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Viewing 21-30 results of 58004
Petrochemicals17-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which gives an update on the collapse underway
in China’s property market.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
Crude Oil17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–S-Oil’s Shaheen
crude-to-chemical project in Ulsan, South Korea
is now 55% complete and is expected to start
commercial operations in the second half 2026,
the producer said on Monday.
Construction of the $7bn
project at the Onsan Industrial Complex of
Ulsan City started in March
2023, with
mechanical completion targeted by the first
half of 2026.
South Korean refiner S-Oil is 63%-owned by
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest crude
exporter.
The Shaheen project – named after the Arabic
word for “falcon” – will have a 1.8 million
tonne/year mixed-feed cracking facility; an
880,000 tonne/year linear low density
polyethylene (LLDPE) unit; and a 440,000
tonne/year high density PE (HDPE) plant.
The site will have a thermal crude-to-chemical
(TC2C) facility, which will convert crude
directly into petrochemical feedstocks such as
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha, and
the cracker is expected to recycle waste heat
for power generation in the refinery.
The company currently produces a range of
petrochemicals and fuels including benzene,
mixed xylenes, ethylene, methyl tertiary butyl
ether (MTBE), paraxylene, polypropylene,
propylene, propylene oxide, biodiesel, and
potentially bio-based aviation and other
bio-derived products at its Onsan site.
S-Oil plans to supply feedstock to domestic
petrochemical downstream companies mainly
through pipelines.
“To this end, the construction of
logistics-related infrastructure, such as a new
pipeline network, is being carried out at the
same time,” it said.
Long-term agreements for stable supply of raw
materials are being signed between S-Oil and
petrochemical companies located at the two
industrial complexes in Ulsan, which would
boost competitiveness of domestic value chain,
the company said.
Speciality Chemicals17-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top
stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended
14 February.
Europe MX and PX
chemical value chain braces for headwinds
amid downstream closures and tariff
threats
Downstream demand for mixed xylenes (MX) and
paraxylene (PX) in Europe has been limited at
the start of 2025, with permanent shutdowns
and the threat of tariffs among the hurdles
to a meaningful recovery.
Germany’s battered
chemical industry holds its breath ahead of
general election
Germany is set to head to the polls on 23
February amid one of the most challenging
economic scenarios the country has faced in
post-war times.
EU
gas price cap proposals would drive shipments
to other regions – ICIS expert
Proposals under consideration in the European
Commission to temporarily cap natural gas
pricing would likely result in the diversion
of supplies away from Europe and tighten
supply in the region, an ICIS analyst said on
Wednesday.
EU
promises plan to save chemicals as Clean
Industrial Deal approaches
The European Commission has promised to
address the plight of the region’s
energy-intensive petrochemical sector later
this year as it gears up for the publication
of the Clean Industrial Deal on 26 February.
IPEX: Asia finding a
floor, up 1%; PVC and PP drive 1.3% index
fall in Europe; USG toluene firms
The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) for
January shows that northeast Asian chemical
markets may be finding a floor after two
consecutive months of declines, with the
regional index up 1% – only its second gain
in six months, driven by a 14.7% surge in
butadiene due to rising crude oil costs.
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Isopropanol17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade
Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a
preliminary antidumping probe on imports of
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from
China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow
Chemical.
The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – consisting of
BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and Dow
Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the
petition on 12 February, citing dumping
margins of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese
material, according to ITC’s statement.
ITC will make a preliminary determination on
possible dumping by end-March 2025.
The petition named producers BASF
Polyurethane (Chongqing), Covestro Polymers
(China), Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate, Wanhua
Chemical Group, and Wanhua Chemical Ningbo as
allegedly dumping MDI into the US.
China’s Wanhua Chemical is the world’s
largest MDI producer.
In 2024, the US imported around 229,000
tonnes of MDI from China, which accounted for
57%
of total US MDI imports. The US in turn
exported minimal amounts of MDI to China.
Chinese MDI is currently subject to 35%
tariffs in the US, after the additional 10%
levy implemented on 4 February 2025.
In his first term as US president, Donald
Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on a host of
Chinese goods, including MDI in May 2019.
China, on the other hand, has a 31.5% tariff
on imports of US MDI – a 25% tariff on top of
the baseline 6.5% duty.
