Energy and chemicals consulting

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US East Coast were largely flat and rates to the West Coast fell by 5%, and the Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping of slots on 1 January, highlighting shipping news this week. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Global average rates ticked lower by 1% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Asia to New York were largely stable on the week while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to remain stable over the coming week. Drewry’s assessment has rates to the East Coast about $700/40-foot equivalent units (FEU) higher than to the West Coast. Online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos has rates to both coasts nearly at parity slightly higher than Drewry’s East Coast rate. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said transpacific ocean rates are about 35%-45% below peak levels seen in July now that the peak season has ended. He said upward pressure remains from stronger than normal demand as some shippers are frontloading volumes ahead of expected tariff increases from the new administration as well as the possibility of another work stoppage at US East Coast ports as the 15 January deadline to finalize a new collective bargaining agreement nears. Levine noted that Lunar New Year starts at the end of January this year, which is earlier than usual. The unusual parity of transpacific rates to both coasts may point to some shift of demand to the West Coast due to January strike concerns, Levine said. LIQUID TANKER RATES – USG-BRAZIL TICKS HIGHER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates was largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Columbia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting COA nominations. USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Bunker prices rose, mainly due to the increase in energy prices following continued geopolitical concerns. PANAMA CANAL TO ALLOW SWAPPING OF SLOTS The Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping and substitutions of booking slots between container vessels with some conditions beginning 1 January, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. The conditions are that both vessels must be the same type and must belong to the containership segment, both vessels must belong to the same vessel classification (Neopanamax, Super or Regular), and both vessels must be transiting in the same direction. Also, for swaps, vessels must have similar transit restrictions, and for substitutions, the new vessel must have similar or lesser transit restrictions, both vessel operators must belong to services under the same cooperative working agreement (Global Alliances or VSA), and the booking date of the vessels involved in the swap or substitution must be within the effective date of the services and of the Alliance or VSA. All other Long Term Slot Allocation method (LoTSA) and ordinary booking slots rules remain in effect. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

22-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)– European imports of Russian gas hinge on US or Russian decisions whether to allow payments for deliveries, a sanctions specialist told ICIS. Alexander Kolyandr, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former strategist at Credit Suisse London, said there are two options for European buyers such as Hungary and Slovakia to pay for  gas after Russian state-owned Gazprombank was sanctioned by the US Treasury on November 21. One option would be for the US to include Gazprombank on a general license on energy transactions,  which is regularly updated by the US Treasury and currently includes 12 entities allowed to handle energy-related transactions. Gazprombank, which was sanctioned by the Treasury on November 21, is not on the list but could be included if the US is persuaded of the need to do so. The other option would be for European buyers who continue to offtake Russian gas such as Slovakia’s SPP or Hungary’s MVM CEEnergy Zrt. to pay for the gas to any of the other state banks included on the licence. Nevertheless, he said, Russian officials may refuse to accept this because under a scheme introduced by the Kremlin in 2022, European buyers can only pay for their Russian imports via Gazprombank Luxembourg. Under the arrangement, buyers of Russian gas are required to open accounts in foreign currency and in rubles with Gazprombank. Importers would pay in a foreign currency and Gazprombank would sell it on the Moscow Exchange and credit the buyers’ accounts with rubles. If the US fail to include Gazprombank on the general licence, Russian authorities would be forced to allow European buyers to pay via other banks, which would be "humiliating" for the Russian president Vladimir Putin, Kolyandr said. “Nevertheless, the remaining buyers are all Russian allies, which means Russia could grant some flexibility,” he said. The sanctions include a wind-down period for transactions involving Gazprombank until 20 December 2024 and for those related to the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East until 28 June 2025. Nevertheless, if Gazprombank is included on the general licence on energy transactions, transactions – including payments to or from Gazprombank – could continue as usual but only in relation to energy deals, Kolyandr said. A source close to Slovakia’s SPP said the company was monitoring the situation and confirmed that much will depend on "how Gazprom handles the situation." Traders told ICIS on Friday that the news about US treasury sanctions on Gazprombank kept prices volatile on the final session of the week. One trader said, “it should be possible to pay Gazprom via other banks than Gazprombank” but that “the impact is not really clear yet”. Another trader said, “it is making people nervous.” TTF front-month prices tested €49.5/MWh in the early morning but retreated later in the afternoon, dropping below €47.5/MWh. Additional reporting by Amun Lie

