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Isopropanol17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade
Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a
preliminary antidumping probe on imports of
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from
China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow
Chemical.
The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – consisting of
BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and Dow
Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the
petition on 12 February, citing dumping
margins of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese
material, according to ITC’s statement.
ITC will make a preliminary determination on
possible dumping by end-March 2025.
The petition named producers BASF
Polyurethane (Chongqing), Covestro Polymers
(China), Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate, Wanhua
Chemical Group, and Wanhua Chemical Ningbo as
allegedly dumping MDI into the US.
China’s Wanhua Chemical is the world’s
largest MDI producer.
In 2024, the US imported around 229,000
tonnes of MDI from China, which accounted for
57%
of total US MDI imports. The US in turn
exported minimal amounts of MDI to China.
Chinese MDI is currently subject to 35%
tariffs in the US, after the additional 10%
levy implemented on 4 February 2025.
In his first term as US president, Donald
Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on a host of
Chinese goods, including MDI in May 2019.
China, on the other hand, has a 31.5% tariff
on imports of US MDI – a 25% tariff on top of
the baseline 6.5% duty.
(Adds paragraphs 4-9)
Thumbnail image: Heavy Fog Hit Shanghai
Port, China – 16 February 2025
(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Isopropanol17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade
Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a
preliminary antidumping probe on imports of
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from
China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow
Chemical.
The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – which consists
of BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and
Dow Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the
petition on 12 February, citing dumping margins
of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese material,
according to ITC’s statement.
ITC will make a preliminary determination on
possible dumping by end-March 2025.
Gas17-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)– Germany will head to the
polls on 23 February for a snap federal
election as Olaf Scholz, the incumbent
chancellor, lost the vote of confidence last
December, a month after his coalition
government collapsed in November 2024.
The following analysis will reflect core
pledges from the manifestos of the German
parties and review those in detail using ICIS
data and insights.
This analysis of German political pledges and
announcements will be continuously updated by
the ICIS energy editorial team. Lead authors
include German power reporter Johnathan
Hamilton-Eve, German gas reporters Ghassan
Zumot and Eduardo Escajadillo.
Data aggregated from multiple surveys
collated by Politico, showed that on 12
February, the CDU/CSU led the polls with 29%
of the vote.
While the CDU/CDU remains ahead, the party
has lost three percentage points since 13
November, when Scholz first announced a vote
of confidence would take place on 16
December.
Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD)
and Linke party have seen the largest gains
in voter support, with each increasing by
three percentage points in the polls.
NORD STREAM
AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel, said in a party
congress on 11 January that her party is
willing to resume Russian gas supplies via
Nord Stream.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has
proposed reviving Nord Stream as part of its
strategy to affordable and secure gas
supplies. However, this is unlikely to
materialise as BSW is not among the top three
parties while the AfD is explicitly excluded
from the ruling coalition. As a result, such
energy policies would be very unlikely to
pass in parliament.
Other parties are explicitly against the idea
of returning to Russian piped supplies.
Technical capacity of Nord Stream 1 and 2 is
55 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year for
each of the twin pipelines.
REVIVAL OF NUCLEAR POWER
Germany’s controversial decision to shut down
its last three nuclear power plants in April
2023, is also an important topic discussed by
the main parties who claim that this source
of generation would ensure security of supply
in the power sector.
The AfD is the most vocal party to advocate
for the return of nuclear energy as part of
its agenda, the CDU/CSU dissimilarly said it
would examine the possibility of
recommissioning nuclear power plants as part
of energy diversification.
Excluding the FDP which support nuclear power
development, the SPDs have no clear stance on
the issue.
The Greens/Alliance 90, Linke and BSW are the
only parties that explicitly oppose a return
to nuclear power generation, although BSW
does support intensifying research in the
field of nuclear fusion.
Despite mixed views on nuclear,
market participants and former
nuclear operators remain sceptical
on the issue, citing high costs, extensive
staff training, regulatory challenges and the
advanced dismantling of decommissioned
nuclear plants as key barriers, making a
revival unfeasible.
