HOUSTON (ICIS)–The short-term reaction to 30% tariffs levied on imports from the EU and Mexico is likely to be the same wait-and-see approach taken after US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, according to a shipping industry analyst. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said he expects any and all non-urgent cargo orders to be put on hold from 1 August in the expectation, or hope, that these tariffs will again be reduced. “That will mean a short-term dip in cargo demand on all origins to the US,” Jensen said. Jensen noted that the letters being sent to nations describing the level of new tariffs will not be legally valid until an executive order or congressional action is taken. “What is presently legally binding is the executive order from Liberation Day outlining the original levels of reciprocal tariffs as well as the executive order pausing the implementation until 1 August,” Jensen said. And if the new tariff levels take effect and persist, Jensen said many US importers will have little choice but to resume importing their goods and pay the tariffs. “This will mean demand will be at a level roughly around or slightly below the minimum level of import volumes necessary to meet demand in the US and we might see more of a drawdown on inventories,” Jensen said. The trade war has already had an impact on volumes. Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), a unit of China’s container shipping major Cosco, said global volumes were up by 4.4% in the second quarter. But Jensen noted underlying data that showed Pacific volumes down by 4.3% and Atlantic volumes up by 20.5%. Meanwhile, rates for containers from east Asia and China to the US continue to fall on low demand and as front-loading during the tariff pause is ending. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 11 July. INSIGHT: Further cracker rationalization could threaten Germany’s ethylene derivative operations The evolving European cracker landscape could have far more wide-ranging repercussions on ethylene consumption in the region than is immediately visible. Derivative units, especially those in Germany’s Ruhr area, that rely on the pipeline network connecting industrial hubs in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands are particularly vulnerable/at risk. IPEX: Index rises in June as Middle East tensions drive upstream costs higher The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) for June was up across all regions, not least northeast Asia and the US Gulf, as growing tensions between Israel and Iran pushed crude oil costs higher and raised concerns about supply levels. INSIGHT: Dow, Vynova close plants as Europe crisis deepens; EU unveils action plan for chemicals In the same week that Dow and Vynova announced major capacity closures, signalling the next step in Europe’s chemical industry crisis, the European Commission has unveiled an action plan to tackle the region’s competitiveness problem. But time is running out. Vynova to close Beek PVC plant by November 2025 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer Vynova has announced the closure of its plant in Beek, the Netherlands, by November 2025, according to a company statement. Dow to close three Europe plants, cut 800 jobs, as asset review progresses Dow is moving ahead with the closure of three plants in Europe with the loss of 800 jobs as it progresses a review of regional assets announced in April 2025.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The EU and Indonesia are pursuing a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) amid continued uncertainties over US tariffs. The deal is expected to be concluded in September, Indonesia’s chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto said in a post on social media platform X on Monday. “The CEPA negotiation process has currently reached the stage of finalizing technical issues, fine-tuning, and developing a more detailed timeline to achieve the ratification stage,” he added. The European bloc consisting of 27 countries, and southeast Asia’s biggest economy have “reached a political agreement to advance the trade agreement,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 13 July. Businesses active in agriculture, automotive, and services will “massively benefit from it”, she said. The free trade agreement (FTA) will also “help strengthen the supply chains of critical raw materials, essential for Europe’s clean tech and steel industry”, von der Leyen said. The EU and Indonesia officially launched negotiations for a CEPA in July 2016. “For Indonesia, CEPA is not only about trade, it is about fairness, respect, and building a strong future together,” Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said in the statement issued by the Commission. “The agreement must support our efforts to grow our industries, create jobs, and strengthen our sustainable development goals. We are ready to finalize it soon, in a way that benefits both our peoples.” The EU is Indonesia’s fifth-largest trading partner with bilateral trade between them reaching $30.1 billion in 2024, according to data by the European Commission. The EU has separate bilateral FTAs with Singapore and Vietnam among ASEAN countries, which took effect in November 2019 and August 2020, respectively. Talks to relaunch negotiations with Thailand were announced in March 2023, while negotiations with the Philippines resumed in March 2024. Visit our Topic Page: Tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail image: Container port activities in Jakarta, Indonesia – 09 July 2025 (BAGUS INDAHONO/EPA/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.3% year on year in Q2 2025, accelerating from the 4.1% expansion in Q1, but significant global economic uncertainty persists in the second half, driven by unclear US tariff policies, official preliminary data showed on Monday. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, Singapore’s GDP expanded by 1.4% in the second quarter, reversing the 0.5% contraction Q1 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement. For the first half of 2025, the annual average GDP growth was 4.2%. Full-year 2024 growth was 4.4%. “There remain significant uncertainty and downside risks in the global economy in the second half of 2025 given the lack of clarity over the tariff policies of the US,” MTI said. Singapore’s manufacturing sector grew by 5.5% year on year in Q2 2025, faster than the 4.4% expansion in the previous quarter. “Growth was driven by output expansions across all clusters, except for the chemicals and general manufacturing clusters,” the MTI added. The MTI in April this year lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0-2%, from 1-3% previously, mainly due to the anticipated impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Trump administration began issuing tariff letters to several countries last week, with higher tariffs set