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Solar curtailments bullish for Italian power prices – traders
Italian TSO Terna has likely been curtailing solar generation on sunny days with low demand according to traders and publicly available data Market participants told ICIS that curtailments could be bullish for Italian gas and power prices Curtailments aim to safeguard grid stability and could indicate Terna taking cautious approach following Iberian blackout in April LONDON (ICIS)–Several market participants told ICIS that recent curtailments of Italian solar output by the national transmission system operator (TSO) Terna could have a bullish impact on power prices by replacing cheap renewable generation with more expensive gas-fired output. “The Italian TSO has likely been curtailing solar generation, as the forecasts don’t match up with the actual generation levels, especially on festive days with low demand,” a trader told ICIS. A second trader added that the effect would be “decidedly bullish on power and gas”. BEAR OR BULL? Italian solar curtailments are indicative of grid oversupply, which is potentially a bearish indicator for power prices. On 1 May, amid the Labor Day national holiday, low demand and sunny weather, pressures Italian electricity prices to zero or near-zero for seven consecutive hours (11:00-17:00) across all zones. Italian load peaked at 27.7GW on 1 May, some 9.3GW below the peak load average for the month of May so far. The combination of low demand and strong solar led to actual solar generation, as reported by Terna, falling behind ENTSO-E’s Day-ahead forecast for 1 May, a discrepancy which could indicate curtailments. Despite being an indicator of oversupply, according to ICIS Italian power analyst Luca Urbanucci, the impact of the curtailments is ultimately bullish. “If Terna is curtailing solar generation more, this means that low-cost renewable generation is being replaced by something more expensive, like gas”, said Urbanucci. A third trader agreed with this view, claiming that “the impact will be more bullish than bearish”. Perhaps in anticipation of increased prospects of solar curtailments, on 27 March the Italian regulator Arera issued Resolution 128/2025/R/EFR to compensate solar producers for curtailed energy, extending a mechanism that previously applied only to wind power. GRID SECURITY The first trader told ICIS that curtailments were “probably made because Terna is having difficulties balancing the grid”. The first trader also explained Terna’s curtailments could be due to safety reasons. “Curtailments are made in order to have more gas-fired power plants running, so that if solar generation should suddenly and unexpectedly drop due to a passing cloud, gas-fired generation can be quickly ramped up and offset the loss,” the same trader said. A second Italian power analyst noted that “we are also witnessing unplanned import reductions made likewise with the goal of leaving more space for Italian CCGTs”. Keeping additional combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) online could provide both additional grid inertia and ramping capability for the Italian grid. The second trader suggested that the curtailments might be linked to the Italian TSO taking a more cautious approach after the major Iberian blackout on 28 April. However, ICIS’s Urbanucci was skeptical regarding any recent change in Terna’s approach, stating that he did not believe that “Terna’s recent behavior has been particularly influenced by what happened in Spain.” “The Italian TSO has always been quite conservative in avoiding risks of overloading the grid,” said Urbanucci. In April, Italian solar generation was 15.7% higher than in April 2024. Terna did not reply to questions from ICIS by the time of publishing.
Canada’s Alberta province freezes industrial carbon price, cites US tariffs
TORONTO (ICIS)–The government of Canada’s oil-rich Alberta is freezing the province’s industrial carbon price at Canadian dollar (C$) 95/tonne ($68/tonne). The decision to freeze the price indefinitely was in response to the US tariffs, which were increasing costs, disrupting supply chains and creating uncertainty for industry, making it challenging to operate efficiently and stay globally competitive, the government said. The freeze would provide certainty and economic relief to companies in oil and gas, electricity, petrochemical, manufacturing, cement, pulp and paper, mining, and forestry, Premier (Governor) Danielle Smith and environment minister Rebecca Schulz said in a webcast press conference on Monday. Smith said that Canada could not get too far ahead of the US in terms of climate policies, otherwise “billions of dollars of investments” would go to the US, instead of Canada. Schulz added that a price above C$100/tonne would make Alberta “wildly uncompetitive.” The price had been scheduled to rise to C$110/tonne in 2026 and continue increasing to C$170/tonne by 2030 – in line with Canada’s federal industrial carbon pricing system, which sets minimum standards. Smith and Schulz said that the government would talk to companies that have been making investments in Alberta, based on industrial carbon pricing. Schulz added that she had already reached out to Dow, NOVA Chemicals and others to “signal” the government’s new direction, given that “it is a very different time that we are in right now.” “It is unfair to artificially increase a carbon