22-Nov-2024

TORONTO (ICIS)–Fallout from the policies and tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump will inevitably affect Canada’s economy, in particular the manufacturing sector, according to Oxford Economics. US tariffs and Canada's retaliation Shrinking population Relaxation of mortgage lending rules TRUMP PRESIDENCY The President-elect has proposed increased fiscal stimulus, higher tariffs and curbs on immigration – all impacting Canada. The stimulus, including tax cuts and increased defense spending, will provide the US economy with an initial boost, Tony Stillo, Oxford Economics’ director for Canada, and economist Michael Davenport said in a webinar. Over the first half of Trump’s four-year term, the US stimulus could provide upside to the Canadian economy, “but not a whole lot”, Davenport said. As Trump’s presidency then progresses into its second half, the boost from the stimulus would fade and a drag from his tariffs would set in, slowing down GDP growth, he said. Trump has proposed to raise tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, and by 60% on imports from China. In the case of Canada, Oxford Economics assumes that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on about 10% of US imports from Canada, starting in 2026/2027, targeted at steel, aluminum and other base metals, and that Canada will respond with counter tariffs. US-Canada energy trade is not likely to be subjected to tariffs, they said. The impacts on Canada will be higher inflation. Canada’s central bank will recognize the higher inflation outlook and react by hiking rates in 2026, Davenport said. The Oxford experts think that Trump will likely use the tariff threat as a bargaining chip in the upcoming renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact. However, they would not rule out a more severe “full-blown” Trump presidency, with a 10% import tariff on all Canadian imports, leading to much more significant impacts – in terms of inflation and monetary policies – in Canada. “A full-blown Trump scenario”, and Canada’s retaliation, would be a negative for trade in heavy manufacturing sectors such as autos, base metals, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastics products, and autos, among others, Davenport said. While Canada’s manufacturing sector would be most directly exposed to rising import costs from the retaliatory tariffs, the much larger impact on Canada’s economy would come from weaker aggregate demand due to higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, elevated uncertainties and lower consumer confidence, Davenport said. As higher inflation and interest rates squeeze Canadian household budgets there would be big impacts on sectors such as construction and services, he said. Should Trump – contrary to Oxford’s expectations – decide not to go through with his tariffs, then his stimulus measures should be a positive for Canada’s economy, in line with the often-used phrase “What’s good for the US economy is good for Canada’s economy”, he said. However, “we think it’s most likely that Trump does impose substantial tariffs on countries, including Canada, and there is a risk there that tariffs could be more widespread”, he said. In addition to the Trump tariffs and policies, the course of Canada’s economy will also be influenced by a decline in the country’s population and by a recently announced relaxation in mortgage lending rules, the Oxford experts said. POPULATION Following years of soaring population growth, with nearly one million people per year added over the past two years alone, the Canadian government announced it would restrict immigration. Here is a link to a recent video in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explains the measures. The restrictions will lead to a decline in the country’s population, marking the first decline since the country was founded in its current form in 1867, Stillo said. The contraction in the population will reduce both supply and demand in the economy, meaning that the economy will shrink, he said. Over the mid-term, it will reduce the unemployment rate, lead to wage growth and to moderately higher inflation, he said. As the tighter jobs market and the Trump tariffs raise inflation, Canada’s central bank will react towards the end of 2026 by raising rates, he said. On the positive side, a tighter jobs market and a higher cost of labor should incentivize capital spending, he said. Also, lower population growth would ease Canada’s housing squeeze, he said. Oxford estimates that with a smaller population, Canada will need 3.7 million new homes to restore housing affordability by 2035, down from its previous estimate of 4.2 million homes. Stillo added that a likely change in government in Canada – with the opposition Conservatives ousting Trudeau’s Liberals – could lead to even tougher curbs on immigration. The Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals in opinion polls on the elections, which will need to be held before November 2025. Contrary to the government’s plans, however, Canada could soon face an unwanted surge in its population due to a wave of undocumented immigrants from the US, where the President-elect has committed to mass deportations, he noted. MORTGAGE RULES Recently announced relaxations to Canadian mortgage rules will affect not only housing but also the broader economy. Effective 15 December, the government will allow 30-year fixed-rate mortgages for first-time home buyers and widen the eligibility for mortgage insurance. The government also removed a “stress test” for existing mortgage borrowers who switch lenders. Combined, the relaxations will boost household cashflows and “unlock” a new pool of home buyers, Davenport said. They will improve housing affordability, driving up housing sales but also raising prices, he said. Overall, Oxford Economics expects the mortgage measures to improve household finances “in a sustained way”, starting as soon as early 2025, and it expects them to "be key in underpinning a pickup in consumer spending and a pickup in housing”, he said. However, while the measures will support economic growth, they will “exacerbate Canada’s long-standing household debt issues” – meaning that households will remain vulnerable to interest rate shocks and losses of jobs or income, he said. Canada’s household debt is currently much higher than the US debt was just before the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the Oxford experts noted. Shortly after the Oxford webinar ended on Thursday, the federal government announced new debt-financed short-term stimulus measures, valued at more than Canadian dollar (C$) 6 billion (US$4.3 billion), which, according to economists, could push up inflation. The stimulus includes a removal of the sales tax from a number of goods (including wine, beer and ciders) for two months, from mid-December to mid-February, and a C$250 tax rebate for 18.7 million “working Canadians”. (US$1=C$1.4) Thumbnail of photo Trudeau (left) meeting Trump in Washington in 2019 during Trump’s first presidency; photo source: Government of Canada

