HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting an increase in corn area and yield which would result in record supplies with lower soybean production forecast, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. The current corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% year on year on increases to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres if realized would be the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. The smaller beginning stocks will partially be offsetting the increase in production, but total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices. US corn exports for 2025-2026 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. The US is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share. Ending stocks are being calculated higher at 385 million bushels, with total corn supply rising more than use, and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-2020. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents from the April update. For soybeans, the outlook shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports and lower ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels based on trend yield and lower area. Soybean supplies are down less than 1% as there was higher beginning stocks but that is facing lower imports and production. The USDA noted that higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America have lifted exportable supply, and despite higher global demand, the US share of global exports is now expected to be at 26%, down from the 28% level a year ago. The May WASDE calculates that soybean exports will be 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, and soybean ending stocks are projected at 295 million bushels, a decrease of 55 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024-2025. The next WASDE report will be released on 12 June.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US farmers continue to make good progress on their sowing efforts and have now completed 62% of corn plantings with soybeans at 48%, according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Some states have experienced additional poor weather, highlighted by heavy rainfall, but the current corn rate is above the 47% achieved in 2024 and the five-year average of 56%. North Carolina is now the top state with 86% of their acreage completed, followed by Texas at 84%. There is now 28% of the corn crop which has emerged. This current pace is ahead of the 21% level from 2024 and the five-year average of 21%. For soybeans, 48% of the crop is planted as farmers are outpacing 2024’s rate of 34% as well as the five-year average of 37%. Louisiana continues to be the leading state with 81% of the crop planted, followed by Mississippi at 71%. Cotton plantings have reached 28%, with sorghum now 26% sowed and spring wheat is 66% completed.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Several shares of chemical companies closed sharply higher on Monday after the US and China agreed to sharply reduce their tariffs for 90 days. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 12-May Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 42,410.10 1,160.72 2.81% S&P 500 5,844.19 184.28 3.26% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 822.31 17.02 2.11% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 877.99 15.41 1.79% The lower rates take effect on 14 May. For the US, it will lower its 2025 tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%. The 30% tariff is made up of the 20% fentanyl tariffs that the US adopted earlier in 2025 as well as the 10% baseline tariff that the US has imposed on most of the world. For China, it will cut its 2025 tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. The 10% tariff matches the baseline rate that the US has imposed on Chinese imports. China also suspended the non-tariff measures that it has taken since 2 April. The agreement does not mention the tariffs that China had imposed in February on a limited number of US imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nor does the agreement mention the restrictions on antimony and other minerals that China announced in December 2024 as well as those on bismuth and other minerals announced in February 2025. Monday’s pause does not change the tariffs that the two countries adopted during the first term of US President Donald Trump. Still, the agreement removes a substantial amount of tariffs, which should stimulate some trade. Fitch Ratings estimates that the effective US tariff rate fell to 13.1% from 22.8%. The following table shows the performance of the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 24.21 1.10 4.76% Avient 39.01 2.21 6.01% Axalta Coating Systems 32.7 1.60 5.14% Braskem 3.79 0.17 4.70% Chemours 11.99 0.93 8.41% Celanese 54.53 3.32 6.48% DuPont 71.27 4.50 6.74% Dow 30.98 1.50 5.09% Eastman 82.77 5.27 6.80% HB Fuller 57.03 2.50 4.58% Huntsman 12.93 0.88 7.30% Kronos Worldwide 7.55 0.27 3.71% LyondellBasell 60.68 3.75 6.59% Methanex 34.48 2.04 6.29% NewMarket 636.65 2.17 0.34% Ingevity 43.04 2.57 6.35% Olin 22.86 1.53 7.17% PPG 114.21 5.45 5.01% RPM International 114.27 3.74 3.38% Stepan 55.86 1.96 3.64% Sherwin-Williams 357.15 5.29 1.50% Tronox 5.77 0.52 9.90% Trinseo 2.54 0.02 0.79% Westlake 85.66 5.66 7.07%

