News and analysis

HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook global pricing was supported in the third quarter of 2024 by strong global demand, lower supply availability due to natural gas shortages, China’s absence in urea exports and planned maintenance activities in the Middle East. The US fertilizer producer said that in the near-term their management expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive, as inventories globally are believed to be below average and energy spreads continue to be significant between North America and high-cost production in Europe. CF said for North America that while grains prices are under pressure from expected high crop production it is their belief that the fall ammonia application season for the US and Canada will be positive if weather is favorable. US crop returns for 2025 are forecast at similar levels to 2024, which is expected to support stable planted corn acres year on year. The producer said over the medium-term, significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, CF believes the global nitrogen cost structure will remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. Looking at Brazil the producer said through September 2024 that urea imports to the country were 5.4 million tonnes, 13% higher than through the same period in 2023. CF said Brazil is expected to import 2.0-2.5 million tonnes of urea in the fourth quarter due to forecast higher planted corn acres and nominal domestic production. For India the company feels there is significant urea import requirements remaining through March 2025 due to favorable weather for rice, wheat and other crop production as well as lower-than-targeted domestic urea production driving greater import need. Regarding Europe CF said there is approximately 20% of ammonia and urea capacity which was reported in shutdown or curtailment modes as of September 2024. The company said management believes that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output in Europe will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. For China the producer noted that the ongoing urea export controls by the government continues to limit urea export availability from the country. Through September 2024, China has exported 254,000 tonnes of urea, 91% lower than the same period in 2023. In Russia the company said the urea exports have increased by 5% this year due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including Brazil and the US. Exports of ammonia are expected to rise with the completion of the country’s Taman port ammonia terminal though CF noted that annual ammonia export volumes are projected to remain below pre-war levels. Looking at the longer-term view of nitrogen the producer is expecting the global supply-demand balance to tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is not projected to keep pace with expected global lift in demand of approximately 1.5% per year. As far as global production CF said it is expected to remain constrained by continued challenges related to cost and availability of natural gas.

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–SI Group completed another debt exchange, which led Fitch Ratings to determine that the company defaulted again, the ratings agency said on Wednesday. Fitch considered SI Group's offering a distressed debt exchange and found that the company was once more in restricted default. Fitch has since rated SI Group CCC, which is four notches above default. During the first half of 2024, SI Group saw declines in sales and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), Fitch said. The declines were caused by weak demand, destocking in 2023 and increased competition from new plants in China. Sales volumes should remain low and free cash flow should remain negative throughout Fitch's forecast horizon. SI Group could face a liquidity crisis, and it may need fresh third-party support within the next 24 months, Fitch said. SI Group makes specialty chemicals used in coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers (CASE) as well as in lubricants, fuels, surfactants and polymers. Other chemical companies are also coming under increased stress from low-cost imports. INEOS Styrolution plans to shut down a plant in Addyston, Ohio state, US, that makes acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN). Decommissioning will start in the second quarter of 2025. INEOS Styrolution is also permanently shutting down a styrene plant in Sarnia, Ontario province, Canada. That plant was idled earlier this year after complaints about benzene emissions, which led to a dispute with regulators. In addition, China, once a key outlet for North American styrene, has added significant styrene capacity over the past three years. Additional reporting by John Donnelly

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US LSB Industries said it was able to complete a successful turnaround of their Pryor, Oklahoma, fertilizer facility. The company said in a third quarter update that the investments at Pryor were focused not only on improving its reliability and daily ammonia production volume, but also included the debottlenecking of the facility's urea plant. LSB expects this effort will result in an incremental of 75,000 short tons annually of UAN output. At the El Dorado, Arkansas, facility the producer said it completed the construction of an additional 5,000 short tons of nitric acid storage which is providing the ability to capitalize on incremental sales opportunities not previously available. A turnaround at the Cherokee, Alabama, facility will take place this November and a turnaround at El Dorado is scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, with the primary goal being increased volumes. LSB said it continues to make progress on its two energy transition projects and is expecting to start producing low carbon products at El Dorado beginning in 2026 pending regulatory approval. Regarding the Houston Ship Channel project, the company said it has completed the pre-front end engineering design and is working through the results as well as engaging with potential customers and preparing to select an engineering contractor for the final study. It expects to start that effort during the first half of 2025 with completion by mid-2026. Looking at fertilizer market conditions the producer said the ammonia market is healthy, and pricing has been strong driven by many factors including tight US supply dynamics along with geopolitical concerns and extended turnarounds and outages reducing global inventories LSB also cited the delayed start-up of new production capacity in the US Gulf and an export terminal in Russia For UAN the producer said pricing remains solid due to low inventories in the distribution channel following both spring applications and summer fill program with there being historically low imports and strong exports As it looks ahead it feels there is potential pent-up demand at the retailer and producer level which could lead to favorable order volumes and pricing in the first half of 2025.

