SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for China, India and other developing Asian economies following latest escalation in US-led trade war. For China, the forecast growth was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously, representing a sharp deceleration from the pace of expansion in 2024, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on 22 April. Last year, the world’s second-biggest economy expanded by 5.0%, in line with the Chinese government’s target. “This reflects the impact of recently implemented tariffs, which offset the stronger carryover from 2024 (as a result of a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter) and fiscal expansion in the budget,” the IMF said. China’s growth in 2026 was also revised down to 4.0% from 4.5% previously “the back of prolonged trade policy uncertainty and the tariffs now in place”. India’s GDP growth this year is also expected to come in lower, at 6.2%, down from the previous forecast of 6.5%, on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty, the IMF said. The south Asian giant’s 2025 growth, nonetheless, remains comparatively higher than the rest of the region, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, it added. For emerging and developing Asia, growth is expected to decline further to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, after a marked slowdown in 2024. “Emerging and developing Asia, particularly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, has been among the most affected by the April tariffs,” the IMF said. Growth for the ASEAN-5 – which consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand – for 2025 was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously. In the near term – under a reference forecast which includes tariff announcements between 1 February and 4 April by the US and countermeasures by other countries – global growth is projected to slow down to 2.8% in 2025 (from 3.3% in 2024) before accelerating to 3.0% in 2026. “Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth, he said. “Growth prospects could, however, immediately improve if countries ease their current trade policy stance and forge new trade agreements. “Addressing domestic imbalances can, over a period of years, offset economic risks and raise global output while contributing significantly to closing external imbalances…It also means boosting support for domestic demand in China, and stepping up fiscal consolidation in the United States,” Gourinchas said. Thumbnail image shows IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaking at a press briefing (Source: Xinhua/Shutterstock) Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascend Performance Materials was already reeling from overcapacity in China and an industrial recession when its main complex caught on fire and a freeze shut down its operations in Texas – events that contributed to the bankruptcy of the nylon 6,6 producer. Ascend Performance Materials filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 on Monday. The filing will allow Ascend to continue operations and protect it from creditor lawsuits while it reorganizes its finances. Ascend already has support from its lenders, and it expects to emerge from bankruptcy protection in six months. NYLON MARKET ALREADY STRUGGLING WITH OVERCAPACITYJohn Rogers, an analyst at Moody’s Ratings, noted how the entrance of China caused fundamental changes to the nylon market. “The issue for Ascend was the increased capacity in China by established western producers and domestic companies along with the ability of Chinese producers to now produce [adiponitrile] and [hexamethylene diamine], two key intermediates that have sustained Ascend’s margins during prior downturns.” Over the past six years, Chinese production capacity for chemical intermediates has grown by 93%, and downstream production by 64%, said Robert Del Genio, Ascend’s chief restructuring officer. He made his comments in court documents. Many of these new market entrants from China sought to gain market share by selling at a cash loss or pursuant to subsidies from the Chinese government, Del Genio said. Ascend was faced with grim choices. It could cut prices or lose customers to these new entrants. Meanwhile, a prolonged recession has struck manufacturing, a key end market for the nylon produced by Ascend. Many of the company’s key end markets have been slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels of production because of destocking, inflation, labor shortages and supply-chain issues, Del Genio said. Weak demand has caused prices for nylon 6,6 to fall and Ascend’s EBITDA margin to approach its lowest level in almost a decade, Del Genio said. For chemical intermediates, long-term take-or-pay contracts signed when times were good have turned into money losers under these tougher economic conditions. Ascend was forced to sell at a loss under these contracts. CLOSURE OF BARGE CHAMBER ADDS MORE EXPENSESAscend’s main inland barge chamber at Wilson Lock had been closed after cracks were discovered in the lock gates in September 2024, Del Genio said. Wilson Lock is the only way that barge shipments can enter and leave the company’s