TORONTO (ICIS)–Pembina Pipeline does not expect material near-term impacts from the US tariffs or from the delay of Dow’s Path2Zero petrochemicals project in Alberta province, the top executives of the Canadian midstream energy company told analysts in an update on Friday. TARIFFS Given the “highly contracted” take-or-pay nature of Pembina’s energy business, there should be no material near-term impacts from tariffs, they said. Also, Pembina’s energy products were compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, they added and went on to note that USMCA-compliant products were currently not subject to the 10% US tariff on energy. Furthermore, so far, the company has not observed any significant changes to producer activity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) because of the tariffs, they said. PATH2ZEROPembina executives noted that although Dow delayed Path2Zero, it reiterated its commitment to the project. Therefore, other than changing the in-service timelines, the delay should have no impact on Pembina’s agreement to supply Path2Zero with ethane, they said. Up till now, Pembina has not spent “material capital” on building capacity and infrastructure to support the ethane supply agreement, and it does not expect to do so in 2025, they said. The company would continue to assess options on how to supply the ethane in the most cost-effective way, and the delay would give it more time to do so, they said. Options included building an additional de-ethanizer tower at Pembina’s Redwater fractionation complex in Alberta, they said. Analysts asked whether the supply deal included a “sunset clause” in case the Path2Zero delay should turn out to be substantial, but the Pembina executives declined to comment on this. An analyst also asked whether Canadian policies or other factors may have played a part in the delay of Path2Zero, but the Pembina executives decline to comment. Canada’s federal government in March suspended the country’s consumer carbon tax but left industrial carbon pricing in place. Carbon pricing is key in ensuring the viability of low-emissions industrial projects. Trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) supports industrial carbon pricing as a tool to encourage companies to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. However, the trade group has suggested that in light of the ongoing trade and tariff tensions, Canada may want to review its industrial carbon pricing rules. Thumbnail Photo: Pembina’s Redwater fractionation complex northeast of Edmonton, Alberta. (Source: Pembina)

LONDON (ICIS)–Raphael Jaumotte, technical manager at Petcore Europe, speaks to Matt Tudball, ICIS senior editor of recycling, about the Petcore Europe Thermoforms Conference on 27-28 May in Dijon, France. Details of the event can be found via Petcore’s website. Petcore Europe’s third dedicated thermoforming conference will focus on PET thermoform circularity, and ask: ‘How can collection and sorting of PET thermoforms be improved?’ Topics discussed include: Petcore Europe’s work in connecting the thermoforming industry Challenges of sorting and collection Impact of regulation on the thermoforming market The need for collaboration in the industry New offerings and services that have come out of industry discussions

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: FD NWE bale, flake and food-grade pellet prices rise for May Eastern, southern Europe and UK colourless flake also up Recyclers question how long current levels can be sustained

LONDON (ICIS)–Premiums for used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME) were under pressure following a controversial move from the German government to release previously-blocked proof of sustainability (POS) certificates from a suspended hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) producer. Price impact on the spot European biodiesel market, more specifically on UCOME, materialized quickly with sharp drops over the two days since the news emerged on Tuesday. In an official statement,  the federal office of agriculture and food (BLE) said that following an investigation, it held “a strong suspicion that the HVO producer does not exist”, but made the decision to validate the POS certificates. The tickets are used to verify the sustainability of a biofuel. One source highlighted a significant market impact following the re-entry of the controversial tickets, adding that prices collapsed in a short span of two days. “It killed the UCOME market,” said the market source. Spot premiums for UCOME over gasoil dropped by US$ 75/tonne week on week, to reach US$ 780-790/tonne FOB ARA. A second player agreed the market had been “quite weak” since the news came out. A BLE press officer told ICIS on Friday the unblocking of the POS certificates takes “into account the possible protection of confidence” in line with the Biofuels Sustainability Ordinance, known in Germany as Biokraft-NachV. Controversy emerged as market participants voiced concerns over the release of the previously suspended proof of sustainability (POS) certificates back into the market and fuelling an oversupply. Issues began to emerge at the start of the year. The investigation also showed biofuels sustainability verification scheme ISCC suspended the user’s certification in January. The government statement, published on Tuesday, also voiced doubts over the existence of the supplier which was meant to be based in the Netherlands. The HVO producer had been using the country’s Nabisy biofuels compliance registry, but its access has been revoked. In contrast, premiums for fatty acid methyl ester (FAME 0) and rapeseed methyl ester (RME) rose slightly this week. The German government said the Nabisy ticket scheme user, the HVO producer, used an address in the United Arab Emirates, but during an associated audit report had given a different address in Hong Kong. The impacted Nabisy users were asked to provide a “self-declaration on compliance”. The government statement also indicated further steps “in criminal law” were being considered.