GAS POWER PLANT STRATEGY?
After a year of delays to the power plant
safety act, Germany’s coalition collapse led
to the current minority government failing to
pass the act in December 2024.
While the German Federal Ministry of Economic
Affairs and Climate action (BMWK) previously
told ICIS that implementing the act was “no
longer possible” due to CDU/CSU opposition,
traders active within the German power market
noted that a revised bill with a renewed
focus would likely follow the elections to
help address missing power plant capacity.
“A law to increase the capacity of
dispatchable power plants is highly necessary
and we will see some version of it in 2025,”
said one trader.
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, said in
January that it would build 50 new gas-fired
power plants quickly if elected.
According to ICIS Analytics, that would make
around a 25GW capacity addition to Germany’s
current 36GW gas-fired fleet.
This move aims to bring back confidence for
investors and supply security for power
consumers amid multiple periods of limited
renewable generations this winter so far.
On the other hand, the Greens want to move
away from fossil fuels towards renewable
energy as fast as possible. They strongly
oppose new gas-fired power plants, unless
hydrogen-ready, and aim to achieve 100%
renewable electricity within the next ten
years. Additionally, they plan to stop using
fossil gas by 2045 and reject new long-term
gas import deals, focusing on local
sustainable energy.
The Social Democrats, led by the incumbent
chancellor Olaf Scholz, advocate for a more
balanced approach. They aim to reduce CO2
emissions and are open to carbon capture and
storage projects. Scholz recently welcomed
the commissioning of new US LNG projects in a
bid to diversify energy sources and expressed
commitments to phasing out traditional energy
sources gradually to maintain energy security
and industrial strength.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) supports a
market-driven policy. They want to reduce
regulations to improve efficiency and
modernization, creating a simple capacity
market to incentivize building gas-fired
power plants. The FDP also supports
increasing domestic natural gas extraction,
including the use of fracking, and boosting
storage capacities to reduce reliance on
international supplies.
In stark contrast, AfD takes a very different
approach. They support building new coal- and
lignite-fired power plants and aim to revive
the Nord Stream pipelines to secure cheap gas
imports.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
The expansion of renewable energy remains a
key topic in Germany, however, its focus has
somewhat declined as debates over migration
and how to revive the country’s struggling
economy take centre stage.
Despite this shift, most parties continue to
agree on the need to expand renewables.
The Greens, SPD and Linke are the most
ambitious in terms of promoting renewable
energy.
The Greens have pledged to uphold the
Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) target of
an 80% renewable energy mix by 2030 and a
carbon-neutral power grid by 2035.
Similarly, Linke supports a 100% renewable
energy mix, but with an extended timeline to
2050.
To accelerate renewable expansion, Linke
proposes municipalities receive a €25,000
bonus per MW for new wind turbines and
large-scale PV systems built, along with a
higher mandatory payment from wind and solar
operators to municipalities.
All parties advocate for lower grid fees,
while the Greens, SPD, and CDU/CSU also
advocate for a reduction in electricity taxes
to cut prices and incentivise renewable
growth.
The BSW has indicated it would implement a
repowering program to replace old wind
turbines with new ones to increase
electricity yield, while encouraging the
installation of PV systems on public
buildings and parking lots.
In contrast, the FDP and AfD take an openly
hostile stance towards renewables.
Both parties have pledged to ban renewable
subsidies, while the AfD has vowed to go a
step further and demolish all wind turbines,
with Weidel describing them as “windmills of
shame”.
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Crude Oil17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical
exports in January declined by 0.2% year on
year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.10 billion
($821 million), while overall non-oil domestic
exports (NODX) fell by 2.1% over the same
period, official data showed on Monday.
The southeast Asian country’s January NODX
reversed the 9.0% increase posted in the
previous month, trade promotion agency
Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said.
For the whole of 2025, EnterpriseSG forecasts a
modest growth of 1.0-3.0% for the overall
NODX amid trade and economic headwinds.