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced it is awarding over $120 million today to fund six fertilizer production projects in Arkansas, California, Illinois, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin through the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program (FPEP). Currently the agency has invested over $368 million in 67 projects through FPEP which has an allocation of up to $900 million. Projects receiving this round of funding include fertilizer producer LSB Industries which will be provided a $77 million grant to expand production capacity of its urea and ammonium nitrate facility in Arkansas to 580,000 tons/year. The expanded capacity will allow product to be available to an estimated 450,000 agricultural producers within a four-state region and is expected to create 20 full-time positions. Another project will be at Agtegra Cooperative in South Dakota, which is receiving a $3 million grant to build a new fertilizer manufacturing building and install two storage tanks with a combined capacity of 950,000 gallons. The USDA also announced $20.2 million in awards to 26 projects through the Local Meat Capacity (Local MCap) grant program to expand processing capacity within the meat and poultry industry with a goal of lowering food cost for consumers.

30-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)—The UK government will support the use of mass balance for chemical recycling under the UK plastic packaging tax using a fuel-exempt accounting approach at site-level, it published in a consultation response late on Wednesday. The original consultation on “Plastic Packaging Tax – chemical recycling and adoption of a mass balance approach” was conducted from 18 July-10 October 2023. “Chemical recycling can complement the use of mechanical recycling technologies by enabling more types of plastic to be recycled and by producing a higher grade of recycled plastic, which can be used in regulated sectors such as food contact packaging. Chemical recycling therefore has the potential to help increase rates of plastic recycling,” the UK government said in its consultation response. As part of the consultation response, the government also announced that it will phase out the use of pre-consumer material as contributing towards recycled content thresholds in tax calculations. Under the UK Plastic Packaging tax, any packaging which is predominantly plastic by weight, and that does not contain at least 30% recycled material is subject to a charge of £217.85/tonne on the total weight of the packaging. When the tax was introduced, both chemical and mechanical recycling were accepted as contributing toward the target, but there was no decision on the acceptance of mass balance. In mass-balance, a certified volume of renewable or recycled material is input across a production run but may not be evenly distributed across each individual product. For example, a plant may use 30% recycled material overall, but one piece of produced packaging could contain 100% recycled material, and the next 100% virgin material, or any mix between those two extremes. Via this method, market players are able to state that they use a certain percentage of recycled or renewable material in their products, without having to prove that percentage in each individual product produced. Mass-balance is widely used in a number of industries and is not exclusive to either mechanical or chemical recycling. There have been different proposed accounting rules for mass-balance, all of which alter the possible recycled polymer output allocations, and therefore profitability throughout the chain, pyrolysis oil’s competitive position against mechanical recycling, and the sector’s attractiveness to investors. Under fuel exempt mass balance accounting rules, volumes used in fuel applications would not be attributable as recycled material, but material not ending up in fuels would be freely attributable across the value chain. Given that pyrolysis oil  – the dominant form of chemical recycling in Europe – is used as a naphtha substitute in a cracker, many see acceptance of mass-balance as an essential enabler for chemical recycling to count towards recycling content thresholds. The UK government will not adopt definitions of chemical recycling under ISO standard 15270:2008, arguing that definitions of chemical recycling must be process and technology neutral. “The government intends to introduce a definition of chemical recycling in line with the proposed definition by the European Coalition for Chemical Recycling, for the purpose of the tax. This will enable businesses to use a mass balance approach to account for recycled material produced from any technology or process that meets the definition of chemical recycling,” the government stated. The government also said that differing units of measurement may be used at different parts of the supply chain. For example, mass being used at polymer and packaging level, and a Lower Heating Value approach used at refinery level. The government further stated that accredited certification schemes will be necessary to audit and certify the mass balance volumes, and it intends to accredit multiple certification schemes. The government also signaled that while it is not currently making changes to medical exemptions under the tax at present it intends to remove this exemption once more chemically recycled plastic is available. “Producers and importers of medical packaging are encouraged to start considering how to include more recycled plastic in their packaging as chemical recycling capacity, feedstock levels, recyclate availability increase, and advancements in technology are developed,” it stated. There was no timeframe announced for when these changes would take place. Clarity on the UKs approach to mass balance will be welcomed by the market. Despite structural tightness of pyrolysis oil in Europe, buying interest in 2024 to date has been lower than that seen in 2023 largely due to ongoing legal uncertainty over approaches to mass balance accounting.  Legal uncertainty was one of the factors cited by Quantafuel in August for the cancellation of its 100,000 tonne/year pyrolysis-based chemical recycling project in Sunderland. On 16 July the British Plastics Federation (BPF) submitted a joint letter it had coordinated to the incoming Exchequer Secretary James Murray MP, calling for an urgent response to the previous government’s mass balance consultation. ICIS covers 3 grades of pyrolysis oil in its Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis Oil Europe pricing service . ICIS also offers mechanical recycling, waste bale, biodiesel, hydrogen, and virgin price coverage, giving you the complete picture across the sustainability value chain. For more information, please contact Mark Victory at mark.victory@icis.com.