22-Nov-2024

– 4 LNG terminals expected – 10 gas power plants proposed – Robust growth market for LNG SINGAPORE (ICIS) –The Philippines is considered a robust growth point of LNG demand in Asia. It has a population of 115.8 million, densely concentrated around major city clusters that also drive the country's fast economic growth and industrialization. Natural gas plays a significant role in the Philippines' economy, especially in the energy sector, followed by industrial and transportation – 98% of Philippines’ gas supply goes to the power sector. Natural gas-fired power generation accounts for around 21% of the total energy mix in the Philippines. ICIS estimates the Philippines' power demand will grow at a rate around 6.7%. The primary source of natural gas supply in the Philippines has been the Malampaya Gas Field, which accounts for more than 99% of domestic production. Operational since October 2001, the offshore gas field has been declining from 2022 and is estimated to be depleted by early 2027. Consequently, imported LNG has emerged as an option to fuel the country's energy transition, backfilling the domestic supply gap and fulfilling fast-rising gas demand. Philippines began to import LNG in 2023 and received 17 cargoes for 2024 by the time of this article. ICIS Foresight expects the country’s LNG imports for 2024 to reach 1.17 million tonnes, twice as much its 2023 imports. Currently Philippines has two LNG receiving terminals. The first LNG project, Philippines LNG (PHLNG) operated by Singapore's AG&P, uses the ADNOC's Ish as a storage unit and onshore regasification equipment to supply gas to San Miguel Global Power’s 1,278 MW Ilijan CCPP (combined cycle power plant). The second terminal, Batangas FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) owned by utility First Gen uses the BW Batangas and fires four nearby power plants. The country has four upcoming LNG terminals that will come online through 2025-2026, adding a total regasification capacity of 10.72mpta. The government envisions another 3.98mpta LNG capacity to meet supply requirement by 2050. Construction for more gas power plants are also on the way. As of March 2023, Luzon alone has 10 gas to power project proposals, which will add 10.2GW electricity generation capacity accumulatively. (Yuanda Wang in Shanghai contributed to this article)

