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TFI ’25: Even with tariff threat and winter lingering, spring outlook from US fertilizer industry quite positive
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs coming in two weeks and winter looking like it wants to linger, possibly through much of February in some states, the US fertilizer industry is quite positive over the near-term direction of domestic products, especially urea. Many participants gathered this week at the first major US fertilizer conference where the strong tone that has been developing to start the year was on full display. The current outlook comes from the lift in near term prices and firm sentiment towards there being good consumption of the volumes already positioned as field work begins in more areas over the rest of this month. There is also an upbeat view towards there being solid demand patterns throughout the season if inventory tightness does not impede that flow, with it widely expected that the current conditions and the arrival of the peak spring season will promote further value escalation in the short-term. Further boosting the overall optimism is this season’s corn plantings with estimates remaining elevated and now ranging between 93 million to 96 million acres potentially. The realization of the higher end of that projection is likely dependent on corn prices being supportive over the next several weeks and there being an early start of field work in key states. It was expressed that the current low inventory of products, especially in nitrogen could become a limiting factor with a source saying, “we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96 million acres”. That these extra sowings would cause a lift in total fertilizer consumption is not for certain. Some of the increased acreage could be on land considered marginal for growing high yielding corn and farmers could chose to do less than they would on prime land or chose a cheaper option. Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from the last crop. When it came to weighing the impacts that fertilizer and agricultural interests within both Canada and the US might face with tariffs there was significant discussions over whether these measures would be imposed or would they not come forth at all. If so, would it be implemented at the full rate of 25% or be placed at a different level higher or lower, with participants almost evenly split between their viewpoints. Those operating in Canada or with interest in product within the country are definitely more vested in these outcomes than others in the industry and their concerns were sharper. As one source said a large spike in values would be the most immediate hit to the markets and more than anything there is “a lot of uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are selling there”. Some participants are also seeing US retailers becoming more cautious about their further commitments even though supply is tight for nitrogen products. In many areas winter weather is keeping activities quite reduced and could keep the northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was still some optimism that some areas could get underway as March begins. If that materializes that would be deemed an early start in some locations, with there being the mindset that the sooner farmers start the more time for fertilizers to be consumed. For now, field work is only underway in the southern states in places that have been warmer and dry but that is only a small portion of what is ahead for spring applications. It was discussed that there are some wheat inputs that have begun, and it is expected that over the coming weeks even more efforts will start where there is good soil moisture for not only ammonia but also urea and UAN applications.
VIDEO: Europe R-PET market sees more bullishness in NWE bales, UK flake
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Higher prices heard for colourless, 80/20 bales in Germany Some UK flake sellers raising offers due to better orders Market looking ahead to March already
INSIGHT: US mulls reciprocal tariffs on Brazil ethanol, cabinet hopes steel quota is to be kept
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Although the new US administration has so far only imposed tariffs on China, President Donald Trump keeps using the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and in the latter part of this week it was the turn of Brazil’s ethanol. Earlier in the week, Brazilian officials had already been in damage limitation mode after the US said it would impose higher tariffs on steel on 12 March. Brazil’s still strong steel sector is now hoping the two countries will agree, just like they did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, a quota so Brazil can have an outlet for its excess steel. ETHANOL IN THE SPOTLIGHTThe Brazilian government has so far kept a low profile in the issues presented to it by the new US Administration; first, it was deportation flights and the rather discrete row caused by the fact that Brazilians returning home did so handcuffed in the aircraft. