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CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Mexico’s nearshoring trend will continue, even with the prospect of changes with the incoming US Trump administration as the US and Mexico economies are growing more and more interconnected, said the head of Evonik’s Mexico business. “Mexico is the 14th largest global economy, and an economy geared for exports – not only to North America but other regions,” said Martin Toscano, president of Evonik Mexico, at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. Mexico is the 9th largest exporter globally and becoming one step closer to the 3rd largest auto parts manufacturer. It is also the leading business partner to the US, he pointed out. Currently over 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the US, totaling $455 billion in 2023. The US now imports more from Mexico than from China. The US in turn exported $324 billion of goods to Mexico, he noted. Key Mexico exports to the US include transport equipment (including autos and parts), medical and scientific instruments, electronics, machinery, and rubber and plastic. TRUMP IMPACT ON NEARSHORING “Trump 47 (referring to the upcoming 47th US President) is not going to be that different from 45 (last Trump administration). US and Mexico interests go beyond rhetoric,” said Toscano. “No region is an island – they rely on net inflows. The world is too interconnected to just switch off. Economies depend on exports but also imports,” he added, pointing out that the US is unlikely to reshore everything. Nearshoring is natural for Mexico because of its proximity to the US and the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) free trade agreement (FTA). But nearshoring is also distributed across Latin America, with other countries such as Brazil and Argentina ready to play greater roles, he pointed out. US President-Elect Trump has threatened companies – both in the US and abroad – that move production to Mexico to export to the US, with tariffs. However, the US holds over 40% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico, making it a major stakeholder in Mexico exports, he noted. “The US has a very important role… but there is also a significant European presence. There is a continuing diversification of the investment base,” said Toscano. Mexico also has FTAs with 23 countries – the 7th most of any country in the world – with access to over 60% of global GDP. This as well as increasing government investment in infrastructure and a growing middle class make it an attractive market for investment, he pointed out. “All this investment in Mexico has generated greater well-being – better jobs and income. This means people start consuming more for basic needs – food, protein, personal care products, cleaning products and household items,” said Toscano. The executive also sees a boost for US economy with the incoming Trump administration. “Simplifying regulations can be good. It can turn to a negotiation point when USMCA sunsets [in 2026]. This can make Mexico adopt certain [simplified] regulatory elements,” said Toscano. “With the Trump administration, Mexico has to take some topics seriously. Nearshoring is a window of opportunity, and if we don’t know how to do it, we will lose,” he added. RULES OF ORIGIN, DEAL-BASED WORLD At the APLA Annua Meeting, former head of Argentina’s central bank and current director of the Asia School of Business, Martin Redrado, said Mexico should be prepared for the US being much stricter on its “rules of origin”. Under the USMCA rules of origin, exporters must show that a product has a certain minimum percentage of components from the region (US, Mexico, Canada) to avoid import duties. Redrado said Latin American countries should now follow a transactional policy as we move from a “rule-based world to deal-based world”. This requires a transactional approach to negotiations. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Focus article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows the flag of Mexico. Image by Shutterstock.

20-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Construction activity in both the eurozone and EU tracked a mild incline compared to the previous month, according to the latest official data on Wednesday. Production fell by 0.1% in both the eurozone and wider EU compared to August, accounting for seasonal adjustment, with building construction the main lag on activity, falling 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. Monthly losses were offset by gains in civil engineering activity (up 1.4% in the eurozone and 0.6% in the EU). Specialised construction activity fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Compared to a year prior, overall production construction fell by 1.6% in the eurozone and by 2.0% in the EU with declines consistent across all sectors. Building construction accounted for the biggest decline in both blocs, falling by 1.6% and 2.7% respectively on September 2023's output. Civil engineering activity fell by 0.5% in the eurozone and by 2.2% in the EU, with specialised building activity falling by 2.2% in the eurozone and by 1.9% in the EU. Numerous petrochemicals and specialty chemicals are key ingredients in products used for modern construction, including adhesives, ad-mixtures, sealants, coatings, paints, flooring, insulation and water proofing.