22-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-3% in 2025, as overall economic growth in its key trading partners is anticipated to ease slightly from 2024 levels, official estimates showed on Friday. 2024 GDP growth forecast raised to "around 3.5%" Global economic uncertainties have increased Singapore's Q3 petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year In particular, the US economy is expected to slow due to easing labor market conditions, although investment growth will provide some support, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement. In contrast, the eurozone will likely see a pickup in growth, driven by stronger consumption and investment recovery amid accommodative monetary policy. In Asia, China's GDP growth will moderate due to weaker exports from announced tariff hikes, but domestic consumption will cushion the slowdown as consumer sentiment improves and the property market stabilizes. Meanwhile, key Southeast Asian economies will experience steady growth, fueled by the upswing in global electronics demand. GLOBAL GROWTH RISKS WIDEN "Global economic uncertainties have increased, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside," the MTI said. Intensifying geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions could increase oil prices, production costs, and policy uncertainty, ultimately weakening global investment, trade, and growth, the ministry warned. Moreover, disruptions to the global disinflation process may lead to tighter financial conditions, desynchronized monetary policies, and exposed financial vulnerabilities, it added. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are projected to grow 1.0-3.0% in 2025, following a modest expansion of around 1.0% in 2024, a separate statement by trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said on Friday. "While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth," it said. 2024 GROWTH UPGRADEDFor 2024, the country's economic growth forecast for 2024 was raised to around 3.5%, above the range of its previous prediction of 2-3%, the MTI said. Singapore's stronger-than-expected economic showing in the first nine months and updated assessments of global and domestic economic conditions drove the upward revision in the GDP forecast. For the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth averaged 3.8% year on year. Singapore's economy grew 5.4% year on year in the third quarter of this year, up from the advanced estimates of 4.1%. In terms of trade, Singapore's petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year in the third quarter, slowing from the 14.9% expansion in the preceding three months. Singapore's NODX grew by 9.2% year on year on year in the third quarter, swinging from the 6.5% contraction in the preceding three months. Singapore serves as a major petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with its Jurong Island hub hosting over 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

22-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Next year's annual summit of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) will take place in Cancun, Mexico, the organizers confirmed on Thursday. APLA 2025 will take place in November 2025 in the Mexican resort city in Cancun, Mexico. According to APLA, 940 delegates registered for this year's annual summit, which concluded on Thursday in Cartagena, Colombia. That figure represented an increase of 4.4% compared to the 900 registered attendees at last year's annual summit in Sao Paulo. "In 2024, we have had a record number of registered delegates as well as of participating companies, with 350 firms," said APLA's director general, Manuel Diaz. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia.

21-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. “External threats are happening in a more frequent manner. So it’s harder for companies to plan and organize logistics and do just-in-time (JIT),” said Natalia Gil Betancourt, economic research leader at the Port of Cartagena. “Because of the armed conflict in the Red Sea, cargoes take 10-14 days longer and that has an impact and cost transferred to the end consumer,” she added. Trade wars and tariffs, part of deglobalization, along with reshoring, will also generate higher costs for the consumer, she noted. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal Authority, which has been hit by drought in late 2022 through 2024, will be under pressure to generate more revenue for the country, said Gabriel Mariscal, business manager – ship agency division at port agency services provider CB Fenton. “Strong El Ninos now occur more often – not once in 20 years. Droughts are more frequent. With climate, you don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Mariscal. Betancourt and Mariscal spoke on a panel at the APLA Annual Meeting. Droughts took down Panama Canal transits from 36 per day, to just around 18 during the worst point, he noted. The Panama Canal Authority is likely to consider new rules to raise profitability, including segmenting prices by type of vessel or even by emissions, he said. Meanwhile, ports are strategic convergence points and should work with industries such as chemicals as strategic partners, said Betancourt. “Anticipating things is very complicated. For example, COVID was a Black Swan event. Another issue is the rearranging of supply chains. Shipping agencies are also reorganizing networks and strategic pathways. All this will impact availability and cost,” said Betancourt. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Thumbnail image shows a container ship passing through the Panama Canal. Courtesy the Panama Canal Authority

