SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in May fell by 17.8% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 968 million ($756 million), weighing down on overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX), official data showed on Tuesday. The country’s NODX for the month fell by 3.5% year on year to S$13.7 billion, reversing the 12.4% growth posted in April, data released by Enterprise Singapore showed. Non-electronic NODX – which includes chemicals and pharmaceuticals fell by 5.3% year on year to S$10 billion in May, reversing the 9.3% growth in April. Overall NODX to six of Singapore’s top 10 trade partners declined in May 2025, with falls in shipments to the US, Thailand, and Malaysia, while those to Taiwan, Indonesia, South Korea, and Hong Kong increased. Singapore is a leading petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Aster Chemicals & Energy, based at its Jurong Island hub. ($1 = S$1.28)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Arrivals of container ships at the busy US West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA/LB) are slowly returning to normal after the trade war between the US and China slowed cargo movement between the two nations, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC). Kip Louttit, MESC executive director, said the registration process for vessels bound for LA/LB projects a slight uptick in the coming two weeks. Container ships on the way to LA/LB averaged 58.9/day in January, which fell to 47.2/day in May amid trade tensions between the US and China. The average has climbed to 51.8/day over the first 14 days of June, and 52.1/day over the past 17 days. “This is an indicator of a slight increase in ship arrivals over next 1-2 weeks,” Louttit said. Louttit said there are 17 container ships scheduled to arrive at the twin ports over the next three days, which is normal. Container ships at berth at the ports of LA/LB dipped from an average of 19.4/day in April to 15.6/day in May. The average was 12.3/day over the first six days of June but jumped to 15.1/day for all 14 days in June, with 21 at berth on Friday and 14 at berth on Saturday. Maritime information specialists at MESC said there are 49 container ships “blank sailing” that will skip Los Angeles or Long Beach through 1 August, which is two more than the previous week. Blank sailings are when an ocean carrier cancels or skips a scheduled port call or region in the middle of a fixed rotation, typically to control capacity. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said capacity is returning to the transpacific trade – up 28% since mid-May – as carriers react to shippers rushing cargo during the 90-day window of lower tariffs. “This increased capacity and a slowing in the cargo rush should see a return of the downward pressure on spot rates we saw during Q1 prior to the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” Sand said. Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US are at 10-month highs. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Colombia’s plastics industry is managing to navigate through a turbulent period for the country’s macroeconomics and growing at over 3%, but the cabinet’s fiscal issues and intensifying Chinese imports pose risks, according to the president of trade group Acoplasticos. Daniel Mitchell added plastics in Colombia can consider themselves lucky as growth over 3% exceeds that of the wider manufacturing sectors as well as the overall growth in the country. Mitchell said that, while imports into Colombia continue at pace, the country’s exports have showed particularly strong momentum in the plastic chain – according to Acoplasticos, plastic product exports rose 7% while plastic materials exports surged 15%, effectively compensating for weaker domestic market conditions. Acoplasticos represents the entire plastics value chain, though maintains primary focus on manufacturing rather than commercial distribution activities. FISCAL POLICY ADDS UNCERTAINTY Last week, the Colombian government activated an ‘escape clause’ to the so-called fiscal rule, a clause normally only used in emergencies or calamities, the last time being the pandemic. On this occasion, there is not an emergency per se, but the cabinet is decided to go through with its intention to increase spending ahead of the election. Left-leaning President Gustavo Petro’s electoral program was clear in its aim to expand the welfare state, but as Petro’s term nears its end, that higher spending has been financed with debt rather than regular, tax-led higher income. Activating the escape clause and practically dismantling the rules which had made Colombia a relatively stable economy in Latin America in the past few years will add pressure to investors who are wary of unstable macroeconomics. Chemicals sources said to ICIS last week the measure could increase borrowing costs, as both public and private borrowing became harder due to investors’ distrust of loose fiscal policies. Industry leaders are showing the same concerns. Last week, the main industrial trade group Andi – in which chemicals is represented as well – said nascent, growing investments in Colombia could now be put on hold due to the uncertainty, and Acoplasticos joins that. “We are quite concerned. There are three elements that have come together: the cabinet recently increased withholding tax rates, requiring companies to pay higher advance portions of next year’s income tax during the current year. This provides the government with additional, immediate cash flow – but it reduces available resources for the following year: it’s short-termism in a fiscal maneuver which could have profound medium-term consequences,” said Mitchell. “Additionally, the