SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 9 May. S Arabia’s SABIC swings to Q1 net loss amid higher operating costs By Jonathan Yee 05-May-25 11:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–SABIC swung to a net loss of Saudi riyal (SR) 1.21 billion ($323 million) in the first quarter on the back of higher feedstock prices and operating costs, the Saudi Arabian chemicals giant said on 4 May. Ethane fuss cools for NE Asia C2, positions reassessed over Labor Day break By Josh Quah 05-May-25 20:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The early May holidays probably could not have come at a more appropriate time for Asia ethylene players, with players noting that the pause in spot discussions was a good time to take stock of positions going into June shipment talks. Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan narrows Q1 net loss on improved margins By Nurluqman Suratman 06-May-25 14:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–LOTTE Chemical Titan (LCT) narrowed its first quarter (Q1) net loss to ringgit (M$) 125.7 million ($29.7 million) amid improved margins, the Malaysian producer said on 5 May. Singapore’s Aster acquires CPSC at undisclosed fee By Nurluqman Suratman 07-May-25 12:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Aster Chemicals and Energy has reached a sales and purchase agreement to acquire Chevron Phillips Singapore Chemicals (CPSC) through its affiliate, Chandra Asri Capital, at an undisclosed fee, the Singapore-based producer said on Wednesday. Vietnam’s economy to slow despite exports jump, lower inflation – Moody’s By Jonathan Yee 07-May-25 16:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating trade tensions with the US are casting a shadow over Vietnam’s growth trajectory in 2025, despite continued growth in exports as well as lower inflation. China SM plagued by weak fundamentals and falling feedstock By Aviva Zhang 07-May-25 16:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s styrene monomer (SM) prices fell sharply in April, as a result of decreasing crude oil prices and weak end-user demand expectations caused by the China-US tariff conflicts. The domestic market is likely to face headwinds from supply, feedstock and downstream sectors in May. Asia refined glycerine trades to Europe to be spurred by weak Chinese demand By Helen Yan 08-May-25 14:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–European demand for refined glycerine may lend support to regional glycerine producers in southeast Asia, who have been faced with persistently sluggish Chinese demand. Asia VAM plant margins to get a lift from westbound trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 09-May-25 13:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) producers are eyeing improved netbacks from expansion in westbound shipments as regional trade margins narrow into the second quarter. Asia capro remains pressured by weak benzene, cautious demand outlook By Isaac Tan 09-May-25 13:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot prices for caprolactam (capro) in Asia continued to soften in the week ending 7 May, weighed down by persistent losses in the upstream benzene market and a lack of recovery in downstream demand. China Apr export growth slows to 8.1% amid tariff uncertainty By Nurluqman Suratman 09-May-25 16:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s export growth slowed to 8.1% year on year in April from 12.4% in March in US dollar terms, underscoring the increasing impact of US tariffs amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential trade agreement.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers were stable to higher this week as carriers have reduced capacity by 4-5% along the trade route amid efforts to stop the slide in prices, but capacity could surge and put downward pressure on rates if the Red Sea ceasefire holds. On 6 May, US president Donald Trump announced that a peace deal had been struck between the US and Houthi rebels, which would bring attacks against shipping to an end in the Red Sea. Since the start of 2024, traffic through the Suez Canal has collapsed and remains at roughly half pre-Gaza conflict levels. CONTAINER RATES Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos were flat week on week, and supply chain advisors Drewry showed a 4% increase in rates from Shanghai to New York and a 5% increase from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to be less volatile in the coming week as carriers are reorganizing their capacity to reflect a lower volume of cargo bookings from China. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said many US importers have paused orders out of China, but shippers (as well as manufacturers) can hold out only so long before consumers will start to see empty shelves or higher prices. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see its first year-on-year decline in over a year and a half this month as the effect of tariffs increases, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, said carriers have reduced capacity by 4-5% in April and May on the transpacific trade lane. “When we look across what was deployed in April and what is scheduled for May combined, blanked capacity accounts for 19% of the total Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC) planned capacity, and 17% of the total Asia to North America East Coast (NAEC) planned capacity, across those two months,” Murphy said. “But a high level of blank sailings does not automatically translate into a large reduction of capacity year on year, if the originally planned level of capacity, without blank sailings, constituted a large increase in capacity deployment on a year-on-year basis,” Murphy said. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are seeing fewer arrivals than normal. “For example, only 22 arrived the first five days of May, whereas 28.5 arrivals would be normal,” Louttit said. “Only nine are scheduled to arrive in the next three days, whereas 17 in three days would be normal.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES UNCHANGED US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady this week with rates remaining unchanged week on week despite continuing to see downward pressure for several trade lanes. For yet another week, there is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode. Besides contract of affreightment (COA) cargoes, there is very little seen in the market. The tariffs and uncertainty continue to dampen the spot market, pressuring rates. As a result, owners are sending fewer vessels and therefore keeping rates stable for now due to the lack of available tonnage. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA and all other trade lanes also held steady. Although COA volumes are lower there are also fewer spot inquiries available. Despite the lack of interest, rates remain unchanged as the clean petroleum products (CPP) market continues to remain soft leaving those vessels to participate in the chemical sector and pressuring chemical rates lower. However, several cargoes of styrene, methanol and caustic soda continue to be seen in the market. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane had seen more inquiries, but there is plenty of available space for the balance of May lending downward pressure to spot rates. This is leaving most owners still trying to fill up prompt partial space to WCSAM and to ECSAM for 2H May. Rates are soft and have lost some ground. During the past week large parcels of MEG and caustic soda were seen in the market and as well as a CPP cargo further demonstrating the length in the market and weighing down on rates. Along the USG to India route the spot market is stable and with its usual slow pace. No new cargoes have been heard from the US. With additional reporting by Will Beacham and Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