(Adds paragraphs 4-9)
Thumbnail image: Heavy Fog Hit Shanghai
Port, China – 16 February 2025
(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Isopropanol17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade
Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a
preliminary antidumping probe on imports of
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from
China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow
Chemical.
The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – which consists
of BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and
Dow Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the
petition on 12 February, citing dumping margins
of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese material,
according to ITC’s statement.
ITC will make a preliminary determination on
possible dumping by end-March 2025.
Gas17-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)– Germany will head to the
polls on 23 February for a snap federal
election as Olaf Scholz, the incumbent
chancellor, lost the vote of confidence last
December, a month after his coalition
government collapsed in November 2024.
The following analysis will reflect core
pledges from the manifestos of the German
parties and review those in detail using ICIS
data and insights.
This analysis of German political pledges and
announcements will be continuously updated by
the ICIS energy editorial team. Lead authors
include German power reporter Johnathan
Hamilton-Eve, German gas reporters Ghassan
Zumot and Eduardo Escajadillo.
Data aggregated from multiple surveys
collated by Politico, showed that on 12
February, the CDU/CSU led the polls with 29%
of the vote.
While the CDU/CDU remains ahead, the party
has lost three percentage points since 13
November, when Scholz first announced a vote
of confidence would take place on 16
December.
Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD)
and Linke party have seen the largest gains
in voter support, with each increasing by
three percentage points in the polls.
NORD STREAM
AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel, said in a party
congress on 11 January that her party is
willing to resume Russian gas supplies via
Nord Stream.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has
proposed reviving Nord Stream as part of its
strategy to affordable and secure gas
supplies. However, this is unlikely to
materialise as BSW is not among the top three
parties while the AfD is explicitly excluded
from the ruling coalition. As a result, such
energy policies would be very unlikely to
pass in parliament.
Other parties are explicitly against the idea
of returning to Russian piped supplies.
Technical capacity of Nord Stream 1 and 2 is
55 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year for
each of the twin pipelines.
REVIVAL OF NUCLEAR POWER
Germany’s controversial decision to shut down
its last three nuclear power plants in April
2023, is also an important topic discussed by
the main parties who claim that this source
of generation would ensure security of supply
in the power sector.
The AfD is the most vocal party to advocate
for the return of nuclear energy as part of
its agenda, the CDU/CSU dissimilarly said it
would examine the possibility of
recommissioning nuclear power plants as part
of energy diversification.
Excluding the FDP which support nuclear power
development, the SPDs have no clear stance on
the issue.
The Greens/Alliance 90, Linke and BSW are the
only parties that explicitly oppose a return
to nuclear power generation, although BSW
does support intensifying research in the
field of nuclear fusion.
Despite mixed views on nuclear,
market participants and former
nuclear operators remain sceptical
on the issue, citing high costs, extensive
staff training, regulatory challenges and the
advanced dismantling of decommissioned
nuclear plants as key barriers, making a
revival unfeasible.
GAS POWER PLANT STRATEGY?
After a year of delays to the power plant
safety act, Germany’s coalition collapse led
to the current minority government failing to
pass the act in December 2024.
While the German Federal Ministry of Economic
Affairs and Climate action (BMWK) previously
told ICIS that implementing the act was “no
longer possible” due to CDU/CSU opposition,
traders active within the German power market
noted that a revised bill with a renewed
focus would likely follow the elections to
help address missing power plant capacity.
“A law to increase the capacity of
dispatchable power plants is highly necessary
and we will see some version of it in 2025,”
said one trader.
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, said in
January that it would build 50 new gas-fired
power plants quickly if elected.
According to ICIS Analytics, that would make
around a 25GW capacity addition to Germany’s
current 36GW gas-fired fleet.
This move aims to bring back confidence for
investors and supply security for power
consumers amid multiple periods of limited
renewable generations this winter so far.
On the other hand, the Greens want to move
away from fossil fuels towards renewable
energy as fast as possible. They strongly
oppose new gas-fired power plants, unless
hydrogen-ready, and aim to achieve 100%
renewable electricity within the next ten
years. Additionally, they plan to stop using
fossil gas by 2045 and reject new long-term
gas import deals, focusing on local
sustainable energy.