tax to benefit a small amount of projects and then leave the entire rest of industry in a position where they are uncompetitive,” she said. “We can’t make the entirety of industry uncompetitive to save one specific project,” she added. Dow announced last month that it is delaying its flagship Canada Path2Zero net zero carbon cracker and downstream polyethylene (PE) project at Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, until market conditions improve and would not likely revisit it until the end of this year. Trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) supports industrial carbon pricing as a tool to encourage companies to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. However, the trade group has suggested that in light of the ongoing trade and tariff tensions, Canada may want to review its industrial carbon pricing rules. In related news, Alberta’s neighboring Saskatchewan province paused its industrial pricing system, effective 1 April. ($1 = C$1.40) Additional reporting by Joseph Chang Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo source: Dow
Japan’s Nissan Motor to cut 11,000 jobs; swings to yr-to-Mar ’25 loss
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Corp announced on Tuesday a slate of new cost-saving measures, including job cuts of 11,000, after swinging to a net loss of yen (Y) 670.9 billion ($4.5 billion) in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2025. in Japanese yen (Y) billion 1 April 2024-31 March 2025 (FY 2024) 1 April 2023-31 March 2024 (FY 2023) % Change Net Revenue 12,633.20 12,685.70 -0.4 Operating Profit 69.8 568.7 -87.7 Net Income -670.9 426.6 Global sales stood at 3.346 million units, impacted by intensified sales competition. The latest results come after the collapse of multi-billion-dollar merger talks with rival Honda in February 2025 and follows a November 2024 announcement of 9,000 job cuts. The latest reductions will bring the total job losses at Japan’s third-largest carmaker to around 20,000 in the last fiscal year. Nissan also plans to streamline its production by reducing its global plant count from 17 to 10 by 2027. Petrochemicals make up roughly a third of an average vehicle’s raw material costs. The automotive industry is a crucial driver of demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), nylon, polystyrene (PS), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR). Nissan said that it expects business to “continue be challenging with intense competition, forex and inflationary pressure”. “Yet, our efforts related [to] U.S. Tariff policy under our mitigation strategy, we are prioritizing US-built products, optimizing local capacity, reallocating tariff-exposed production, and working closely with suppliers to localize and adapt swiftly to market demands,” the company said. “Given the uncertainty related to tariff environment, the guidance for operating profit, net income and auto free cash flow for the fiscal year are currently to be determined,” it added. ($1 = Y147.9)

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India proposes counter tariffs following US safeguard measures on steel, aluminium
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India has proposed to impose counter duties on select products from the US in response to American tariffs on steel and aluminium, the South Asian nation said in a notice to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 12 May. The US’s tariffs on steel and aluminium were introduced as safeguard measures on 12 March 2025. India reserves the right to suspend concessions or other obligations that are substantially equivalent to the adverse effects of the measure to India’s trade, India said in its statement to the WTO. “The proposed suspension of concessions or other obligations takes the form of an increase in tariffs on selected products originating in the United States,” it added. “The US safeguard measures would affect $7.6 billion imports into the US of the relevant products originating in India, on which the duty collection would be $1.91 billion,” the notice said. In April, India had sought consultations with the US under the WTO’s safeguard agreement, following the US decision to impose these tariffs. On the request for consultation, the US informed the global trade body that its decision was based on national security grounds and should not be considered as safeguard measures. The US first implemented safeguard measures on imports of certain steel and aluminium products in March 2018. It imposed ad valorem tariffs of 25% and 10% respectively. This was extended in January 2020. It was revised again in February 2025 for an unlimited duration and was raised to 25%. In response, India in June 2019 imposed duties on 28 US products, including almonds, walnuts, phosphoric acid, and iron and steel products among others. The proposal assumes significance as both countries are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with an Indian official team expected to visit the US this month for trade talks. The BTA seeks to more than double bilateral trade between the two countries to $500 billion by 2030. Total goods trade between the two countries stood at around $129.2 billion in calendar year 2024, as per official data. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page for the latest update on the US-China 90-day pause with significantly reduced tariffs while negotiations take place.
