LONDON (ICIS)–Countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have submitted a letter to the European Commission calling for customs duty to be imposed on imports of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, the Polish Ministry of Development and Technology has confirmed. The duty being discussed is 30-40% for nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers. Market participants believe a duty is unlikely to be imposed given Europe’s dependence on Russian fertilizer, especially when gas prices are rising, which could hit domestic production in Europe. European buyers have delayed imports, including of urea, to the first quarter of 2025. It is unlikely any government would want to antagonize the farming community further when there have been protests by farmers across many countries over the cost of inputs and taxes. Domestic producers, including in northwest Europe such as Germany, have been campaigning for duties on Russian fertilizers, but met with no success. Local producers say imports are available at competitive prices, partly due to the low cost of Russian natural gas. This puts pressure on European producers, particularly when it comes to remaining competitive while maintaining profitability. The concern is that the lower Russian prices could lead to an oversupply, creating unfair competition for European suppliers who may not be able to match those prices. There is also a broader concern about Europe, and Germany in particular, becoming too dependent on Russian resources – both in terms of urea and potentially other agricultural inputs. Data from the first eight months of the year shows an increase of more than 50% in fertilizer imports to the EU from Russia compared with the same period last year. In January-August, Russia was the biggest supplier of urea to Poland, at 426,342 tonnes, more than double the 207,981 tonnes in the same period of 2023, according to customs data. Additional reporting by Julia Meehan Thumbnail image source: Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone business activity fell in November with confidence in the year-ahead outlook also weakening. The decline in output came as business activity in the service sector decreased for the first time in 10 months to join manufacturing in contraction territory, S&P Global said in its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) composite and services business activity indexes both hit a 10-month low, with manufacturing and manufacturing output at two-month lows, according to survey data collected 12-20 November. HCOB PMI Indexes Nov Oct Composite Output 48.1 50.0 Services Business Activity 49.2 51.6 Manufacturing Output 45.1 45.8 Manufacturing 45.2 46.0 A figure above 50 in the index indicates expansion, and below 50 contraction. “For the first time since the opening month of the year, both monitored sectors saw output decrease in November as services joined manufacturing in contraction,” S&P said. Business sentiment for the year ahead fell sharply and was the lowest since September 2023, mainly driven by the service sector where optimism fell to a two-year low. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at HCOB, said recent political events may have been a factor in the weaker business performance. “It is no surprise really, given the political mess in the biggest eurozone economies lately – France’s government is on shaky ground, and Germany’s heading for early elections,” the economist said. “Throw in the election of Donald Trump as US president, and it is no wonder the economy is facing challenges. Businesses are just navigating by sight.” In the UK, business activity also fell in November to end a 12-month period of sustained expansion. All  the PMI indicators were down from the previous month, with a sustained drop in private sector employment amid weaker business optimism and rising cost inflation.