In January, Singapore’s electronics exports
grew by 9.6% year on year, while non-
electronics NODX fell by 4.8% over the same
period as pharmaceuticals shipments slumped by
53.0%.
Exports to Hong Kong, the US and Taiwan posted
growths in January 2025, while shipments to
China, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the EU
27 declined.
Singapore is a leading petrochemical
manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia,
with more than 100 international chemical
companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell,
based at its Jurong Island hub.
For the whole of 2024, Singapore’s
petrochemical exports grew by 4.6%, with
overall NODX inching up by 0.2%.
($1 = S$1.34)
Polyethylene17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: Let me start with a
confession: I have no idea which of the three
scenarios in today’s blog post will come true.
That’s the only honest answer in today’s much
more complex markets.
What I do know is that China’s role as the
world’s biggest net importer of linear low
density polyethylene (LLDPE) is shifting, and
the outcome will transform global trade, supply
chains, and pricing power.
Here are the scenarios:
ICIS Base Case: 72% average operating rate
→ Net imports at 4.5 million tonnes per year
(down from 5.9 million tonnes per year in
2020-2024).
Higher Operating Rates (81%) → Net imports
fall to 2.3 million tonnes.
Back to 2024 Operating Rate (90%) → Net
imports shrink to just 0.3 million tonnes, with
China being a net exporter in some years.
What factors could push China towards higher or
lower LLDPE imports?
Geopolitics & Supply
Security: Beijing may prioritize
self-sufficiency, directing plants to run at
high rates – even at a loss – to reduce
reliance on imports.
After last year’s strong export growth, trade
tensions don’t block further export growth in
manufactured goods. LLDPE demand is
boosted, with more of it met locally.
China’s Cost-Competitive
Production: New world-scale,
highly integrated plants in China are far to
the right of global cost curves.
Shifting to Higher-Value Grades: China
triples the number of polymer grades it
produces, shifting toward C6 and C8 grades,
further reducing reliance on imports.
Another Variable: Capacity
Growth & Carbon Constraints
2025-2028 will see the biggest wave of LLDPE
capacity additions. Most of these plants
are already built, under construction, or
approved.
China’s 2028 refinery cap (due to EV [electric
vehicle] growth) may limit domestic feedstock
supply. Will China import feedstocks or scale
back chemicals capacity growth?
China needs a minimum 28% greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction by 2035 to stay on track for net zero
by 2060 (Carbon
Brief). Could climate policies slow
chemicals expansion?
Some of China’s steam crackers are now 20+
years old. Will they be revamped, or will
we see a wave of shutdowns?
As Complexity Grows, AI is Transforming
Forecasting
Manual calculations that took hours now
take minutes.
Data crunching is faster, cheaper, and more
accurate.
Large language models (LLMs) can generate
reports instantly, without errors.
Even the creative thinking or wisdom-of-crowds
approach that produced today’s post could soon
be done by AI.
But will the machines be trusted? I again don’t
know.
What is clear is that AI offers the
potential to model today’s muddled and very
challenging markets. We are lucky that the
technology has come along at the right time.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Gas17-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 14 February.
SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary
for rebalancing
By Izham Ahmad 10-Feb-25 10:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–A recent wave of plant shutdowns
among polyethylene (PE) producers across
southeast Asia has been seen by some as a
reflection of how dire the situation in the
market is.
Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record
Q4 loss; ’25 outlook downbeat
By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Feb-25 14:44
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT)
incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss,
with analysts expecting the Malaysian
producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid
weak economic conditions and an oversupply of
petrochemical products.
INSIGHT: Strong hydrogen push in China to
reshape global industry amid US
pullback
By Patricia Tao 10-Feb-25 18:23 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The US has suspended financial
support for its own hydrogen sector, while
China is ramping up efforts to expand its
hydrogen industry. The sharp policy
divergence between the two countries could
accelerate the global hydrogen market’s shift
and reshape the industry landscape over the
next three to five years.