The Social Democrats, led by the incumbent
chancellor Olaf Scholz, advocate for a more
balanced approach. They aim to reduce CO2
emissions and are open to carbon capture and
storage projects. Scholz recently welcomed
the commissioning of new US LNG projects in a
bid to diversify energy sources and expressed
commitments to phasing out traditional energy
sources gradually to maintain energy security
and industrial strength.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) supports a
market-driven policy. They want to reduce
regulations to improve efficiency and
modernization, creating a simple capacity
market to incentivize building gas-fired
power plants. The FDP also supports
increasing domestic natural gas extraction,
including the use of fracking, and boosting
storage capacities to reduce reliance on
international supplies.
In stark contrast, AfD takes a very different
approach. They support building new coal- and
lignite-fired power plants and aim to revive
the Nord Stream pipelines to secure cheap gas
imports.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
The expansion of renewable energy remains a
key topic in Germany, however, its focus has
somewhat declined as debates over migration
and how to revive the country’s struggling
economy take centre stage.
Despite this shift, most parties continue to
agree on the need to expand renewables.
The Greens, SPD and Linke are the most
ambitious in terms of promoting renewable
energy.
The Greens have pledged to uphold the
Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) target of
an 80% renewable energy mix by 2030 and a
carbon-neutral power grid by 2035.
Similarly, Linke supports a 100% renewable
energy mix, but with an extended timeline to
2050.
To accelerate renewable expansion, Linke
proposes municipalities receive a €25,000
bonus per MW for new wind turbines and
large-scale PV systems built, along with a
higher mandatory payment from wind and solar
operators to municipalities.
All parties advocate for lower grid fees,
while the Greens, SPD, and CDU/CSU also
advocate for a reduction in electricity taxes
to cut prices and incentivise renewable
growth.
The BSW has indicated it would implement a
repowering program to replace old wind
turbines with new ones to increase
electricity yield, while encouraging the
installation of PV systems on public
buildings and parking lots.
In contrast, the FDP and AfD take an openly
hostile stance towards renewables.
Both parties have pledged to ban renewable
subsidies, while the AfD has vowed to go a
step further and demolish all wind turbines,
with Weidel describing them as “windmills of
shame”.
Crude Oil17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical
exports in January declined by 0.2% year on
year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.10 billion
($821 million), while overall non-oil domestic
exports (NODX) fell by 2.1% over the same
period, official data showed on Monday.
The southeast Asian country’s January NODX
reversed the 9.0% increase posted in the
previous month, trade promotion agency
Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said.
For the whole of 2025, EnterpriseSG forecasts a
modest growth of 1.0-3.0% for the overall
NODX amid trade and economic headwinds.
In January, Singapore’s electronics exports
grew by 9.6% year on year, while non-
electronics NODX fell by 4.8% over the same
period as pharmaceuticals shipments slumped by
53.0%.
Exports to Hong Kong, the US and Taiwan posted
growths in January 2025, while shipments to
China, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the EU
27 declined.
Singapore is a leading petrochemical
manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia,
with more than 100 international chemical
companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell,
based at its Jurong Island hub.
For the whole of 2024, Singapore’s
petrochemical exports grew by 4.6%, with
overall NODX inching up by 0.2%.
($1 = S$1.34)
Polyethylene17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: Let me start with a
confession: I have no idea which of the three
scenarios in today’s blog post will come true.
That’s the only honest answer in today’s much
more complex markets.
What I do know is that China’s role as the
world’s biggest net importer of linear low
density polyethylene (LLDPE) is shifting, and
the outcome will transform global trade, supply
chains, and pricing power.
Here are the scenarios:
ICIS Base Case: 72% average operating rate
→ Net imports at 4.5 million tonnes per year
(down from 5.9 million tonnes per year in
2020-2024).
Higher Operating Rates (81%) → Net imports
fall to 2.3 million tonnes.
Back to 2024 Operating Rate (90%) → Net
imports shrink to just 0.3 million tonnes, with
China being a net exporter in some years.
What factors could push China towards higher or
lower LLDPE imports?
Geopolitics & Supply
Security: Beijing may prioritize
self-sufficiency, directing plants to run at
high rates – even at a loss – to reduce
reliance on imports.