20-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–UK inflation rose in October to its highest level in six months, driven up by rising energy prices, according to official data on Wednesday. The consumer prices index (CPI) increased by 2.3% in the 12 months to October, up from 1.7% in September. Housing and household services, mainly electricity and gas prices, were the biggest factors pushing inflation higher, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The UK’s inflation rate has trended down since October 2022, when it hit 11.1% in the wake of surging energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its key interest rate twice this year as inflation eased, heading below its target of close to but not exceeding 2% in September. Eurozone inflation also increased in October, rising to 2% from 1.7% in September.

20-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Avantium has signed a multi-year collaboration agreement to pilot the production of polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) from carbon dioxide (CO2), with Thai producer SCG Chemicals (SCGC), the Netherlands-based circular polymer materials firm said on Wednesday. PLGA is a biodegradable, recyclable polyester which is an alternative for conventional fossil-based polyesters. "Under this agreement, SCGC will provide support for all stages of technology development," Avantium said in a statement. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed. "Additionally, SCGC will work with Avantium on developing various PLGA applications, aiming to bring these sustainable solutions to market." Avantium and SCGC have spent the past year exploring the properties of PLGA to perfect its formulation for large-scale polymer applications, with a focus on barrier properties, recyclability, and environmental impact. As part of the collaboration, Avantium grants SCGC an option to negotiate license deal to utilize its Volta technology, including PLGA production, within southeast Asia. Avantium’s Volta technology uses electrochemistry to convert CO2 to high-value products and chemical building blocks including glycolic acid. Glycolic acid, combined with lactic acid, can be used to produce PLGA polyester in existing manufacturing assets.

20-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Recently released data from the 2024 Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF) Global Commitment report shows brands continue to make progress against their sustainability goals, albeit at a much slower pace than required. The Global Commitment was initiated in 2018, where both private and public entities joined as signatories, agreeing to work towards several packaging sustainability goals including virgin plastic reduction, increased use of post-consumer recycled (PCR) content, elimination of problematic packaging, increased design for circularity among packaging portfolios and increased application of reuse models across packaging and products. Of the 140 signatories who contributed to the most recent report, 91 are packaged goods companies, packaging producers, or retailers, who account for roughly 20% of the world's plastic packaging. While these unified goals have demonstrated a positive model for collaboration and voluntary action, this latest report underscores the necessity of additional global policy to unify all packaging players towards a circular economy. At present, signatories are largely outperforming the remaining 80% of the market when it comes to positive sustainable actions. As with all complex problems, it requires multiple solutions. As stated in the report, "Regulation will not solve everything, given the highly complex nature of plastic and packaging waste. Voluntary business action will continue to play a crucial role in innovating, showing what’s possible, and creating demand for solutions". According to the 2023 packaging volume data, the weighted average of PCR content has increased to 14% from 12% in 2022. This is still far from the weighted average goal of 26% across the signatories by 2025. In total, these efforts amount to over 2.5 million metric tons of PCR having been produced and used in packaging in 2023, up from roughly 2.3 million metric tons in 2023. This is in comparison to the potential demand for over 4 million metric tons of PCR if signatories were to reach their goals based on 2023 total plastic volumes. Looking at the past several years of progress, PCR growth has seen steady 2% increases year on year, though unfortunately this pace is far behind what is needed to reach the ambitious 2025 deadline. At this pace, signatories would collectively reach their goals in 2029, which feels particularly poignant as many individual companies have shifted their timelines from 2025 to 2030 amid growing bottom line pressure and lack of progress. The report confirms as much, transparently stating that many signatories are likely to miss key 2025 targets. That being said, progress is varied among players, with some much closer or already having surpassed initial PCR goals. Per the report, cosmetic sector signatories lead with 31% PCR use on average in 2023, while food sector signatories are only at 10% on average. This could be due to the mixed regulation across the globe regarding food contact approval, as well as the different margin implications between food packaging and other consumer goods items. Even if companies do miss their goals, EMF notes that the Global Commitment has fundamentally transformed data reporting and industry definition practices, a success in itself. According to the report, 45% of signatories now utilize third-party data verification measures which further support data transparency and accountability. When looking at the progress across the other main goals of the Global Commitment, virgin plastic volumes have decreased as companies make targeted efforts to reduce their footprint, though this can also be attributed lower product volumes being produced and sold in the midst of a weak macroeconomic environment as well as carry over destocking from 2023. Unfortunately, only 32% of signatories with a virgin plastic reduction target have either achieved or are on track to meet their target. Bear in mind, these reports publish at a delay and thus actions towards progress in 2024 have largely already taken place, or in some unfortunate cases, have not. This comes as the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) wraps up the fifth and last Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee (INC-5) at the end of the month, with the hopes of having a global treaty on plastic pollution by the end of the year. It remains to be seen how signatories will pursue a final push towards these goals in 2025, amid an uncertain regulatory and economic global environment. Additional reporting by Corbin Olson

