATORS As was the case during the early August rout, bearish economic data from the US stoked market fears of a slowdown in the country, which has proven the most resilient large mature economy during the slump of the last few years. The US manufacturing sector contraction deepened in August, according to purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data collected by S&P Global, showing a drop from 49.6 in July to 47.9, with future indicators pointing to potential further deterioration ahead. “There is a worrying narrowing of the pockets of strength,” said ING chief international economist James Knightley, commenting o the numbers. “Just 22% of industry is experiencing rising orders and just 17% are seeing rising production. Historically, this weakness in output and orders points to a sharp slowing in GDP growth,” he added. The August figures are the latest warning signal on economic momentum in the country, following an unexpected decline in manufactured goods orders in June, according to the US Census Bureau in early August, the most recent data available. As was the case in last month’s market crash, tech stock slumps led the US declines on Tuesday.  While sector declines last month had been driven by growing scepticism over the potential of artificial intelligence, Nvidia saw one of the sharpest falls declines this month. The chipmaker reportedly received a government subpoena as part of an antitrust investigation wiped over 9% off its market value, a loss estimated at $279 billion. ASIA SLUMPS With global microchip supply chains strongly connected to Asia, the Nvidia sell-off also ripple through the region’s technology stocks, with core players including Samsung, Tokyo Electro and Taiwan Semiconductor suffering sharp losses by Tuesday’s close. Economic data for China released late last week showed the first decline in export orders in eight months, while the manufacturing sector I the country remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month in August, and house prices seeing the slowest pace of growth in 2024 so far. Industrial indicators for Europe, where manufacturing has been on recessionary footing for over two years, new order volumes are continuing to decline, potentially signalling a period in autumn where manufacturing demand is shrinking in US, China and the eurozone. OIL SUPPLY LENGTHENSCrude oil prices also slumped, falling to the lowest level in  to the lowest levels of the year, on the back of expectations that the OPEC+ coalition will begin to unwind their 2.2 million bbl/day production cuts next month. Expectations that Libya will begin to restart crude production and exports after a political agreement was reached. These two factors point to a substantial increase in supply despite ongoing sluggish demand, driving Brent and WTI futures down to $74.19/bbl and $70.79/bbl respectively in midday trading on 4 September. The US Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed down 1.51%, 2.12% and 3.26% respectively on Tuesday evening, while Japan’s Nikkei 224 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bourses concluded trading down 4.24% and 1.10% on Wednesday. In Europe, Germany’s DAX index was down 0.84% in midday Wednesday trading, while France’s CAC 40 and the STOXX Europe 50 index had lost 0.97% and 1.19% respectively. Aggregate chemicals sector losses were more modest, with the STOXX 600 index for the sector down 0.15% as of 13:29 BST. EMS-Chemie and Umicore had suffered the sharpest declines as of that time, dropping 1.49% and 1.31%. Linde and Yara shares both dropped 0.97% compared to Tuesday’s close, while Brenntag, Bayer and OCI saw falls of over 0.50%. Focus article by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo: Traders in Seoul, South Korea, on 4 September, The South Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed down 3.15% on the day. Source: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical shares slumped on Wednesday as regional bourses tracked Wall Street’s rout overnight on poor data from both the US and China, with crude prices shedding more than $1/bbl in late Asian trade. Major US equity indexes suffer worst session since 5 August China August export orders decline for first time in eight months US crude trades below $70/bbl At the close of trade in Tokyo, Mitsui Chemicals fell 3.07% and Sumitomo Chemical tumbled by more than 4%, with the Nikkei 225 index down 4.24% at 37,047.61. It was the second sharpest decline in Japan’s benchmark stock index since the 12% plunge on 5 August due to US recession fears and a stronger yen. In Seoul, LG Chem ended down 2.06%, with South Korea’s KOSPI Index down 3.15% to close at 2,580.80. In Hong Kong, PetroChina slumped by more than 6% at the close of trade, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.10% at 17,457.34. In Kuala Lumpur, PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) slipped by 0.36% with the stock market index dipping by 0.43% to close 1,670.88. Major US equity indexes overnight posted their worst session since the global sell-off on 5 August this year, as financial markets evaluated economic data from the US and China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled overnight by 1.51%, the S&P 500 fell by 2.