government has indeed activated the ‘escape clause’ for the fiscal rule, effectively allowing breach of established fiscal discipline mechanisms. This decision permits higher government borrowing and increased fiscal deficits, enabling expanded current spending without regard for future fiscal sustainability. “Finally, the third concerning element involves publication of the medium-term fiscal framework, outlining public finance perspectives over the coming years. To add to the previous woes, most analysts think this framework reflects a concerning ‘spend today and don’t think much about what will happen tomorrow or in future years’ approach, which greatly undermines confidence in fiscal responsibility,” said Mitchell. These fiscal policy decisions carry significant repercussions for Colombia’s financial standing and broader economic stability, Mitchell went on to say, and the deteriorating fiscal outlook is almost certain to increase the country risk premiums, which in turn can lead to higher interest rates for public debt and reducing fiscal space for future policy responses. There are widespread concerns among Colombia economic heads that if the government insists on a looser fiscal policy, credit rating agencies could move to downgrade the sovereign rating, making it more expensive for Colombia to go out to global markets to issue debt. “There is a risk that credit rating agencies will review Colombia’s rating and possibly remove our investment grade status and downgrade us in their categories. This scenario would further increase interest rates and limit government borrowing capacity while constraining private sector access to international financing,” said Mitchell. Fiscal discipline – or the appearance of it – is so important and is so absent in Colombia currently that there are concerns the deterioration in the public finances will almost inevitably and quickly depreciate the Colombian peso’s exchange rate, in turn making imports more expensive. This all will be an issue for Colombia’s central bank, who was meant to continue lowering interest rates as the peak of the inflation crisis has been left behind. But the new scenario of rising imports due to the lower peso, sooner or later filtering down to the consumer in the shops, could put a span in the works of monetary policy easing. “Obviously, by maintaining or not being able to reduce interest rates, this affects economic growth, affects investment prospects, buying machinery, buying appliances, buying automobiles, buying housing, which are sectors tied to the chemical sector, to the plastics sector,” said Mitchell. “Currency dynamics present mixed implications for plastics: a depreciated peso increases raw material costs for domestic producers reliant on imported inputs, though it benefits exporters by making their products more competitive in international markets. But, overall, I think currency weakness generally pressures the industrial sector downwards, while economic deceleration reduces domestic consumption.” CHINA As well as domestic issues for companies, chemicals and plastics imports from Asia, the Middle East, or the US, continue to present Colombia and the wider Latin America with a near-existential crisis. With lower production costs – via actual lower costs or via heavy subsidies to keep its citizens employed – China is now dumping its excess product in practically all industrial sectors, and chemicals and polymers have been at the center of it. Far from easing, China seems to be sending product at yet more competitive prices, and the competitive pressure continues escalating, gradually but persistently, across most plastic product segments. Mitchell said that while some categories like packaging containers face limited import competition due to transportation economics, virtually all other tradeable plastic products encounter Chinese competition at prices significantly below domestic production costs. Colombia’s approach to addressing unfair trade practices maintains a case-by-case methodology rather than implementing broad protective measures such as higher import tariffs. The Ministry of Commerce investigates specific complaints regarding antidumping violations and safeguard measures, with mixed results depending on individual case merits. Recent examples include a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) antidumping complaint filed two years ago that was rejected by the government, while a current antidumping case regarding plastic films remains under review. “These cases reflect ongoing industry efforts to address unfair competition, though without systematic government support for broad protective measures – it has ruled in favor in some cases, it has ruled against in others,” said Mitchell. OPEN ELECTON ALSO ADDS TO UNCERTAINTY As Colombia approaches a critical electoral period with congressional elections scheduled for March 2026 and presidential elections in May, the political uncertainty seems to grow rather than narrowing the option as the election gets closer. President Petro’s approval ratings hover around 30%, suggesting his party will face electoral vulnerability for the presidential election, as Colombia’s second-round presidential system requires majority support exceeding 50% in the first round, or a final round between the two most voted candidates in the first round. However, political dynamics remain highly uncertain with numerous potential candidates and no clear front runner emerging. To add to the uncertainty, Colombians are still reeling from the terrorist attack a week ago witnessed on national television against one of the presidential candidates, right-leaning Miguel Uribe, who remains in hospital in critical condition. Opinion polls would suggest Petro’s time