Asia polyester tracks rising costs despite
weak post-holiday demand
By Judith Wang 11-Feb-25 12:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s polyester export discussions
edged up in line with the higher cost
pressure after the Lunar New Year holiday,
while buying activities were limited as
end-user demand remained weak.
SE Asia VAM market rallies on crimped supply,
demand surge
By Hwee Hwee Tan 12-Feb-25 12:43 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The southeast Asia vinyl acetate
monomer (VAM) import market is being buoyed
by resurgent restocking demand and supply
disruptions into February.
INSIGHT: US policy shift raises concerns on
future of CCS, blue ammonia value
chain
By Bee Lin Chow 12-Feb-25 13:04 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The unfolding political battle in the
US over national economic interest and energy
security has raised concerns about potential
implications for its emerging carbon capture
and storage (CCS) and blue ammonia sectors,
and the potential spillover impact on Asia.
PODCAST: US hydrogen subsidy halt vs China’s
expansion – what’s next for the global
market?
By Anita Yang 12-Feb-25 15:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Trump administration swiftly
withdrew financial support for its hydrogen
sector, while China is accelerating hydrogen
expansion with strong policy backing.
INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions
to US as PM Modi meets Trump
By Priya Jestin 13-Feb-25 14:18 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on
various products, including electronics and
automobiles – major downstream sectors of
petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald
Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a
big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports.
Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to 8%
to fuel socioeconomic growth
By Jonathan Yee 13-Feb-25 16:08 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Vietnam announced on 12 February it
would raise its GDP growth target for 2025 to
8.0% from 6.5-7.0%, with industrial
manufacturing and foreign investment expected
to drive growth.
Singapore 2024 petrochemical exports grow
4.6%; trade risks stay high
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-25 14:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical
exports in 2024 rose by 4.6%, supporting the
overall growth in non-oil shipments abroad
which is being threatened by ongoing trade
frictions among major economies.
Ammonia14-Feb-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs
coming in two weeks and winter looking like it
wants to linger, possibly through much of
February in some states, the US fertilizer
industry is quite positive over the near-term
direction of domestic products, especially
urea.
Many participants gathered this week at the
first major US fertilizer conference where the
strong tone that has been developing to start
the year was on full display.
The current outlook comes from the lift in near
term prices and firm sentiment towards there
being good consumption of the volumes already
positioned as field work begins in more areas
over the rest of this month.
There is also an upbeat view towards there
being solid demand patterns throughout the
season if inventory tightness does not impede
that flow, with it widely expected that the
current conditions and the arrival of the peak
spring season will promote further value
escalation in the short-term.
Further boosting the overall optimism is this
season’s corn plantings with estimates
remaining elevated and now ranging between 93
million to 96 million acres potentially.
The realization of the higher end of that
projection is likely dependent on corn prices
being supportive over the next several weeks
and there being an early start of field work in
key states.
It was expressed that the current low inventory
of products, especially in nitrogen could
become a limiting factor with a source saying,
“we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96
million acres”.
That these extra sowings would cause a lift in
total fertilizer consumption is not for
certain.
Some of the increased acreage could be on land
considered marginal for growing high yielding
corn and farmers could chose to do less than
they would on prime land or chose a cheaper
option.
Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from
the last crop.
When it came to weighing the impacts that
fertilizer and agricultural interests within
both Canada and the US might face with tariffs
there was significant discussions over whether
these measures would be imposed or would they
not come forth at all.
If so, would it be implemented at the full rate
of 25% or be placed at a different level higher
or lower, with participants almost evenly split
between their viewpoints.
Those operating in Canada or with interest in
product within the country are definitely more
vested in these outcomes than others in the
industry and their concerns were sharper.
As one source said a large spike in values
would be the most immediate hit to the markets
and more than anything there is “a lot of
uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are
selling there”.
Some participants are also seeing US retailers
becoming more cautious about their further
commitments even though supply is tight for
nitrogen products.