After last year’s strong export growth, trade
tensions don’t block further export growth in
manufactured goods. LLDPE demand is
boosted, with more of it met locally.
China’s Cost-Competitive
Production: New world-scale,
highly integrated plants in China are far to
the right of global cost curves.
Shifting to Higher-Value Grades: China
triples the number of polymer grades it
produces, shifting toward C6 and C8 grades,
further reducing reliance on imports.
Another Variable: Capacity
Growth & Carbon Constraints
2025-2028 will see the biggest wave of LLDPE
capacity additions. Most of these plants
are already built, under construction, or
approved.
China’s 2028 refinery cap (due to EV [electric
vehicle] growth) may limit domestic feedstock
supply. Will China import feedstocks or scale
back chemicals capacity growth?
China needs a minimum 28% greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction by 2035 to stay on track for net zero
by 2060 (Carbon
Brief). Could climate policies slow
chemicals expansion?
Some of China’s steam crackers are now 20+
years old. Will they be revamped, or will
we see a wave of shutdowns?
As Complexity Grows, AI is Transforming
Forecasting
Manual calculations that took hours now
take minutes.
Data crunching is faster, cheaper, and more
accurate.
Large language models (LLMs) can generate
reports instantly, without errors.
Even the creative thinking or wisdom-of-crowds
approach that produced today’s post could soon
be done by AI.
But will the machines be trusted? I again don’t
know.
What is clear is that AI offers the
potential to model today’s muddled and very
challenging markets. We are lucky that the
technology has come along at the right time.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Gas17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 14 February.
SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary
for rebalancing
By Izham Ahmad 10-Feb-25 10:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–A recent wave of plant shutdowns
among polyethylene (PE) producers across
southeast Asia has been seen by some as a
reflection of how dire the situation in the
market is.
Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record
Q4 loss; ’25 outlook downbeat
By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Feb-25 14:44
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT)
incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss,
with analysts expecting the Malaysian
producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid
weak economic conditions and an oversupply of
petrochemical products.
INSIGHT: Strong hydrogen push in China to
reshape global industry amid US
pullback
By Patricia Tao 10-Feb-25 18:23 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The US has suspended financial
support for its own hydrogen sector, while
China is ramping up efforts to expand its
hydrogen industry. The sharp policy
divergence between the two countries could
accelerate the global hydrogen market’s shift
and reshape the industry landscape over the
next three to five years.
Asia polyester tracks rising costs despite
weak post-holiday demand
By Judith Wang 11-Feb-25 12:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s polyester export discussions
edged up in line with the higher cost
pressure after the Lunar New Year holiday,
while buying activities were limited as
end-user demand remained weak.
SE Asia VAM market rallies on crimped supply,
demand surge
By Hwee Hwee Tan 12-Feb-25 12:43 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The southeast Asia vinyl acetate
monomer (VAM) import market is being buoyed
by resurgent restocking demand and supply
disruptions into February.
INSIGHT: US policy shift raises concerns on
future of CCS, blue ammonia value
chain
By Bee Lin Chow 12-Feb-25 13:04 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The unfolding political battle in the
US over national economic interest and energy
security has raised concerns about potential
implications for its emerging carbon capture
and storage (CCS) and blue ammonia sectors,
and the potential spillover impact on Asia.
PODCAST: US hydrogen subsidy halt vs China’s
expansion – what’s next for the global
market?
By Anita Yang 12-Feb-25 15:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Trump administration swiftly
withdrew financial support for its hydrogen
sector, while China is accelerating hydrogen
expansion with strong policy backing.
INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions
to US as PM Modi meets Trump
By Priya Jestin 13-Feb-25 14:18 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on
various products, including electronics and
automobiles – major downstream sectors of
petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald
Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a
big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports.
Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to 8%
to fuel socioeconomic growth
By Jonathan Yee 13-Feb-25 16:08 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Vietnam announced on 12 February it
would raise its GDP growth target for 2025 to
8.0% from 6.5-7.0%, with industrial
manufacturing and foreign investment expected
to drive growth.
Singapore 2024 petrochemical exports grow
4.6%; trade risks stay high
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-25 14:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical
exports in 2024 rose by 4.6%, supporting the
overall growth in non-oil shipments abroad
which is being threatened by ongoing trade
frictions among major economies.
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