LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at  ‘reinvention’ as a critical issue for the industry. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–In episode 18 of the ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast, ICIS global hydrogen editor Jake Stones is joined by Matthieu Boisson, managing director for CertifHy, a voluntary hydrogen certification company. Matthieu explains the impact of the European Commission’s “positive technical assessment” for RFNBO certifiers, as well as the commercial value hydrogen certificates could hold. Beyond this, Matthieu’s experience with companies seeking pre-certification sheds light on where Europe stands as a global market leader. Finally, the pair discuss whether there is interest in low-carbon hydrogen certification.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s crude oil imports in September totaled 45.5 million tonnes, down by 0.6% year on year and lower by 7.4% from the previous month, official data showed on Monday. For the first nine months of 2024, its total crude imports declined by 2.8% year on year to 412.4 million tonnes, according to China Customs data. The world’s second-largest economy is expected to see a 2.9% decrease on crude imports this year to 548 million tonnes as economic headwinds and rising penetration of electric and gas-powered vehicles drag fuel demand, ICIS principal analyst Patricia Tao said.

LONDON (ICIS)–Ahead of the 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference in Berlin on 7 November, Senior Analyst for Recycling Egor Dementev discusses the challenges and opportunities for both mechanical and chemical recycling with Annick Meerschman, Innovation Director at CEFIC. Topics covered include: Innovations driving plastic recycling in Europe Chemical recycling technology evolution Impact of legislation and regulation Challenges facing the recycling industry

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 11 October. Evonik plans major restructure of two business units as global competition intensifies German specialty group Evonik plans to restructure two of its business units, putting non-core assets up for sale, closure or partnerships. Hurricane Milton moves off Florida’s east coast with damaging winds, heavy rainfall Hurricane Milton is moving away from Florida’s east coast but is still producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall in the state, according to the latest update on Thursday. Fundamental change still potentially ahead for chemicals industry Massive overcapacity along some value chains is likely to drive further fundamental shifts in the global chemicals landscape, with differentiation and innovation key to remaining competitive. Europe chems market overdue for restructure – Brenntag chief The European chemicals market is overdue a “massive” restructuring, the CEO of Brenntag said on Tuesday, to create players that can withstand competitive pressures from companies in higher-growth markets. Europe MPG outlook downbeat, but potential de-icing demand brings some hope Europe’s mono propylene (MPG) spot market will likely remain subdued into early Q1 2025 against a tough macroeconomic backdrop.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 October. Vietnam Q3 economy grows 7.4% despite heavy typhoon losses By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Oct-24 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 7.4% year on year in the third quarter despite hefty losses from Typhoon Yagi, with growth marking its strongest in two years on robust exports. PODCAST: UAE base oils may see higher Q4 imports; US Group II offers keenly awaited By Damini Dabholkar 07-Oct-24 14:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The base oils market in UAE is likely to see an uptick in demand in the fourth quarter, with the impact of escalating tensions in the region on crude prices and Group I supply from Iran closely monitored in the weeks ahead. Asia MMA import trade to stay subdued amid weak buyer confidence By Jasmine Khoo 09-Oct-24 13:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The methyl methacrylate (MMA) spot trade in Asia is likely to stay curtailed in the near term. China ethanolamines dull post holidays while SE Asia and India struggle By Clive Ong 10-Oct-24 15:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ethanolamines market in China remained slow after the country’s Golden Week holidays. Demand remained tepid while domestic prices held steady. S Korea’s Hyundai Motor seeks to raise $3.3 billion from India IPO By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Oct-24 16:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Hyundai Motor’s subsidiary in India is seeking to raise up to won (W) 4.4 trillion ($3.3 billion) through an initial public offering (IPO) on 15 October. China Sept petrochemicals weaken; Oct demand pick-up unlikely By Yvonne Shi 11-Oct-24 12:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Falling costs of crude oil and weaker-than-expected seasonal end-demand caused China’s domestic petrochemical markets to weaken in September, with players expecting the current supply-demand imbalance to persist for the rest of the year. S Korea central bank cuts key interest rate to 3.25% amid slowing inflation By Jonathan Yee 11-Oct-24 17:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s central bank on Friday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% after holding rates for nearly two years, seeking to revitalize the economy amid moderating inflation.