30-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical trimmed its fiscal H1 to September 2024 net loss to Japanese yen (Y) 6.5 billion ($42 million), aided by sales growth of about 5%, while it seeks to rationalize operations to boost profitability. Return to profit expected for year-to-March 2025 IT-related chemicals' fiscal H1 core operating profit more than doubles Chiba Works LDPE output to fall by 20,000 tonne/year in billion yen (Y) Apr-Sept 2024 Apr-Sept 2023 % change Yr-to-March 2025 (revised forecast) Yr-to-March 2024 (actual) Sales revenue     1,241.4     1,186.9             4.6 2,600.0 2,446.9 Core operating profit           29.5        -96.7 – 100.0 -149.0 Operating income         121.2      -133.7 – 180.0 -488.8 Net income           -6.5         -76.3 – -25.0 -311.8 Revenues for the period increased on higher selling prices of synthetic resins,  methyl methacrylate (MMA) and various industrial chemicals due to higher raw material prices, the company said in a statement. Sumitomo Chemical's Essential Chemicals & Plastics segment posted a lower core operating loss of Y36.7 billion, with sales up by 3.3% year on year to Y403 billion, it said. However, it noted that earnings were weighed down by a deterioration in the financial performance of its 37.5%-owned affiliate Saudi Arabia's Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. Meanwhile, IT-related chemicals posted a 10% increase in sales to Y224.3 billion, with core operating income more than doubling to Y37.5 billion, on the back of strong demand for display-related materials and processing materials for semiconductors, it said. For the whole of fiscal year ending March 2025, Sumitomo Chemical lowered its sales forecast by Y70 billion to Y2.6 trillion, but raised its net profit forecast by Y5 billion to Y25 billion. The forecast marks a return to profitability for Sumitomo Chemicals, which incurred a Y312 billion net loss in the previous fiscal year. LDPE OUTPUT CUT BY END-MARCH 2025In a separate statement on 29 October, the company announced plans to reduce its low density polyethylene (LDPE) production at Chiba Works by 20,000 tonnes/year, citing declining domestic demand. Operations at a portion of the company’s LDPE facilities at the site will be suspended by March 2025 – the end of its current fiscal year. Sumitomo Chemical has an LDPE plant in Chiba prefecture with a 172,000 tonne/year capacity, according to ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The company expects this measure, combined with the various rationalization efforts that it has implemented thus far, to lead to improving the overall operating rate of the remaining facilities,” Sumitomo Chemical said. Japan’s LDPE demand “is not anticipated to have significant future growth”, it said, citing a declining population and an ageing society with a low birth rate. Sumitomo Chemical said that it is “accelerating business restructuring as part of its short-term intensive performance improvement measures”. Other measures include improving the company’s product portfolio “to cater to high value-added areas”, as well as working on fixed cost reduction at its remaining facilities, including a joint study with Maruzen Petrochemical to optimize operations of their joint venture Keiyo Ethylene. The Japanese producer said that it “will steadily advance these measures to ensure a V-shaped recovery in fiscal 2024, while also carrying out fundamental structural reforms”. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = Y153.3) (adds paragraphs 8-15 with recasts throughout)

30-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Economic growth in the eurozone accelerated in Q3, but remained flat in the wider EU, according to official data on Wednesday. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.4% in the eurozone from the previous quarter and was higher by 0.3% in the EU. In Q2, GDP grew by 0.2% in the eurozone from Q1, and by 0.3% in the EU. Ireland (+2.0%) saw the highest Q3 increase from the previous quarter, followed by Lithuania (+1.1%) and Spain (+0.8%), statistics agency Eurostat said, while declines were recorded in Hungary (-0.7%), Latvia (-0.4%) and Sweden (-0.1%). % change from the previous quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 eurozone 0.3 0.2 0.4 EU 0.3 0.3 0.3 On a year-on-year basis, Q3 GDP increased by 0.9% in both the eurozone and the EU. These initial figures are flash estimates which are subject to revision, Eurostat said in its statement.