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, however, was wary of how his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro, reacted to the first deportation flights – taking to social media to say Colombia’s sovereignty could never be curtailed, after he ordered two flights to return to the US. Trump’s furious reaction on a Sunday afternoon in his first week in the White House sent the signal to allies – Colombia is a firm ally of the US in the region – and enemies alike about the new winds blowing in Washington. As already said, Brazil’s cabinet also kept a rather low profile about the tariffs on steel. The week started with a report by Folha de S. Paulo citing an unnamed cabinet official saying Brazil could retaliate by raising taxes on the US technological majors operating in the country. The Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was quick to deny such a possibility a few hours later, and what could have become a big row died down. But then came a White House announcement on reciprocal tariffs later in the week, and the US intention to analyze country by country all tariffs and end “unfair trade practices.” The US mentioned specifically Brazilian ethanol as a prime example of those unfair trade practices, something the US trade group for the sector, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), was quick to grasp after years of lobbying. “The US is one of the most open economies in the world, yet our trading partners keep their markets closed to our exports. This lack of reciprocity is unfair and contributes to our large and persistent annual trade deficit,” said the White House. “There are endless examples where our trading partners do not give the US reciprocal treatment. [For example] The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5%. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18%.” The White House went on to say the US posted a trade deficit with Brazil of $148 million in 2024, which it attributed to the effect of the country’s higher import tariff. Brazil’s exports to the US totaled $200 million last year, while US shipments stood at $48 million. With Brazil featuring so prominently in one of the White House’s dozens of weekly press releases, it was difficult for the cabinet to remain in the background, aware that ethanol is an important employer and, in a way, Brazil’s own success story. In the 1970’s crude oil prices shock, the country took the strategic decision to encourage ethanol as a motor fuel, propping up at the same time what was then a nascent agribusiness which became one of the world’s breadbaskets, owing to Brazil’s vast arable land and abundant water and warm weather. Ethanol, therefore, required a stronger response, and the cabinet’s measured statement decided to focus on sugar. The minister for energy and mines – a heavyweight in any Brazilian government – was the one in charge to remind the US that if all tariffs should be reciprocal, Brazil would very much like to see the hefty tariffs on its sugar lowered. Alexandre Silveira argued that Brazil’s sugar had to pay an 81.16% import tariff to enter the US, without offering anything in return. “To have a fair and reciprocal plan, as stated by President Trump, it would be necessary, in fact, to eliminate import tariffs for Brazilian sugar,” he said, as quoted by CNN Brazil. “Trump’s decision is unreasonable, as there is no counterpart in expanding Brazilian sugar exports to the US. This type of stance weakens multilateralism and will have negative consequences for the US economy itself.” As soon as Brazil’s ethanol featured on the White House’s communication, the US trade group RFA’s CEO issued a statement celebrating that after a decade spending “precious time and resources fighting back against an unfair and unjustified tariff regime” imposed by Brazil on US ethanol exports, the lobbying had finally paid off. “What’s more ironic is that these tariff barriers have been erected against US ethanol imports while our country has openly accepted – and even encouraged and incentivized – ethanol imports from Brazil,” said Geoff Cooper. STEEL TARIFFSJust like everyone else, the Brazilian cabinet is trying to adapt to the fast pace of another Trump presidency. For much of the first half of this week, ministers in public and steel industry players in private went from panic mode to talks mode as the 12 March implementation date offers room for that. Brazil’s officials are hopeful a new quota can be agreed with the US, after pressure from manufacturing companies in the US persuaded Trump during his first term to establish a 3.5-million tonne quota for steel semi-finished products and slabs, and a 687,000 tonne quota of rolled products. In the current environment, the repetition of that deal would a be a resounding success for Brazil’s steel producers. Brazil’s produces around 32 million tonnes of steel annually, according to trade group the Steel Brazil Institute, but the country’s demand stands at 24 million. This means the sector must find markets overseas, and for the past few years nearly half of that has been going to the US as per the quota agreed. The large US trade deficit in steel is shown by the 20-25 million tonnes/year imported. In the nine months to September 2024, the US had imported 20.2 million tonnes, according to the US International Trade Administration. Brazil, with 16.7% market share in those imports entering the US, is the second largest supplier only behind Canada (22.5%), followed by Mexico (11.4%), South Korea (10.1%), Vietnam (4.6%), and Japan (4.0%), according to the official data. If the universal tariffs on steel are finally implemented on 12 March, Brazil’s quota would also come to an end. This is where Brazilian officials will put much of its efforts in the next four weeks, an attempt which may well end up being successful if US manufacturers are listened to. Earlier this week, an economist at ICIS warned that higher steel tariffs would likely increase prices in US manufacturing and could potentially reduce levels of capital expenditure (capex) in new plants. The US is heavily reliant in steel imports to cover its demand. “A tariff raises the price in the market as domestic steel producers raise the price for steel to match the tariff… Higher price lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but does increase quantity supplied by domestic producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic products to produce when then they could not have done so without the tariff,” said Kevin Swift. “Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc. These will especially hurt when government policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign direct investment] in the US.” US manufacturers likely to be lobbying for exceptions to the steel tariffs are set to be Brazil’s best ally in the next four weeks, considering Trump’s chauvinistic approach to most things. Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) re-election in the presidential election due in 2026 hangs in the balance. While manufacturing had a bumper 2024, more formal and better-paid jobs in industry have been hard to come so far. The PT’s main constituency is industrial workers, and a blow to the steel sector now would come to represent actual jobs being lost but also, given steel’s unique role in supposedly representing a strong and self-sufficient industrial fabric, a blow to the credibility of the government. The government came into office in 2023 promising to create more jobs by reviving manufacturing. Just like so many other cabinets had done before it in the past 50 years. Frong page picture source: World Steel Association (Worldsteel) Insight by Jonathan Lopez

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Eurozone GDP beats out flash estimates to grow 0.1% in Q4
LONDON (ICIS)–The eurozone economy expanded 0.1% in the closing three months of 2024, statistics body Eurostat said on Friday, an uptick from earlier estimates indicating the region ground to a halt during the period. Modest revised fourth-quarter growth comes despite a 0.2% contraction in German growth, a 0.1% fall in France and zero growth in Italy. Growth was stronger in the Netherlands, which saw a 0.4% increase in GDP during the period, and the Polish economy, which expanded 1.3%. The EU economy grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Eurozone 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 EU 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2
UK economy shows little growth in Q4 after trending down through 2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The UK economy showed little growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 with GDP rising just 0.1% after trending down throughout the year. Services sector output grew by 0.2% in Q4, construction was up 0.5% while production fell by 0.8%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday. Economic growth tailed off through 2024 with GDP growing 0.8% in Q1, 0.4% in Q2 and 0.0% in Q3. The Bank of England cut interest rates again last week as it tries to balance low growth against relatively high inflation. The eurozone’s economy also struggled in Q4 with GDP flat at 0.0% growth from the previous quarter.
INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions to US as PM Modi meets Trump
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on various products, including electronics and automobiles – major downstream sectors of petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports. India PM Modi in US for state visit on 12-13 February Tariff cuts incorporated in India budget for year to March 2026 India braces for impact from US’ 25% tariffs on all steel, aluminium imports Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet with Trump in Washington on Thursday – their first meeting since Trump assumed office for a second term. The US has not imposed any direct tariffs on India yet. However, the world’s biggest economy is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on any countries with tariffs on US goods. India’s tariffs on agricultural, mining and manufacturing products from the US were in double-digits, while US tariffs for the same products from India were in the low single-digit levels. The south Asian country, which is a giant emerging market in Asia, is expected to offer tariff cuts on more than 30 goods, as well as increase the purchase of US defence and energy products, according to analysts at Japanese brokerage firm Nomura, in a research note on 10 February. India’s national budget for the next fiscal year starting April 2025 contained provisions reducing import duties on some goods including electronics, textiles, intermediate goods used for technology manufacturing and satellites, synthetic flavouring essences and motorcycles, which are expected to benefit US-based companies. It was largely seen as a pre-emptive move to thwart reciprocal tariffs from the US under Trump. India may consider further tariff reductions on luxury vehicles, solar cells, and chemicals, as part of its strategy to maintain smooth trade relations, according to analysts from Nomura. “We are analysing the announcements made by the US on increasing tariffs,” an official from India’s Ministry of Commerce said. “We are also asking our industry how these tariffs are going to affect them positively or negatively and are looking at the impact of the tariffs that have already been imposed,” he said. DIALING DOWN ON PROTECTIONIST STANCE India has much higher tariff rates compared with other countries in Asia. Amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from the US, India is being forced to backtrack on its protectionist policy, at least where the US is concerned, while maintaining a tough stance on rival Asian giant China. In year to March 2024, the US was India’s largest export destination and accounted for nearly 18% of the country’s total merchandise exports of $437.10 billion, official data showed. Key