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s Indorama Ventures Limited (IVL) swung to a net loss of $39 million in Q1 on a year-on-year basis, official data showed on Friday. in $ million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 % change Revenue 3,487 3,812 -9 Adjusted EBITDA 276 396 -30 Net profit -39 32 – Production volumes declined in Q1, reflecting reduced output due to scheduled turnarounds at two Intermediate Chemicals facilities and weather-related disruptions from the US winter freeze, IVL said in a statement. Lower ocean freight rates and higher energy costs also contributed to lost profits, IVL said. There was a significant decline in ocean freight rates during the quarter, which lowered import parity levels and, in turn, weighed on product margins across the portfolio. Total production fell by 5% quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 6% year on year (YoY) to 3.27m tonnes, while sales volumes slipped by 4% QoQ and 8% YoY to 3.24m tonnes. The combined polyethylene terephthalate (CPET) with Intermediate Chemicals sector delivered adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $126 million for the first quarter, a 50% drop year on year from the same period in 2024. $94 million was used in growth capital expenditure (capex) towards recycling projects, residual capex related to the Mocksville site and others. IVL’s 2025 refinancing plan is on track, it said, with a focus on extending out debt maturity and securing lower spreads. The long-term strategy for the company includes three core priorities: namely, forging strategic partnerships, driving expansion in high-growth markets such as India and Africa, and maintaining financial discipline through deleveraging and targeted capital allocation. IVL said cross-border exposure is limited as the majority of their products are consumed within the same country they are produced, mitigating risk and economic uncertainty. The acquisition of a 24.9% stake in India-listed specialty packaging firm EPL is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 2025, IVL said.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook that in the near-term it expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive. The producer highlighted in its earnings release that global pricing was supported in Q1 of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports. CF said there is anticipated strong demand from not only global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, but because there is below average global inventories and challenging production economics in Europe. Looking at North America, CF said there should be strong nitrogen demand during the spring application season due to favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans, which is driving higher planted corn acres in 2025. The producer noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this season. For Brazil, the company expects the country will remain the largest urea import region, with imports projected to exceed 8 million tonnes, with this outlook supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production. In India, there is less urea inventory with CF saying that lower-than-targeted domestic production and higher year on year urea sales pushed urea inventory levels down by approximately 35% compared to March 2024. As a result, their management expects higher urea import requirements for the rest of this year to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks. Across Europe the producer is projecting that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. For China, CF said the ongoing urea export controls continue to limit availability from the country with minimal volumes concluded in Q1 of 2025. The company feels that urea exports will not resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest. In Russia, urea exports are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil. CF also is expecting that over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure would then remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. In the longer-term view CF is projecting that the global nitrogen supply demand balance will further tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is forecasted to not keep pace with the expected rise in global demand. Those needs are anticipated to have a growth rate of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and see more new demand emerging for clean energy applications. CF has a view that global production will remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US and UK announced the first trade deal since the US 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs which would open up UK market access for US chemicals, machinery, beef, ethanol and other agricultural products, government officials said. The deal also opens up US market access for UK autos, steel and aluminium, and beef. US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal in a press conference on the 8 May. While the deal will be finalized in the coming weeks with full details, officials revealed certain aspects of the agreement. Trump and Starmer spoke on the phone in front of the press, and then each ran separate press conferences. US tariffs of 10% on UK imports will remain in place but sectoral auto tariffs will fall from 25% to 10% for UK vehicles, as stated in the US press conference. There was an existing US tariff of 2.5% for imported vehicles prior to the sectoral tariffs, but the final auto tariff level for the UK would be 10%. This would apply to a quota of the first 100,000 cars, almost the total the UK exported in 2024, according to the UK government. The US reciprocal tariffs revealed on 2 April included the minimum 10% level for the UK where the US runs a goods trade surplus. In 2024, the US exported $79.9 billion in goods to the UK and imported $68.1 billion in goods for a trade surplus of $11.8 billion, according to the US Trade Representative. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium would be slashed to zero for imports from the UK, as indicated in the UK press conference. UK Rolls Royce aircraft engines and other aircraft parts would also face no US tariff. The opening up of new markets to US exports would add, “$5 billion of opportunity”, for US exporters, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. “Work will continue on the remaining sectors – such as pharmaceuticals and remaining reciprocal tariffs. But – in an important move – the US has agreed that the UK will get preferential treatment in any further tariffs imposed as part of Section 232 investigations,” said the UK government in a statement. In terms of a template for additional deals, Trump said that 10% tariffs is the floor with some much higher. OPTIMISM ON CHINA TARIFFSHe also expressed optimism that tariffs between the US and China would be lowered. The US has a 145% tariff on imports from China with some exemptions, and China has imposed a 125% tariff on imports from the US with certain reported exemptions.