30-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical trimmed its fiscal first-half net loss to Japanese yen (Y) 6.5 billion, aided by about a 5% growth in sales, the Japan-based producer said on Wednesday. in billion yen (Y) Apr-Sept 2024 Apr-Sept 2023 % change Yr-to-March 2025 (revised forecast) Yr-to-March 2024 (actual) Sales revenue     1,241.4     1,186.9             4.6 2,600.0 2,446.9 Core operating profit           29.5        -96.7 – 100.0 -149.0 Operating income         121.2      -133.7 – 180.0 -488.8 Net income           -6.5         -76.3 – -25.0 -311.8 Revenues for the period increased on higher selling prices of synthetic resins, methyl methacrylate (MMA) and various industrial chemicals increased due to higher raw material prices, the company said in a statement. Its essential chemicals & plastics segment posted a lower core operating loss of Y36.7 billion, with sales up by 3.3% year on year to Y403 billion, it said. However, it noted that earnings were weighed down by a deterioration of financial performance by its 37.5%-owned affiliate Saudi Arabia's Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. Meanwhile, IT-related chemicals posted a 10% increase in sales to Y224.3 billion, with core operating income more than doubling to Y37.5 billion, on the back of strong demand for display-related materials and processing materials for semiconductors, it said. For the whole of fiscal year ending March 2025, Sumitomo Chemical lowered its sales forecast by Y70 billion to Y2.6 trillion, but raised its net profit forecast by Y5 billion to Y25 billion. The forecasts mark a return to profitability for Sumitomo Chemicals, which had incurred a Y312 billion net loss in the previous fiscal year. ($1 = Y153.3)

30-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Super Typhoon Kong-rey is set to make landfall on Taitung County in the southeastern coast of Taiwan on 31 October, bringing heavy rains and strong gusts. At 07:00 local time Wednesday (23:00 GMT on 29 October), Kong-rey was on the southeast of Cape Eluanbi, Taiwan's southernmost point, packing maximum winds of 173 kilometers/hour near its center and moving northwest, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA). Typhoon warnings have been issued by the CWA for Pingtung County, Hualien County and Taitung County, all located in the sparsely populated southern and eastern parts of Taiwan. There have been no reports of major disruptions to petrochemical plants as of midday. An advisory of heavy rain or extremely heavy rain has been issued for Keelung north coast and mountainous areas in Greater Taipei and Yilan, the CWA said. Taiwan’s capital of Taipei is expected to be hit by heavy rains. The typhoon is most likely to make landfall in Hualien County between noon and evening on 31 October, the CWA added. Kong-rey is then forecast to cross southern Taiwan, enter the Taiwan Strait and head towards China’s southern coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) on 29 October. The typhoon is expected to weaken before it reaches China’s coast, but heavy-to-torrential rains can be expected in Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai and southern Jiangsu province from Wednesday to 1 November, the CMA said. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has urged people away from the mountains and coast. Disaster officials in Taitung County have asked fishers to return to shore and secure their boats, while ferry services to outlying islands were suspended. Taiwan, which is frequently visited by typhoons, was last hit by Typhoon Krathon on 3 October, leading to at least four deaths after it hit the southwestern city of Kaohsiung and bringing heavy rain, as well as causing widespread power outages.

30-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has extended its antidumping duties (ADD) on imports of ethanolamines from four countries, for another five years from 30 October. The extension was necessary to prevent potential dumping activities from damaging the country's domestic industries, China's Ministry of Commerce said on 29 October 2024. China's ADDs on ethanolamines from the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Thailand first came into effect on 29 October 2018. The ADD quantum remains unchanged as below: Country Company ADD rates US The Dow Chemical Company 76.0% US INEOS Americas LLC 97.1% US Huntsman Petrochemical LLC 97.1% US All Others 97.1% Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 10.1% Saudi Arabia All Others 27.9% Malaysia PETRONAS CHEMICAL DERIVATIVES SDN BHD/ PETRONAS CHEMICALS MARKETING(LABUAN) LTD 18.3% Malaysia All Others 20.3% Thailand TOC GLYCOL COMPANY LIMITED 37.6% Thailand All Others 37.6% In late October 2023, when the ADD period was due to expire, the ministry announced that it would conduct a year-long review following requests by Chinese participants. (adds table, with recasts throughout) Thumbnail image: At a container terminal at Nantong port in Jiangsu province in east China on 19 October 2024.(Xinhua/Shutterstock)

30-Oct-2024