In many areas winter weather is keeping
activities quite reduced and could keep the
northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was
still some optimism that some areas could get
underway as March begins.
If that materializes that would be deemed an
early start in some locations, with there being
the mindset that the sooner farmers start the
more time for fertilizers to be consumed.
For now, field work is only underway in the
southern states in places that have been warmer
and dry but that is only a small portion of
what is ahead for spring applications.
It was discussed that there are some wheat
inputs that have begun, and it is expected that
over the coming weeks even more efforts will
start where there is good soil moisture for not
only ammonia but also urea and UAN
applications.
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate14-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
Higher prices heard for colourless, 80/20
bales in Germany
Some UK flake sellers raising offers due to
better orders
Market looking ahead to March already
Ethanol14-Feb-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Although the new US
administration has so far only imposed tariffs
on China, President Donald Trump keeps using
the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and
in the latter part of this week it was the turn
of Brazil’s ethanol.
Earlier in the week, Brazilian officials had
already been in damage limitation mode after
the US said it would impose higher tariffs on
steel on 12 March.
Brazil’s still strong steel sector is now
hoping the two countries will agree, just like
they did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, a
quota so Brazil can have an outlet for its
excess steel.
ETHANOL IN THE
SPOTLIGHTThe Brazilian
government has so far kept a low profile in the
issues presented to it by the new US
Administration; first, it was deportation
flights and the rather discrete row caused by
the fact that Brazilians returning home did so
handcuffed in the aircraft.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva,
however, was wary of how his Colombian
counterpart, Gustavo Petro, reacted to the
first deportation flights – taking to social
media to say Colombia’s sovereignty could never
be curtailed, after he ordered two flights to
return to the US.
Trump’s furious reaction on a
Sunday afternoon in his first week in the White
House sent the signal to allies – Colombia is a
firm ally of the US in the region – and enemies
alike about the new winds blowing in
Washington.
As already said, Brazil’s cabinet also kept a
rather low profile about the tariffs on steel.
The week started with a report by Folha de
S. Paulo citing an unnamed cabinet
official saying Brazil could retaliate by
raising taxes on the US technological majors
operating in the country.
The Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was quick
to deny such a possibility a few hours later,
and what could have become a big row died down.
But then came a White House announcement on
reciprocal tariffs later in the week, and the
US intention to analyze country by country all
tariffs and end “unfair trade practices.”
The US mentioned specifically Brazilian ethanol
as a prime example of those unfair trade
practices, something the US trade group for the
sector, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA),
was quick to grasp after years of lobbying.
“The US is one of the most
open economies in the world, yet our trading
partners keep their markets closed to our
exports. This lack of reciprocity is unfair and
contributes to our large and persistent annual
trade deficit,” said the White House.
“There are endless examples where our trading
partners do not give the US reciprocal
treatment. [For example] The US tariff on
ethanol is a mere 2.5%. Yet Brazil charges the
US ethanol exports a tariff of 18%.”
The White House went on to say the US posted a
trade deficit with Brazil of $148 million in
2024, which it attributed to the effect of the
country’s higher import tariff. Brazil’s
exports to the US totaled $200 million last
year, while US shipments stood at $48 million.
With Brazil featuring so prominently in one of
the White House’s dozens of weekly press
releases, it was difficult for the cabinet to
remain in the background, aware that ethanol is
an important employer and, in a way, Brazil’s
own success story.
In the 1970’s crude oil prices shock, the
country took the strategic decision to
encourage ethanol as a motor fuel, propping up
at the same time what was then a nascent
agribusiness which became one of the world’s
breadbaskets, owing to Brazil’s vast arable
land and abundant water and warm weather.
Ethanol, therefore, required a stronger
response, and the cabinet’s measured statement
decided to focus on sugar.
The minister for energy and mines – a
heavyweight in any Brazilian government – was
the one in charge to remind the US that if all
tariffs should be reciprocal, Brazil would very
much like to see the hefty tariffs on its sugar
lowered.