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed 3.26% lower. US, CHINA DATA STOKE SLOWDOWN WORRIES  In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) monthly survey of purchasing managers showed a reading of 47.2, below the 50 breakeven point for expansion of activity for the fifth straight month. Separately, the final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI reading for August was at 47.9, down from 49.6 in July. The latest reading was the lowest since last December and signaled a second consecutive month of deteriorating manufacturing conditions. Meanwhile, China released economic data on 31 August indicating a decline in export orders, the first such decrease in eight months. China’s factories remained in contraction mode, with August official manufacturing PMI posting a reading of below 50 for the fourth consecutive month. Additionally, data on 1 September showed that China’s new home prices increased at their slowest pace of the year during August. The average price for new homes across 100 cities in the country edged up 0.11% from July, slowing from the 0.13% rise in June this year, according to data from property researcher China Index Academy. OIL PRICES CONTINUE LOWER Oil prices fell by more than $1/bbl in late Asian trade on Wednesday, extending their losses after plunging by more than 4% the previous day and hovering at their lowest since December 2023 on concerns about sluggish global demand. Also exerting downward pressure on the market are expectations that a political dispute halting Libyan exports could be resolved. Libya’s move to appoint a new central bank governor signals progress in resolving recent challenges, but this development, coupled with the resumption of Libyan oil production and OPEC+’s planned output increase, could lead to an oversupply of oil, putting downward pressure on crude prices. “The market is also bracing itself for the gradual return of OPEC+ [OPEC and its allies] supply from October, at a time when there is plenty of concern over demand weakness,” Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING said in a note. “The further pressure we see on prices the more likely that OPEC+ will be forced to scrap plans to bring supply back onto the market,” it said. “However, with the balance looking soft through 2025, the question is when the group will eventually be able to bring supply back onto the market without putting significant pressure on prices,” ING added. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman (Updates stocks, oil prices; adds ING comments) Thumbnail image: At Yantai Port in China on 2 September 2024. (Source: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Typhoon Yagi is steadily intensifying and tracking northwestward across the South China Sea on Wednesday, with landfall expected on Guangdong province in southern China on 6 September. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) issued on Wednesday an orange typhoon warning – the second highest level in a four-tier scale. Strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas are forecast over the central and southern coastal areas of Fujian and the central and eastern coastal areas of Guangdong province. Yagi, which intensified into a typhoon early on Wednesday, was centered some 60 kilometers (37.28 miles) east of Wenchang city, Hainan province at 02:00 GMT, according to CMA. It is forecast to move in a west-northwest direction at a speed of about 10 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will gradually increase before making landfall on the coast Wanning, Hainan, and Dianbai in Guangdong on the afternoon of 6 September. Guangdong houses the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a major hub for industries such as electronics, telecommunications, and logistics. The typhoon will then move into the Gulf of Tonkin in the early morning of 7 September, and then move towards the China-Vietnam border before gradually weakening. Yagi previously made landfall as a tropical storm in the northern Aurora province of the Philippines on 2 September, killing 14 people. It comes in the wake of Typhoon Shanshan, which crossed Japan late last month. Shanshan had brought record-breaking rainfall triggered widespread flooding and landslides in Japan, particularly in the western and eastern regions. Over 1,000 domestic flights and several international flights in Japan have had to be canceled due to Shanshan, affecting thousands of passengers. Rail operators had suspended Shinkansen bullet trains and other services.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Alice asked the Chesire cat perched in a tree, “what road do I take?” to which the cat asked, “where are you going?” Alice admitted, “I don’t know.” The cat’s response was, “then it doesn’t matter. If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there”. Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland, published in 1865, has always been more than just a fabulous children’s story. Such is the plight of some chemicals companies as they recognize the need for change, but don’t know exactly what change looks like as they struggle to decide which road to take. I see the problem here as being bogged down in the details, getting stuck in the weeds, when the details are simply unknowable right now. But what we do know and must determine at the C-suite level – and this would then trickle down to every level of organization – is the overall direction. The details will sort themselves out later. See today’s blog for a reminder of the ten interconnected reasons why I believe that the Chemicals Supercycle is over. Click on the links in the slide for the relevant background. The first question each commodity chemicals company needs to answer is this: “Can we continue to compete in the global commodity chemicals space, or do we instead need to become a niche, higher-value player?” There will be many, many shades of grey between these two extremes. But C-suites should start with a binary choice as I believe that: The truly global and ever-expanding commodity players are likely to be in the Middle East, the US and Canada only because of feedstock advantages – and connected to feedstocks, the push to convert more oil into chemicals. We don’t know whether China can be a major global export player in commodity chemicals (maybe in some value chains where it is already the dominant player) because of geopolitics. What seems clearer is that by itself, and with its geopolitical partners, it is likely to continue its push to greater commodity chemicals self-sufficiency. This leaves the rest of the world – barring a few state-owned oil-to-gas-and-chemicals majors in regions such as Southeast Asia – facing the challenge of becoming more niche. So, you are Alice.  You have returned to the tree, having decided where you want to go. You ask the Cheshire cat, me, what route to take. All I will say here is “meow”. For more details, contact john.richardson@icis.com. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.