LONDON (ICIS)–Despite a housing crisis in many of its cities, Germany’s new residential housing continues to decline. Permits fall Building decline hurts economy Benefits from interest rate cuts have not yet kicked in Residential construction permits continued to fall in August, according to the latest data by the country’s federal statistics agency on Friday: Permits fell 6.8% year on year to just 18,300 in August. For the first eight months, permits were 141,900 – down 19.3% year on year from 175,800 in the year-earlier period. Permits already fell sharply last year. Before 2023, they averaged 240,000/year, but even that was low compared with a government target, announced in 2022, of 400,000 new dwellings each year, construction industry officials said. TRADE GROUPS Construction industry trade group BFW Bundesverband Freier Immobilien- und Wohnungsunternehmen said that the situation in building and construction was “precarious”, not only for builders but for the overall economy. About 6.6 million jobs were linked to building and construction, a sector that was as important as the auto industry for the country’s overall economy, the group said. Residential construction “is the key to economic growth in many other industries,” BFW said, adding that the government needed to act decisively to stop the sector’s “crash”. Another group, Zentralverband Deutsches Baugewerbe (ZDB), said that despite government measures, residential housing was not improving The construction industry hopes that the government will take additional measures after a “residential construction summit” (Wohnungsgipfel) scheduled to be held in Hamburg in December, ZDB added. A third trade group, Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie (HDB), was also pessimistic. Permits have now been falling for 28 months and pretty much everything that needed to be said about the decline has been said, HDB noted. The industry had made many suggestions to government to turn things around, with no effect, it added. INTEREST RATES Munich-based economic research group ifo said that the interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have not yet had any impact on Germany’s residential housing. Instead, interest rates on loans for households for residential construction remain high, the group said. In ifo’s September survey of residential construction, 52.9% of building and construction companies reported that order shortages worsened, compared with August. In a positive development, however, fewer orders were canceled than in August. The overall business climate in residential construction ticked up month on month, but “it would be going too far to speak of a glimmer of hope,” ifo said, adding, “The situation in residential construction remains serious.” According to German chemical producers’ trade group VCI, domestic chemical sales into the construction sector fell 3.9% year on year in the January-August period. The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many others. Please also visit the ICIS construction topic page and also visit Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Thumbnail photo source: ZDB

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: No signs of single-use plastics directive-related pick-up in demand Prices stable across all markets Lack of clarity on single-use plastics directive measures and penalties a key issue

XIAMEN, China (ICIS)–With 2025 contract discussions underway for Asia ethylene (C2), ICIS markets editor Josh Quah outlines the top concerns of industry players as they look ahead to the coming year. Players may take steps to hedge against unpredictability of deep-sea cargoes China’s long domestic supply may not yet boost exports by much Producers keen on ethane to be part of cracker feedstock slate