Alexandre Silveira argued that Brazil’s sugar
had to pay an 81.16% import tariff to enter the
US, without offering anything in return.
“To have a fair and reciprocal plan, as stated
by President Trump, it would be necessary, in
fact, to eliminate import tariffs for Brazilian
sugar,” he said, as quoted by CNN
Brazil.
“Trump’s decision is unreasonable, as there is
no counterpart in expanding Brazilian sugar
exports to the US. This type of stance weakens
multilateralism and will have negative
consequences for the US economy itself.”
As soon as Brazil’s ethanol featured on the
White House’s communication, the US trade group
RFA’s CEO issued a statement celebrating that
after a decade spending “precious time and
resources fighting back against an unfair and
unjustified tariff regime” imposed by Brazil on
US ethanol exports, the lobbying had finally
paid off.
“What’s more ironic is that these tariff
barriers have been erected against US ethanol
imports while our country has openly accepted –
and even encouraged and incentivized – ethanol
imports from Brazil,” said Geoff Cooper.
STEEL TARIFFSJust like
everyone else, the Brazilian cabinet is trying
to adapt to the fast pace of another Trump
presidency. For much of the first half of this
week, ministers in public and steel industry
players in private went from panic mode to
talks mode as the 12
March implementation date offers room for
that.
Brazil’s officials are hopeful a new quota can
be agreed with the US, after pressure from
manufacturing companies in the US persuaded
Trump during his first term to establish a
3.5-million tonne quota for steel semi-finished
products and slabs, and a 687,000 tonne quota
of rolled products.
In the current environment, the repetition of
that deal would a be a resounding success for
Brazil’s steel producers.
Brazil’s produces around 32 million tonnes of
steel annually, according to trade group the
Steel Brazil Institute, but the country’s
demand stands at 24 million. This means the
sector must find markets overseas, and for the
past few years nearly half of that has been
going to the US as per the quota agreed.
The large US trade deficit in steel is shown by
the 20-25 million tonnes/year imported. In the
nine months to September 2024, the US had
imported 20.2 million tonnes, according to the
US International Trade Administration.
Brazil, with 16.7% market share in those
imports entering the US, is the second largest
supplier only behind Canada (22.5%), followed
by Mexico (11.4%), South Korea (10.1%), Vietnam
(4.6%), and Japan (4.0%), according to the
official data.
If the universal tariffs on steel are finally
implemented on 12 March, Brazil’s quota would
also come to an end. This is where Brazilian
officials will put much of its efforts in the
next four weeks, an attempt which may well end
up being successful if US manufacturers are
listened to.
Earlier this week, an economist at ICIS warned
that higher steel tariffs would likely increase prices in US
manufacturing and could potentially reduce
levels of capital expenditure (capex) in new
plants. The US is heavily reliant in steel
imports to cover its demand.
“A tariff raises the price in the market as
domestic steel producers raise the price for
steel to match the tariff… Higher price
lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but
does increase quantity supplied by domestic
producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic
products to produce when then they could not
have done so without the tariff,” said Kevin
Swift.
“Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building
a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc.
These will especially hurt when government
policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign
direct investment] in the US.”
US manufacturers likely to be lobbying for
exceptions to the steel tariffs are set to be
Brazil’s best ally in the next four weeks,
considering Trump’s chauvinistic approach to
most things.
Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) re-election in the
presidential election due in 2026 hangs in the
balance. While manufacturing had a bumper 2024,
more formal and better-paid jobs in industry
have been hard to come so far.
The PT’s main constituency is industrial
workers, and a blow to the steel sector now
would come to represent actual jobs being lost
but also, given steel’s unique role in
supposedly representing a strong and
self-sufficient industrial fabric, a blow to
the credibility of the government.
The government came into office in 2023
promising to create more jobs by reviving
manufacturing. Just like so many other cabinets
had done before it in the past 50 years.
Frong page picture
source: World Steel
Association (Worldsteel)
Insight by Jonathan Lopez
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