Indian exports to the US include industrial machinery, gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals, fuels, iron and steel, textiles, vehicles, and chemicals. US’ exports to India, meanwhile, accounted for just 2% of total US shipments abroad in January-December 2024. A mutually beneficial tariff regime could be struck between then as India seeks to further boost exports to the world’s biggest economy. The US’ recent tariff hikes on China opens up opportunities for Indian exporters to increase their share in the US market. For instance, India’s exports of auto components to the US are currently very low, accounting for only 2% of the US market, underscoring scope for expansion. Between April and September 2024, the country’s total exports of auto parts stood at $11.1 billion, a third of which – or $3.67 billion – were shipped to the US, according to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA). Over the past few years, India has adopted trade measures like import certification under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), increased antidumping duties on various products, including petrochemicals, to limit imports and boost domestic production. While some of these policies apply globally, some of them are directed at China, which is a major exporter of goods to India. While the tariffs are worrisome, certain sectors like auto components, mobiles and electronics, electronic machinery, apparel, leather and footwear, furniture, pharmaceutical and toys could see an increase in demand from US buyers, the commerce ministry official said. India is a major exporter of pharmaceutical products to the US but relies on China for 70% of raw material called active pharmaceutical ingredients (API). The US accounted for over 31% of India’s total pharmaceutical exports of $27.9 billion in year to March 2024. IMPORTS OF US LNG TO GROW; US’ TARIFFS ON STEEL, ALUMINIUM WORRY INDIA The south Asian country is expected to increase its petroleum product imports from the US, to alleviate trade imbalances. For the fiscal year 2023-24, India imported $12.96 billion worth of petroleum oil and products from the US, according to official data. India’s state-owned oil and gas companies, including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), are in active discussions with American suppliers to import more LNG from the US, petroleum secretary Pankaj Jain said on 10 February. The recent announcement of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US could heavily impact India. While Indian steel exports to the US are relatively small, the US tariffs could cause exporting nations to redirect their goods to the Indian markets. India is both a major exporter as well as importer of steel, on which a basic customs duty of around 7-8% apply – much lower than the US’ 25% – raising fears of supply flooding the south Asian country. With the US shutting its doors to global steel, the surplus will inevitably be redirected to India, threatening our domestic industry with market distortions, price crashes, and unfair competition, Indian Steel Association (ISA) Naveen Jindal said said in an official statement on 11 February. “The US, a major steel importer, has historically imposed strict trade restrictions, with over 30 remedial actions in force against Indian steel – some for more than three decades,” Jindal said. “This latest tariff is expected to slash steel exports to the US by 85%, creating a massive surplus that will likely flood India,” he added. While only 5% of the total steel exports from India go to the US, the country accounts for nearly 12% of India’s aluminium exports. Both steel and aluminium industries use chemicals like caustic soda and soda ash during the production process. Insight article by Priya Jestin With contributions from Nurluqman Suratman and Pearl Bantillo
UPDATE: Indonesia proposes final ADDs on PP block copolymer imports
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping duties (ADDs) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports, according to a document obtained by ICIS on Thursday. The final ADD recommendations on the material with HS code 3902.30.90 are still subject to approval by relevant authorities, with no timeline for implementation, as yet. Market participants expect a final decision to be announced in the next one to two months. The final ADDs suggested for imports from South Korea range from 7.17% to 19.58%, down from previously proposed rates of up to 82.83%, according to the document. For imports from Vietnam, the UAE, Malaysia and Singapore, the recommended rates are 11.40%, 21.02%, 13.45-29.01%, and 11.60-13.06%, respectively. KADI initiated the antidumping investigation on PP block copolymer resins imports in 2023, following a request from Indonesian PP producer Chandra Asri. PP block copolymer is widely used in packaging, automotive parts, electronic devices and other goods that require enhanced toughness and flexibility. (Adds details throughout) Infogram by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At the Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia on 19 June 2024. (BAGUS INDAHONO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Indonesia proposes antidumping duties on PP block copolymer imports
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping duties (ADD) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports, according to a document obtained by ICIS on Thursday. The proposed ADDs on the material with HS code 3902.30.90 are still subject to approval by relevant authorities, with no timeline for implementation, as yet. Market participants expect a final decision to be announced in the next one to two months.