to take effect from 1 August. Singapore is a leading petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Aster Chemicals & Energy, based at its Jurong Island hub. Visit our Topic Page: Tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 July. Asia petrochemical shares little changed ahead of US tariffs deadline By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Jul-25 11:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical shares were little changed on Monday as economies in the region work out separate deals with the US, whose 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs expires on 9 July. Vietnam Q2 GDP growth rises to 7.96% on export front-loading By Jonathan Yee 07-Jul-25 17:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy surged to 7.96% year on year in the second quarter of 2025 amid front-loading of exports, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO) in a report on 7 July. S Korea benzene bound for US hit by 25% tariff; producers weigh options By Angeline Soh 08-Jul-25 11:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea-based benzene producers awoke to news that the US had imposed a 25% tariff rate on imports from South Korea starting 1 August, with mixed reactions from buyers and sellers. S Korea, Japan PX bound for US hit by 25% tariff; supply to stay within Asia By Samuel Wong 08-Jul-25 14:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea and Japan paraxylene trade flows are likely to see limited impact from the imposition of a 25% tariff by the US for imports from both countries. INSIGHT: Europe ammonia to rise 7% through to Jan on snug supply, Mideast tensions By Bee Lin Chow 08-Jul-25 14:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Europe’s import prices of ammonia are forecast to rise continually from July 2025 to peak in January 2026 given snug supply and the ongoing Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions keeping feedstock natural gas prices elevated. India PVC sentiment softens amid BIS extension, ample Chinese supply By Aswin Kondapally 08-Jul-25 15:10 MUMBAI (ICIS)–Sentiment in India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is likely to remain subdued in the near term, as sluggish seasonal demand coincides with improved supply from China following the extension of the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) implementation deadline. NE Asia acetic acid spot trades jump on Japan plant hiccup By Hwee Hwee Tan 09-Jul-25 15:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Intra-northeast Asia acetic acid trade flows are expanding into July, buoyed by a longer than expected plant turnaround. PODCAST: Asia methanol supply normalizes, uncertainty over demand remains By Damini Dabholkar 09-Jul-25 22:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian methanol prices have experienced significant volatility over recent weeks, on geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. While most production returned to normal in early July, some questions still remain around demand, both in India and the rest of Asia. PODCAST: US tariffs impact on C2, C3 gradual, starting with finished goods By Damini Dabholkar 10-Jul-25 16:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Trade tensions have been in focus for the wider petrochemical markets since US Liberation Day tariffs were announced. In this podcast, propylene editor Julia Tan speaks with ethylene editor Josh Quah to examine how recent tariff developments have impacted the Asian olefins market. Arkema targets 5-10% annual growth in Asia; to ramp up capex – CEO By Jonathan Yee 10-Jul-25 18:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–France-based specialty chemicals firm Arkema is intensifying its focus on Asia as a cornerstone of its growth strategy, with the region already contributing 25% of its total sales, company chairman and CEO Thierry Le Henaff told ICIS. INSIGHT: New US 1 August tariff deadline tightens squeeze on Asia trade deals By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Jul-25 10:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Pacific economies are facing intensified pressure to finalize trade agreements following a last-minute extension of US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs to 1 August.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US fell again this week as demand has fallen after a brief period of front loading during a pause in tariffs. With this week’s decreases, rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have fallen by more than 50% over the past month, and rates from Shanghai to New York have fallen by more than 33% over the same time, as shown in the following chart from supply chain advisors Drewry. Rates from China to the US West Coast have fallen faster than on other trade lanes because of the surge in shipping capacity once the Trump administration put a pause on extremely high tariffs on goods from China. But average spot rates from Asia to the US East Coast are likely to fall faster than rates to the West Coast and could be within $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) by the end of July as carriers stop adding capacity to the transpacific trade lane. Average global rates continue to trend lower, falling by 5% week on week as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Drewry expects spot rates to continue to decline next week as well due to excess capacity and weak demand. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also showed significant decreases to both US coasts. Rates to the West Coast are around $3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) while rates to the East Coast are around $5,000. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said during a webinar this week that there remains a lot of uncertainty in ocean freight, especially since US President Donald Trump extended the tariff deadline to 1 August. “This three-week extension for reciprocal tariffs could mean that importers from those impacted countries will resume shipping activities that maybe they are already getting ready to pause if tariff hikes had materialized this week,” Levine said. “But this short run by only three weeks until August does not really make it possible to move goods from Asia in time.” Levine said that carriers canceled general rate increases (GRIs) for July and have mostly suspended or reduced peak season surcharges also aimed at July volumes. Levine said some carriers have already begun to remove capacity from the trade lane in efforts to stop the rate deterioration. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES UNCHANGED US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady this week with rates holding steady despite continuing to face downward pressure on several trade lanes. There is a downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode. Besides contract cargoes, there is very little seen in the market. The tariffs and looming uncertainty continue to dampen the spot market, pressuring rates. The usual spot cargoes of methanol from Jose to China are the only ones reported, leaving methanol requirements from the region active to Asia. For the time being, larger parcels seem to have found a floor in the $60/tonne range. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA and all other trade lanes also held steady. The previous uptick in activity which resulted from the recent Israel/Iran hostilities appears to have calmed and the market to Europe fell flat. As a result, this route remained quiet this week, which has placed downward pressure on freight rates. There have only been a few cargos fixed, a few more outsiders have come on berth and are working to fill space which has led to more competition for regular owners. MTBE, methanol and caustic soda are the most frequently reported in the market. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane remains unusually quiet and in turn rates seem to have softened. Although availability for prompt space seems to be somewhat tight but there is plenty of open space for mid-July into August. The USG to India route has not seen an uptick in inquiries over the last week with no confirmed fixtures. There was only one new inquiry seen for 8,000-9,000 tonnes Pascagoula/Mumbai for August dates. Along with the other regions, freight rates are widely viewed as softer. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report that the outlook for corn is for lower production and ending stocks, while soybeans will have slightly reduced production and exports but have increased ending stocks. For the corn crop beginning stocks are decreased by 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion bushels, which the agency said reflects an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use. Feed and residual use is down 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the 30 June grain stocks report. Exports have been raised by 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production is projected down by 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the 30 June acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies, and with supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel. For soybeans, the July WASDE shows slightly lower production, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from last month on lower harvested acres and an unchanged yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. Exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels on higher domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end of September during the US peak export season. With lower soybean exports partly offset by higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. The US season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The next WASDE report will be released on 12 August.

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating the hydrogen economy, after a spate of recent industry setbacks including steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal’s cancellation of its renewable hydrogen-based decarbonisation plans for two steel plants. A spokesperson for the ministry told ICIS on 3 July that BMWE regrets ArcelorMittal’s cancellation but stressed that it was a private sector decision and that none of the €1.3 billion government subsidy secured for the project has been disbursed. They reiterated the ministry’s support for other major steel decarbonisation projects by Salzgitter, Thyssenkrupp, and SHS, which have collectively secured €5.6 billion in funding. “Reducing electricity prices in the short term is key for companies”, the spokesperson added, welcoming the European Commission’s recent adoption of the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, which provides the possibility to “reduce electricity prices for energy-intensive industries”. Since ArcelorMittal’s announcement, EWE, LEAG and E.ON have all confirmed to ICIS the postponement or cancellation of German projects totalling 80MW capacity of hydrogen production. However, the BMWE remains committed to the “swift implementation” of national and European regulations to enable the growth of the hydrogen industry. The spokesperson stated that “the development of a hydrogen economy is to be accelerated and organised more pragmatically”, using “all colours” of hydrogen, while transitioning to renewable hydrogen in the long-term. Hydrogen infrastructure expansion, including connections to all German and European ports, remains important. To improve the competitive conditions of the economy, the ministry wants to “abolish unnecessary bureaucracy (e.g. Supply Chain Act)” and “simplify planning and approval procedures”. The Supply Chain Act, which entered into force in 2023, requires companies to exercise due diligence to prevent or address human rights and environmental violations within their supply chains, but has been criticized for the administrative and cost burden on companies. The BMWE has recently made moves to simplify hydrogen bureaucracy. On 7 July, it published a draft bill for the hydrogen acceleration act, which aims to “significantly accelerate the market ramp-up of hydrogen (…) by establishing fast, simplified, and coordinated approval procedures with clear specifications and deadlines”. As part of the bill, hydrogen projects will be deemed to be of “overriding public interest”, which will give them priority in regulatory and legal balancing decisions. The spokesperson told ICIS that the status of the hydrogen ramp-up will be reviewed as a basis for further work addressing the country’s energy supply security.

LONDON (ICIS)–Covestro has downgraded its outlook for 2025 due to an ongoing weak global economy with no signs of a short-term recovery, it said on Friday. The Germany-headquartered polymers producer cut its forecast for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), as well as two other key financial metrics. Covestro outlined its revisions in a statement released ahead of its second-quarter earnings, due to be published on 31 July. The company’s adjusted forecast is as follows: EBITDA is expected to be between €700 million and €1.1 billion. The previous forecast projected EBITDA between €1.0 billion and €1.4 billion. Free operating cash flow (FOCF) is expected to be between €-400 million and €+100 million. The previous forecast projected FOCF between €0 million and €300 million. Return on capital employed over weighted average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) is expected to be between -9 and -5 percentage points. The previous forecast projected ROCE over WACC between -6 and -3 percentage points. Preliminary EBITDA for the second quarter amounted to €270 million, within the forecast range €200 million-€300 million, Covestro said. The producer’s first quarter EBITDA halved year on year though was at the upper end of its forecast.