TORONTO (ICIS)–Pembina Pipeline does not expect material near-term impacts from the US tariffs or from the delay of Dow’s Path2Zero petrochemicals project in Alberta province, the top executives of the Canadian midstream energy company told analysts in an update on Friday. TARIFFS Given the “highly contracted” take-or-pay nature of Pembina’s energy business, there should be no material near-term impacts from tariffs, they said. Also, Pembina’s energy products were compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, they added and went on to note that USMCA-compliant products were currently not subject to the 10% US tariff on energy. Furthermore, so far, the company has not observed any significant changes to producer activity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) because of the tariffs, they said. PATH2ZEROPembina executives noted that although Dow delayed Path2Zero, it reiterated its commitment to the project. Therefore, other than changing the in-service timelines, the delay should have no impact on Pembina’s agreement to supply Path2Zero with ethane, they said. Up till now, Pembina has not spent “material capital” on building capacity and infrastructure to support the ethane supply agreement, and it does not expect to do so in 2025, they said. The company would continue to assess options on how to supply the ethane in the most cost-effective way, and the delay would give it more time to do so, they said. Options included building an additional de-ethanizer tower at Pembina’s Redwater fractionation complex in Alberta, they said. Analysts asked whether the supply deal included a “sunset clause” in case the Path2Zero delay should turn out to be substantial, but the Pembina executives declined to comment on this. An analyst also asked whether Canadian policies or other factors may have played a part in the delay of Path2Zero, but the Pembina executives decline to comment. Canada’s federal government in March suspended the country’s consumer carbon tax but left industrial carbon pricing in place. Carbon pricing is key in ensuring the viability of low-emissions industrial projects. Trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) supports industrial carbon pricing as a tool to encourage companies to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. However, the trade group has suggested that in light of the ongoing trade and tariff tensions, Canada may want to review its industrial carbon pricing rules. Thumbnail Photo: Pembina’s Redwater fractionation complex northeast of Edmonton, Alberta. (Source: Pembina)

LONDON (ICIS)–Raphael Jaumotte, technical manager at Petcore Europe, speaks to Matt Tudball, ICIS senior editor of recycling, about the Petcore Europe Thermoforms Conference on 27-28 May in Dijon, France. Details of the event can be found via Petcore’s website. Petcore Europe’s third dedicated thermoforming conference will focus on PET thermoform circularity, and ask: ‘How can collection and sorting of PET thermoforms be improved?’ Topics discussed include: Petcore Europe’s work in connecting the thermoforming industry Challenges of sorting and collection Impact of regulation on the thermoforming market The need for collaboration in the industry New offerings and services that have come out of industry discussions

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: FD NWE bale, flake and food-grade pellet prices rise for May Eastern, southern Europe and UK colourless flake also up Recyclers question how long current levels can be sustained

LONDON (ICIS)–Premiums for used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME) were under pressure following a controversial move from the German government to release previously-blocked proof of sustainability (POS) certificates from a suspended hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) producer. Price impact on the spot European biodiesel market, more specifically on UCOME, materialized quickly with sharp drops over the two days since the news emerged on Tuesday. In an official statement,  the federal office of agriculture and food (BLE) said that following an investigation, it held “a strong suspicion that the HVO producer does not exist”, but made the decision to validate the POS certificates. The tickets are used to verify the sustainability of a biofuel. One source highlighted a significant market impact following the re-entry of the controversial tickets, adding that prices collapsed in a short span of two days. “It killed the UCOME market,” said the market source. Spot premiums for UCOME over gasoil dropped by US$ 75/tonne week on week, to reach US$ 780-790/tonne FOB ARA. A second player agreed the market had been “quite weak” since the news came out. A BLE press officer told ICIS on Friday the unblocking of the POS certificates takes “into account the possible protection of confidence” in line with the Biofuels Sustainability Ordinance, known in Germany as Biokraft-NachV. Controversy emerged as market participants voiced concerns over the release of the previously suspended proof of sustainability (POS) certificates back into the market and fuelling an oversupply. Issues began to emerge at the start of the year. The investigation also showed biofuels sustainability verification scheme ISCC suspended the user’s certification in January. The government statement, published on Tuesday, also voiced doubts over the existence of the supplier which was meant to be based in the Netherlands. The HVO producer had been using the country’s Nabisy biofuels compliance registry, but its access has been revoked. In contrast, premiums for fatty acid methyl ester (FAME 0) and rapeseed methyl ester (RME) rose slightly this week. The German government said the Nabisy ticket scheme user, the HVO producer, used an address in the United Arab Emirates, but during an associated audit report had given a different address in Hong Kong. The impacted Nabisy users were asked to provide a “self-declaration on compliance”. The government statement also indicated further steps “in criminal law” were being considered.