21-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could make a decision any day that would allow California to adopt an aggressive electric vehicle program, triggering similar programs in 12 other states and territories that will likely become the target for repeal under President-Elect Donald Trump. During his campaign, Trump has expressed opposition to policies that favor one drive-train technology over another, saying that he would  "cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations". California's EV program is called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), and it works by requiring EVs, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids to make up an ever-increasing share of the state's auto sales. Other programs that encourage the adoption of EVs could be more vulnerable to repeal and rollbacks under Trump ACC II COULD BOOST EV DEMAND IN 13 STATESBefore California can adopt its ACC II program for EVs, it needs the EPA to grant it a waiver from the US Clean Air Act.  The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said it is expecting a decision from the EPA at any time. If the EPA receives the waiver, then it will trigger the adoption of similar ACC II programs the following states and territories. The figures in parentheses represent each state's share of light-vehicle registrations. California (11.6%) New York (5.6%) Colorado (1.8%) Oregon (1.0%) Delaware (0.3%) Rhode Island (0.3%) Maryland (1.8%) Vermont (0.3%) Massachusetts (2.1%) Washington (1.9%) New Jersey (3.4%) Washington DC (not available) New Mexico (0.5) Source: CARB In total, the 13 states and territories represent at least 30.6% of US light-vehicle registrations, according to CARB. HOW THE ACCII SUPPORTS EV DEMANDThe following chart shows the share of electric-based vehicles that would need to be sold in California by model year under the state's ACC II regulations. Programs in other states and territories have similar targets. ZEV stands for zero-emission vehicle and includes EVs and vehicles with fuel cells Source: California Air Resources Board REPEALING THE ACC IIThe key to California's ACC II programs is the EPA's decision to grant it a waiver to the Clean Air Act. Trump will likely revoke that waiver if it is granted before he takes office, according to the law firm Gibson Dunn. It expects that California will respond by threatening to retroactively enforce the ACC II program once a friendlier president takes office after Trump's term ends in four years. Auto makers could choose to take California's threat seriously and reach an agreement with the state. A similar scenario unfolded during Trump's first term of office in 2016-2020 that involved California's earlier Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, according to Gibson Dunn. That program also required a waiver from the EPA, and the dispute was resolved only after Joe Biden restored the waiver after becoming president in 2021. For the possible dispute over the ACC II program, it could take the courts determine whether California can retroactively enforce the program. FEDERAL PROGRAMS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO REPEALThe following federal programs could be more vulnerable to roll backs under Trump. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These standards became stricter in 2024. A tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buyers of EVs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trade groups have argued that the CAFE standards and the tailpipe rules are so strict, they function as effective EV programs. They allege that automobile producers can only meet them by making more EVs. The following table shows the current tailpipe rule. Figures are listed in grams of CO2 emitted per mile driven. 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Cars 131 139 125 112 99 86 73 Trucks 184 184 165 146 128 109 90 Total Fleet 168 170 153 136 119 102 85 Source: EPA The following table shows the fuel efficiency standards under the current CAFE program. Figures are in miles/gallon. 2022 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Passenger cars 44.1 60.0 61.2 62.5 63.7 65.1 Light trucks 32.1 42.6 42.6 43.5 44.3 45.2 Light vehicles 35.8 47.3 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.4 Source: DOT Gibson Dunn expect Trump's administration will rescind the tailpipe rule and roll back the CAFE standards to levels for model year 2020 vehicles. That would lower the CAFE standards for light vehicles to 35 miles/gal. EVS AND CHEMICALSEVs represent a small but growing market for the chemical industry, because they consume a lot more plastics and chemicals than automobiles powered by ICEs. A mid-size EV contains 45% more plastics and polymer composites and 52% more synthetic rubber and elastomers, according to a May 2024 report by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). EVs also contain higher value materials such as carbon fiber composites and semiconductors, making the total value of chemistry in the automobiles up to 85% higher than in a comparable ICE, according to the ACC. The following chart compares material consumptions in EVs and ICEs. Source: ACC EVs have material challenges that go beyond making them lighter and more energy efficient, such as managing heat from their batteries and tolerating high voltages. Major chemical and material producer are eager to develop materials that can meet these challenges and command the price premiums offered by EVs. Most have EV portfolios and prominently feature them at trade shows A rollback of US incentives for EVs could slow their adoption and weaken demand for these materials. Materials most vulnerable to these rollbacks would include heat management fluids and chemicals used to make electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, such as dimethyl carbonate (DMC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). Other materials used in batteries include polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) and ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMW-PE). Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows an EV. Image by Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/Shutterstock