EDITOR’S VIEW: Gas price caps are not a solution to Europe’s industrial decline
Additional reporting by Ed Cox LONDON (ICIS)–The 2022 energy crisis has left the EU between a rock and a hard place. Record gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war combined with costly climate policies to deal a heavy blow to industrial production, triggering widespread plant closures and an economic downturn. The ensuing need to respond to industrial decline while also stemming social and political turmoil caused by soaring energy costs prompted lawmakers to adopt a controversial wholesale gas price cap, which expired at the end of January. Although prices have fallen since the record levels seen in 2022 they remain stubbornly high by historical standards and have recorded a sustained increase so far in 2025. This has further heightened calls from large consumers to push for urgent measures to curb energy costs, fearing the imminent collapse of industrial production. And the concerns are legitimate. Europe faces geopolitical volatility and growing competition from China and the US. However, reports that the EU may now consider introducing a new gas price cap to stave off industrial decline should come under public scrutiny because of serious risks. A first risk relates to the fact that a price cap would impair the market’s ability to attract more supply if needed. Such a risk would be both short- and long-term as European buyers have secured only a fraction of the LNG volumes already contracted by Asian companies. In January 2025, LNG covered almost 37% of EU and British gas supply, according to ICIS data. However, putting a figure on the percentage of Europe’s contracted LNG relative to future demand is challenging. This is in part due to great uncertainty over Europe’s gas demand alongside the complexities of LNG contracts. But the underlying message that Europe only contracts a portion of its LNG demand – and is heavily dependent on market prices to attract remaining supply – is correct. The need for a robust, market-based TTF reference price in reflecting Europe’s LNG demand relative to other markets will only increase in line with a dependency on US LNG imports, and in the event that Russian pipeline gas does not return. Beyond 2023, the majority of LNG contracts with European companies are for supply from the US on a free-on-board basis, meaning there is no contractual commitment to deliver to Europe. Price signals from buyers in Europe, Asia, South America and the Middle East play a key role in determining the destination of these cargoes. Europe has only received sufficient LNG in recent months to cover gas demand because the TTF has pulled supplies inwards, and away from other global buyers. Large future LNG contracts are also in place with Qatar, but they typically contain diversion rights. It has not been the policy of the EU, nor of European LNG buyers, to commit to large, fixed-destination contracts given the expected long-term drop in Europe’s gas demand. In any case, few sellers would commit to such business with the prospect of a price cap and with other global buyers potentially more attractive. And there are other risks related to financial stability and the credibility of EU markets as they would no longer accurately reflect the bloc’s supply-demand balance. An artificially capped price could lead to higher margin requirements but would also put a strain on the EU’s overall budget, leading to soaring debt. This is because of the gap between regulated and free market prices, which would ultimately have to be borne by EU taxpayers. The EU might consider other options such as reducing regulations and red tape, or ensuring companies have all the flexibility they need to attract more supplies. Although the EU has a fine line to tread – preserving the bloc’s competitiveness while ensuring security of gas supply – introducing a gas price cap would have a deeply harmful impact on markets.
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