European Parliament signs off storage filling approach Negotiations to find a compromise between approach of Parliament and EU countries can begin First talks to take place on 13 May LONDON (ICIS)–Talks to find a compromise on lowering the EU’s gas storage targets will begin on 13 May, after the European Parliament adopted its negotiating mandate in a vote on 8 May. Legislators greenlit the committee on industry, research and energy (ITRE)’s proposal that would lower the fill target to 83% but allow for a target to fall as low as 75% depending on market conditions. The house also approved an amendment calling for countries to “refrain from storing gas of Russian origin” and for the EU to pursue an immediate end to Russian gas and LNG imports. A delegation from the Parliament will now begin so-called trilogue negotiations with countries, represented by the Council of the EU, and with the European Commission also attending. EU diplomats agreed the Council position on 11 April, with a target of 80% in unfavourable market conditions, although a general aim of 90% full remains. The rules would extend gas filling obligations beyond their current expiry at the end of the year through the end of 2027. Lawmakers have indicated they wish for the rules to apply to the rest of 2025, but these cannot take effect until a deal is done and published in the Union’s official journal. Market expectations of a deal have caused the Dutch TTF Q3 ’25 gas contract to flip to a discount to the front winter as the EU legislative process has progressed. ICIS assessments showed the TTF Q3 ’25 discount averaged €0.548/MWh below Winter ’25 between 9-23 April, correlating with details of the Council position. The spread widened to €0.955/MWh from 24 April-7 May, after the ITRE committee vote suggested a speedy resolution to negotiations. The Dutch TTF Q3 ’25 held an average premium of €2.769 over Winter ’25 during the first three months of 2025. PROPOSAL DETAILS The proposal, in line with the Council’s position, provides a window between 1 October-1 December for shippers to meet the target. This time range would allow more flexibility, “which would mean that at key deadlines gas prices would not be much higher”, ITRE committee chair Boris Budka, who leads the parliament’s work on the file, told MEPs on 7 May. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen signalled that the European Commission would work with the co-legislators to ensure a swift compromise in trilogues. “I agree that such flexibility can alleviate the current market situation, and I trust that an agreement could be reached soon,” Jorgensen said. Poland, which holds the rotating Council presidency until June, has stated a desire to reach a provisional deal by the end of its mandate, but the timescales remain uncertain. LAWMAKER VIEWS There was much political consensus around lowering the targets, with German MEP Andrea Wechsler saying a return to a market-based structure was vital, due to the distortions created by the rules. The centre-right European People’s Party grouping, the house’s largest, called for “a new balance between supply, security and market circumstances and thinking in free-market terms as well,” she said. However, Yvan Verougstraete of the centrist Renew group called for Europe to take further action by developing North Sea gas reserves and creating a 90-day strategic gas reserve similar to the one for oil.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Solvay’s Q1 underlying net profit from continuing operations fell to €102 million year on year from €119 million during the same period in 2024 on customer caution arising from macroeconomic uncertainty, the Belgian chemicals firm said on Thursday. In € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 % Change Net sales 1,122 1,201 -6.6 EBITDA 250 265 -5.9 Underlying net profit from continuing operations 102 119 -14.3 Basic Chemicals sales in Q1 2025 were down by -6.0% compared to Q1 2024, the company said. There was some softness in Soda Ash as customers displayed caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in March. Meanwhile, Solvay’s underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin for Q1 rose by 0.2 percentage points to 22.3% year on year from 22.1% in the same period in 2024. Soda Ash & Derivatives sales for the quarter were down by -11.0% due to demand in Europe and the US remaining low, while exports through sea were softer sequentially, especially in southeast Asia. However, bicarbonate demand remained strong, fueled by global trends. “The current macro environment is uncertain and filled with challenges that were not foreseen at the start of the year. However, our resilient global and local to local business model will allow us to navigate these challenges,” said Solvay CEO Philippe Kehren. Solvay expects underlying EBITDA for 2025 to be between €1.0 billion and €1.1 billion, towards the lower half of the range if current market conditions and currency exchange rates prevail. Cost savings are expected at €200 million by the end of 2025.