– 4 LNG terminals expected – 10 gas power plants proposed – Robust growth market for LNG SINGAPORE (ICIS) –The Philippines is considered a robust growth point of LNG demand in Asia. It has a population of 115.8 million, densely concentrated around major city clusters that also drive the country’s fast economic growth and industrialization. Natural gas plays a significant role in the Philippines’ economy, especially in the energy sector, followed by industrial and transportation – 98% of Philippines’ gas supply goes to the power sector. Natural gas-fired power generation accounts for around 21% of the total energy mix in the Philippines. ICIS estimates the Philippines’ power demand will grow at a rate around 6.7%. The primary source of natural gas supply in the Philippines has been the Malampaya Gas Field, which accounts for more than 99% of domestic production. Operational since October 2001, the offshore gas field has been declining from 2022 and is estimated to be depleted by early 2027. Consequently, imported LNG has emerged as an option to fuel the country’s energy transition, backfilling the domestic supply gap and fulfilling fast-rising gas demand. Philippines began to import LNG in 2023 and received 17 cargoes for 2024 by the time of this article. ICIS Foresight expects the country’s LNG imports for 2024 to reach 1.17 million tonnes, twice as much its 2023 imports. Currently Philippines has two LNG receiving terminals. The first LNG project, Philippines LNG (PHLNG) operated by Singapore’s AG&P, uses the ADNOC’s Ish as a storage unit and onshore regasification equipment to supply gas to San Miguel Global Power’s 1,278 MW Ilijan CCPP (combined cycle power plant). The second terminal, Batangas FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) owned by utility First Gen uses the BW Batangas and fires four nearby power plants. The country has four upcoming LNG terminals that will come online through 2025-2026, adding a total regasification capacity of 10.72mpta. The government envisions another 3.98mpta LNG capacity to meet supply requirement by 2050. Construction for more gas power plants are also on the way. As of March 2023, Luzon alone has 10 gas to power project proposals, which will add 10.2GW electricity generation capacity accumulatively. (Yuanda Wang in Shanghai contributed to this article)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-3% in 2025, as overall economic growth in its key trading partners is anticipated to ease slightly from 2024 levels, official estimates showed on Friday. 2024 GDP growth forecast raised to “around 3.5%” Global economic uncertainties have increased Singapore’s Q3 petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year In particular, the US economy is expected to slow due to easing labor market conditions, although investment growth will provide some support, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement. In contrast, the eurozone will likely see a pickup in growth, driven by stronger consumption and investment recovery amid accommodative monetary policy. In Asia, China’s GDP growth will moderate due to weaker exports from announced tariff hikes, but domestic consumption will cushion the slowdown as consumer sentiment improves and the property market stabilizes. Meanwhile, key Southeast Asian economies will experience steady growth, fueled by the upswing in global electronics demand. GLOBAL GROWTH RISKS WIDEN “Global economic uncertainties have increased, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside,” the MTI said. Intensifying geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions could increase oil prices, production costs, and policy uncertainty, ultimately weakening global investment, trade, and growth, the ministry warned. Moreover, disruptions to the global disinflation process may lead to tighter financial conditions, desynchronized monetary policies, and exposed financial vulnerabilities, it added. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are projected to grow 1.0-3.0% in 2025, following a modest expansion of around 1.0% in 2024, a separate statement by trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said on Friday. “While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth,” it said. 2024 GROWTH UPGRADEDFor 2024, the country’s economic growth forecast for 2024 was raised to around 3.5%, above the range of its previous prediction of 2-3%, the MTI said. Singapore’s stronger-than-expected economic showing in the first nine months and updated assessments of global and domestic economic conditions drove the upward revision in the GDP forecast. For the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth averaged 3.8% year on year. Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% year on year in the third quarter of this year, up from the advanced estimates of 4.1%. In terms of trade, Singapore’s petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year in the third quarter, slowing from the 14.9% expansion in the preceding three months. Singapore’s NODX grew by 9.2% year on year on year in the third quarter, swinging from the 6.5% contraction in the preceding three months. Singapore serves as a major petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with its Jurong Island hub hosting over 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November from the final reading of 49.2 in October on weaker output and new orders, preliminary estimates from au Jibun Bank showed on Friday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion while a lower number denotes contraction. The November figure marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction for the manufacturing sector of the world’s third-biggest economy. Both output and new orders experienced declines in the latest survey period, with output falling by the largest degree since April, au Jibun Bank said in a statement. Spare capacity increased due to sustained declines in new orders and a resulting fall in backlogs. Additionally, firms decreased employment levels for the first time since February. Although input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low, it remained steep, and the rate of charge inflation was the highest since July.