LONDON (ICIS)–Construction output in the eurozone and EU marginally increased in August from the previous month, according to official data on Friday. Seasonally adjusted production in construction was up by 0.1% in the eurozone and by 0.4% in the wider EU. Building and specialized construction activity were higher in both blocs, while civil engineering output was lower, statistics agency Eurostat said in a statement. Construction activity for July was revised down, with a monthly fall of 0.5% in the eurozone and by 0.3% in the EU. Eurostat had initially reported largely flat output in both. On a year-on-year basis, August construction output fell by 2.5% the eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU. Numerous petrochemicals and specialty chemicals are key ingredients in products used for modern construction, including adhesives, ad-mixtures, sealants, coatings, paints, flooring, insulation and water proofing.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic growth continued to lose steam, slowing to 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 4.7% in the previous quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Friday. For the first nine months, growth stood at 4.8%. The slowdown was anticipated, driven by persistent weakness in demand and the struggling property sector. In response, Beijing has ramped up stimulus measures since late September, underscoring concerns about the economy’s trajectory. Achieving the targeted 5% GDP growth for 2024 remains a significant challenge for Beijing, according to analysts.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US equipment manufacturer John Deere has announced it is undertaking layoffs effective 3 January 2025 at facilities in Illinois and Iowa. The company said this action is the result of reduced demand for their equipment and comes as there is more financial strain being experienced within industries they serve, especially their primary market of domestic agriculture. “It is important to note these layoffs are due to reduced demand for the products produced at these facilities. They are not related to production moves,” said a John Deere spokesperson. “As we have repeatedly stated, layoffs this fiscal year are due to the weakening farm economy and a reduction in customer orders for our equipment.” John Deere said it informed employees at John Deere Harvester Works in East Moline, Illinois, which impacts about 200 production positions out of its total employee count of 1,880. The job cuts are also taking place at the John Deere Seeding and Cylinder operations in Moline, Illinois, which will involve seven production employees. The company said there is currently an estimated 625 total employees at this location. There was also notification given at the John Deere Davenport Works in Davenport, Iowa, with about 80 production employees affected. This location has a total workforce of 1,024. John Deere cited the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast which shows major row-crop cash receipts to be down another 18% in 2024, following a 5% decline last year. With the agency expecting marketing year average prices for the new crop, which is the acreage currently being harvested, to continue to decline from last year. Earning revenue from construction equipment as well the company said within the construction industry single-family home sales are down 30%, single-family housing starts are down 10%, and multifamily housing starts are down 40%. John Deere said employees are eligible to be recalled to their home factory for a period equal to their length of service, with those laid off automatically placed in seniority order for openings they are qualified to perform. Laid-off employees will receive unemployment and assistance pay as well as their portion of profit sharing and can keep healthcare coverage under certain terms. The company said other benefits could include life insurance, legal assistance, tuition reimbursement and job-placement assistance.

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals sector executives are increasingly facing up to the idea that the sector is going through a process of reinvention, with no big recovery on the horizon and a return to pre-crisis normalcy less likely. Executives are now looking at next steps for the sector. In this Think Tank podcast, Tom Brown interviews Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting, Katherine Sale,  ICIS head of editorial strategy, and Chris Barker, senior editor covering PVC and caustic soda, on impressions from the EPCA assembly. Growing acceptance of no big demand recovery, while demographic shifts to an ageing population reduce potential future demand growth Consolidation trend likely to continue, but environmentally sustainable products offer a growing opportunity Mood at EPCA less muted than previous two annual meetings, but far from positive Energy pricing less of an issue in 2024 so far but worries remain for 2025, with the specter of high costs likely to speed closures Caustic soda, chlorvinyls markets continue to suffer amid low demand, with substantial closures seen as necessary to balance the market Upcoming EU clean industrial deal likely to be a benefit, but will not be the end of regulatory conversation in Europe Tariffs continuing to proliferate in Europe against lower-cost imports, but do not address underlying competitiveness issue Click here to watch ICIS’ analyst podcast on future chemical and recycling market trends from EPCA. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone annual inflation fell to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August, statistics agency Eurostat said on Thursday. In the wider EU, inflation was down to 2.1% in September from 2.4% in August. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates again later on Thursday as inflation continues to fall. On Wednesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the country’s annual inflation had also fallen to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continue to face downward pressure after an early end to the peak pre-holiday shipping season, but backlogs at some East Coast ports following a 3-day strike could lead to short-term delays. Rates to the US West Coast edged lower by 3% this week, according to online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos and as shown in the following chart. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said transpacific rates are now down by 30% from the peaks during July but remain several thousand dollars higher than what would be typical peak season rates. They are also about $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) higher than the adjusted floor set in April to account for diversions away from the Red Sea. “As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. PORT CONGESTION The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports lasted just three days, and market analysts initially expected backlogs created by the work stoppage to be cleared up in two to three weeks. Some ports, such as the Port of New York/New Jersey, were expecting to be back to normal sooner than that. But Levine said the backlog at the Port of Savannah, Georgia still needs another two weeks to get back to normal as Hurricane Milton added to the number of waiting vessels. Ships are waiting more than two days to get into Savannah, and Levine said other ports are citing delays of one to four days, which he termed as significant congestion, but not extreme. Port Tampa Bay remains closed and is expected to reopen on Monday after damage caused by Milton, which will mostly impact the fertilizer industry. Levine said that some carriers have announced blank sailing in response to the congestion, but this may also be aimed at reducing capacity to adjust for the lower, post-peak season volumes. Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page