Uses

The largest use for methyl methacrylate (MMA) is to make polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), which once cast or moulded, it is clear, hard, UV transparent and resistant to gamma rays. Another major application is in surface coatings. Methacrylate butadiene styrene resins are used as a modifier for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and in food and pharmaceutical packaging.

Supply/demand

With production running well globally, and the additions of new facilities in the Middle East, supply started to lengthen through 2018. This coupled with lower-than-expected demand, especially from the automotive sector, resulted in a global oversupply in 2019.

A series of production cuts, lower operating rates, and earlier maintenance stops were announced in the first half of 2019.

Oversupply has persisted throughout 2020, with operating rates lowered further, as demand fell during the coronavirus pandemic.

While automotive manufacturing restarted in May/June, operating rates remain low, with weakness expected throughout 2020.

Construction has held up better, which is a key market for MMA for both its polymer and coatings applications. There are concerns over delayed construction projects, and lower spending as Europe enters a recession.

Pre-coronavirus, market players forecast annual growth at 2% globally for MMA in 2020, with Asia leading. Global GDP for 2020 has been revised down by Oxford Economics to minus 4.8%.

The coronavirus pandemic has caused a huge surge in demand for polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) transparent sheets, used across the globe as protective barriers to prevent the spread of the virus. This is a new application for the sheets, with order books full for most of 2020 for cast and extruded sheet producers.

Some are also looking at investing in new extrusion machinery, in order to increase output, as plants are already operating at 100%.

Prices

Monthly contract prices fell over 40% from March 2018 to April 2020, with further decreases agreed for May contracts.

Spot prices fell over 60% from October 2017 to May 2020, from historic highs moving closer to all-time-lows.

The bottom of the pricing cycle started to materialise in March, until the coronavirus pandemic resulted in the crash in oil prices.

Feedstocks are expected to have a greater impact on pricing, given the lower propylene and acetone prices.

Technology

Many plants are based on the acetone cyanohydrin (ACH) route, but with problems in disposing the bisulfate waste, much effort has been spent on finding alternatives.

Mitsubishi Gas Chemical commercialised an ACH route that produces a hydrocyanic acid by-product that can be recycled. Evonik has further developed the ACH route by using a new catalyst and removing the need for sulphuric acid.

Lucite, part of Japan’s MCC, developed its Alpha process based on ethylene, methanol and carbon monoxide. The 250,000 tonne/year plant that came onstream in April 2018 uses this technology, with a further 350,000 tonne/year plant expected to be fully operational by 2025 on the US Gulf Coast.

Evonik also announced in late 2017 that would be working on an ethylene-based MMA production method. The methacrylate part of the business was sold, and renamed Roehm in 2019. Roehm plans to build a 250,000 tonne/year plant on the US Gulf post 2023, using the new technology.

Some Japanese plants use isobutylene or tertiary butanol (TBA). Evonik is using technology based on isobutylene in a plant in China. In the US, Eastman, Bechtel and the Research Triangle Institute developed a three-step synthesis gas process.

Despite the investment in alternative production processes for MMA, the ACH route will remain dominant going forward, with 58% of global capacity using this method by 2025.

Outlook

Global MMA demand was around 3.6m tonnes in 2019, with Asia accounting for 59%, followed by North America (19%) and Europe (17%).

Demand has been growing at 2.9%/year since 2015, driven by Asia (+3.8%). Growth in 2019 was only 1.7%, due to weaker than expected automotive demand.

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to lead to a 13% reduction in global MMA demand in 2020.

ICIS expects a full recovery to materialise in two years with a strong (+10%) improvement in 2021, to be completed in 2022 (+7%). Global demand is then expected to go on growing at 2.7%/year until 2030, driven again by Asia (+3.7%).

PMMA transparent sheet demand will remain strong throughout 2020, while automotive and construction consumption will take time to recover. ■