19-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Latin America stands at a crucial turning point as global economic and political dynamics shift, with significant opportunities in energy, food security and technological advancement, an economist said on Tuesday. Martin Redrado, director at the Buenos Aires-based Fundacion Capital, said Latin America is uniquely positioned to benefit from changing global trade patterns, particularly as the world moves from a rules-based system to a more transactional approach. The economist was speaking to delegates at the annual meeting of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). Mexico has emerged as a primary beneficiary of nearshoring initiatives, while South American nations including Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Chile are increasingly attracting international attention. The region's energy sector is projected to play a vital role in global security, with forecasts indicating Latin America will produce 11 million barrels of oil daily by 2030, representing 25% of global production, said Redrado. Brazil is expected to double its offshore pre-salt oil production, while Argentina's Vaca Muerta development promises significant gas production potential. The economist said regarding food security, Latin America's position appeared equally strong, with the region already controlling half of global corn exports and 60% of soybean exports, with Brazil leading as a major meat exporter. “Latin American will have a central role to play in food security. Today the world has 8 billion inhabitants, and it is estimated that by 2030 around 2.3 billion of those 8 billion will become middle class,” said Redrado. “The middle class consumes more protein, and clearly Latin American, with half of the total corn exports in the world and 60% of soybean exports, is well placed to cater for that demand.” Technological integration, particularly artificial intelligence, is reshaping traditional industries, said Redrado, noting AI applications in agricultural soil analysis, weather forecasting, and pest control are enhancing productivity. Similar advances, he concluded are being made in energy sector efficiency and construction monitoring. INFRASTRUCTURE STILL BEHINDHowever, infrastructure remains a significant challenge, and Redrado said Latin America must improve both physical and digital connectivity, including enhanced petrochemical infrastructure and better regional integration. The push for private sector participation in infrastructure development is growing, with negotiations ongoing for increased US involvement under the Trump administration. Summing up, Redrado said that as global tensions persist in Europe and the Middle East, Latin America's relative stability and strategic distance from these conflicts, combined with existing free trade agreements with the US, position the region favorably for sustainable economic growth and development. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Front page picture source: Shutterstock