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s Indorama Ventures Limited (IVL) swung to a net loss of $39 million in Q1 on a year-on-year basis, official data showed on Friday. in $ million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 % change Revenue 3,487 3,812 -9 Adjusted EBITDA 276 396 -30 Net profit -39 32 – Production volumes declined in Q1, reflecting reduced output due to scheduled turnarounds at two Intermediate Chemicals facilities and weather-related disruptions from the US winter freeze, IVL said in a statement. Lower ocean freight rates and higher energy costs also contributed to lost profits, IVL said. There was a significant decline in ocean freight rates during the quarter, which lowered import parity levels and, in turn, weighed on product margins across the portfolio. Total production fell by 5% quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 6% year on year (YoY) to 3.27m tonnes, while sales volumes slipped by 4% QoQ and 8% YoY to 3.24m tonnes. The combined polyethylene terephthalate (CPET) with Intermediate Chemicals sector delivered adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $126 million for the first quarter, a 50% drop year on year from the same period in 2024. $94 million was used in growth capital expenditure (capex) towards recycling projects, residual capex related to the Mocksville site and others. IVL’s 2025 refinancing plan is on track, it said, with a focus on extending out debt maturity and securing lower spreads. The long-term strategy for the company includes three core priorities: namely, forging strategic partnerships, driving expansion in high-growth markets such as India and Africa, and maintaining financial discipline through deleveraging and targeted capital allocation. IVL said cross-border exposure is limited as the majority of their products are consumed within the same country they are produced, mitigating risk and economic uncertainty. The acquisition of a 24.9% stake in India-listed specialty packaging firm EPL is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 2025, IVL said.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook that in the near-term it expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive. The producer highlighted in its earnings release that global pricing was supported in Q1 of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports. CF said there is anticipated strong demand from not only global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, but because there is below average global inventories and challenging production economics in Europe. Looking at North America, CF said there should be strong nitrogen demand during the spring application season due to favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans, which is driving higher planted corn acres in 2025. The producer noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this season. For Brazil, the company expects the country will remain the largest urea import region, with imports projected to exceed 8 million tonnes, with this outlook supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production. In India, there is less urea inventory with CF saying that lower-than-targeted domestic production and higher year on year urea sales pushed urea inventory levels down by approximately 35% compared to March 2024. As a result, their management expects higher urea import requirements for the rest of this year to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks. Across Europe the producer is projecting that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. For China, CF said the ongoing urea export controls continue to limit availability from the country with minimal volumes concluded in Q1 of 2025. The company feels that urea exports will not resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest. In Russia, urea exports are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil. CF also is expecting that over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure would then remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. In the longer-term view CF is projecting that the global nitrogen supply demand balance will further tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is forecasted to not keep pace with the expected rise in global demand. Those needs are anticipated to have a growth rate of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and see more new demand emerging for clean energy applications. CF has a view that global production will remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US and UK announced the first trade deal since the US 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs which would open up UK market access for US chemicals, machinery, beef, ethanol and other agricultural products, government officials said. The deal also opens up US market access for UK autos, steel and aluminium, and beef. US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal in a press conference on the 8 May. While the deal will be finalized in the coming weeks with full details, officials revealed certain aspects of the agreement. Trump and Starmer spoke on the phone in front of the press, and then each ran separate press conferences. US tariffs of 10% on UK imports will remain in place but sectoral auto tariffs will fall from 25% to 10% for UK vehicles, as stated in the US press conference. There was an existing US tariff of 2.5% for imported vehicles prior to the sectoral tariffs, but the final auto tariff level for the UK would be 10%. This would apply to a quota of the first 100,000 cars, almost the total the UK exported in 2024, according to the UK government. The US reciprocal tariffs revealed on 2 April included the minimum 10% level for the UK where the US runs a goods trade surplus. In 2024, the US exported $79.9 billion in goods to the UK and imported $68.1 billion in goods for a trade surplus of $11.8 billion, according to the US Trade Representative. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium would be slashed to zero for imports from the UK, as indicated in the UK press conference. UK Rolls Royce aircraft engines and other aircraft parts would also face no US tariff. The opening up of new markets to US exports would add, “$5 billion of opportunity”, for US exporters, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. “Work will continue on the remaining sectors – such as pharmaceuticals and remaining reciprocal tariffs. But – in an important move – the US has agreed that the UK will get preferential treatment in any further tariffs imposed as part of Section 232 investigations,” said the UK government in a statement. In terms of a template for additional deals, Trump said that 10% tariffs is the floor with some much higher. OPTIMISM ON CHINA TARIFFSHe also expressed optimism that tariffs between the US and China would be lowered. The US has a 145% tariff on imports from China with some exemptions, and China has imposed a 125% tariff on imports from the US with certain reported exemptions.