operations in Decatur, Alabama, Del Genio said. With Wilson Lock shut down, the Decatur site has had to rely on trucks to ship acrylonitrile (ACN) from Texas and to move adiponitrile (ADN) to Pensacola. “The use of a trucking alternative has had a $4 million impact on the company’s first two quarters of financials in 2025 in addition to significantly increasing transit times,” Del Genio said. Trucking also added delays, which left Ascend’s Decatur and Pensacola operations vulnerable to disruptions, Del Genio said. To prevent this, Ascend bought ACN and ADN from third parties at a premium, adding an additional $4 million in expenses. FIRE, FREEZE PROVE TOO MUCHIn December 2024, a fire started at Ascend’s main nylon complex in Pensacola, Florida, which disrupted operations until the middle of February 2025, Del Genio said. The fire cost Ascend $6 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). About a month after the fire, sub-freezing temperatures hit Texas, where Ascend makes hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and ACN at its complex in Chocolate Bayou, Del Genio said. As a proactive step, Ascend shut down its operations at Chocolate Bayou to prevent mechanical failure and threats to the environment. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou led to a cascade of side effects. Ascend’s operations in Decatur, Alabama, needed the ACN from Chocolate Bayou to continue running, Del Genio said. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou forced Ascend to buy ACN on the open market so it could keep Decatur running. Those purchases further depleted the company’s cash reserves. Overall, the closures of Chocolate Bayou, Pensacola and Wilson Lock lowered Ascends Q1 EBITDA by $21 million, Del Genio said. HEADING TOWARDS BANKRUPTCYIn response to a worsening liquidity crisis, Ascend increased its vendor payment deferrals. By late February, the company’s past-due accounts-payable wall exceeded $110 million. Vendors responded by demanding cash in advance, tightening payment terms, threatening to remove rental equipment and freezing supplies of goods and services. The company was approaching a breaking point. Ascend owed money to companies that provided critical goods and services. If these companies cut off Ascend, it could bring the company’s plants to a halt. Ascend arranged bridge loan financing that gave the company enough time to file for bankruptcy protection in US District Court, Texas Southern District. The case number is 25-90127. (Thumbnail shows nylon. Image by Shutterstock)

LONDON (ICIS)–TotalEnergies will turn off its oldest steam cracker in Antwerp, Belgium by the end of 2027, the producer announced on Tuesday. The decision to stop production was taken in the face of overcapacity in the petrochemicals industry, with significant length expected in the European ethylene market, the company said. TotalEnergies operates two crackers at its Antwerp site, and will close the one that is not integrated with its downstream polymer production. The cracker had historically been dependent on a major contract with a third-party user for offtake of the ethylene it produced, but the buyer decided not to renew its purchase agreement by the end of 2027. The integrated steam cracker will continue to run, with ethylene produced used entirely by TotalEnergies industrial units in Antwerp and Feluy, Belgium. The move to close the cracker will impact 253 employees, but TotalEnergies has not announced any redundancies in line with the decision. Those concerned will be offered “a solution aligned with their personal situation: retirement or an internal transfer to another position based at the Antwerp site,” the energy major said in a statement. “This project is subject to the legally required employee consultation and notification process, which TotalEnergies will initiate with representatives of Antwerp platform employees in late April.” Thumbnail image shows aerial view of petrochemical industry infrastructure along Scheldt River in the Port of Antwerp (image credit Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand upgraded their free trade agreement, which came into force on 21 April, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The upgraded ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) will, among other amendments, strengthen supply chain resilience during times of crisis, allow for preferential tariff treatment and market access, and improve access to green opportunities among the countries, MTI said in a statement on 21 April. ASEAN comprises 10 countries from southeast Asia, namely, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei and Myanmar. “Amidst the uncertainties in the global trade environment, this agreement is a bright spot demonstrating ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand’s commitment to an open, inclusive and rules-based multilateral trading system,” said Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who is the concurrent trade & industry minister of the country. In 2023, ASEAN traded a total of $138.4 billion in goods with Australia and New Zealand. The combined GDP of all parties in the deal stood at over $5.6 trillion. The AANZFTA first came into effect on 1 January 2020, eliminating tariffs for 90% of goods traded between the parties, and covers 100% of Singapore’s trade volume with Australia and New Zealand, according to Enterprise Singapore.