19-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–On November 15, OMV Gas Marketing and Trading said Russia's Gazprom Export would cut supplies following a decision by the Austrian company to stop payments.  Despite the announcement, gas continues to flow, sparking questions over what lies behind the supply cut announcement and new arrangement.  In this brief Q&A, ICIS responds to questions based on information cross-checked with multiple sources in Ukraine, Slovakia and Austria. 1. Why did Gazprom Export cut contractual gas supplies to Austria’s OMV? Under Russian legislation, exports of natural gas are subject to a 30% duty, in fact shouldered by European off-takers. Sources familiar with Gazprom’s long-term EU contracts say the producer is prohibited from paying the levy itself. This means that if an importer halts payments, Gazprom Export is obliged to stop supplies. OMV Gas Marketing and Trading announced on 13 November that it would stop payments for Russian gas exports to recover €230m in compensation awarded by an arbitral tribunal. The award is to cover non-delivered gas in 2022. That resulted in Russia stopping delivering gas under the long-term contract with OMV. 2. Russian gas is still flowing to Austria. How come? Although OMV said on November 15 that Gazprom Export would reduce gas deliveries to zero from the following day, flows transiting Ukraine and Slovakia and delivered into Austria have continued as normal. Data published by regional grid operators indicate that gas is also exported on to neighboring Italy and the Czech Republic, although it is unclear whether the volumes are of Russian origin. Data verified by ICIS with multiple Ukrainian, Slovak and Austrian sources show that Gazprom Export continues to transit the gas via Slovakia up to the Austrian border. From there it is reportedly transferred to a western European counterparty which has a transport contract with transmission operator Gas Connect Austria. This explains why there have only been minor changes in nominations on the Ukrainian-Slovak and Slovak-Austrian borders. Considering the minor impact on flows and even price spreads, many market sources interviewed by ICIS have raised questions over whether this transfer had been pre-arranged. Neither OMV nor Gazprom responded to questions from ICIS. 3. How long is this arrangement going to last? Possibly until January 1, 2025 when Ukraine’s current transit agreement with Russia expires. 4. Are there other companies involved in this arrangement? This is unlikely. Slovak-importer SPP also has an import contract for Russian gas. Sources in the country say most of the volumes are transited by Gazprom and offtaken by the buyer on the local virtual trading point, however. 5. Has anything changed in relation to the transit agreement in Ukraine and Slovakia? No. Ukrainian sources confirm there were no changes in the transit and transfer arrangement. Slovak sources close to grid-operator Eustream say Gazprom continues to hold long-term transmission capacity at the Velke Kapusany border point with Ukraine. Gazprom’s booked entry capacity at Velke Kapusany amounts to 141,500,000 cubic meters (at 20°C). Exit capacity at Baumgarten on the Slovak-Austrian border stands at 138,500,000. Gazprom has booked transit capacity via Slovakia until 2028. 6. Following this latest transfer, has anything changed in OMV’s long-term import agreement with Gazprom? Based on public statements, all we know for now is that OMV is no longer off-taking gas under its long-term agreement with Russia. It is possible that following the arbitration award and OMV’s subsequent refusal to pay for supplies, Gazprom would not resume contractual deliveries under the terms of the agreement. This is due to expire in 2040. Events could also lead to the renegotiation of the contract, with OMV likely looking to shorten the duration of the deal and reduce imports. OMV is under pressure by the Austrian government as well as the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and has taken steps to secure Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG.

19-Nov-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–European chemical producers may have to keep paying high energy prices as geopolitical instability impacts sentiment more than the fundamentals of supply and demand. Europe spot electricity prices up 76% this year, ICIS TTF gas price up 40% Fear drives markets more than fundamentals which remain bearish Demand is reduced compared to five-year average, supply plentiful Above average temperatures forecast into December in Europe Gas storage around 90%, well above 5-year average New sources of US, Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) due onstream in 2025 Renewable energy will ramp up quickly in Europe Donald Trump may increase LNG supply by unfreezing projects In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS gas and cross-commodity expert, Aura Sabadus, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

19-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Although some locations still have some final acreage remaining, the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report is reflecting a completion of corn and soybean harvesting for 2024. While a final yield tally will not be immediately available, it has been discussed within agriculture and fertilizer segments as having been a more productive year – especially for corn – than was anticipated given the extremely hot and very dry conditions present this summer. For fertilizers, there is optimism remaining that over the next few weeks, winter will not quickly settle in and that weather conditions will be beneficial enough to see post-harvest applications gain more momentum. One product that is expected to see an uptick as long as there is no further rainfall is ammonia, with wet fields having been an issue for undertaking these end-of-the-year inputs through the first half of November in some states. The USDA did report there is now 77% of the cotton crop complete with the sorghum harvest having reached 95%. The next significant crop will be winter wheat, which the weekly update showed is now 94% planted with 84% having emerged. There is 49% of the crop rated as being in good to excellent condition.