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies surged on Monday after the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on the tariffs they imposed on each other since 2 April. The lower rates take effect on 14 May. For the US, it will lower its 2025 tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%. The 30% tariff is made up of the 20% fentanyl tariffs that the US adopted earlier in 2025 as well as the 10% baseline tariff that the US has imposed on most of the world. For China, it will cut its 2025 tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. The 10% tariff matches the baseline rate that the US has imposed on Chinese imports. China also suspended the non-tariff measures that it has taken since 2 April. The agreement does not mention the tariffs that China had imposed in February on a limited number of US imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nor does the agreement mention the restrictions on antimony and other minerals that China announced in December 2024 as well as those on bismuth and other minerals announced in February 2025. Monday’s pause does not change the tariffs that the two countries adopted during the first term of US President Donald Trump. Still, the agreement removes a substantial amount of tariffs that had brought trade between the two countries to a standstill. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 12-May Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 42,132.68 883.30 2.14% S&P 500 5,805.53 145.62 2.57% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 820.86 15.57 1.93% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 876.52 13.94 1.62% PAUSE WILL RESTORE TRADE BETWEEN US AND CHINAPrior to Monday’s announcement, trade between the US and China had nearly halted. The US exported large amounts of polyethylene (PE) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) to China. China, in turn, exported large amounts of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), polyether polyols and polyester fibre to the US. The following charts show the chemical trade between the two countries. China imported large amounts of chemical feedstock from the US to supply its ethane crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units. China had supposedly waived its tariffs on US imports of ethane but maintained those on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The US imported large amounts of auto parts and other goods that incorporated large amounts of plastics and chemicals. The high US tariffs on Chinese goods caused China to divert shipments to southeast Asia and other parts of the world. Those increased shipments from China displaced locally manufactured goods, leading to a chain reaction that lowered demand for the plastics and chemicals that those local manufacturers used to make those products that were now being supplied by China. US CONTINUES TO ROLL BACK TARIFFSMonday’s announcement is the most recent example of the US pausing its tariffs. These started with the pause that the US adopted on the 25% tariffs it imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico. Later, it paused the reciprocal tariffs that it imposed on most of the world on 2 April. The US maintained the 10% baseline tariffs that it announced that same day. The US later announced exemptions on semiconductors and electronics. Recently it reached an agreement with the UK that lowered the sectoral tariffs that the US imposed on automobile and other specific goods. PERFORMANCE OF US CHEM STOCKSThe following table shows the performance of the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 24.21 1.10 4.8% Avient 38.82 2.02 5.5% Axalta Coating Systems 32.73 1.63 5.2% Braskem 3.77 0.15 4.1% Chemours 11.88 0.82 7.4% Celanese 55.30 4.09 8.0% DuPont 71.17 4.40 6.6% Dow 31.34 1.86 6.3% Eastman 82.06 4.56 5.9% HB Fuller 56.59 2.06 3.8% Huntsman 12.96 0.91 7.6% Kronos Worldwide 7.63 0.35 4.8% LyondellBasell 60.80 3.87 6.8% Methanex 34.61 2.17 6.7% NewMarket 639.35 4.87 0.8% Ingevity 41.95 1.48 3.7% Olin 22.99 1.66 7.8% PPG 113.84 5.08 4.7% RPM International 114.26 3.73 3.4% Stepan 55.99 2.09 3.9% Sherwin-Williams 357.86 6.00 1.7% Tronox 5.78 0.53 10.1% Trinseo 2.62 0.10 4.0% Westlake 86.18 6.18 7.7% Thumbnail shows stock charts. Image by Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Freight rates from China to the US are likely to rise in the near term now that a 90-day pause on extreme tariffs has been negotiated, but in the longer term, it is likely rates will continue the downward trend seen prior to the “Liberation Day” announcement, according to shipping industry analysts. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said politicians on all sides will argue over who has won, who has lost and who has the better deal, but the most important point is that we will now see goods flowing more easily between the world’s biggest trading nations. “The spiraling trade war was catastrophic for businesses, so there will be huge relief that diplomacy appears to be returning,” Sand said. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates will rise, but not explode. “The volume rebound will probably signal the start of an early peak season that will keep rates elevated – but we might not see last year’s $8,000+/FEU highs due to a more competitive, well-supplied carrier landscape already keeping rates lower year on year,” Levine said. Levine said he expects tighter capacity as carriers work to reposition vessels and reduce the number of blank sailings that were used to support rates during the height of the tariff war. Sand agreed, noting that carriers responded to falling volumes from China to the US by slashing container shipping capacity and redeploying it onto other trades, such as the Asia to Europe route. “It takes time to shift capacity back again, so a revival in volumes from China to US may mean shippers have to pay a little over the odds in the short term,” Sand said. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said to expect an immediate surge of cargo from China to the US, based on two reasons: first, there is already a large amount of cargo ready to go, as US importers have been adopting a “wait-and-see” strategy over the past month and abstained from shipping cargo which is already ready. Second, the 90-day pause expires in the middle of the usual peak season for holiday-related goods going to the US. “We should therefore expect a possible pull-forward of cargo creating a shorter, sharper, peak season from basically right now,” Jensen said. US ports were already beginning to see fewer vessels arriving or scheduling arrivals because of the trade war, but Jensen said the 90-day pause could lead to a swift change. “With the expected surge in cargo, we should also expect that the US ports which are right now facing a massive drop in cargo volume will switch to face a surge of cargo with a substantial risk of bottleneck issues and delays as a consequence,” Jensen said. Average spot rates are down by 56% and 48% from China to the US West Coast and US East Coast, respectively, since 1 January, despite an uptick of 18% and 12% on 1 April, according to Xeneta data. Rates have fallen slightly since then but remain elevated compared with the end of March. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 9 May. INSIGHT: Mexico’s automotive tariffs raise specter of recession, rest of LatAm more resilient Mexico remains the potential largest victim of the change in US trade policy, but practically no country in the world would be spared from an impact, analysts said this week. US Celanese to cut rates if demand falters further in increasingly ‘uncertain’ H2 – execs Celanese will aim to weather what is becoming an increasingly “uncertain” second half of 2025 by reducing inventories and keeping firm cost controls, but also by reducing operating rates if demand is not there, the CEO at the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Tuesday. Braskem-Idesa launches its ethane import terminal in Mexico Braskem-Idesa (BI) officially launched the Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM) on Wednesday, according to a notice from the company. US-UK announce trade deal to open up markets for chemicals, ethanol, agriculture, autos, steel and aluminium, aircraft The US and UK announced the first trade deal since the US 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs which would open up UK market access for US chemicals, machinery, beef, ethanol and other agricultural products, government officials said. Canada’s Pembina assures on US tariffs and Path2Zero delay Pembina Pipeline does not expect material near-term impacts from the US tariffs or from the delay of Dow’s Path2Zero petrochemicals project in Alberta province, the top executives of the Canadian midstream energy company told analysts in an update on Friday.

LONDON (ICIS)–Ridley Corporation has agreed to acquire Dyno Nobel’s fertilizer distribution business for (Australian dollar) A$300 million, the Australian animal nutrition company said on Monday. The deal to buy IPF Distribution includes an option to acquire its Geelong North Shore property for A$75 million. The Phosphate Hill fertilizer manufacturing operations, and the closure and remediation costs associated with the Gibson Island and Geelong manufacturing operations are excluded from the deal, Ridley said. IPF Distribution is part of Incitec Pivot Fertilisers, a manufacturer and distributor of fertilizers within the wider business of explosives maker Dyno Nobel. Completion of the transaction is expected by Q3 2025 and no later than 30 November, subject to certain agreed conditions.

LONDON (ICIS)–Fertiglobe has agreed to acquire Wengfu Australia’s distribution assets as part of a strategic expansion strategy, the urea and ammonia producer said on Monday. The acquisition will expand the Abu Dhabi-headquartered firm’s downstream reach and enhance access to Australian customers. It currently supplies around 600,000 tonnes/year of urea to the country. The purchase price of Wengfu will be based on net asset value plus a premium of around $8 million, with the final amount to be determined at closing. “Acquiring Wengfu’s assets marks a strategic step in our value-driven growth strategy and accelerates our commercial footprint in Australia, one of the world’s fastest-growing agricultural regions,” said Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El-Hoshy. Fertiglobe said the transaction was expected to be 2.8% and 4.1% earnings per share (EPS) accretive before synergies in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Closing of the deal is subject to customary regulatory and legal approvals, it added in a statement.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at Apple’s dilemma on how to deal with the trade tariff war. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.