Asian chemical shares rise on pause in US-China tariff war
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian chemical shares were mostly higher on Tuesday, after the US and China agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on each other for 90 days. At 01:30 GMT on Tuesday, Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals rose by 0.94%, while Asahi Kasei slipped by 0.54% in Tokyo. South Korean producer LG Chem was down 2.38% in Seoul. Malaysia’s PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) was up by 1.71% in Kuala Lumpur, while palm oil and oleochemicals major Wilmar International rose by 0.98% in Singapore. Japan’s bellwether Nikkei 225 was up by 1.84% at 38,335.75, while South Korea’s KOSPI Composite inched up by 0.30% to 2,615.03. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 2.98% at 23,549.46, and the Shenzhen Composite bourse rose by 1.70% to 2,004.13. US chemical stocks closed higher overnight following news of the trade deal. In the US-China agreement announced on 12 May, the US will lower tariffs on imports from China to 30% from the previous “unsustainable” 145%, consisting of a baseline 10% tariff on top of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff. China, meanwhile, lowered its tariffs on the US to just 10% from 125%, while also suspending non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since 2 April. These new measures will take place by 14 May and last for 90 days, according to a joint statement by both parties. The parties will then continue discussions about economic and trade relations, the statement said. However, uncertainty persists as US President Donald Trump seeks talks with China President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, the US’ hefty “reciprocal” tariffs on other major Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, India and southeast Asian countries – first announced on 2 April and then suspended for 90 days – may be implemented in early July. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At the terminal of Shanghai Port in eastern China on 11 May 2025. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
May WASDE projects increase in corn area and yield, lowers outlook for soybeans
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting an increase in corn area and yield which would result in record supplies with lower soybean production forecast, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. The current corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% year on year on increases to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres if realized would be the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. The smaller beginning stocks will partially be offsetting the increase in production, but total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices. US corn exports for 2025-2026 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. The US is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share. Ending stocks are being calculated higher at 385 million bushels, with total corn supply rising more than use, and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-2020. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents from the April update. For soybeans, the outlook shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports and lower ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels based on trend yield and lower area. Soybean supplies are down less than 1% as there was higher beginning stocks but that is facing lower imports and production. The USDA noted that higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America have lifted exportable supply, and despite higher global demand, the US share of global exports is now expected to be at 26%, down from the 28% level a year ago. The May WASDE calculates that soybean exports will be 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, and soybean ending stocks are projected at 295 million bushels, a decrease of 55 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024-2025. The next WASDE report will be released on 12 June.
US farmers continue to make progress as corn 62% completed, soybeans at 48%
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US farmers continue to make good progress on their sowing efforts and have now completed 62% of corn plantings with soybeans at 48%, according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Some states have experienced additional poor weather, highlighted by heavy rainfall, but the current corn rate is above the 47% achieved in 2024 and the five-year average of 56%. North Carolina is now the top state with 86% of their acreage completed, followed by Texas at 84%. There is now 28% of the corn crop which has emerged. This current pace is ahead of the 21% level from 2024 and the five-year average of 21%. For soybeans, 48% of the crop is planted as farmers are outpacing 2024’s rate of 34% as well as the five-year average of 37%. Louisiana continues to be the leading state with 81% of the crop planted, followed by Mississippi at 71%. Cotton plantings have reached 28%, with sorghum now 26% sowed and spring wheat is 66% completed.
US chems shares close higher amid China tariff deal
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Several shares of chemical companies closed sharply higher on Monday after the US and China agreed to sharply reduce their tariffs for 90 days. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 12-May Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 42,410.10 1,160.72 2.81% S&P 500 5,844.19 184.28 3.26% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 822.31 17.02 2.11% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 877.99 15.41 1.79% The lower rates take effect on 14 May. For the US, it will lower its 2025 tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%. The 30% tariff is made up of the 20% fentanyl tariffs that the US adopted earlier in 2025 as well as the 10% baseline tariff that the US has imposed on most of the world. For China, it will cut its 2025 tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. The 10% tariff matches the baseline rate that the US has imposed on Chinese imports. China also suspended the non-tariff measures that it has taken since 2 April. The agreement does not mention the tariffs that China had imposed in February on a limited number of US imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nor does the agreement mention the restrictions on antimony and other minerals that China announced in December 2024 as well as those on bismuth and other minerals announced in February 