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Plunging US chemical stock prices may already be signaling a recession by year-end 2025, one Wall Street analyst said. “Chemical equities have been a good lead indicator for recessionary periods. History shows us that chemical equities start discounting a recession four to six quarters before it happens, suggesting that this time around, almost on cue, the sector was pointing to a recession by year-end 2025,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, in a research note. US chemical equities started to decline in earnest in mid-2024 with the selling picking up steam in October 2024 and most recently in April 2025. “Analyzing 60 years’ worth of historical data, what’s different this time around is that the average western chemical equity has dropped 22% year-to-date and is down 54% from its 2022 highs, far exceeding the average 31% decline, peak-to-trough, across all US recessionary periods going back to the 1960s,” he added. This would also suggest the decline is overdone, he noted. Being a leading indicator, chemical equities will fall sharply ahead of a recession, outperform the market during the recession in anticipation of an upturn, and rally strongly – 83% on average – coming out of a recession, the analyst pointed out. In his former role as chief economist of the American Chemistry Council (ACC), ICIS senior economist for Global Chemicals, Kevin Swift, analyzed the US chemical industry as a leading indicator for the US business cycle. Swift allocated around a 10% weighting to US chemical stock performance in the ACC Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB). The economist puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 34%. BETTER BALANCE SHEETS“Though some investors fear the emergence of another 2008/2009-type recession, we highlight that today’s western chemical sector is in a far better place, on both a balance sheet and cash flow basis, than during the global financial crisis,” said Ahmed. At the end of 2024, the sector had lower net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and higher free cash flow, interest coverage ratios, and cash flow coverage ratios of total debt, relative to the end of 2008 when the Global Financial Crisis began, he noted. “Additionally, the sector’s debt maturity profile today is far more spread out than in 2008, with very little debt coming due over the next two years,” said Ahmed. Chemical companies with the best risk/return profile include Celanese, Huntsman, Methanex, Tronox and Westlake, according to the analyst. Chemical stocks down by more than 50% from their 2022 highs to 14 April include Trinseo (-95%), Braskem (-85%), Tronox (-79%), Celanese (-78%), Chemours (-74%), Olin (-69%), Huntsman (-67%), Dow (-59%), Methanex (-52%) and LyondellBasell (-51%). Source: CNBC QUESTIONS ON DIVIDENDSThe selling has accelerated in April amid US tariff announcements. The equity declines have been so pronounced that dividend yields are now around 10.0% for Dow, 9.6% for LyondellBasell and 7.8% for Huntsman. In upcoming Q1 earnings calls, company managements will no doubt field questions about the safety of their dividends, as well as tariff impact. The Alembic Global Advisors analyst does not view dividend safety as a concern, as even in a draconian situation where EBITDA drops to 2020 COVID-19 levels, all companies under coverage with the exception of Dow, Huntsman and LyondellBasell and the industrial gas companies would be able to cover their dividends with cash flow. “We would also highlight that Dow has over $3 billion in cash coming in 2025 from various deals struck and settlements reached so can easily cover their dividend. The remaining five companies could easily tap into the debt markets to raise funds to cover their dividends if the need were to arise,” said Ahmed. (Thumbnail shows stock listings. Image by Shutterstock.)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 18 April. NEWS Brazil’s chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40%Brazil’s chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. Mexico must do homework on USMCA compliance, set policy to prop up nearshoring – Evonik execMexico breathed a sigh of relief when the US spared it from very punitive tariffs, but the country should not turn complacent and use this as a catalyst to step up compliance with rules of origin clauses contained in the North America free trade deal USMCA, according to the director for Mexico at German chemicals major Evonik. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods importsUS import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Argentina’s chemicals remain uninvited to the recovery partyArgentina’s chemicals sector remains in the doldrums, with output in the first quarter lower year on year, according to sources, who are increasingly turning pessimistic about manufacturing’s prospects amid the push for economic liberalization. Brazil’s inflation rises to 5.5% in March, further tightening expectedBrazil’s annual rate of inflation rose to 5.5% in March, year on year, the highest level in more than two years and up from 5.1% in February, the country’s statics office said on Friday. Argentina’s chemicals, plastics output keeps falling but manufacturing, construction upArgentina’s chemicals and plastics output continued falling in February, year on year, but petrochemicals-intensive activity in construction and overall manufacturing rose, according to the country’s statistics office Indec. Argentina’s annual inflation down to 56%; monthly price rises accelerateArgentina’s annual rate of inflation fell in March to 55.9%, down from 65.9% in February, the country’s statistics office said on Friday. Argentina’s IMF bailout confirmed after Milei returns from Washington; tariffs deal more elusiveWhen President Javier Milei of Argentina travelled to Washington last week, most analysts expected him to return with an IMF bailout agreed and ready. On Wednesday, the Fund confirmed a bail out for Argentina for the second time in four years, affirming analyst expectations. PRICINGLatAm PP spot domestic prices lower in Brazil on ample supply, weak demandSpot domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower in Brazil on ample supply and weak demand. In other Latin American countries, prices were steady. LatAm PE domestic prices fall in Brazil, Mexico on ample supply, soft demandDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell in Brazil and Mexico while being unchanged in other Latin American (LatAm) countries.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 April. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods imports US import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Global chemical prices plunge with oil amid tariffs The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country’s April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. Valero may shut down California refinery in 2026 Valero has submitted notice to the California Energy Commission of its intent to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations at its Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026, the US refining major said in an update on Wednesday. Brazil’s chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40% Brazil’s chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. INSIGHT: Possible US mineral tariffs threaten chem, refiner catalysts The US is taking steps that could lead to tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical minerals, many of which are used to make catalysts for key processes used by refiners and chemical producers. Canada to keep using retaliatory tariffs, regardless of election outcome Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 17 April. Europe PE endures week of tariff chaos, emerges with softer outlookThe European polyethylene (PE) market has suffered a week of tariff-based turmoil, which resulted in a significant shift in market sentiment. Low river Rhine severely restricts chemical shipping, rates riseDry weather conditions are starving the river Rhine of water, restricting its use for chemicals traffic and pushing up shipping rates, with no improvement forecast until later in April. Europe MPG players say seasonal improvement unlikelyEuropean monopropylene glycol (MPG) sellers do not see any respite from tough market conditions as the construction sector is struggling, arbitrage with Asia is wide and US tariffs are creating uncertainties through the value chain. INSIGHT: Europe chems players move to the side lines on tariff upheavalThe market volatility following the intensification of tariff threats has cast a pall over European chemicals sector activity, with players avoiding committing to long-term orders if possible in the face of demand uncertainty and currency volatility.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–State-owned National Fertilizers Ltd (NFL) plans to acquire an 18% stake in a proposed joint venture (JV) that will build a 1.27 million tonne/year urea plant at Namrup in India’s eastern Assam state. NFL plans to invest Indian rupees (Rs) 5.72 billion ($67 million) in the Namrup IV Fertilizer Plant, the company said in a disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 18 April. The state government of Assam will hold a 40% stake in the proposed joint venture; with NFL and Oil India Ltd (OIL) each holding an 18% stake. Hindustan Urvarak & Rasayan Ltd (HURL) will own 13% and Brahmaputra Valley Fertiliser Corp (BVFCL) will have the remaining 11%. The project, which will be set up within the complex operated by BVFCL, is expected to cost Rs106 billion, it added. The plant is expected to be commissioned within 48 months of the project launch, NFL said, adding that once operational, the plant will help meet the growing demand for urea in northeast India. The Indian government approved the proposal for the new project on 19 March 2025 as part of its effort to reduce urea imports. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the project during her budget speech on 1 February 2025. It will be the eighth plant with the same capacity that will be built in the south Asian country since 2019. ($1 = Rs85.12)