in politics may be approaching its end, but Mitchell reminded a few months in politics can feel much longer, and more so in a very fluid electoral landscape in which there is no clear favorite yet, with several candidates polling at the low double-digits. The second and final round seems more open than ever. “When you look at the government’s popularity indices, the logic is that no [they will not revalidate their mandate]. Because his popularity is around 30%, which is not a majority. But obviously everything is very uncertain at this moment, and the truth is that there are many candidates,” he concluded. This interview took place over the phone on 13 June. Front page picture source: Acoplasticos Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 13 June. Brazilian court orders end to six-month customs auditors’ strike A Brazilian judge has ordered customs workers to end their nearly seven-month strike after the government argued the industrial action was causing financial harm as goods pile up at ports and customs facilities across the country. SHIPPING: May container ship arrivals fall at US ports of LA, LB, but on the uptick in June Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. INSIGHT: Chems need more than cost cutting during multi-year slump Chemical companies can find more ways to grow profits beyond cost cutting as they enter another year of slow economic growth in the longest downturn in years. UPDATE: US chem shares sell off amid Israel, Iran attacks US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply on Friday and performed worse than the overall market following the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at CEO concerns over tariff and trade wars. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s DCM Shriram plans to acquire specialty chemicals producer Hindusthan Specialty Chemicals Ltd (HSCL) for Indian rupees (Rs) 3.75 billion ($44 million). “This move positions DCM Shriram for strategic expansion into the advanced materials segment, unlocking synergies with its existing chemicals portfolio,” the company said in a disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 12 June. The acquisition of HSCL is expected to be completed by September, it added. HSCL has a facility at Jhagadia in the western Gujarat state which is located close to DCM Shriram’s existing chemicals complex. This will allow for quick integration and growth, DCM said. Apart from a 17,000 tonne/year liquid epoxy resin unit, HSCL also produces reactive diluents, hardeners, formulated resins and other products used in the aerospace, electronics, renewable energy, electric vehicles and defence sectors at the site. “This acquisition is a pivotal step in our chemicals growth strategy and a catalyst for DCM Shriram’s entry into advanced materials, which offers robust forward integration with our chlor-alkali platform, while positioning us at the intersection of India’s expanding presence in sunrise sectors like renewables, mobility, and aerospace,” DCM Shriram chairman and managing director Ajay Shriram said. DCM Shriram is a chlor-alkali producer in India with a combined production capacity of nearly 1 million tonnes/year at Jhagadia in Gujarat, and Kota in Rajasthan. In February 2024, the company had announced plans to invest Rs10 billion to set up a greenfield epoxy resins manufacturing plant. Separately, the company expects to begin operations at its 51,000 tonne/year epichlorohydrin (ECH) plant soon, a company source said. “The commissioning of the ECH plant has been delayed due to an issue in one of the equipment and was addressed by our technology suppliers,” he said. The ECH plant will be commissioned in phases, with the first phase of operations expected to begin this month, the company source said. ($1 = Rs86.05)

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 13 June. ESA ’25: Global sulphuric acid market seeking clarity on H2 supply securityOffer pricing remains stable-to-firm across the global sulphuric acid market as Q2 nears its end – although market players’ views are sharply divided on the supply outlook for the second half of 2025. Europe PS and EPS markets face long supply as demand remains stableEuropean polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS) markets are navigating a landscape characterized by long supply conditions and stable demand, which is expected to continue unchanged into Q3. Verbio to start up renewable chemicals plant next yearVerbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction in Germany is expected to start up in 2026, a company official told ICIS. Europe June epoxy stable to soft; summer could weigh on pricesEurope epoxy resins price discussions have been relatively stable for June so far,  but with some softening here and there, with ongoing margin challenges counterbalanced by subdued fundamentals. European jet fuel prices extend gains as demand recovers, capping supply dragEuropean jet fuel prices extended gains in the week to 11 June in response to a pick up in buying interest as seasonal demand gets underway. Markets slump, oil soars in wake of Iran strikesEurope chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s missile strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The global petrochemical industry is already battling a deep, structural downturn. While we’ve seen no impact on already dire polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) margins in northeast and southeast Asia from the trade war, the Israel-Iran crisis presents a new set of risks for polyolefins and all the other products. Today, I want to share a first pass at three headline scenarios for how this latest crisis could impact the global economy, and by extension, petrochemicals – Scenario 1: The