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Entering day two of post-hurricane activities and as the community of Tampa and surrounding cities attempt to clean up and dry out, the fertilizer industry is still assessing damage with flooding appearing to have had the biggest impact on production sites. Striking as a Category 3 hurricane late 9 October the storm brought intense and life-threatening conditions to a section of Florida that had already faced such a threat less than two weeks before. It particularly impacted the Tamp, Florida area, which is a key hub of the US fertilizer industry. Market sources, based in this region, said most of the focus on Friday was cleaning up and trying to determine how much damaged had been caused. The extent of impacts to fertilizer facilities were not fully clear but producer Mosaic did say it had some issues because of the storm but that once it had the full updates about Hurricane Milton’s impact on their facilities it would post on their website. As was the fear of environmentalists the gypstacks that are a fixture of phosphate production experienced problems with the water supporting the storage at the Mosaic Riverview facility having likely entered the Tampa Bay because of the extreme rainfall. “Back-to-back historic storms crossed our operational areas. Our sites withstood the conditions with few challenges. Our Riverview site, which has operated on Tampa Bay for the last century, received nearly 15 inches of rain during Hurricane Milton less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene,” said Mosaic. “A water collection system supporting our closed gypstack became overwhelmed, pushing excess water out a manhole on our property. At this time, we believe some of that impacted stormwater made its way to an outfall which discharges into Tampa Bay.” Mosaic said the issue was addressed on 10 October and is not continuing but added that the volume may have been greater than the 17,500-gallon reporting standard. “We expect water quality impacts, if any, to be modest. We’ve been in constant communication with regulators who are onsite today,” Mosaic said. Florida environmental authorities have not made any statement but ahead of the storm had said they were preparing and would have all resources available to oversee the regulated facilities and operations.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Corn production is forecasted to increase by 17 million bushels while soybean output is expected to decline by 4 million bushels, according to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). In the monthly update the agency said the current outlook for corn is for smaller supplies, larger exports and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are now 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production is now being forecasted at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million bushels from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to stand at 183.8 bushels/acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports, and with supply falling and use rising, the ending stocks have been reduced by 58 million bushels to 2 billion bushels. The October WASDE said the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10/bushel. For soybeans, the USDA is showing that production is now being forecasted at 4.6 billion bushels, which is down 4 million bushels and is based on expectations of lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.3 million acres. The monthly update reveal that soybean yield is now projected at 53.1 bushels/acre, down 0.1 bushels from the September update. As lower production is being partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks the USDA said supplies are lowered by 2 million bushels to stand at 4.9 billion bushels. With a slightly lower residual and no change to exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is unchanged at $10.80/bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 8 November.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continued to fall after a lengthy strike was averted at US Gulf and East Coast ports and as peak season volumes have largely been pulled forward. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike lasted just three days, and market analysts expect backlogs created by the work stoppage to be cleared up in two to three weeks, or even less at the Port of New York/New Jersey. Some ports extended gate hours to allow more time for containers to be delivered or picked up. Nathan Strang, the US Southwest director of ocean freight for Flexport, said the company is seeing relatively fluid terminal operations and railroad operations. Strang said all detentions and demurrage rules from the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) remain in effect but noted that time frames for detention and demurrage restarted on 7 October after the strike ended. CONTAINER RATES FALL Global average rates for shipping containers continued to fall, according to multiple analysts. Supply chain advisors Drewry has its World Container Index (WCI) at $3,349/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), which is down by 4% and shown in the following chart. Drewry said Shanghai to Los Angeles container rates fell by 5%, and Shanghai to New York rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following chart. Following the tentative deal between the ILA and the ports, Drewry expects rates ex-China to continue to decrease marginally in the coming weeks. Online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos said rates fell by a larger degree, but its rates had been higher. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said carriers are also planning to reduce deployed capacity on the transatlantic trade lane later in the month in the hope of preventing rates from falling back to the $1,600-1,800/FEU level they had maintained for much of the year. “With the strike over and peak season demand largely behind us from a significant pull forward of volumes in the last couple months, transpacific container rates should continue to ease on the seasonal lull in volumes between peak season and Lunar New Year,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES UNCHANGED US chemical tanker freight rates held steady again this week for most trade lanes, even though vessel demand is growing for some routes. Most rates from the major chemical hubs remain sideways as a good portion of the market were attending the European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin. The USG to Asia lane was also quiet following holidays. Although it is likely that increased exports ex–USG will be seen going into Europe and Asia, primarily as clean petroleum products (CPP) tonnage continues to focus on alternative cargoes in the petrochemical space, thereby adding to spot availability, which is already well supplied. On the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg is expected to warm up with cargoes being quoted including styrene to ARA from several US Gulf ports. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page