21-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Mexico’s nearshoring trend will continue, even with the prospect of changes with the incoming US Trump administration as the US and Mexico economies are growing more and more interconnected, said the head of Evonik’s Mexico business. “Mexico is the 14th largest global economy, and an economy geared for exports – not only to North America but other regions,” said Martin Toscano, president of Evonik Mexico, at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. Mexico is the 9th largest exporter globally and becoming one step closer to the 3rd largest auto parts manufacturer. It is also the leading business partner to the US, he pointed out. Currently over 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the US, totaling $455 billion in 2023. The US now imports more from Mexico than from China. The US in turn exported $324 billion of goods to Mexico, he noted. Key Mexico exports to the US include transport equipment (including autos and parts), medical and scientific instruments, electronics, machinery, and rubber and plastic. TRUMP IMPACT ON NEARSHORING “Trump 47 (referring to the upcoming 47th US President) is not going to be that different from 45 (last Trump administration). US and Mexico interests go beyond rhetoric,” said Toscano. “No region is an island – they rely on net inflows. The world is too interconnected to just switch off. Economies depend on exports but also imports,” he added, pointing out that the US is unlikely to reshore everything. Nearshoring is natural for Mexico because of its proximity to the US and the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) free trade agreement (FTA). But nearshoring is also distributed across Latin America, with other countries such as Brazil and Argentina ready to play greater roles, he pointed out. US President-Elect Trump has threatened companies – both in the US and abroad – that move production to Mexico to export to the US, with tariffs. However, the US holds over 40% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico, making it a major stakeholder in Mexico exports, he noted. “The US has a very important role… but there is also a significant European presence. There is a continuing diversification of the investment base,” said Toscano. Mexico also has FTAs with 23 countries – the 7th most of any country in the world – with access to over 60% of global GDP. This as well as increasing government investment in infrastructure and a growing middle class make it an attractive market for investment, he pointed out. “All this investment in Mexico has generated greater well-being – better jobs and income. This means people start consuming more for basic needs – food, protein, personal care products, cleaning products and household items,” said Toscano. The executive also sees a boost for US economy with the incoming Trump administration. “Simplifying regulations can be good. It can turn to a negotiation point when USMCA sunsets [in 2026]. This can make Mexico adopt certain [simplified] regulatory elements,” said Toscano. “With the Trump administration, Mexico has to take some topics seriously. Nearshoring is a window of opportunity, and if we don’t know how to do it, we will lose,” he added. RULES OF ORIGIN, DEAL-BASED WORLD At the APLA Annua Meeting, former head of Argentina’s central bank and current director of the Asia School of Business, Martin Redrado, said Mexico should be prepared for the US being much stricter on its “rules of origin”. Under the USMCA rules of origin, exporters must show that a product has a certain minimum percentage of components from the region (US, Mexico, Canada) to avoid import duties. Redrado said Latin American countries should now follow a transactional policy as we move from a “rule-based world to deal-based world”. This requires a transactional approach to negotiations. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Focus article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows the flag of Mexico. Image by Shutterstock.

20-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Construction activity in both the eurozone and EU tracked a mild decline compared to the previous month, according to the latest official data on Wednesday. Production fell by 0.1% in both the eurozone and wider EU compared to August, accounting for seasonal adjustment, with building construction the main lag on activity, falling 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. Monthly losses were offset by gains in civil engineering activity (up 1.4% in the eurozone and 0.6% in the EU). Specialised construction activity fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Compared to a year prior, overall production construction fell by 1.6% in the eurozone and by 2.0% in the EU with declines consistent across all sectors. Building construction accounted for the biggest decline in both blocs, falling by 1.6% and 2.7% respectively on September 2023's output. Civil engineering activity fell by 0.5% in the eurozone and by 2.2% in the EU, with specialised building activity falling by 2.2% in the eurozone and by 1.9% in the EU. Numerous petrochemicals and specialty chemicals are key ingredients in products used for modern construction, including adhesives, ad-mixtures, sealants, coatings, paints, flooring, insulation and water proofing. (recasts, clarifying first paragraph)

20-Nov-2024