Best-Case – De-escalation and Containment. International mediation leads to a swift reduction in direct confrontation. Retaliatory actions are limited, avoiding critical infrastructure. Diplomatic channels resume, potentially reigniting broader regional security talks. Oil Prices: Rapid return to pre-crisis levels; spikes short-lived. Inflation: Minimal sustained impact; stable energy costs. Supply Chains: Minor, localised disruptions; vital Strait of Hormuz remains secure. Investment: Quick rebound in confidence; risk assets recover. Scenario 2: The Medium-Case – Protracted Tensions and Proxy Conflicts Averted full-scale direct war, but high tensions persist. The region sees intensified “shadow wars” and proxy conflicts. Occasional targeted strikes or cyberattacks, but no full escalation. Diplomatic efforts are slow and largely ineffective. Oil Prices: Elevated and volatile due to persistent geopolitical risk. Inflation: Sustained upward pressure as higher energy costs feed into all sectors. Supply Chains: Increased shipping insurance, minor rerouting; higher logistics costs. Investment: Increased risk aversion; volatile equity markets; flight to safe havens. Scenario 3: The Worst-Case – Full-Scale Regional War & Strait of Hormuz Closure Direct military conflict spirals out of control, potentially drawing in other global powers. Iran close or severely disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Prices: Big surge to long-term historic highs. Inflation: Hyperinflationary pressures globally; severe cost-of-living crisis. Supply Chains: Widespread and severe paralysis of global trade; blockades, severe shortages. Global Recession/Depression: High probability of a severe global economic downturn. Financial Markets: Extreme volatility; sharp declines; systemic crisis risk. Conclusion: Understanding scenarios is crucial for strategic planning. Even “medium” level tensions will have significant, widespread consequences. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 13 June 2025. Asia-Europe VAM trade expansion driven by outages, US tariffs By Hwee Hwee Tan 13-Jun-25 15:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vinyl acetate monomer exports from Asia to Europe are on track for expansion during the second quarter, spurred by a push among traders to take positions before a regulatory quota waiving duties for imports into Europe is exhausted. Crude climbs more than 8% after Israeli strikes against targets in Iran By James Dennis 13-Jun-25 12:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Crude prices surged, with Brent peaking nearly $9/barrel higher early on Friday, after Israel attacked targets in Iran, raising fears of a major escalation in conflict in the Middle East and resultant disruptions to crude production and exports from that region. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. Asia crude glycerine offers fall as downstream ECH weakens in China By Helen Yan 12-Jun-25 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Offers for crude glycerine in Asia declined, weighed down by weakness in downstream epichlorohydrin (ECH) market and bearish sentiment. ICIS China Petrochemical Price index May average falls on weak demand By Yvonne Shi 11-Jun-25 13:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s average petrochemical prices in May eased by 0.62% month on month as easing trade war concerns was offset by continued weakness in demand. Indian refineries plan green hydrogen projects worth Rs2 trillion By Priya Jestin 11-Jun-25 12:24 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. China vessel age limit stalls prompt trades with India By Hwee Hwee Tan 11-Jun-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Prompt chemical tanker supply on China’s southbound trade lanes is expected to shrink following regulatory restrictions, constraining spot trades especially with India. INSIGHT: Hydrogen unlocking China’s cement decarbonization potential By Patricia Tao 10-Jun-25 17:58 As China steps up efforts to meet its dual carbon targets, hydrogen is becoming a practical and strategic tool to cut emissions from the country’s highly carbon-intensive cement industry. INSIGHT: Countdown to China benzene futures debut: how will it affect the market? By Jenny Yi 10-Jun-25 17:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–On 14 May, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) issued a notice to solicit public opinions on proposed futures and options contracts for benzene along with the relevant rules. The deadline for feedback was 21 May 2025, marking the countdown to the launch of benzene futures and options in China. China’s US exports to rebound on front-loading before Aug By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Jun-25 13:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s exports to the US are expected to rebound in June as exporters ramp up frontloading efforts before the 90-day trade truce between the two global economic superpowers expires in August. Asia, Mideast petrochemical markets brace for tough summer By Jonathan Yee 09-Jun-25 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tariff concerns and ample supply continue to exert pressure on petrochemical markets in both Asia and the Middle East, with regional demand staying weak, with consumption in India unlikely to pick up until September. INSIGHT: China polyester sector sees production cuts; tight supply boosts PTA/MEG By Cindy Qiu 09-Jun-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyester producers are facing mounting cost pressure, as domestic purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices reaped large gains after the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May 2025) on the back of tight supply.