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer Genesis Fertilizers announced it has signed a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) agreement with South Korean construction firm DL Engineering & Construction (DL E&C) for their proposed low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer facility in Saskatchewan, Canada. The company said DL E&C’s expertise in world-class fertilizer plant design is evident in their successful of the Ma’aden Ammonia III project in Saudi Arabia and exemplifies their ability to deliver complex projects on time and under budget. Genesis Fertilizers also noted that the FEED phase will establish the essential technical and design groundwork for building a facility that is both safe and efficient with DL E&C set to collaborate with Canada’s PCL Construction throughout preconstruction. They will be charged with creating a comprehensive blueprint, which integrates advanced carbon capture technology, that can deliver sequestration of up to 1 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. The FEED phase is scheduled to start in December and begin setting defined timelines for the project as the company is targeting to have commercial operations underway by 2029. “This FEED agreement is a monumental step in our journey to deliver sustainable, low-carbon fertilizer for Western Canadian farmers,” said Genesis Fertilizers CEO Jason Mann. “Thanks to years of planning, and support from our farming community, we now have a clear path forward for the design of the facility.” “While there is still work to do to finance and construct a cutting-edge fertilizer plant, we are excited to collaborate with DL E&C and PCL Construction to make this vision a reality and bring lasting benefits to Canadian agriculture.” As proposed, there would eventually be both ammonia and urea production at the site with plans to have 75% of output for farmer commitments with the balance sold on the open market. As a vertically integrated, farmer-owned initiative, Genesis Fertilizers intends to return profits directly to its farmer-owners and the company said it recognizes the critical role of farmers, whose support to date has driven this initiative forward. The company said through this project it is seeking to reduce dependency on imports of nitrogen fertilizers by providing a sustainable, farmer-owned alternative.

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Next year’s annual summit of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) will take place in Cancun, Mexico, the organizers confirmed on Thursday. APLA 2025 will take place in November 2025 in the Mexican resort city in Cancun, Mexico. According to APLA, 940 delegates registered for this year’s annual summit, which concluded on Thursday in Cartagena, Colombia. That figure represented an increase of 4.4% compared to the 900 registered attendees at last year’s annual summit in Sao Paulo. “In 2024, we have had a record number of registered delegates as well as of participating companies, with 350 firms,” said APLA’s director general, Manuel Diaz. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia.

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. “External threats are happening in a more frequent manner. So it’s harder for companies to plan and organize logistics and do just-in-time (JIT),” said Natalia Gil Betancourt, economic research leader at the Port of Cartagena. “Because of the armed conflict in the Red Sea, cargoes take 10-14 days longer and that has an impact and cost transferred to the end consumer,” she added. Trade wars and tariffs, part of deglobalization, along with reshoring, will also generate higher costs for the consumer, she noted. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal Authority, which has been hit by drought in late 2022 through 2024, will be under pressure to generate more revenue for the country, said Gabriel Mariscal, business manager – ship agency division at port agency services provider CB Fenton. “Strong El Ninos now occur more often – not once in 20 years. Droughts are more frequent. With climate, you don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Mariscal. Betancourt and Mariscal spoke on a panel at the APLA Annual Meeting. Droughts took down Panama Canal transits from 36 per day, to just around 18 during the worst point, he noted. The Panama Canal Authority is likely to consider new rules to raise profitability, including segmenting prices by type of vessel or even by emissions, he said. Meanwhile, ports are strategic convergence points and should work with industries such as chemicals as strategic partners, said Betancourt. “Anticipating things is very complicated. For example, COVID was a Black Swan event. Another issue is the rearranging of supply chains. Shipping agencies are also reorganizing networks and strategic pathways. All this will impact availability and cost,” said Betancourt. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Thumbnail image shows a container ship passing through the Panama Canal. Courtesy the Panama Canal Authority