18-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Latin American chemicals producers should be prepared to face a prolonged downturn which could extend to 2030 as newer capacities globally keep coming online, according to the director general at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). Manuel Diaz said global manufacturing is not recovering at the speed the chemicals industry would need for supply and demand to rebalance anytime soon, and Latin America – the quintessential ‘price taker’ region as its trade deficit makes it dependent on imports from other regions – must prepare for the most prolonged downturn in chemicals in living memory. Diaz spoke to ICIS ahead of the APLA annual meeting which kicked off on Monday. “This is pretty much what we are going to be talking about in the 2024 annual meeting: oversupply of products and raw materials, of ethylene. There are still many plants being announced, so it seems that at least until 2027, I would say 2030, the pressure on profitability is going to be very strong,” said Diaz. “Companies in Latin America should be prepared because, while new plants are still being started up, there is no sign of a world recovery strong enough to get there. A silver lining could be found in the fact that there is still considerable population growth: from now until 2050, we will have a growth in the world population like what would be, so to speak, adding a new India [the most populous country with 1.45 billion people].” Diaz, an Argentinian national, said he expects more plants will shut down in his home country as the national chemicals industry adapts to a more liberalized market under Javier Milei’s administration. In October, US chemicals major Dow said it would stop producing polyether polyols at its site in San Lorenzo, in Argentina’s province of Santa Fe, on the back of poor economics caused by global oversupply, while Argentina’s Petroquimica Rio Tercero shut its toluene diisocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba arguing the same reason. “I think we will see a reorganization in the sector, especially in Argentina. There will be some plants that are no longer sufficiently attractive from a profitable or product point of view – there will be a trend to concentrate on more profitable products,” said Diaz. “In the case of Dow, for instance, the plant they shut in Argentina was not the only plant of that type that it shuts down globally, that is why I think this is not a problem only in Argentina or Brazil – it is a global problem, a problem of competitiveness.” Diaz said we must think about China’s “differently” in order to understand the current downcycle, much of it related to that country’s overcapacities as its economy is not growing at the expected, pre-pandemic-like rates. “From our place in the world, we see everything as an economic curve and a capital curve, but the Chinese sees it from the point of view of a work curve. So, it is not a case that they are subsidizing the product itself for an easier sale,” said Diaz. “What they are doing, in my opinion, is subsidizing companies so job creation does not slow down – economic growth there is the priority.” He went on to reflect on how the globalization rates up to 2020 may have gone too far, adding the pandemic showed us how it was a mistake to focus on just a few countries – or just China, in many cases – as the main source for manufactured goods. – So, is the world coming back to a protectionist wave, like that of the 1930s? – “Now we see countries around the world thinking about how to protect their manufacturing sectors from China’s oversupplies, so maybe that globalizing cycle [up to 2020] has ended, the trend of setting up plants in the cheapest place and so on. I think the pandemic left us messages,” said Diaz. “Messages around the fact that we can't have a dependency on a single place from where all the electronic chips come from, for instance. So, I think it's not going to be just Brazil [where protectionist measures are enacted] but in many other Latin American countries – it is a contingency measure.” Finally, about the potential the new US administration under Donald Trump may impose import tariffs on Mexico, Diaz said “reality may end up surpassing” ideology, referring to the high dependance US manufacturers also have from Mexico’s manufacturers. The two countries’ economies became highly linked from the 1990s, when the first North American free trade deal, NAFTA, was signed. The situation did not change much after the first Donald Trump administration renegotiated NAFTA to give way to the current USMCA trade deal. “We have two new administrations in the US and Mexico. We will see what they end up doing, but what is clear is that there will be alternatives [to import tariffs being imposed]. Trump also knows that US companies buy a lot from Mexico, and in a protectionist spiral Mexico could also impose tariffs, so US companies would end up being affected as well,” said Diaz. “That is the reality that applies to everything, and that is why I say that reality normally surpasses your ideological vision: One thing is what I can say in the campaign, a different one may be what you implemented once you are in office.” Thumbnail shows money from Latin America. Image by ICIS. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

18-Nov-2024