2025. Monday’s pause does not change the tariffs that the two countries adopted during the first term of US President Donald Trump. Still, the agreement removes a substantial amount of tariffs, which should stimulate some trade. Fitch Ratings estimates that the effective US tariff rate fell to 13.1% from 22.8%. The following table shows the performance of the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 24.21 1.10 4.76% Avient 39.01 2.21 6.01% Axalta Coating Systems 32.7 1.60 5.14% Braskem 3.79 0.17 4.70% Chemours 11.99 0.93 8.41% Celanese 54.53 3.32 6.48% DuPont 71.27 4.50 6.74% Dow 30.98 1.50 5.09% Eastman 82.77 5.27 6.80% HB Fuller 57.03 2.50 4.58% Huntsman 12.93 0.88 7.30% Kronos Worldwide 7.55 0.27 3.71% LyondellBasell 60.68 3.75 6.59% Methanex 34.48 2.04 6.29% NewMarket 636.65 2.17 0.34% Ingevity 43.04 2.57 6.35% Olin 22.86 1.53 7.17% PPG 114.21 5.45 5.01% RPM International 114.27 3.74 3.38% Stepan 55.86 1.96 3.64% Sherwin-Williams 357.15 5.29 1.50% Tronox 5.77 0.52 9.90% Trinseo 2.54 0.02 0.79% Westlake 85.66 5.66 7.07%
Brazil’s Braskem swings to profit in Q1 but global petchems issues remain
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem swung to a net profit in the first quarter, year on year, but sales and earnings fell slightly as the global petrochemicals downturn continues, management at the Brazilian polymers major said on Monday. Speaking to reporters from Sao Paulo, the company’s CEO and CFO described the operating environment as persistently challenging on the back of excess capacity and emerging international trade conflicts. The company’s net profit stood in Q1 at $113 million, up from a net loss of $273 million in the same quarter of 2024, while recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) stood 2% lower, however, at $224 million. Braskem produces mostly polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), some of the most widely used polymers and which remain under intense pressure due to global overcapacities. Braskem (in $ million) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Change Q4 2024 Q1 2025 vs Q4 2024 Sales 3,331 3,618 -8% 3,285 1% Net profit/loss 113 -273 N/A -967 N/A Recurring EBITDA 224 230 -2% 102 121% Brazilian operations achieved 74% utilization rates, up 4% from the previous quarter, while US and European facilities operated at 80% capacity, a 13% improvement, and Mexican operations reached 79% utilization (up 2%). The improved performance was primarily driven by better spreads and increased sales volumes, particularly in Brazil, Europe and the US. CHINA PP COMPETITION: ADDs?Much of the earnings call with reporters on Monday focused on the global trade tensions and competition from Chinese producers, particularly in the Brazilian market. “The question of tariffs generated much instability and many doubts in this first quarter,” said CEO Roberto Ramos, who noted how negotiations over the weekend between China and the US in Switzerland could potentially alter the tariffs war. “This discussion between the two countries should move toward some kind of normality. Therefore, I think when all is said and done, after all this commotion, very little will remain,” he said. He highlighted a few aspects which have affected petrochemicals in the trade war so far, such as China’s decision not to impose retaliatory tariffs on US natural gas-based ethane imports, which he said stand at approximately 18 million tonnes annually. That was a positive, he said, because ethane from the US to China would continue uninterrupted, preventing a scenario where excess ethane in the US would have driven down prices and potentially created advantages for ethane-based producers. Braskem operates most of its plants in Brazil on crude-derived naphtha. However, Chinese authorities did maintain tariffs on propane imports from the US, which affects Chinese PP producers and that did affect Braskem, said the CEO. “China has a surplus in PP, so it is a net exporter, and the main destination of this excess PP production has been precisely Brazil, which has greatly affected us here in the Brazilian market,” said Ramos. “They wanted to become self-sufficient regarding both resins [PP and PE], had a project to become self-sufficient in PP by 2030, but achieved this much earlier, by 2024. Therefore, as there isn’t enough consumption for the resin, they’re forced to sell, and they sell here at a price we can’t compete with.” In response to this competitive pressure, Ramos confirmed Braskem is actively pursuing trade remedies in talks with the authorities, which could, among others, include instruments like antidumping duties (ADDs) against China but also against the US, also a big producer with excess product in some materials. “Yes, we are studying trade protection measures in relation to China, as, moreover, we are also doing in relation to US PE producers, who also place resin here at a lower price than they sell in their respective countries,” he said. Management said they continue to pursue the “switch to gas” strategy, which involves systematically reducing dependence on naphtha as feedstock, particularly in Brazilian operations, in favor of more competitive ethane-based production. Despite recent decreases in oil prices and consequently naphtha prices, executives said the price differential between naphtha and ethane remains substantial at approximately $350-370/tonne, sometimes even higher. RECOVERY STILL WAITINGAlthough some of Braskem’s margin spreads posted improvements during Q1, the CEO was not too optimistic about a strong recovery anytime soon. “I do not imagine that spreads will recover further in the short term, because there is still an excess supply of ethylene but also of propylene, and therefore the plants are operating at lower capacity. Apart from the US producers who are processing at over 90% of their capacity utilization, we here have around 70%, and the Europeans have even less than that,” said the CEO. “As long as this excess installed capacity still exists, as long as the pace of construction of new plants in the US and China continues, there is no reason to imagine that spreads will react, because the supply and demand situation continues to be an excess of supply in relation to demand. “If you have an excess installed capacity of 30 million tonnes of ethylene, for example, therefore of PE, and if the market increases its consumption volume by 5 million tonnes per year, you will need at least six years to be able to clear this excess supply. Therefore, there is no structural reason to think about an increase in spreads.”
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