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could make a decision any day that would allow California to adopt an aggressive electric vehicle program, triggering similar programs in 12 other states and territories that will likely become the target for repeal under President-Elect Donald Trump. During his campaign, Trump has expressed opposition to policies that favor one drive-train technology over another, saying that he would  “cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations”. California’s EV program is called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), and it works by requiring EVs, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids to make up an ever-increasing share of the state’s auto sales. Other programs that encourage the adoption of EVs could be more vulnerable to repeal and rollbacks under Trump ACC II COULD BOOST EV DEMAND IN 13 STATESBefore California can adopt its ACC II program for EVs, it needs the EPA to grant it a waiver from the US Clean Air Act.  The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said it is expecting a decision from the EPA at any time. If the EPA receives the waiver, then it will trigger the adoption of similar ACC II programs the following states and territories. The figures in parentheses represent each state’s share of light-vehicle registrations. California (11.6%) New York (5.6%) Colorado (1.8%) Oregon (1.0%) Delaware (0.3%) Rhode Island (0.3%) Maryland (1.8%) Vermont (0.3%) Massachusetts (2.1%) Washington (1.9%) New Jersey (3.4%) Washington DC (not available) New Mexico (0.5) Source: CARB In total, the 13 states and territories represent at least 30.6% of US light-vehicle registrations, according to CARB. HOW THE ACCII SUPPORTS EV DEMANDThe following chart shows the share of electric-based vehicles that would need to be sold in California by model year under the state’s ACC II regulations. Programs in other states and territories have similar targets. ZEV stands for zero-emission vehicle and includes EVs and vehicles with fuel cells Source: California Air Resources Board REPEALING THE ACC IIThe key to California’s ACC II programs is the EPA’s decision to grant it a waiver to the Clean Air Act. Trump will likely revoke that waiver if it is granted before he takes office, according to the law firm Gibson Dunn. It expects that California will respond by threatening to retroactively enforce the ACC II program once a friendlier president takes office after Trump’s term ends in four years. Auto makers could choose to take California’s threat seriously and reach an agreement with the state. A similar scenario unfolded during Trump’s first term of office in 2016-2020 that involved California’s earlier Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, according to Gibson Dunn. That program also required a waiver from the EPA, and the dispute was resolved only after Joe Biden restored the waiver after becoming president in 2021. For the possible dispute over the ACC II program, it could take the courts determine whether California can retroactively enforce the program. FEDERAL PROGRAMS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO REPEALThe following federal programs could be more vulnerable to roll backs under Trump. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These standards became stricter in 2024. A tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buyers of EVs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trade groups have argued that the CAFE standards and the tailpipe rules are so strict, they function as effective EV programs. They allege that automobile producers can only meet them by making more EVs. The following table shows the current tailpipe rule. Figures are listed in grams of CO2 emitted per mile driven. 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Cars 131 139 125 112 99 86 73 Trucks 184 184 165 146 128 109 90 Total Fleet 168 170 153 136 119 102 85 Source: EPA The following table shows the fuel efficiency standards under the current CAFE program. Figures are in miles/gallon. 2022 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Passenger cars 44.1 60.0 61.2 62.5 63.7 65.1 Light trucks 32.1 42.6 42.6 43.5 44.3 45.2 Light vehicles 35.8 47.3 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.4 Source: DOT Gibson Dunn expect Trump’s administration will rescind the tailpipe rule and roll back the CAFE standards to levels for model year 2020 vehicles. That would lower the CAFE standards for light vehicles to 35 miles/gal. EVS AND CHEMICALSEVs represent a small but growing market for the chemical industry, because they consume a lot more plastics and chemicals than automobiles powered by ICEs. A mid-size EV contains 45% more plastics and polymer composites and 52% more synthetic rubber and elastomers, according to a May 2024 report by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). EVs also contain higher value materials such as carbon fiber composites and semiconductors, making the total value of chemistry in the automobiles up to 85% higher than in a comparable ICE, according to the ACC. The following chart compares material consumptions in EVs and ICEs. Source: ACC EVs have material challenges that go beyond making them lighter and more energy efficient, such as managing heat from their batteries and tolerating high voltages. Major chemical and material producer are eager to develop materials that can meet these challenges and command the price premiums offered by EVs. Most have EV portfolios and prominently feature them at trade shows A rollback of US incentives for EVs could slow their adoption and weaken demand for these materials. Materials most vulnerable to these rollbacks would include heat management fluids and chemicals used to make electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, such as dimethyl carbonate (DMC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). Other materials used in batteries include polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) and ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMW-PE). Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows an EV. Image by Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/Shutterstock